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Old 10-03-2019, 02:07 AM
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How Should Pelosi Conduct the Presidency?


I am starting to see Pence implicated in the Ukraine impeachment scandal. If Trump and Pence get impeached simultaneously, Speaker Pelosi is 3rd in line to become president.

How should she handle the office? I can see spiking-the-football Nancy: "McConnell stole a SCOTUS nomination, and now we are stealing the White House!" It would be provocative to call it "stealing" since the whole process is entirely legal and avoidable if the current occupants don't commit high crimes and misdemeanors, and also because incredulous Magas would not be able to do anything whatsoever about it.

I can see Ford Nancy: "I humbly accept that I was not elected to this office, and therefore am not planning any major policy initiatives." But, yeah right.

I can see I'm Still the Same Old Nancy: Talks the same. Acts the same. Dresses the same. Just like she is as Speaker. But, if she leads an impeachment investigation that results in yoinking the White House away from the pubbies and installing herself there, it will go down as one of the most famous political moves of all time. She's not an egomaniac I don't think, but it is hard to imagine acting as if nothing big just happened.

I can devise wrong hypotheticals, but right this moment anyway I am not imagining how that actually could/should play out. Maybe some dopers want to take a crack at it.
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Old 10-03-2019, 02:18 AM
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...not gonna happen. Not even worth while theorizing about it. Pence doesn't just have to get impeached. He has to get removed. And while there is an ever-so-slim chance the Senate might remove Trump, they won't remove Pence. They wouldn't hand over the reigns to the Dems. Not gonna happen.
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Old 10-03-2019, 02:29 AM
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But, doesn't the law apply to Pence? The alternative is to have an honest-to-God criminal cabal running the country. How is that supposed to work?
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:26 AM
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But, doesn't the law apply to Pence?
...of course it does.

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The alternative is to have an honest-to-God criminal cabal running the country.
We have that now. People have been yelling this out since 2016. Sarah Kendzior puts it bluntly:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarah Kendzior
"We have a transnational crime syndicate masquerading as a government. This is not a secret. We have seen the indictments, we've seen the panicked protectiveness of the GOP even when confronted with Trump's most severe infractions."
https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior/st...737472?lang=en

This isn't an alternative. Its what you have.

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How is that supposed to work?
The way that its working now?

If both Trump and Pence are impeached: they both still remain in office. Pelosi doesn't get elevated. If they are impeached then it goes to trial at the Senate: and if the Senate votes to remove only then are they removed from office. (Thats a really simplified distillation of the process)

There is close to zero chance the Senate votes to get rid of Trump. There is absolutely no chance they would vote to get rid of Pence if it meant Pelosi would get made President.

Its not gonna happen.
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:24 AM
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I don't see it happening. But if it did start to look like a real possibility, Pence would cut a deal and resign and the Senate would quickly confirm a new Republican VP with no connection to the various Trump scandals.
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:32 AM
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I don't see it happening. But if it did start to look like a real possibility, Pence would cut a deal and resign and the Senate would quickly confirm a new Republican VP with no connection to the various Trump scandals.
Two catches:

1. A new VP has to be nominated by the president. There's no way Trumpelthinskin would nominate anybody but an abject bootlicker.

2. A new VP has to be confirmed by both houses. The only kind of Republican with any chance for House approval is one of the few old-style honest public servants (Huntsman, perhaps).

Anyone capable of navigating past Scylla would be gobbled up by Charybdis, and vice versa.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:39 AM
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We have that now. People have been yelling this out since 2016. Sarah Kendzior puts it bluntly:
Well, they won the election with what I'll call a veneer of plausible deniability. Now though, if a couple dozen well documented and irrefutable Articles of Impeachment come down for both of them, and the GOP dismisses them in front of the whole world on the grounds of, "The law does not serve our interests", well, it seems like that could be fatal for the GOP brand. "Vote GOP- We're Bald-Faced Pirates!"

I can't predict the future. I grant it isn't the likeliest outcome, Justice being merely a word and all. But if Trump and Pence are both guilty of international election fraud, the right thing to do is to give them both the boot and install Pelosi. A certified and approved criminal cabal is a whole lot worse than an administration gone wrong and chastised.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:48 AM
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But, doesn't the law apply to Pence? The alternative is to have an honest-to-God criminal cabal running the country. How is that supposed to work?
The law does not apply to Republicans. We will see that when the Senate votes to ignore Donald's crimes.

Let's say by some miracle the right thing happens and we have President Pelosi. I think she would be very humble and earnest in her short time in office, Seeking to do the right thing and appointing an able cabinet. I think the transition from Pelosi to Biden or Warren would be the smoothest in history.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:52 AM
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There is absolutely no way the Republican Senate would allow Trump and Pence to be deposed in a way that leads to President Pelosi. They're not dumb. They'll find a way to get a new Republican vice president in. It's not like they'll press a button that deposes Trump and Pence and then be suddenly aghast like, "Whooop, President Nancy - how did we not see that coming? Undo button, undo button!"

Last edited by Velocity; 10-03-2019 at 10:54 AM.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:55 AM
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Well, they won the election with what I'll call a veneer of plausible deniability. Now though, if a couple dozen well documented and irrefutable Articles of Impeachment come down for both of them, and the GOP dismisses them in front of the whole world on the grounds of, "The law does not serve our interests", well, it seems like that could be fatal for the GOP brand. "Vote GOP- We're Bald-Faced Pirates!"
There is a substantial part of the US population that LIKE this. It's a feature, not a bug. They would like to see the Democrats outlawed and jailed, and have a single party, Authoritarian state run by a Strong Man Leader.

There is another large group who will not believe this. They will believe their favoured media, who will tell them that this is a partisan witch hunt, that Trump and Pence are completely, 100% innocent and were railroaded.

Finally, there is the largest group who don't even know any of this is going on. They are completely oblivious.

There is little danger to the GOP as long as they can get votes from these three groups.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Try2B Comprehensive View Post
Well, they won the election with what I'll call a veneer of plausible deniability. Now though, if a couple dozen well documented and irrefutable Articles of Impeachment come down for both of them, and the GOP dismisses them in front of the whole world on the grounds of, "The law does not serve our interests", well, it seems like that could be fatal for the GOP brand. "Vote GOP- We're Bald-Faced Pirates!"
...and your point is?

We all know this. I've been in favour of impeachment long before everyone jumped on the bandwagon. But what you've just written has nothing to do with your OP. A "decision fatal to the GOP" will very likely have an impact on the next election. But it won't make Pelosi President.

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I can't predict the future. I grant it isn't the likeliest outcome, Justice being merely a word and all. But if Trump and Pence are both guilty of international election fraud, the right thing to do is to give them both the boot and install Pelosi. A certified and approved criminal cabal is a whole lot worse than an administration gone wrong and chastised.
I'm not discussing "what is right." I'm telling you that Trump and Pence are not both going to get thrown out of office making Pelosi President. It isn't going to happen.
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:57 AM
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She should not. Pence will have some plausible deniability in whatever it is that would cause Trump to be removed from office. Sure, Pence listened in on calls where Trump orchestrated crimes but he didn't know in advance that was the plan and he didn't actively participate in the cover up. At the very least, Pence's crimes will be views as lesser than Trump's and so Trump, having moved the Overton window on the acceptability of public corruption so far, will have made Pence seem like a saint in comparison. Pence should serve as president until he loses the next election. President Pelosi would have no legitimacy since Democrats lost the last presidential election and Republicans would scream "coup" at the mere idea her taking the reins. Democrats in the House should take the high road and allow a Republican to remain in office. If Pence has stepped down or died before Trump is hypothetically removed from office, the House majority should agree to allow the confirmation of any moderate, centrist Republican as a caretaker until the next election, e.g., Gerald Ford.
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Old 10-03-2019, 11:05 AM
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I should also point out, there is no chance of it happening anyway. The Senate will not vote to remove a Republican from office if it means Pelosi becomes President. Removing one president from office would be viewed as sufficient rebuke to criminality that they would not feel compelled to repeat the gesture very soon.
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Old 10-03-2019, 11:06 AM
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Well, they won the election with what I'll call a veneer of plausible deniability. Now though, if a couple dozen well documented and irrefutable Articles of Impeachment come down for both of them, and the GOP dismisses them in front of the whole world on the grounds of, "The law does not serve our interests", well, it seems like that could be fatal for the GOP brand. "Vote GOP- We're Bald-Faced Pirates!"
The problem is that there are a lot of people who will refuse to believe any Republican wrong-doing occurred as long as the Republican in question denies doing it. So all Trump has to do is refuse to hand over the evidence of his crimes and then claim that the evidence he refused to hand over proved he's innocent. And his followers will believe him.

Sure, the House can go ahead and impeach him for withholding evidence and obstructing justice. He's guilty of those crimes. But his followers will refuse to believe he's guilty. So the Republican majority in the Senate will refuse to remove Trump from office and his followers will claim that's vindication. They'll be angry at the Democrats for attacking an innocent man.

The collusion is going to protect Trump. I don't think he'll be kicked out of office. And some of his followers - the Fifth Avenue crowd - will always support him no matter what. So the question is how good a public case the Democrats will be able to make and how many voters will see that Trump was actually guilty and only walked because other Republicans cover for him. If enough people see that then there could be a backlash against the Republicans in the 2020 election.

TLDR version: Trump's going to get away with his crimes. But the Democrats might be able to show that he got away with his crimes.
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Old 10-03-2019, 12:07 PM
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I also think that Pelosi is politically savvy enough not to try to impeach both of them even if she had a evidence to do it. She is having a hard enough time convincing people that the impeachment against Trump is based purely on partisan spite. If she tried to do both, it would raise the question as to whether this was all just a personal power grab on her part, tarnishing the whole prospect. So I think for everyone involved, Republicans, Democrats and the country as a whole, it is best not to have the stakes so high.
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Old 10-03-2019, 12:21 PM
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The only way that Pelosi becomes President is if one or probably both of them die. Which could of course happen, but it's unlikely.
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Old 10-03-2019, 12:28 PM
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If I try not to fight the hypothetical here... (I'm in agreement that Pelosi has about a 0.0000001% chance - and only if a meteor takes out both Trump and Pence at the same time)

Pelosi's first act should NOT be to just forget about the past, and give marvelous tributes to our now incinerated former leaders.
She should move to root out all of the stinking corruption that has infested the halls of power for the past two years. Investigate any and all crimes, conspiracies and cover ups. I expect Guiliani will be in a jail cell for the rest of his life, along with Barr and half of Trumps' cabinet.
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Old 10-03-2019, 12:44 PM
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If I try not to fight the hypothetical here... (I'm in agreement that Pelosi has about a 0.0000001% chance - and only if a meteor takes out both Trump and Pence at the same time)

Pelosi's first act should NOT be to just forget about the past, and give marvelous tributes to our now incinerated former leaders.
She should move to root out all of the stinking corruption that has infested the halls of power for the past two years. Investigate any and all crimes, conspiracies and cover ups. I expect Guiliani will be in a jail cell for the rest of his life, along with Barr and half of Trumps' cabinet.
Yeah, she should go all Oliver Cromwell on the lot of them. Now THAT would drain the swamp! But, if I were a betting man, I would place my hard earned money on an alien invasion happening over Pelosi in the White House.
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Old 10-03-2019, 01:26 PM
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She should move to root out all of the stinking corruption that has infested the halls of power for the past two years. Investigate any and all crimes, conspiracies and cover ups. I expect Guiliani will be in a jail cell for the rest of his life, along with Barr and half of Trumps' cabinet.
I think that's going too far. Let's face facts; Trump's probably innocent of something. If he's been accused of a hundred crimes, he's probably only guilty of ninety of them.

And if the House went after him for all one hundred crimes, Trump would end up being exonerated for the ten he's innocent of. And that would be the conservative talking point; how Trump was persecuted by the Democrats for crimes he didn't commit.

So I think the Democrats would be smarter to limit themselves to just the crimes where they know they have a solid case. Of the hypothetical hundred crimes, pick twenty sure things and nail him on all twenty. Twenty-out-of-twenty convictions is better than ninety-out-of-a-hundred.
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Old 10-03-2019, 02:19 PM
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There is absolutely no way the Republican Senate would allow Trump and Pence to be deposed in a way that leads to President Pelosi. They're not dumb. They'll find a way to get a new Republican vice president in. It's not like they'll press a button that deposes Trump and Pence and then be suddenly aghast like, "Whooop, President Nancy - how did we not see that coming? Undo button, undo button!"
I delineated my fantasy “Pelosi’s Path to the Presidency” some time last year. Someone makes a statement impugning the A-HFS’s physical fitness. In an attempt to respond to this, he accepts a challenge to run up the staircase to the top of the Washington Monument. Sycophantic Pence insists on completing the challenge with him (but he has to stay behind the A-HFS for the whole thing, because do I even need to explain why?). Halfway up, the A-HFS has the heart attack he’s been courting for several years. It’s survivable, or would be, but for the fact that he tumbled down some 450 stair steps, breaking his neck. Incidentally, he lands on the Veep, on the way down, squishing him like a bug (an incident which is NOT survivable).

A hastily-sworn-in President Pelosi declares a week-long national period of foot-shuffling, awkward throat-clearing, and not-directly-meeting-anyone’s-gaz-ing.

No muss, no fuss.

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Old 10-03-2019, 02:27 PM
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She should not. Pence will have some plausible deniability in whatever it is that would cause Trump to be removed from office. Sure, Pence listened in on calls where Trump orchestrated crimes but he didn't know in advance that was the plan and he didn't actively participate in the cover up. At the very least, Pence's crimes will be views as lesser than Trump's and so Trump, having moved the Overton window on the acceptability of public corruption so far, will have made Pence seem like a saint in comparison. Pence should serve as president until he loses the next election. President Pelosi would have no legitimacy since Democrats lost the last presidential election and Republicans would scream "coup" at the mere idea her taking the reins. Democrats in the House should take the high road and allow a Republican to remain in office. If Pence has stepped down or died before Trump is hypothetically removed from office, the House majority should agree to allow the confirmation of any moderate, centrist Republican as a caretaker until the next election, e.g., Gerald Ford.
Well done. You get 150 kaylasdad points for using the term “reins” rather than “reigns.” If this was Quidditch, you’d have just ended the match, and come that much closer to winning the House Cup.

Last edited by kaylasdad99; 10-03-2019 at 02:28 PM.
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Old 10-03-2019, 02:32 PM
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Look at it this way:

1. If Trump is guilty of high crimes and misdemeanors, should he be removed from office? YES.

2. If Pence is also guilty of high crimes and misdemeanors, should he also be removed from office? YES.

3. If 1 and 2, does the office of POTUS rightfully belong to Pelosi? YES.

The Overton Window doesn't change that- to say it does just gives Pence and the pubbies a licence to commit high crimes.

Do ignorant rednecks believe a lot of bullshit? Um, is the Pope Catholic? Just because people have been propagandized up to their eyeballs does not mean the rest of us have to accept a bunch of crap. Look, if 1 and 2, yet Pelosi does Not become POTUS, that right there is the real coup. That would be a complete usurpation of our legal system, thrown away because of, what? Learned helplessness in the face of GOP corruption?

I feel like once you start rolling over like one of Epstein's teen prostitutes, it can become a way of life. Let's not let the sheer volume and brazenness of GOP crime and corruption lend it a legitimacy it does not possess. If he is guilty, we CAN'T allow an international election rigging Pence to be POTUS. Doesn't anybody remember America? Democracy? Free and fair elections? Rule of law? We're going to throw that all away for a bunch of dumb excuses to acquiesce to the highest crimes?

Jesus. If we can't have real justice, at least make some noise. Don't just surrender.
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:55 PM
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Ford was the veto king - he vetoed everything!
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Old 10-03-2019, 04:03 PM
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Trying not to fight the hypothetical.

OK, wave a magic Democratic wand and tomorrow Trump and Pence are both impeached and removed from office. I assume it would have to be Pence first, so that Pelosi is next in line when Trump is impeached and removed. (Neither will happen, but let's pretend).

Now it's President Pelosi. She can declare "our long national nightmare is over". But she doesn't pardon anyone. She immediately declares that she is going after all the corrupt Republicans and get them all indicted and sent to Gitmo or something. The more she does that, the more it looks like a coup and the less legitimate her Presidency looks. Plus, she has only a year or so until 2020 and the elections - how much prosecution will she be able to get done while trying to get a VP confirmed and a new Cabinet and new Attorney General and new people in all the political positions? What's she gonna do, investigate Republican Senators? Congress does not take well to that kind of thing, even from their own - Congress is rather jealous of its own power and perks.

The last President who gained the Oval Office was Jerry Ford, and he lost his re-election bid, albeit narrowly and mostly due to his own mistakes. If the economy goes to hell, either because of the turmoil in Washington DC or just in general, Pelosi is toast in 2020. And half the country, not affected by the Democratic magic wand, is going to be peeved at Pelosi - her negatives are going to be sky-high, and she has very little by way of charisma to overcome that. I can recall another Presidential candidate with high negatives and no charisma who did not make it to the White House either.

If she just says she wants to be a care-taker President, and holds off on major initiatives until after 2020, she will cheese off the progressives, who will believe "God has given us the Papacy Presidency - let us enjoy it". They will want, not only revenge on the GOP and Trump and Pence and everyone else, but also free college and free health care and an end to global warming and a revamping of the economy (and lower taxes and more services and better governance and a strong foreign policy and less military spending and a stronger military and more affordable housing but maintaining home values and etc., etc.). And if all she can say she delivered was to grab the Presidency away from Trump, well...

Regards,
Shodan
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Old 10-03-2019, 06:12 PM
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Jesus. If we can't have real justice, at least make some noise. Don't just surrender.
...hey, guess what? Just because you started a thread that appears to be based on fundamental misunderstanding of what impeachment is doesn't mean we aren't out here "making noise." Just because we've pointed out that your OP is essentially a fantasy that is never going to happen doesn't mean "we have surrendered". Pretending Pelosi has a chance of becoming President doesn't make us fight any harder.
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:04 PM
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With Moscow Mitch running the senate, she would not even be able to get a cabinet approved. Pursue a progressive agenda? Hah!
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:49 PM
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Ms Pelosi can take the White House only if and only if Trampster and Pencil-dick are removed simultaneously -- peacefully or otherwise. What could happen? A sharp reveal leading to both losers resigning and running for refuge in Riyadh; terrible accident(s) and/or medical mishap(s); actual military coup, with much collateral damage; or worse.

We can HOPE a presidency remains for Pelosi or others outside Trampland to conduct. I am not optimistic.
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Old 10-04-2019, 12:03 AM
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The last President who gained the Oval Office was Jerry Ford, and he lost his re-election bid, albeit narrowly and mostly due to his own mistakes. If the economy goes to hell, either because of the turmoil in Washington DC or just in general, Pelosi is toast in 2020. And half the country, not affected by the Democratic magic wand, is going to be peeved at Pelosi - her negatives are going to be sky-high, and she has very little by way of charisma to overcome that.
Plus she will have thrown away the biggest advantage the Democrats are going into 2020 with - she wouldn't be running against Trump.
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Old 10-04-2019, 12:06 AM
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Someone makes a statement impugning the A-HFS’s physical fitness.
A-HFS?
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Old 10-04-2019, 02:25 AM
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...hey, guess what? Just because you started a thread that appears to be based on fundamental misunderstanding of what impeachment is doesn't mean we aren't out here "making noise."
I understand impeachment. The nub here is that people in his base will have to turn on OG for him to be removed. Same with Pence. Thing is, it looks like they might both be guilty of impeachable offenses. Big, serious ones. Maybe the pubs won't listen to anyone outside their group, but then again the crimes speak for themselves, and the law was written down a long time ago. If Pelosi is not installed as POTUS*, it will be one more example of willful, bad-faith malfeasance by the GOP. If one believes one's integrity rating goes on their eternal soul scorecard, being so relentlessly and willfully ignorant of the laws, and relevant precedent, and let's throw in empirical findings and formal logic and debating in good faith instead of hiding in apologia is going to leave a mark.

Which says nothing about how much noise some people are making. Sorry.

Quote:
Just because we've pointed out that your OP is essentially a fantasy that is never going to happen doesn't mean "we have surrendered". Pretending Pelosi has a chance of becoming President doesn't make us fight any harder.
You're saying, "The intended outcome of the law* is never going to happen." But, the third in line to the presidency is the Speaker, no? And the first two are guilty*, no? So who becomes president in that circumstance?
SPOILER:
The Speaker.

That everyone is just writing off the result of applying the law is absurd. Yeah, maybe the pubbies will once again prove corrupt and defend crime, but we don't know that yet and I want to talk about how Pelosi should go about it if the laws are applied as intended.

For instance, I always assumed she would retire in 2020. Others assume she'd run for another term. That's just the tip of the iceberg of different perspectives on how a Pelosi presidency would (and really, I want to look at should) play out.


*The process has to play out before anyone is found guilty, obviously. Some of what has come out looks damning, but we can't jump to conclusions at this stage.
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Old 10-04-2019, 05:22 AM
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I understand impeachment.
...I think you understand it now. But based on your OP I don't think you understood it then.

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The nub here is that people in his base will have to turn on OG for him to be removed. Same with Pence. Thing is, it looks like they might both be guilty of impeachable offenses. Big, serious ones. Maybe the pubs won't listen to anyone outside their group, but then again the crimes speak for themselves, and the law was written down a long time ago.
That both Trump and Pence both are probably are guilty of impeachable offenses should come as no surprise to anyone. The crimes do speak for themselves. This has nothing to do with your OP.

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If Pelosi is not installed as POTUS*, it will be one more example of willful, bad-faith malfeasance by the GOP.
Again, this is true, and pretty bleeding obvious, but not relevant to your OP.

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If one believes one's integrity rating goes on their eternal soul scorecard, being so relentlessly and willfully ignorant of the laws, and relevant precedent, and let's throw in empirical findings and formal logic and debating in good faith instead of hiding in apologia is going to leave a mark.
I don't even know what you are talking about now. I don't believe in eternal souls. I don't believe in "eternal soul scorecards." Nothing is going to "leave a mark."

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Which says nothing about how much noise some people are making. Sorry.
So why did you bring it up in the first place?

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You're saying, "The intended outcome of the law* is never going to happen."
Nope.

I'm saying what I said.

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But, the third in line to the presidency is the Speaker, no?
Yep.

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And the first two are guilty*, no?
In my personal opinion? Abso-fucking-lutely. But my opinion counts for jack-shit.

Quote:
So who becomes president in that circumstance?
SPOILER:
The Speaker.
The speaker is third in line of succession. But Pelosi had to be dragged kicking and screaming to be bought to the point to be able to start impeachment against Trump. This very messageboard had to be dragged kicking and screaming towards supporting impeachment. If the "left-wing-liberals" that populate this messageboard thought that impeaching Trump was a bad idea then they will fight tooth-and-nail against a Pence impeachment. And we aren't even talking about the trial yet.

Quote:
That everyone is just writing off the result of applying the law is absurd.
But that isn't what everyone is doing, and to imply that we are is simply absurd.

Quote:
Yeah, maybe the pubbies will once again prove corrupt and defend crime, but we don't know that yet and I want to talk about how Pelosi should go about it if the laws are applied as intended.
You are currently in the middle of what some would call a "Constitutional Crisis."

The norms have gone out the window. The norms got shredded when Trump got elected. We are talking about a bunch of people that in their first weeks in office couldn't figure out how to turn the lights on and off. This Ukraine thing? Its a fucking nothingburger compared to every-fucking-other-thing this administration has done that has been ignored, downplayed, or simply forgotten about. You've got an openly white-supremacist moron setting and running immigration policy. You've got Sebastian-fucking-Gorka accompanying the Secretary of State on his trip to Italy. The Attorney General is acting as the Presidents personal lawyer and the Presidents personal lawyer is acting on behalf of the administration.

Everything is fucked up. You are loosing the courts. You have ICE snatching people off the streets. You've got concentration camps. And here's the thing.

Now that impeachment has started, things are about to get worse.

The administration has already ramped up the propaganda. We can see that. But they have been quietly ramping up the propaganda that we can't see, the micro-target social media posts, email harvesting, all the tactics that turned the tide during Brexit and the last US election, that's all going on but almost nobody (except the people that are being targeted) is noticing. They are going to scale up the voter suppression efforts.

They are going to keep redrawing the lines in the sand. They will break the law right in front of you and dare you to do something about it. And the Dems and everyone who opposes them are woefully ill-equipped to deal with any of this. So "yeah, "maybe the pubbies will once again prove corrupt and defend crime." But we are so beyond worrying about what the pubbies will think or do and if you are still in that mindset then its time to reassess your priorities.

This is a battle on multiple fronts, but one of those fronts is not going to be one lead by President Pelosi.
  #32  
Old 10-04-2019, 08:01 AM
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The best approach for the Democrats is to leave Pence where he is. There is some small chance that some Republican senators with a spine will come around and vote to remove Trump. I don't think that's high, but it's non-zero. Assuming that Pence is the one to step into the role. If Pelosi were the one to step in, that non-zero becomes zero.

Let Pence get in there, and then weaken the hell out of him by revealing his complicity and then trounce them at the ballot box in 2020.
  #33  
Old 10-04-2019, 08:10 AM
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Great points, Fiveyearlurker.
But if Pence turns out to be truly, deeply guilty of initiating something really bad (not merely complicit), it would be mildly hypocritical of Democrats to fail to initiate impeachment proceedings, after having said clearly in recent days that (regarding Trump) they have little choice but to uphold the Constitution, even if this (debatably) might cost them politically.

But I think your larger point would override this minor one.

Last edited by JKellyMap; 10-04-2019 at 08:11 AM.
  #34  
Old 10-04-2019, 08:14 AM
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There is a substantial part of the US population that LIKE this. It's a feature, not a bug. They would like to see the Democrats outlawed and jailed, and have a single party, Authoritarian state run by a Strong Man Leader.

There is another large group who will not believe this. They will believe their favoured media, who will tell them that this is a partisan witch hunt, that Trump and Pence are completely, 100% innocent and were railroaded.

Finally, there is the largest group who don't even know any of this is going on. They are completely oblivious.

There is little danger to the GOP as long as they can get votes from these three groups.
I'm memorizing this comment, as it explains the inexplicable.

Essentially, Republicans either don't care, don't believe, or don't know.
  #35  
Old 10-04-2019, 08:16 AM
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(In any case, it’s probably a moot point...While he is clearly complicit to some degree (maybe a lot), I doubt Pence has been enough of a driving force behind anything to rise to the level I outlined).
  #36  
Old 10-04-2019, 04:20 PM
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The removals from office would not have to be simultaneous. If either of them is removed in any way, there would be a vacancy in the position of Vice-President. That vacancy can be filled only with the approval of both houses of Congress. At which Pelosi could then take a page from McConnel's playbook, and refuse to approve any candidate the President (whichever one of them it is) proposes.
  #37  
Old 10-04-2019, 04:25 PM
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The removals from office would not have to be simultaneous. If either of them is removed in any way, there would be a vacancy in the position of Vice-President. That vacancy can be filled only with the approval of both houses of Congress. At which Pelosi could then take a page from McConnel's playbook, and refuse to approve any candidate the President (whichever one of them it is) proposes.
Well.....OK.

Say that Trump is removed from office. Then Pence is president, no matter what Pelosi might say. There might be no VP, though, due to Pelosi's stonewalling. Then the Secret Service had better do a good job of protecting President Pence through January 2021.

Or let's say it's Pence who is impeached and removed, but Trump is not (I can't fathom how that would work, but let's roll with it.) So then it is Trump as a veep-less president? Same scenario as above.
  #38  
Old 10-04-2019, 04:27 PM
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I am starting to see Pence implicated in the Ukraine impeachment scandal. If Trump and Pence get impeached simultaneously, Speaker Pelosi is 3rd in line to become president.

How should she handle the office?
I beginning to think we need a forum named "Reality" so some of us can avoid these threads.
  #39  
Old 10-04-2019, 04:40 PM
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Yup, as I acknowledged right from the start, it's unlikely for both to be removed from office before January 2021. It's just not quite as unlikely as some are saying, because it doesn't have to be simultaneous.

Of the eight scenarios that would result in both leaving (either one first, and leaving either dead or alive), I think that the most likely is that Pence leaves office while still alive (via impeachment or resignation), and that Trump at some point after that dies. I think that this is most likely because it's probably more politically achievable for one of them to be removed alive while the other is still in office, and of the two, Trump is the more likely to die, given his known poor health.

How likely is this? Well, for a back-of-the-envelope estimate, out of 45 presidents, we've had one who was forced out of office by scandal (and yes, I know he wasn't impeached, but the net effect is the same). And we've had 8 who died in office. For both to happen (assuming they're independent), we're looking at about 1 in 250, or a 0.4% chance.

Yes, that's unlikely. And yes, that's a highly simplistic estimate. But Euphonious Polemic's estimate of "0.0000001% chance" is clearly hyperbole.
  #40  
Old 10-04-2019, 04:54 PM
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The removals from office would not have to be simultaneous. If either of them is removed in any way, there would be a vacancy in the position of Vice-President. That vacancy can be filled only with the approval of both houses of Congress. At which Pelosi could then take a page from McConnel's playbook, and refuse to approve any candidate the President (whichever one of them it is) proposes.
Why would a Republican-controlled Senate vote to remove the last Republican standing between Pelosi and the presidency while she's stonewalling a VP pick?
  #41  
Old 10-04-2019, 04:57 PM
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I beginning to think we need a forum named "Reality" so some of us can avoid these threads.
I like this idea. A forum where no wild "what if" fantasies are allowed.
  #42  
Old 10-04-2019, 05:27 PM
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I should also point out, there is no chance of it happening anyway. The Senate will not vote to remove a Republican from office if it means Pelosi becomes President. Removing one president from office would be viewed as sufficient rebuke to criminality that they would not feel compelled to repeat the gesture very soon.
Yeah... you can expect standard both-sides/enlightened centrist logic on this one.

"WHOA WHOA WHOA, we let you impeach and remove one obviously criminal president, that means it's our turn to keep one. You must respect playground rules. By the way it means we're automatically impeaching the next president you elect. Fair is fair."

I know I won't get my way, but impeachment isn't enough, I want retributive justice against Trump, the Trump children, Barr, Sessions, McConnell, Nunes, as well as second-tier lackeys like Giuliani, Nunes, Lewandowski who kept this dumpster fire on the rails up until the moment Trump confessed on camera.

I also want to know who paid Brett Kavanaugh's $200K debt for baseball tickets. I need to know that.
  #43  
Old 10-04-2019, 05:33 PM
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... I also want to know who paid Brett Kavanaugh's $200K debt for baseball tickets. I need to know that.
He already told you:

Quote:
"Everyone in the group paid me for their tickets based on the cost of the tickets, to the dollar," Kavanaugh told senators in written questions for the record submitted Wednesday night. "No one overpaid or underpaid me for tickets. No loans were given in either direction."
  #44  
Old 10-04-2019, 05:55 PM
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This is the most cogent and informative post I have ever seen of yours on any topic and I really appreciate it. There's enough to dislike about Kavanaugh without peddling seemingly baseless conspiracy theories about baseball ticket debt.
  #45  
Old 10-04-2019, 06:27 PM
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$200,000 worth of baseball tickets. Okay then. That's obviously normal.

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Originally Posted by Hari Seldon View Post
With Moscow Mitch running the senate, she would not even be able to get a cabinet approved. Pursue a progressive agenda? Hah!
There's no need anymore. Just appoint people as "acting" everything. Moscow Mitch can't (credibly) complain.

Last edited by ElvisL1ves; 10-04-2019 at 06:29 PM.
  #46  
Old 10-04-2019, 08:00 PM
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I mean, I know this board skews left, but damn, people. Pelosi as president? Are you high?
  #47  
Old 10-04-2019, 11:17 PM
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He told an unsubstantiated story without names or receipts. I find it no more convincing that his other similarly unsubstantiated stores.
  #48  
Old 10-05-2019, 01:35 AM
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A-HFS?
America-Hating FuckSticK.
  #49  
Old 10-05-2019, 01:52 AM
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Anyway, to answer the OP: In the unlikely scenario that Pelosi becomes president, she'd only have it for a few months - so her job is best to just be a "caretaker" in the White House. I don't think she would be a very electable candidate in her own right, so she shouldn't bother with trying to be the (D) nominee for 2020. Let's say Trump and Pence are both impeached and deposed in June 2020. She then gets the White House for seven months. During those seven months, she should just concern herself with being a "bus driver" for the nation while propping up and supporting the (D) nominee as much as she can (be it Bernie, Warren or Biden) until the (D) nominee wins the election. Then hand over the reins.


Of course, this cautious approach risks a backlash should a Republican win in 2020 - Pelosi would be soundly castigated by her own Democratic party, in hindsight, for having played things timid during the few blue months when the D's had the presidency. But if she were to get over-active, she could start a catfight in her own party that would lead to in-fighting.
  #50  
Old 10-05-2019, 02:25 AM
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...I think you understand it now. But based on your OP I don't think you understood it then.
I disagree. But I don't want to argue about this.

Quote:
That both Trump and Pence both are probably are guilty of impeachable offenses should come as no surprise to anyone. The crimes do speak for themselves. This has nothing to do with your OP.
Well I'm not on trial here. Can you believe that the premise behind suggesting impeaching Trump and Pence simultaneously is because I suspect they are both guilty of impeachable offenses? But I don't want to argue about this.

Quote:
I don't even know what you are talking about now. I don't believe in eternal souls. I don't believe in "eternal soul scorecards." Nothing is going to "leave a mark."
I don't know where you're from, but where I am from there are lots of what I call High Horse Republicans. They subscribe to the more fundamentalist denominations and are haughty and imperious towards lesser beings who have the wrong religion. I'm digressing a bit- I think the ethics of their religion is mostly ok (some of it is actually anti-social, but I don't want to argue about that), though I also think one of my core virtues, intellectual honesty, is not a literalist Christian value (because how do honest adults insist on the veracity of talking snakes, faith healing, those kinds of things). Well, my values prevent me from becoming pathologically full of crap like the High Horse Republicans have become. So, they can take that!


Quote:
So why did you bring it up in the first place?
I made some comments, I threw that "make noise" bit in there, you objected, and I concede the point. But on the bigger point, about surrender, I think I hold ground. Because, if the POTUS and the Veep are both guilty of impeachable crimes, then both need to be removed from office. That people can't seem to even imagine the scenario in which the law is applied strikes me as a problem. Politics? It doesn't trump the law. Religion? See the 1st Amendment. Presidential succession? There's no debate. All of this is obvious and straightforward. It strikes me as surrender that people allow their minds to be so completely led away from what should be the proper outcome of the law.

Maybe it would help if I framed it as a John Lennon song:
Quote:
Imagine laws are followed.
An easy thing to do.
No Ukraine to lie for,
Pelosi's POTUS, too.
This isn't the "101 reasons why the law might be discarded" or "How unlikely is this scenario?" thread (though I appreciate the odds calculation). The thread differs from a pure fantasy like "What if cats had proboscises?" because it deals with the actual outcome the law demands. It feels like gaslighting that people are treating me like I'm crazy for talking about it. But I don't want to argue about that.
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