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  #201  
Old 11-10-2017, 05:27 PM
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Wow! You even think you know how much I paid for my car!

Of course, I wouldnít dare correct you, because Iím probably wrong for some reasons. Maybe in the next post I can learn how Iím mismanaging my battery.
  #202  
Old 11-10-2017, 06:18 PM
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Maybe you got a deal. Or are thinking about net after EV tax credit. Or leased. But the i3 does start at about $42K for the base package and loaded 2017 anyway lists $53K. So if my "something like $45K" is way off then good for you I guess. Of course it's been around for a few years, but it started base at about $42K in 2014 as well.

They make it pretty damn hard to mismanage a battery. I don't think you could pull it off.

The i3 and the Leaf are great cars for commuting and driving about the city. The i3 looks sexier and has some snazzy touches. For many commuting and limited city driving is the functionality they care about and they either have no need for a car that can do the even 200 mile weekend or road trip or have another family vehicle that they will use for that need. The Bolt or the Tesla 3 neither of them are.

Bringing this back to Tesla - clearly the i3, priced in the same space as the Bolt and the Tesla 3, even if selling only a few hundred per month so not exactly mass production, cannot compete with those vehicles. BMW is planning to bring vehicles with over 300 miles of range to market by 2019. Will they be able to find a niche in the market? Assuming Tesla pulls off their production ramp by end of 2018 will BMW be able to compete?
  #203  
Old 11-12-2017, 06:39 PM
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Question for those in this thread on the Tesla 3 wait list: how much delay will you tolerate before you start seriously looking at the Bolt, which based on reviews sounds pretty comparable to what the Tesla 3 is expected to be?
I'd get a Model S before the Bolt, but the Model 3 would have to be delayed around a year before I'd start thinking about it. My current car still has some life in it.

However with every Model 3 video I see, I hate my 330i more and more. The clean interior is the new standard as far as I'm concerned. I look around and see buttons I haven't pressed in 6 months; why would I possibly want them to clutter up my view?

On an typical journey, I press literally one button on my dashboard: clearing the stupid-ass warning message about some bullshit that I never read that shows up every time I start the car. Headlights, AC, radio, all that stuff I have configured already, so there's no need to change it. On occasion, I might change it to the efficiency/range display, which takes like 6 button presses to get to. Of course, this information is displayed by default on the Model 3.

So I'm done with cars that look like the aftermath of an explosion in a Soviet button factory. I'm willing to wait for the Model 3 if only because everything else looks like last century in comparison.

As far as range anxiety goes, the last time I experienced it I would have been totally comfortable in an EV. I was sitting for many hours in near-motionless traffic, burning through my tank at idle--a situation which is irrelevant to an EV, which can drive at 1 mph for days if need be.
  #204  
Old 11-12-2017, 08:38 PM
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Very interesting dichotomy in two reviews of the Model 3.

The first says that the 3 has ruined every other car for its owner:

https://insideevs.com/new-tesla-model-3-owner-gushes/

The second is from an investment analyst who drove the 3 at an event that sounds like it was focused on Wall Street. This analyst warned of fairly substantial initial quality issues:

https://insideevs.com/seeing-car-ana...latively-poor/
  #205  
Old 11-12-2017, 09:20 PM
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I don't think those are too contradictory; they just focus on different aspects.

In terms of how it drives, I haven't heard a single negative thing about the 3. It's exactly what it's supposed to be; a small sport sedan with good (but not supercar level) handling and performance. And of course all the advantages of EVs like instant throttle response.

But it does seem to have the fit and finish of a Tesla--that is, not so great. Uneven panel gaps have been a sore point for years, as has paint quality. Maybe some of this is a function of the low automation on Model S/X and the early 3s, and it will get better over time. But I suspect perfectionists will be disappointed.
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Old 11-12-2017, 10:10 PM
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But I suspect perfectionists will be disappointed.
where does the perfectionist (or anybody else) go for repairs?
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  #207  
Old 11-12-2017, 10:17 PM
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where does the perfectionist (or anybody else) go for repairs?
For uneven door seams? Nowhere. I mean, if they're bad enough to be a functional issue it becomes a warranty thing, but otherwise there's not much to be done. Well, you can get it painted black .

For minor paint issues, misaligned door seals, wind noises, or whatever, I'm sure plenty of places would fix that for you.
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Old 11-12-2017, 10:28 PM
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For uneven door seams? Nowhere. I mean, if they're bad enough to be a functional issue it becomes a warranty thing, but otherwise there's not much to be done. Well, you can get it painted black .
There are 3 Tesla locations in my state. the closest one to me is over an hour away. It's a store front. There doesn't appear to be any place for repair work.

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For minor paint issues, misaligned door seals, wind noises, or whatever, I'm sure plenty of places would fix that for you.
Are you suggesting customers take their new car to outside repair shops for service?
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  #209  
Old 11-12-2017, 10:42 PM
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Well, there's a Tesla service center literally a block away from my work, so if I run into any issues I won't even need a loaner. As compared to my BMW where the closest center is in a different city.

As for outside repairs, I'm only talking minor cosmetic issues which wouldn't be covered under warranty (you were replying to the "perfectionist" comment, after all). Minor paint orangepeeling and the like aren't a functional issue and wouldn't bother me, but in any case that stuff can be fixed.

Tesla is in the process of creating a fleet of mobile repair vans which will be able to do minor jobs at your work or home. Not sure when they'll achieve full US coverage but I hope it'll scale with Model 3 sales.
  #210  
Old 11-13-2017, 06:12 AM
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Well, there's a Tesla service center literally a block away from my work, so if I run into any issues I won't even need a loaner. As compared to my BMW where the closest center is in a different city.

As for outside repairs, I'm only talking minor cosmetic issues which wouldn't be covered under warranty (you were replying to the "perfectionist" comment, after all). Minor paint orangepeeling and the like aren't a functional issue and wouldn't bother me, but in any case that stuff can be fixed.

Tesla is in the process of creating a fleet of mobile repair vans which will be able to do minor jobs at your work or home. Not sure when they'll achieve full US coverage but I hope it'll scale with Model 3 sales.
are you even listening to what you're saying? "They're in the process of creating mobile vans for minor repairs". What about major repairs? This isn't some small issue, it's a big deal if there aren't any places to take the car for repair.

It's great that you're willing to overlook a bad paint job but fanboy loyalty isn't going to travel far for the vast majority of consumers.
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  #211  
Old 11-13-2017, 10:29 AM
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I don't think those are too contradictory; they just focus on different aspects.

In terms of how it drives, I haven't heard a single negative thing about the 3. ...

But it does seem to have the fit and finish of a Tesla--that is, not so great. ....
That's a good point. Reading through the comments in those links, there's quite a few people who are strident in their view of, "I don't care how many rattles or how much wind noise there is! It's a Tesla, squeeeeee! It can be missing two windows, but as long as there's a DEDICATED SUPERCHARGER NETWORK it's the best car ever!"

I don't mean to belittle anyone who is very enthusiastic about getting the Model 3 they have been waiting on for years. I will probably go car shopping in another few years, and there's no question I'm going to test drive a Model 3 then. I'm not totally sold on it just because I've looked at pictures online, but if I get in it and the build quality is poor, I'm going to look for a competitor that offers better value. And in a few years, when I expect to look for a new car, we're looking at having EV offerings in the 200 mile range from Chevy, VW, BMW, Hyundai, Nissan, Mercedes, and Audi. Frankly, with the exception of VW and Audi, I think those carmarkers are far better at keeping their schedule promises than Tesla.

But mostly I'm just miffed that Tesla, which has so much going for it, seems to know how to design a great car, but not know how to build one.
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Old 11-13-2017, 10:49 AM
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Overall I agree. From my POV as a non-EV owner who'd like one when they're a little better and as a Tesla non-fanboy. A couple thoughts:
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...
and there's no question I'm going to test drive a Model 3 then. I'm not totally sold on it just because I've looked at pictures online, but if I get in it and the build quality is poor, I'm going to look for a competitor that offers better value.
...
You jumped directly from "build quality" to "value". Those are very different metrics. It's fine to say "I deduct points for crappy build quality." IMO most folks conceive of "value" as price vs. other objective dollar-quantifiable measures.

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...
But mostly I'm just miffed that Tesla, which has so much going for it, seems to know how to design a great car, but not know how to build one.
In fairness, jz78817 who does know rather a lot about building cars at scale, has said all along that building modern cars to modern standards is not easy, nor cheap, nor readily scalable down as far as Tesla needs to be today.

The $64B question is whether they can scale up quality and quantity and scale down marginal production cost at a rate that works. Their window of first-mover opportunity is fast closing: the rest of the industry who already knows those aspects cold is about to take that free lunch off the table.

Will the plucky hero snatch sweet victory from the jaws of defeat, or will they be dragon snacks? Stay tuned.

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  #213  
Old 11-13-2017, 11:36 AM
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are you even listening to what you're saying? "They're in the process of creating mobile vans for minor repairs". What about major repairs? This isn't some small issue, it's a big deal if there aren't any places to take the car for repair.
Sure, but it's an issue that any startup car company would encounter. Before there are many cars, there aren't many places that can repair them.

That's fine. If you don't live near a place that can repair Teslas, maybe don't buy a Tesla? Or accept that it's going to require shipping your car somewhere if it needs a major repair. There are lots and lots of people who do live near enough that it's not an issue, and people who can deal with renting a car for the few extra days it will take over another car.
  #214  
Old 11-13-2017, 04:28 PM
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It's great that you're willing to overlook a bad paint job but fanboy loyalty isn't going to travel far for the vast majority of consumers.
The vast majority don't live so far away from service centers, even at their current density. Half the US population lives in the top 50 cities, and Tesla has service centers in most of these. So they may not quite reach half but they're pretty close, and they're planning on many more.

And like iamthewalrus(:3= said, if you live too far from one then don't buy a Tesla. Clearly there is plenty of pent-up demand in areas that Tesla does cover, or from people willing to go out of their way. If you live in buttfuck nowhere, buy something else. If Tesla hasn't built out their service network two years from now when they've eaten through the early demand, we might have a problem.
  #215  
Old 11-13-2017, 04:56 PM
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That's a good point. Reading through the comments in those links, there's quite a few people who are strident in their view of, "I don't care how many rattles or how much wind noise there is!
I don't have infinite patience for build defects, but the advantages of an EV (and in particular a Tesla) can make up for a lot. All gas cars have the gigantic noise defect of their engine. A bit more wind noise is acceptable if the total noise level goes down.

Like LSLGuy said, fit-and-finish stuff deducts "points" but isn't necessarily a make-or-break. Charge at home is +50 points. EV feel is +40. Minimalist interior is +30. Slower road trips are -10. Minor rattles -5. From my perspective, quite a lot of stuff would have to suck to make up for the known advantages.
  #216  
Old 11-13-2017, 06:15 PM
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Like LSLGuy said, fit-and-finish stuff deducts "points" but isn't necessarily a make-or-break. Charge at home is +50 points. EV feel is +40. Minimalist interior is +30. Slower road trips are -10. Minor rattles -5. From my perspective, quite a lot of stuff would have to suck to make up for the known advantages.
Versus ICE cars, I presume you mean. Other EVs would presumably stand up better in the comparison, and make Tesla's manufacturing failings more important.
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Old 11-13-2017, 06:27 PM
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Versus ICE cars, I presume you mean. Other EVs would presumably stand up better in the comparison, and make Tesla's manufacturing failings more important.
Right; I was using a typical ICE as a baseline. In principle, it doesn't matter, really--the relative standing would be the same no matter what the baseline.

Against, say, a Bolt, the Model 3 has better range (in the extended model), fast charging (340 mph), the new interior, better looks (IMO), better body style (again, IMO; I prefer sedans), and so on. But it loses (probably) on fit and finish, ease of service, and a few other things.

That said, I think it's useful--for those thinking of switching from ICE to EV--to go through the mental exercise of setting the EV as the baseline and picking out the negatives of switching to an ICE. Imagine that you've driven EVs your whole life and someone is trying to convince you of the advantages of an ICE. Noisy engine, -10 points. Dingy and gross gas stations, -10. Super-fast fueling, +20. Don't start every day at full capacity, -20. Weird and clunky acceleration curve, -10. Etc.
  #218  
Old 11-13-2017, 07:37 PM
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...
Against, say, a Bolt, the Model 3 has better range (in the extended model), fast charging (340 mph), the new interior, better looks (IMO), better body style (again, IMO; I prefer sedans), and so on. But it loses (probably) on fit and finish, ease of service, and a few other things.
...
Bolding mine.

I totally want one of these. It can still charge while going 340mph! That'll get me to work in ... hmm ... 7 minutes. Sold!!


Seriously ... I think you've hit on a useful formulation. Bad because different is a dumb way to evaluate anything. Its far smarter to treat each as a bucket of plusses and minuses then tot them all up.

I've said before my obstacle is entirely that absent forcing legislation which ain't gonna happen here in FL, there's no way my condo will ever retrofit power for chargers to our parking spaces. So I either move to new construction or a single family house or drive an ICE UFN.

Last edited by LSLGuy; 11-13-2017 at 07:41 PM.
  #219  
Old 11-13-2017, 07:48 PM
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I totally want one of these. It can still charge while going 340mph. That's get me to work in ... hmm ... 7 minutes. Sold!!
I've always liked expressing common things in unusual but equivalent units. It leads to useful insights--it really is the case, assuming you have a 40 mile commute, that it only needs 7 minutes of Supercharger time to charge for that trip.

It vaguely annoys me that EV efficiency isn't measured in Newtons. A Model S uses about 300 W-h/mile. That's equivalent to 671 N, or 68 kg in Earth gravity. Which is of course the combined force on the vehicle (aero, friction, resistivity, etc.) when traveling at the rated speed.

Also, a 30 mpg car should be rated as 0.078 mm2. That's the area of a thread of gas the car needs to "eat" as it travels down the road.
  #220  
Old 11-13-2017, 08:19 PM
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This is double-funny. I actually thought DSeid had muffed his units & I was making a (friendly) joke at his expense.

Turns out the joke is on me and he meant that it charges at a rate of 340 miles (of incremental range) per hour (of charging). That totally went over my head. Whoosh!!
OTOH, on that basis my ICE can charge at a rate of about 300 miles per 5 minutes or 3,600mph. Take that Mr. Musk! Sounds to me more like you sell a Slow-poke Charger. Hur hur!!

Another slightly funny anecdote along these lines is that at the end of many workdays I fly right over my house enroute to my base airport. I've timed it and from overhead my house to touchdown is right at 10 minutes for the typical traffic flow and wind conditions. From touchdown to starting the car is about 40 minutes and from starting the car to parking at home is 50 minutes of mostly freeway driving if no traffic. So the trip takes 10 minutes one way and 90 the other. If I could get a 340 real mph car (ICE or EV) maybe I could drive to home quicker than I now fly away from home.

Agree about the rest. I really enjoyed the what-if.xkcd on the cross-section of gasoline mileage. Which I can't find just now. Maybe it was only in his book.

Strictly, 340 miles (of incremental range) per hour (of charging) isn't miles/hour. It's got some other units munged in there but I'm too lazy to work them out just before bed time.

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  #221  
Old 11-14-2017, 07:32 AM
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I don't have infinite patience for build defects, but the advantages of an EV (and in particular a Tesla) can make up for a lot. All gas cars have the gigantic noise defect of their engine. A bit more wind noise is acceptable if the total noise level goes down.
Thatís not necessarily true. I currently drive a Mustang, and the damned (fake) engine noise is pumped into the cabin! As much as Iíd like to rip out this ďfeature,Ē itís a company car and I canít. Prior to that I had a Fusion Energi, and managed to run it nearly 100% of the time on electric only mode. It was very, very quiet. But do you know what else is equally quiet? The MKS, even with a turbo-charged V6. Active noise cancellation, thicker glass, and lots of body sealer and stiffeners make modern, gasoline powered cars exceptionally quiet these days.
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Old 11-14-2017, 04:48 PM
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I don't mean to belittle anyone who is very enthusiastic about getting the Model 3 they have been waiting on for years. I will probably go car shopping in another few years, and there's no question I'm going to test drive a Model 3 then.
I question whether there will be a model 3 in a coupe of years to test drive. They're burning through money intended to bring production on-line in order for them to have working cash flow going forward. How deep do you think that well is?
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  #223  
Old 11-14-2017, 07:55 PM
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I've always liked expressing common things in unusual but equivalent units. It leads to useful insights--it really is the case, assuming you have a 40 mile commute, that it only needs 7 minutes of Supercharger time to charge for that trip.

It vaguely annoys me that EV efficiency isn't measured in Newtons. A Model S uses about 300 W-h/mile. That's equivalent to 671 N, or 68 kg in Earth gravity. Which is of course the combined force on the vehicle (aero, friction, resistivity, etc.) when traveling at the rated speed.

Also, a 30 mpg car should be rated as 0.078 mm2. That's the area of a thread of gas the car needs to "eat" as it travels down the road.
I can see why you're an ardent Tesla fan.
  #224  
Old 11-14-2017, 08:10 PM
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I can see why you're an ardent Tesla fan.
I like Tesla, but I prefer kilograms per coulomb-second.
  #225  
Old 11-14-2017, 08:50 PM
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I question whether there will be a model 3 in a coupe of years to test drive. They're burning through money intended to bring production on-line in order for them to have working cash flow going forward. How deep do you think that well is?
Well, for how many years have you been predicting the imminent demise of Tesla?
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Old 11-14-2017, 09:31 PM
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Well, for how many years have you been predicting the imminent demise of Tesla?
The same number of years they've been burning through capital?

They're currently struggling with battery production which is supposed to be Tesla's strength. They've produced almost no Model 3's at a time when they were supposed to be in mass production and generating capital going forward. They cannot compensate for lost sales in 2017 and the money they're spending to fix the problem adds to the production cost of every vehicle made in the future. In short, they are going to take a loss on these cars regardless of any infusion of capital.
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  #227  
Old 11-14-2017, 11:11 PM
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Thatís not necessarily true. I currently drive a Mustang, and the damned (fake) engine noise is pumped into the cabin!
The new Mustang also has a "quiet mode" for outside the cabin.

You're certainly right that new cars have gotten quieter; my point is just that you have to consider the overall noise level. And I do actually care about external noise, which doesn't seem to have improved much. Just one of many factors to consider.
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Old 11-15-2017, 06:17 AM
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The new Mustang also has a "quiet mode" for outside the cabin.

You're certainly right that new cars have gotten quieter; my point is just that you have to consider the overall noise level. And I do actually care about external noise, which doesn't seem to have improved much. Just one of many factors to consider.
The Mustang has a tube that physically pipes noise into the cabin from the intake because the engine is too quiet.

I drive a car that focuses on performance and very little cabin noise comes from the engine. Cabin noise is a function of insulation from wind and road noise and not engine.
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Old 11-15-2017, 08:05 AM
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The same number of years they've been burning through capital?
So you've been predicting the end of Tesla for longer than they have been a publicly traded company. Since the IPO in 2009, the stock price has gone up by 18 times. The total market cap is about two-thirds that of Toyota, even though Tesla has sold as many cars in its history as Toyota sells each month.

For all of Tesla's problems, if you were my investment adviser and told me to short Tesla eight years ago, you would have been fired a thousand times over and run out of town on a rail. So like the hobo who wanders around town with the sign, "The end is near!" I acknowledge that you only have to be right once, but you've been wrong for an awfully long time.

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They're currently struggling with battery production which is supposed to be Tesla's strength.
I think Tesla's strength is designing cars. Not making batteries or cars. Isn't the Gigafactory a little more than a Panasonic operation with a Tesla sign on the door?

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In short, they are going to take a loss on these cars regardless of any infusion of capital.
Pardon me, but this sounds like nonsense. What company turns a profit on sales due to capital infusions? Capital infusions are generally for facilitization and things like that, not to recoup margin on sales.
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Old 11-15-2017, 10:22 AM
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Except that Tesla is no longer just a car company.

It is a Solar Energy / Battery / Car company.
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Old 11-15-2017, 04:44 PM
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So you've been predicting the end of Tesla for longer than they have been a publicly traded company. Since the IPO in 2009, the stock price has gone up by 18 times. The total market cap is about two-thirds that of Toyota, even though Tesla has sold as many cars in its history as Toyota sells each month.
If the car company was properly funded then why did they ask for money down on a car that was nowhere near ready for mass production? They were going to go bankrupt if they didn't going public.

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For all of Tesla's problems, if you were my investment adviser and told me to short Tesla eight years ago, you would have been fired a thousand times over and run out of town on a rail. So like the hobo who wanders around town with the sign, "The end is near!" I acknowledge that you only have to be right once, but you've been wrong for an awfully long time.
show me where I've been wrong on Tesla's ability to deliver on what they promised? One example will do.

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Pardon me, but this sounds like nonsense. What company turns a profit on sales due to capital infusions? Capital infusions are generally for facilitization and things like that, not to recoup margin on sales.
They're burning through cash and they've yet to produce a car in quantity. Explain how that works? How much money did they take in on pre-orders? All I've heard is excuses for the greatness of Tesla without any thought given to the reality of the undertaking.

If anything I've understated the level of failure that's occurred in the past and is occurring now. This is Tucker all over again only this time nobody is trying to bury Tesla. They're doing it to themselves.
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  #232  
Old 11-15-2017, 04:57 PM
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Did Elon Musk run over your puppy at some point? Cut you off in traffic?

This jihad you have about Tesla is really out of control. I'm not saying that Tesla is beyond criticism, but damn.
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Old 11-15-2017, 05:31 PM
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If Tesla didn't have Musk's wallet behind it I'd have a lot more reason to believe Magiver is mostly right and the whole thing may have started legitimately but is now merely a Ponzi scheme to collect a lot of deposits (or stock market valuation) from the rubes before reality sets in.

Given that Tesla actually does have Musk's wallet & ego behind it, I think Magiver is discounting those factors to zero. And IMO that's a mistake. Those factors mean there's a hefty chance Tesla does cross that Valley of Death on the way to selling at scale for per-unit positive cash flow. Which is enough to keep the project going UFN.

Might he later sell the brand, or the design, or some tech innards goodness to GM / Toyota / VW & call it quits? Sure. But that's business, not a criminal conspiracy.

Last edited by LSLGuy; 11-15-2017 at 05:33 PM.
  #234  
Old 11-15-2017, 05:39 PM
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Isn't the Gigafactory a little more than a Panasonic operation with a Tesla sign on the door?
No. The cell production is largely Panasonic, but the Gigafactory produces complete packs. A pack is way more than just a bunch of cells soldered together; it has thermal management and various electronic bits.

The pack production is the current Model 3 bottleneck, not the cells. They outsourced the automation development for some of the pack production and the developer failed to meet their deadlines, stalling production.

Under other circumstances I'd blame it on the common element--i.e., Tesla. However, Tesla (and SpaceX for that matter) has a long history of contract companies dropping the ball (or just saying that something is impossible or will cost way more than is reasonable), and then Tesla insourcing the project and doing it correctly. It appears that this will be a similar situation as they've already dedicated an internal engineering staff to rework it.
  #235  
Old 11-15-2017, 05:45 PM
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show me where I've been wrong on Tesla's ability to deliver on what they promised? One example will do.
That will be tough, since so many of your claims fall into the "not even wrong" category.

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This is Tucker all over again only this time nobody is trying to bury Tesla. They're doing it to themselves.
Really, dude? You can't seriously believe this. Tucker produced 51 cars total. Tesla has produced a quarter million. This is really the longest of long cons.

And "nobody is trying to bury Tesla" is the biggest laugh I've had all day. I know you can do better than this.
  #236  
Old 11-15-2017, 06:34 PM
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Did Elon Musk run over your puppy at some point? Cut you off in traffic?

This jihad you have about Tesla is really out of control. I'm not saying that Tesla is beyond criticism, but damn.
Well forgive some of us for getting tired of the knee-jerk response to any criticism of Tesla as being "Tesla haters."

and I'm really getting tired of people who have no idea how cars are made condescendingly trying to explain to me how cars are made.
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Old 11-15-2017, 07:11 PM
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Well forgive some of us for getting tired of the knee-jerk response to any criticism of Tesla as being "Tesla haters."
I went back an looked at every one of your posts. I would say I agree with the points you made in very nearly every one of them, I strongly agreed with quite a few of your posts, and I learned a few things from some of them as well.

If you go back and look at my posts in this thread, while I'm sure I don't have the expertise that you do, I've been strongly critical of Tesla on some points, and I've surely been complementary to Tesla on a handful.

But Magiver's criticism of Tesla is routinely unconvincing and indicative of a grudge, in my opinion. I don't think there's any careful thought put into his arguments, and a few of them just seem to be from another planet entirely. In another thread, he argued something to the effect that Tesla is going to cut Model 3 production to become a Powerwall company. I just don't know where he gets some of this stuff.
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Old 11-15-2017, 08:04 PM
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Did Elon Musk run over your puppy at some point? Cut you off in traffic?

This jihad you have about Tesla is really out of control. I'm not saying that Tesla is beyond criticism, but damn.
If you remember I've praised his luxury sports cars and given him credit for exploiting a long known fact about electric motors. They deliver 100% torque at startup. He nailed a previously untapped niche in cars.

But as a car company, Tesla has consistently failed to deliver on projected deliveries and that was with small production runs of luxury cars.

Show me where I've been unfair to Tesla based on their past and present performance. Tell my why my prediction they would have problems with the Model 3 was wrong.
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  #239  
Old 11-15-2017, 08:20 PM
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Given that Tesla actually does have Musk's wallet & ego behind it, I think Magiver is discounting those factors to zero. And IMO that's a mistake. Those factors mean there's a hefty chance Tesla does cross that Valley of Death on the way to selling at scale for per-unit positive cash flow. Which is enough to keep the project going UFN.
Elon Musk is worth 19 billion on paper. I don't know how much that is worth if he liquidates but Tesla could burn through that pretty quick.

His battery storage business is something he can make money on. If the Model 3 continues to burn through capital then at some point he will be forced to concentrate on the profitable nodes of business to keep from going bankrupt.
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  #240  
Old 11-15-2017, 09:09 PM
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Show me where I've been unfair to Tesla based on their past and present performance.
Just hours ago, someone pointed out that you think a company that has sold a quarter of a million cars and is the third largest capitalized car company (which has never turns a profit, to be sure) is the same as a company that made 51 cars before going completely bankrupt. Thatís a pretty unfair comparison.
  #241  
Old 11-15-2017, 09:34 PM
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Did Elon Musk run over your puppy at some point? Cut you off in traffic?

This jihad you have about Tesla is really out of control. I'm not saying that Tesla is beyond criticism, but damn.
A big bunch of people are trying to spread rumors that Tesla is going to collapse so that the stock price for Tesla will finally drop.

Tesla is overvalued. I'm a big fan of them, but they do not have the inherent worth of Toyota, which has vastly more revenue, factories, market share, 10 times the R&D budget, 10 times the employees, and is the most respected automaker in the world. Yet at the moment Tesla's market cap is similar.

So a bunch of people have been trying for months now to make the bubble pop now rather than in a year from now when their short options have expired. In the long run, Tesla's market value will most likely be corrected down to it's true worth (maybe 20% of the value of Toyota at best), but for people who have sold Tesla short, if it doesn't collapse now, they will lose whatever they spent on options.

Of course, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Last edited by SamuelA; 11-15-2017 at 09:36 PM.
  #242  
Old 11-15-2017, 10:31 PM
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A big bunch of people are trying to spread rumors that Tesla is going to collapse so that the stock price for Tesla will finally drop.
In particular, pretty much anything from Seeking Alpha can be dismissed. They make no secret that they mostly hold a short position on Tesla. Yeah, maybe some of their coverage is true and maybe it's not, but I'm not going to decide based on their word.

I'm fairly certain that Tesla is subject to various dirty union tricks. My company is no stranger to this--some union or other didn't like that we contracted some non-union food service people. The union dug up some FUD on our company and paid some professional protesters to march outside of our HQ. It was pretty lame and transparent but it wouldn't surprise me if it did cause some measurable harm.

Right after their last earnings would have been a great time for the TSLA bubble to pop, if it were going to. Investors mostly stayed put.
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Old 11-16-2017, 06:08 AM
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Just hours ago, someone pointed out that you think a company that has sold a quarter of a million cars and is the third largest capitalized car company (which has never turns a profit, to be sure) is the same as a company that made 51 cars before going completely bankrupt. Thatís a pretty unfair comparison.
The comparison was of 2 companies greatly oversold to the public by "visionaries".

It isn't that Tesla hasn't turned a profit. they weren't expected to have positive cash flow until next year. That was based on meeting production numbers they planned on this year. It's mid-November and they've only made a couple hundred Model 3's. Instead of generating revenue from this they're still spending money on it. They don't have the infrastructure to service the cars once they make it to market. It's a financial house of cards.

This isn't an Apple release that's a few days late. it's a consistent pattern of overselling a product that's late to market and when it arrives there are quality issues. They're changing from a low production/high value product to a mass produced product with slimmer profit margin.
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  #244  
Old 11-16-2017, 08:02 AM
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The comparison was of 2 companies greatly oversold to the public by "visionaries".
Sure, like how people compare Amazon circa 2014 with pets.com. Also a fair comparison?
  #245  
Old 11-16-2017, 10:20 AM
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Magiver said something that's been giving me food for thought. Where do you go to get serious repairs done? The thing is what about a Tesla aside from the driveline, or warranty, would require anything but a "normal" car mechanic? The suspension isn't radical, body work is body work, and if it's a dead battery or motor problem a mobile repair crew or shipping to a repair facility is a possibility.
I have a Subaru, as do many others here, and the nearest dealer is 300 km (180 miles for you holdouts), away. When my co-worker's 2015 WRX died, SOC flat-bedded it to the dealer at their expense.
I'm presently waiting on parts for mine due to my wheel playing not so nice with a curb after the first snowfall here and bending suspension bits so I'm acquainted with the pitfalls of lack of dealerships nearby.
Electric motors are generally super reliable, and the batteries appear to be so as well. So is the lack of a repair facility nearby that critical, really?
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  #246  
Old 11-16-2017, 10:50 AM
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Magiver said something that's been giving me food for thought. Where do you go to get serious repairs done? The thing is what about a Tesla aside from the driveline, or warranty, would require anything but a "normal" car mechanic? The suspension isn't radical, body work is body work, and if it's a dead battery or motor problem a mobile repair crew or shipping to a repair facility is a possibility.
I have a Subaru, as do many others here, and the nearest dealer is 300 km (180 miles for you holdouts), away. When my co-worker's 2015 WRX died, SOC flat-bedded it to the dealer at their expense.
I'm presently waiting on parts for mine due to my wheel playing not so nice with a curb after the first snowfall here and bending suspension bits so I'm acquainted with the pitfalls of lack of dealerships nearby.
Electric motors are generally super reliable, and the batteries appear to be so as well. So is the lack of a repair facility nearby that critical, really?
Also, mechanics rated to work on hybrids can realistically fix a Tesla for the most part. There's a youtube channel I follow where the host tore down a Model S to the frame and rebuilt it. For the most part, it's pretty plug and play. You just unbolt and remove failed modules and bolt in the replacement modules, and if you have the special Tesla software that they are legally required to publish to mechanics in some states, the car will just tell you what the error codes are. And the error codes are extremely accurate - Tesla has 2 way digital communication with every important system in the model S, and each module is self-diagnosing.

Basically the main things that require Tesla specific knowledge are :
a. The correct procedure to not risk electrocution. All hybrids and EVs have high voltage power sources.
b. How to actually read the trouble codes, how to reflash the body control module and other critical modules
c. Where to get parts.

(c) is actually the big problem. Right now, Tesla are being dicks and will not sell their high voltage components to anyone but their own mechanics. This will probably change but that is the present situation.
  #247  
Old 11-16-2017, 11:04 AM
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Certainly soon enough aftermarket shops will spring up. Just as there have been "foreign car repair" places in the US from the 1950s even though prior to about 1970 European-made cars were <5% of the US fleet and Japanese cars were 0% to within our sampling error.

When the Japanese vehicles first invaded there wasn't much place to get them fixed either. Dealers were few and far between. But oddly enough, all the "Helmut's German car repair" and "Antonio's Fiat" joints learned to cope quickly. And because most (not all) Japanese cars were sold by dealers to nearby customers, the supply of Japanese (or Japanese-capable) car repair places also grew up in the same areas, albeit with some months' lag. The same areas where a critical mass of customers was forming and growing at the same time.

Early adoption has up- as well as downsides. This chicken-and-egg cars vs. repair shops issue wasn't an insurmountable obstacle to past manufacturers entering markets. It won't be this time either. Obstacle? Yes. Insurmountable? No.

Last edited by LSLGuy; 11-16-2017 at 11:07 AM.
  #248  
Old 11-16-2017, 11:20 AM
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Electric motors are generally super reliable, and the batteries appear to be so as well. So is the lack of a repair facility nearby that critical, really?
FWIW the stuff Teslas have had quality problems with are things like door mechanisms, interior/body electronics, and I think the Model S has had suspension issues on older years.

So, basically the same stuff that fails on an ICE car.

people tend to vastly overplay the whole "EVs are so much simpler!" card. but they really aren't. yes, you don't have all of the moving parts of an engine and transmission, but on the vast majority of cars those things rarely fail or cause problems. A great many cars get junked when their owners get sick of the constant nickel-and-dime repairs; e.g. "I just spent $800 on struts last month and now you're telling me I need to spend another $600 on control arms and tie rods?!? I'm sick of this thing."

EVs have all of those high-wear items.

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Tesla has 2 way digital communication with every important system in the model S, and each module is self-diagnosing.
this is industry standard. not unique to Tesla.
  #249  
Old 11-16-2017, 12:28 PM
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That's my point exactly. The physical aspects are things any competent mechanic will be able to deal with and if the diagnostics and fault tree analysis the car does itself are even remotely like the stuff I worked on the F-18 Hornet, then as SamuelA points out, getting parts is the bottleneck, which is no different than a limited availability vehicle (like LSLGuy was alluding to) and the attendant risks thereof.
Now, I'm better off than most in that I would have no hesitation wrenching and replacing parts myself because of my background and my seeming ability to not want to buy whatever the dealers here have on offer. There's too many pickups roaming the streets for nothing but toy hauling and groceries here as it is. My dilemma and primary impediment to ordering a Model 3 is the wait time. Realistically, I have two more years to wait even if I had my $1k down from the start due to my location, and deep in my heart , I want a Model S which is not going to happen unless I win the lottery.
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Last edited by swampspruce; 11-16-2017 at 12:32 PM. Reason: add on
  #250  
Old 11-16-2017, 05:31 PM
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So, basically the same stuff that fails on an ICE car.
Amusingly, they also commonly have problems with their battery. Not the big one, though. The standard 12v lead-acid that every Tesla still includes because all of the off-the-shelf components still run on 12v, and it's convenient to have a small buffer.
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