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#1
04-23-2000, 08:10 PM
 Guest Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: rochester,ny,usa Posts: 6
Hi all!

Three of us couples are headed on a retreat next weekend. We are staying 2 nihgts and rented two cabins since the maximum number you can fit in 1 cabin is 4 people. One couple will get to spend Friday night alone in the second cabin, while another one of us couples gets to spend Saturday night alone, leaving one couple out of luck. We are going to draw straws to determine the 2 lucky couples. I told my girlfriend that we should just draw once, and the loser will be out of luck both nights, my logic being we have a 2 out of 3 chance of having one night to ourselves. But she insists on us drawing straws twice one for Friday night and one with the remaining two couples for Saturday night. Her reasoning is that we have a 1 in 3 chance the first night and a 1 in 2 chance for the second night. Which way should we go?
#2
04-23-2000, 08:27 PM
 BANNED Join Date: Oct 1999 Location: Colorado Springs, CO Posts: 5,859
This needs to be in MPSIMS...

No offense, since you are new you will not be subjected to toe nail pulling just yet
#3
04-23-2000, 08:27 PM
 Guest Join Date: Aug 1999 Location: Alabama Posts: 16,594
Quote:
 just draw once, and the loser will be out of luck both nights, my logic being we have a 2 out of 3 chance of having one night to ourselves
So you have 1/3 chance of being the unlucky couple.

Quote:
 drawing straws twice one for Friday night and one with the remaining two couples for Saturday night
So you have 2/3 chance of being the unlucky couple for the first night. If that happens, then you have 1/2 chance of being the unlucky couple for the second night also. The chances of both happening are (2/3)*(1/2)=1/3. So it's the same.

Or you can think of it this way: whichever method you use, if each draw is fair, no couple has an advantage over others. And the results are the same - two lucky couples out of three, no more, no less. So the probability of being the lucky couple can't be different.

Good luck...
#4
04-23-2000, 08:36 PM
 Guest Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: Willoughby, OH USA Posts: 2
The odds in both case are the same. Using your method, the odds of pulling a winning straw in the only draw are 2/3.

In your gf's method, your odds of pulling a winning straw on the first night are 1/3, and your odds of pulling a winning straw on the second night are 1/2 * 2/3 (2/3 being the likelyhood that you'll even participate in the second drawing). 1/3 + (1/2 * 2/3)= 2/3.

What you definitely want to avoid is having Monty Hall hold the straws.
#5
04-24-2000, 12:11 AM
 Guest Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: rochester,ny,usa Posts: 6
This needs to be in MPSIMS...
No offense, since you are new you will not be subjected to toe nail pulling just yet

MPSIMS??? ummm i am sorry but not know the lingo yet
#6
04-24-2000, 12:30 AM
 BANNED Join Date: Feb 2000 Posts: 1,344
Just put all three couples in the same cabin and make a party of it!
#7
04-24-2000, 12:37 AM
 Guest Join Date: Mar 2000 Location: Bower Hill Battlefield Posts: 3,467
I am sick of hearing stories of couples coupling! Think of the CHILDREN! What will this do to them?

I am calling my priest about you degenerates!

[/sarcasm]
#8
04-24-2000, 01:15 AM
 Guest Join Date: Mar 2000 Location: Bay Area, California Posts: 202
MPSIMS:
Mundane Pointless Stuff I Must Share. It is thread classification (for want of a better term). You posted this in General Questions, or GQ.

By the way, good luck

-N

------------------
"Strider...I must also confess that you're one of the nicest atheists I've met."
#9
04-24-2000, 02:18 AM
 BANNED Join Date: Jan 2000 Location: Madison WI Posts: 22,505
[hijack]

Perhaps the moderators should be the ones who decide in what category a thread belongs. Since no one but a moderator has the power to move a thread, is it really terribly helpful for a non-moderator to post "this belongs in ______"? The OP posits a probability question. I scan the list of threads in GQ and lo and behold there are a lot of probability questions. Life's tough enough without worrying about stuff over which you have no control. Lighten up.

[/hijack]
#10
04-24-2000, 08:12 AM
 Charter Member Join Date: Oct 1999 Location: Betwixt My Ears Posts: 12,781
Yeah. What Otto said.

------------------
If you want to kiss the sky, you'd better learn how to kneel.
#11
04-24-2000, 10:28 AM
 Guest Join Date: Jan 2000 Posts: 1,581
Ditto, Otto.

Ditto Otto

Dittootto

DiTtOoTto

heh.
#12
04-24-2000, 01:18 PM
 Guest Join Date: May 1999 Location: Havertown, PA USA Posts: 1,747
This is easy. The score is:
Girlfriend--1
themightyquinn--0

You lose!

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