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Old 05-17-2019, 09:52 AM
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The effect a Ginsburg vacancy would have on the 2020 election


The Republicans were mostly listless and a dead ship in the water last year until the Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation battle, which revved up much of the base and sent Republicans to the polls at a rate 25% higher than normal GOP turnout for a midterm (if I recall right.)

With the recent anti-abortion laws (which likely still won't have their moment in the Supreme Court until after 2020,) a Ginsburg departure from the Supreme Court prior to Election Day would be immensely consequential. It could give pro-lifers the majority they need to overturn Roe (assuming Roberts won't overturn) - along with, of course, all the other consequences that arise as a result of replacing the Court's most liberal justice with a Gorsuch type.

I think such a Ginsburg departure would be more likely to revv up Democratic voters, though, because the Alabama and Georgia laws are so severe that they aren't popular with even many Republicans. Nonetheless, the Supreme Court was perhaps the biggest issue dear to Trump voters in 2016 and an opportunity to fill in another vacancy would remind many Trumpers of why they want(ed) Trump.
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Old 05-17-2019, 10:19 AM
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I would bet she is not going to quit before 2020 unless she is very ill. And even then she may not quit. If a Dem wins in 2020 and the Senate stays in GOP control, they probably won't confirm anyone leaving the seat empty. .
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Old 05-17-2019, 10:41 AM
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I suspect the Republicans would push hard to nominate & confirm a conservative justice, either prior to the election or during the lame duck session, at least if they thought there was a risk of them losing the White House or the Senate (and there is a risk).
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Old 05-17-2019, 10:43 AM
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I suspect the Republicans would push hard to nominate & confirm a conservative justice, either prior to the election or during the lame duck session, at least if they thought there was a risk of them losing the White House or the Senate (and there is a risk).
Yeah, I'd say there is a risk.
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Old 05-17-2019, 11:30 AM
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I suspect the Republicans would push hard to nominate & confirm a conservative justice, either prior to the election or during the lame duck session, at least if they thought there was a risk of them losing the White House or the Senate (and there is a risk).
Of course it will happen, but it also would happen if Clarence Thomas died.

The only difference it would make is how many more anti-Trump voters would be fired up enough to vote. And I can't believe there is anyone on either side who cares about the Supreme Court who isn't already fired up.
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Old 05-17-2019, 11:49 AM
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Well if she dies or steps down in 2020, we'll just have to wait until January 2021 since we simply don't confirm justices in election years. Mitch McConnell said so himself. And he wouldn't lie, would he? WOULD HE?!

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 05-17-2019 at 11:51 AM.
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Old 05-17-2019, 02:44 PM
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There's a saying that people are more motivated to avoid what they fear than gain what they desire; wonder if this means anti-Trumpers would be more fired up to prevent SCOTUS from going further right than Trumpers are to push the court right.
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Old 05-17-2019, 02:48 PM
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There's a saying that people are more motivated to avoid what they fear than gain what they desire; wonder if this means anti-Trumpers would be more fired up to prevent SCOTUS from going further right than Trumpers are to push the court right.
In 2020, with a hypothetical Ginsburg vacancy looming over the country, it's hard to guess, but in 2016 most of those that said SCOTUS was important to their vote, voted for President Trump:

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Old Yesterday, 04:00 PM
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Well if she dies or steps down in 2020, we'll just have to wait until January 2021 since we simply don't confirm justices in election years. Mitch McConnell said so himself. And he wouldn't lie, would he? WOULD HE?!
Is it a lie if you learned your lesson and change your mind?
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Old Yesterday, 06:18 PM
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The effect a Ginsburg vacancy would have on the 2020 election


It would guarantee even higher turnout on the GOP side and give Trump a much larger electoral victory than he got in 2016. The principal reason being the right would see it as a chance to pack the court with enough votes to definitely overturn Roe and Obergefell, Lawrence v Hardwick and possibly even Loving and Brown v Board of Education, and establish the white, Christian autocracy many of them think they want.

There is a hateful, vengeful and racist mindset rising on the right and I don't see any reason to think it is even close to cresting.
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