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Old 03-27-2020, 07:46 AM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 23,997
To the OP:

Cited on these boards by several before is this Science article which estimated that in China at the beginning of the epidemic, before control measures, and then after.

First the before.
We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. ... These undocumented infections often experience mild, limited or no symptoms and hence go unrecognized, and, depending on their contagiousness and numbers, can expose a far greater portion of the population to virus than would otherwise occur. ... Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases.
They further felt that those cases were contagious for on average 3 1/2 days each.

The number of undocumented went down after restrictions went in place.

Unclear if the virus or the level of presumptive identification has changed since.

To cmosdes' question and Stranger's reply -

Yes cmosdes your hypothetical would change the curve dramatically, as would how we handle children in the models. The initial portion of the curve would be the same in all cases that do not include any control efforts, and yes, "the mortality rates for untreated critical cases" would still be as high, but the flattening out portion of the curve where herd immunity begins to play a role would be reached much faster and at a lower peak of sick people. Which control methods would be needed to achieve the avoidance of overwhelming the healthcare systems surge capacity would possibly be different depending on different inputs.

Last edited by DSeid; 03-27-2020 at 07:49 AM.