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Old 11-11-2019, 10:07 AM
Damuri Ajashi is online now
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 21,443
Originally Posted by RickJay View Post
My understanding is that Washington's offer has a lot of the dough as deferred money, so it's entirely possible Rendon could be lured away by an equal or even slightly cheaper off if the money is actually all paid during the term of the contract.

A huge $30m/year contract to Rendon will probably be a disaster. He's a terrific player, but 2019 was the best year he has ever had, and he's 30 next year, so the odds are very heavy that he will have no other years as great as 2019. The majority of huge contracts to position players are disasters. It blows up in your face far more often than not.
The current offer by the Nats is reported to be ~210 over 7 years. There is reported to be some deferral but not like with the Harper deal. If they are paying it out over 14 year then the deferral is worth 3.5 million/year off of true, which brings down the AAV to about 26.5 million. So maybe a shorter payout at the same price could entice him but who would pay that?

I don't think anyone thinks Rendon is anywhere close to being as good as Machado or Arenado so the ceiling on his AAV on a longer term contract is probably around 30 million. As long as Josh Donaldson and Moustakas are still on the free agent market, I don't know who will be bidding aggressively for him.

I think the following teams need someone at 3B and are in "win now" mode.

Braves will probably try to get Josh Donaldson back, I don't see them paying 200+ million for Rendon over 7 years.

Brewers will probably try to resign Moustakas and if they can't afford him, they certainly can't afford Rendon.

Rangers are not really a "win now" team but they might think they have some sort of home town advantage but they will not pay 200+ million.

And the only REAL contender for Rendon IMHO:

Phillies are kinda sorta in "win now" mode and have shown the willingness to sign big long term contracts that might outbid the current contract on the table with the Nationals.

BUT the Phillies starting rotation is very mediocre with 58 quality starts. The Nats and Astros had 87 and 89 respectively. I figure they need to pick up at least one of the star pitchers in free agency this season probably two. Pitching is way more important to them than Rendon right now.

Phillies ALSO have a pretty mediocre bullpen with 36 saves compared to the much maligned Nationals bullpen which recorded 40 saves (and the Astros with 47). Phillies probably need to beef up here as well.

Phillies also need someone at 1B, and they have to shuffle around their outfield.

I don't know how they can make Rendon a priority.