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Old 11-17-2016, 06:53 AM
amarone is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Savannah, GA
Posts: 5,033
Originally Posted by Dead Cat View Post
I guess your second hand just goes to show even the (relatively) simple conventions can easily go very wrong. Bad luck.

On the first hand, how can responder count 13 tricks? He doesn't know that partner has the jack of hearts, does he? True, for this to be a problem the defenders would need to have a lucky 4/0 split in hearts, so it might be a good gamble anyway, or am I missing something?
You are right that it is possible that hearts are 4-0, and you are also correct that it is a good gamble anyway. A 4-0 break is only 9.6%, and even then you make when:
  • partner has the jack
  • partner has no jack but has the ten and nine
  • partner has no jack or nine, but has the ten and the 4 card hearts are onside

I make that a nearly 98% grand slam, so well worth bidding. And the odds are the same in no trump, so you should bid 7NT at pairs.