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Old 10-13-2016, 06:58 AM
amarone is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Savannah, GA
Posts: 5,033
Originally Posted by Quartz View Post
Really? With a maximum of 33 HCP, it would possible for someone to have an Ace and a King, possibly in the same suit. If that person were on lead, we'd go down immediately.
Yes, really. You have to evaluate how many tricks you can make and QJTxx Kxx AJX xx is clearly better than QJxx Kxx AJx Txx. Just to count 10 HCP and use that as your sole evaluation is wrong. If you add one point for a decent 5-card suit, you will not go far wrong.

Of course it is possible you will be missing an AK, but you cannot have perfection. Bridge is a percentage game. Put your hand opposite a balanced 22 points and it will make 6NT way more often than it will go down. I (electronically) dealt 64 hands where your partner has a balanced 22 points. You can see them here. There are no occasions where the opponents have AK in a suit.

6NT is a good contract on the vast majority of the hands (maybe all of them). I only analyzed the first 10. 6NT is 100% on nine of them and better than 70% on the other.