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Old 03-26-2020, 11:50 PM
Francis Vaughan is online now
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Adelaide, Australia
Posts: 5,319
I wonder if the current number of deaths can be a useful number to drive an estimate? There is a clear disparity between deaths and and confirmed infections across jurisdictions. One assumes that this is largely a result differences in, or simple lack of, testing. But deaths now should be a good proxy for infections roughly two weeks ago. Whilst it is hard to know infection numbers without widespread testing, it is pretty clear when someone is dead. Whether we have enough good parameters to both work out the historical infection numbers and then forward estimate I don't know.
My gut feeling on this that the situation is far from good.