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Old 03-27-2020, 10:26 PM
Settimo is offline
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 78
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Cited on these boards by several before is this Science article which estimated that in China at the beginning of the epidemic, before control measures, and then after.
Thanks for the article.

So for an initial stab, just to get some idea:

Consider two (time) windows, corresponding to the two main groups ("bad" and "mild" cases). The windows are in days from (say) the day of infection, between first being contagious, and being taken out of circulation:
(a) for the conscientious overtly symptomatic people, between becoming contagious and removing themselves from circulation
(b) for the mildly/asymptomatic people, between becoming contagious to becoming non-contagious.
If I understand it correctly, the article suggests window (b) is approx from days 3 to days 6 from the time of infection. For simplicity's sake suppose (a) is as well (by approx day 7 they feel bad enough to start isolating).

So if we could get (or estimate) the number of newly infected people between 3 days ago to 6 days ago in a given region, and add those values up--that would be a rough est for how many are contagious and circulating.

(This question came up regarding trips to, say, the grocery store, where there can be hundreds of people gathered: how many (on average) might be carriers?)