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Old 03-26-2020, 11:53 PM
cmosdes is offline
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 2,055
Originally Posted by Stranger On A Train View Post
Without a representative sample across the population there really isn’t anyway to know to any degree of statistical certainty.

FWIW, I made a model of distribution a couple of weeks ago when cases started showing up in Canada, California, and New York based on the publicly available data from Johns Hopkins, and from the data at the time I found the R0 value to be at least 4 and maybe higher than 6, and the distribution not explainable without asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic carriers. I have a strong if anecdotal suspicion that there are a vast number of asymptomatic carriers and many others who attributed symptoms to mild cold, allergies, or fatigue.

We won’t know the real numbers or even have a good estimate until an antibody test (showing who has had the infection and developed immune response) is made widely available and data is compiled.

Would a seriously high R0 value like the ones you said, along with extremely mild cases, point to perhaps a quicker end to this? I remember seeing that herd immunity will start to help when somewhere around 50% (I think it was 20% to 60%) have been infected.

Just on an academic level, if huge percentage of the population already had this or will have it soon, will that help us?

Last edited by cmosdes; 03-26-2020 at 11:54 PM.