Thread: Joe Biden's in
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Old 08-26-2019, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Budget Player Cadet View Post
Based on... What, exactly? ...
The theory of his electability is based not just on polls that say he is electable but on the fact that he has been and continues to be fairly popular with several (not all) of the key voter groups: working class white voters (who Clinton did historically absurdly poorly with); Black voters (won't get Obama level but you need to get at lest Clinton level turnout and share); and voters from center Left to the center (which include many suburban and swing district voters). No one else running has the track record of favorability ratings with all of them.

The converse is that he does not do well with younger more progressive voters (with fears that they'll once again sit on their asses), and that he does not appeal to those who do not want a return to normalcy but would prefer a more disruptive non-establishment approach. But no reason to think he would do any less poorly with them than Clinton did after a long bruising campaign with Sanders, and every reason to think that Trump in office has been that wake up call that the perceived perfect cannot be the enemy of the good, that establishment is better than fascist and that fascism is worth fighting against even if the result isn't your favorite.

Is that theory true? Not sure because it depends on how a campaign plays out. And there are alternative theories to be made for why someone else might be more electable.

But it is not merely due to head to head national match ups more than a year out which inform little.