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Old 03-27-2020, 07:08 AM
cmosdes is offline
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 2,055
Originally Posted by Stranger On A Train View Post
No, it doesn’t change the mortality rates for untreated critical cases, and if we see the same kind of glut of cases coming to a head in a short period, as we saw in Italy and as we are now seeing in Spain (and will soon see in the UK, Sweden, and Russia, among other nations), the ability to treat new cases will drop precipitously to almost zero, resulting in huge mortality. We are on the same trend that Italy was showing two weeks ago, so basically we can expect a similar per capita number of deaths they are experiencing right now in mid-April. And Italy has arguably done a better job of isolation once they realized the extent of the problem than the United States is right now in most states. If Trump has his way of “reopening the country by Easter” all it will do is assure maximum fatalities in the people who have not yet been exposed.

If you want analysis based on the best available data, I give you Dr. John Campbell — Thursday, 26 March. “Let’s just say that it’s less than encouraging.” The dryly understated wit of the British in the face of existential horror.

I'll watch the video a bit later since I don't have 30 minutes right now, but maybe that answers my question. I'm more asking about how long we'll be on the upside of this.

If we double every 4 days and need to get to 170M infected and are at 80k right now, that implies 40 to 44 days to get to that number. That puts us nearing a downturn towards the end of April, not an upswing as the original paper predicted. Your numbers seem to indicate a peak sooner. So the question isn't about the mortality rate, it is about the timing of the wave.

Last edited by cmosdes; 03-27-2020 at 07:08 AM.