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Old 01-31-2020, 12:45 PM
k9bfriender is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2013
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truthseeker3 View Post
Suppose there is an incumbent you really want out of office. Suppose further that you have a chance to vote in Party A's primary or Party B's primary (but not both), and the incumbent is in Party A. Which primary should you pick?
Your hypothetical doesn't have enough information for a full answer. The simple answer is that voting in party A's primary would be beneficial, as if the incumbent doesn't get nominated, then you have succeeded in blocking them, however, while incumbents enjoy a very high reelection chance, their chances of being nominated are even higher.

Now, if party B has a knife edge of nominating a candidate that you think would do better in the general, then that changes things. You may have a situation where a substantial part of party B likes a particular candidate that has little chance of winning the general, while another, more centrist candidate has somewhat less support among the party, but stands a much higher chance of pulling people across the aisle and winning in the general.

As with most things, there is no easy answer, and it depends heavily on context and nuance of the situation.