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Old 06-10-2019, 11:50 AM
SamuelA is online now
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Join Date: Feb 2017
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Machine Elf View Post
There are ~400M cellular service subscribers in the US.

They upgrade their phones about every two years.

That's 100M phones replaced every year, so the total cost of your mandatory sensor program would be about $500M/year.

For public safety policy decisions by the US government, the value of a human life is set at roughly $9M.

Your proposal would have to save about 56 lives per year, every year, to be economically justifiable. This seems unlikely.

If you disagree with the numbers I've cited, feel free to substitute your own and redo the math. The number of people in the US who die every year from acute radiation exposure is awfully low, so I can't imagine any realistic numbers that would justify your proposal.
Good analysis and your conclusion seems reasonable. How do you account for 'black swans'? That is, a large scale nuclear war could be a fairly small chanceyet if it happened, these detectors would potentially save thousands of lives.