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Old 03-27-2020, 12:09 AM
Stranger On A Train is offline
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Manor Farm
Posts: 19,875
Originally Posted by cmosdes View Post
Would a seriously high R0 value like the ones you said, along with extremely mild cases, point to perhaps a quicker end to this? I remember seeing that herd immunity will start to help when somewhere around 50% (I think it was 20% to 60%) have been infected.

Just on an academic level, if huge percentage of the population already had this or will have it soon, will that help us?
No, it doesn’t change the mortality rates for untreated critical cases, and if we see the same kind of glut of cases coming to a head in a short period, as we saw in Italy and as we are now seeing in Spain (and will soon see in the UK, Sweden, and Russia, among other nations), the ability to treat new cases will drop precipitously to almost zero, resulting in huge mortality. We are on the same trend that Italy was showing two weeks ago, so basically we can expect a similar per capita number of deaths they are experiencing right now in mid-April. And Italy has arguably done a better job of isolation once they realized the extent of the problem than the United States is right now in most states. If Trump has his way of “reopening the country by Easter” all it will do is assure maximum fatalities in the people who have not yet been exposed.

If you want analysis based on the best available data, I give you Dr. John Campbell — Thursday, 26 March. “Let’s just say that it’s less than encouraging.” The dryly understated wit of the British in the face of existential horror.