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  #2051  
Old 12-20-2018, 09:46 AM
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It went well, the process was quick and I didn't have to wait much at all. Everyone was pleasant and helpful. The car was not as clean as I would have liked, I will need to wash the windows and wipe down the interior later.

As for the car, I had not test driven it or even seen it up close before so I was a little nervous about how it would be. I didn't have enough time between the Nov 30 deadline when I made my decision to buy. However, the research I did and the 3 day return policy made me comfortable enough to go for it.

I have to say that all of my expectations were met and then exceeded in many respects. The acceleration and handling are absolutely fantastic. The audio system is as good as I hoped for and the navigation was wonderful. I've had Nav systems before but always used my phone instead because they were so awful. That is definitely not going to be the case here.

The stupid grin on my face lasted even after I left the car and I had to keep it in check on my trip to Target after the dealership in order to not look like an idiot.

The only issue that I have had was that setting the windshield wipers to auto made them always on despite it being clear skies. I know they are in Beta and many people have issues with them, but I thought it was more that they didn't wipe enough in some situations. Not sure yet what the deal is there.
  #2052  
Old 12-20-2018, 05:20 PM
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Congrats on the new car!

I'm a little surprised at the auto wipers going off even in clear skies. Never had that problem myself--I agree with the other complaints you've seen, that I wish they were a a tad more aggressive in wiping. But they still work pretty well, and it's not a big deal to tap the stalk button if there's some mist building up.

I got the latest SW update the other night (48.12). I hooked up an Xbox controller via USB and played Lunar Lander and some other games. Mostly worked great! The controls on Pole Position were wonky but it was cute how they substituted the car with a Model 3.
  #2053  
Old 01-02-2019, 12:56 PM
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Tesla announced their Q4 sales figures. Model 3 sales are up 15% over last quarter, which is a nice increase but clearly (for the time being), they're past the exponential part of their growth curve.

3/4 of the sales were from new customers, not reservation holders, which is a good sign. Obviously there are a bunch of people still holding reservations for base models and in Europe, but they've managed to mostly transition their US high-spec sales to ordinary buyers.

The stock took a bit of a dip, but nothing shocking. I'd ascribe this to the $2000 price cut they announced. That about halfway ameliorates the $3750 reduction in Federal rebate. Nothing too unexpected there, but it's definitely a reduction in margin going forward.

I'm curious about the Q4 financial results, but I don't really expect any surprises either. It doesn't look like Tesla had any enormous capital expenditures--they haven't opened up any new lines or anything. There's some work in China but nothing huge so far. They're still rolling out new Superchargers, but there wasn't some big one-time deployment. So I expect that they kept CapEx at reasonable levels, kept margins similar to Q3 (slight positive from general refinements, slight negative from mid-range model), and so with their announced volumes I think they'll be nicely profitable again.
  #2054  
Old 01-30-2019, 04:15 PM
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Tesla announced their Q4 earnings.

No real surprises to my mind. They're still nicely profitable, despite the reduction in Model 3 sales prices (due to the introduction of the midrange model) and the lack of significant ZEV credits. Good margins and cash flow.

They have a large bond which matures in March, but with Q3 and Q4 they have plenty of cash to pay it off comfortably.

As they projected earlier, gross margins were stable at ~20%. Prices went down, but efficiency went up (20% reduction in labor hours from Q3 to Q4), and those two factors roughly canceled each other.

The investor letter didn't say anything about the $35k model; hopefully that'll come up in the conference call. I know they're still working on a cost-reduced pack redesign.

This may have been Tesla's first "boring" quarter. It's pretty much what you'd expect from a successful, well-established company. Q3 was profitable too, but also a step-change from previous quarters. Q4 is just more of the same. At least as far as the Model 3 is concerned, they're out of their exponential growth phase--they're still growing, but not at quite the same ridiculous rates as before.
  #2055  
Old 01-30-2019, 07:28 PM
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The investor letter didn't say anything about the $35k model; hopefully that'll come up in the conference call.
I saw reports that the SR is expected mid year in a noncommittal way, but that’s probably the $40k version. And full self driving by the end of the year.

Clearly we are still talking Elon time.
  #2056  
Old 01-30-2019, 08:06 PM
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They were pretty noncommittal on the conference call in general. Mid-year for the SR is still just a rough guess and dependent on cost reductions.

At this point, I sorta wonder if it's dependent on Chinese production and/or Model Y. The Chinese Gigafactory has obvious cost benefits; the Model Y could help through sheer volume. But these things would push the SR release past mid-year.
  #2057  
Old 01-31-2019, 09:37 PM
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Speaking of Model Y, it looks like it might be built at GF1. This would make a tour of the Gigafactory even more interesting/appealing than it already is. My understanding is that they were once offering tours as part of the referral program, but I don't know what the current status is.
  #2058  
Old 01-31-2019, 11:15 PM
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I don't think they've ever offered public tours of the Gigafactory, though they said they plan on it. They've offered tours of the Fremont plant for owners for a while now; I did one a while back but I'd like to schedule another.

I have three referrals and they don't say anything about a tour, but that doesn't mean they couldn't add it in the future. Though they are ending the referral program.
  #2059  
Old 02-01-2019, 01:23 PM
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I saw reports that the SR is expected mid year in a noncommittal way, but that’s probably the $40k version. And full self driving by the end of the year.

Clearly we are still talking Elon time.
Yeah, Elon time. The SR has been tentatively scheduled for mid-year for the last two years. I'll believe it when I see it. I get it, if they're making and selling almost 10,000 Model 3s a week, LR and MR, then why bother to chase the SR too hard. If like they say they're working on new battery packaging that will bring the price down, then why wouldn't they be able to use the same cheaper packaging on the more expensive LR and MR models, too, and continue to neglect the SR?
  #2060  
Old 02-02-2019, 04:13 PM
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I don't think they've ever offered public tours of the Gigafactory, though they said they plan on it. They've offered tours of the Fremont plant for owners for a while now; I did one a while back but I'd like to schedule another.

I have three referrals and they don't say anything about a tour, but that doesn't mean they couldn't add it in the future. Though they are ending the referral program.
Sent you a PM.
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  #2061  
Old 02-05-2019, 08:11 PM
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The price of Model 3s was just cut by $1,100, so now the mid-range starts at $42,900. That’s a price I just might be able to swing, but I’m definitely going to test drive the other EVs that will be available this summer when my lease is up.
  #2062  
Old 02-06-2019, 01:09 AM
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That's definitely getting to be a reasonable price. Which others are you looking at? Presumably, the Bolt, the Hyundai Kona, and the Kia Niro at least (I'm assuming the Taycan is not on your radar ). Haven't really looked into whether the latter two are expected to be available in DC.
  #2063  
Old 02-06-2019, 04:51 AM
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Yes, the Bolt and the Kona are the main ones. I like the pics of the Kona a lot, but I’m concerned the back seat may be too tight. But all things being equal, I’d prefer a small SUV/crossover type of body.

I’m not really into the Niro, but it also seems to be getting good reviews so I’ll drive it and see.

I’ve talked to dealerships and both the Kona and Niro are expected in Maryland (a ZEV state) in April.
  #2064  
Old 02-08-2019, 10:39 PM
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For those interested in how the Model 3 performs in cold weather, an owner just posted a review on the r/Saskatoon subreddit. And by cold, I mean for the past several days we've had nightime lows near -40 and daytime highs in the -25C to -30C range. tl:dr summary - about 70% normal range and no trouble with cabin heat.
  #2065  
Old 02-09-2019, 07:13 AM
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Was the 30% reduction due to the cells under-performing, like old-fashioned lead-acid batteries* or were the watts sucked away by the heater?

*I remember this Canadian battery ad where they bragged about their cold starting performance.
  #2066  
Old 02-09-2019, 08:09 AM
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On my i3, in temps below 30 I get about 65% of my range in good weather, due both to using the heater and the impact on the chemistry of the batteries.

There are a few EVs that have heat pumps, and they probably do a little bit better in cold weather due to the more efficient heating.
  #2067  
Old 02-09-2019, 08:24 AM
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Was the 30% reduction due to the cells under-performing, like old-fashioned lead-acid batteries* or were the watts sucked away by the heater?

*I remember this Canadian battery ad where they bragged about their cold starting performance.
It's both. He actually says he gets less than 70% in city driving, which would be because the average speed is less and hence more time spent running the heater per km traveled. Of course if you're just doing a commute in a city the size of Saskatoon you're not going to be concerned about the range reduction in the first place.

While much is made of this range reduction, I rarely hear mentioned the flip side - with IC cars in temperatures approaching -40 there's a very real concern that the engine won't start without a block heater having been plugged in. Your EV might have less range, but you can be confident that it's at least going to move.
  #2068  
Old 02-09-2019, 12:57 PM
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While much is made of this range reduction, I rarely hear mentioned the flip side - with IC cars in temperatures approaching -40 there's a very real concern that the engine won't start without a block heater having been plugged in. Your EV might have less range, but you can be confident that it's at least going to move.
Semi-true. In extreme cold the batteries make less current available to the drivetrain and they accept a lot less current. So the car will move, but not with the performance it normally has.
  #2069  
Old 02-09-2019, 01:40 PM
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So moving slowly is the same as not moving at all? That makes no sense.

Also, range reduction in an IC car is a very real thing at these temps even if it does start. My Subaru would easily get 600 km on a full tank in the summer, I'd be lucky to get 450 in the winter months on the same driving pattern.
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  #2070  
Old 02-09-2019, 01:40 PM
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Nothing works properly at -40. It's just a question of how it doesn't work properly. In an IC car, that's potential failure to start, zero cabin heat until the engine warms up, automatic transmission reluctant or flat refusing to shift until its oil is warmed up. Also heavy inputs for steering and braking, rock hard suspension, and square tires, but I would assume these would also be true of an EV. If you've lived through -40 cold snaps you'll understand when I say I really don't care if the car has less power available and might not have regenerative braking working if I'm guaranteed it will "start" after being parked on the street for several hours and be able to blast heat out the vents the moment I get in the car.
  #2071  
Old 02-10-2019, 06:24 AM
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Hell, I've never been at -40 degrees but I remember a morning in Maine where the radio station 30 miles away was reporting -10 (I think it was a little colder where I was) and the stiff grease on the door hinges made it difficult to get it open. I can only imagine how at -40 something working is like a dancing dog -- it's not so important that it dances well but rather that it dances at all.
  #2072  
Old 02-10-2019, 11:55 AM
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It's both. He actually says he gets less than 70% in city driving, which would be because the average speed is less and hence more time spent running the heater per km traveled. Of course if you're just doing a commute in a city the size of Saskatoon you're not going to be concerned about the range reduction in the first place.

While much is made of this range reduction, I rarely hear mentioned the flip side - with IC cars in temperatures approaching -40 there's a very real concern that the engine won't start without a block heater having been plugged in. Your EV might have less range, but you can be confident that it's at least going to move.
What happens to an EV if it sits out in the cold unplugged?
  #2073  
Old 02-10-2019, 12:39 PM
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What happens to an EV if it sits out in the cold unplugged?
The batteries get cold. Also the car does have a standby draw that slows drains charge, it depends on the EV model but I've heard it can be 30 watts for a Tesla. (so it would lose about .75 kWh out of the 65 kWh capacity per day).

Batteries themselves also self-discharge a little bit, depends on the cell chemistry.

Cold batteries perform poorly. So when you get into the vehicle it then needs time to warm up before the vehicle has full performance available. And this warming up sucks power.

What this means is that if the car's batteries are nearly flat, it is a supremely bad idea to park the car in the cold and leave it. Lithium batteries are actively being destroyed over time when they are under about 20% charge, and on top of that when the batteries are very low and you leave it parked, you are making the destruction worse. And when you go to start the vehicle up again, you are going to eat into the last drops of power just to warm your batteries up.

Furthermore, it seems that the standby drain is about twice as bad in cold weather, possibly due to the batteries being inefficient when they are cold (they have higher resistance in the circuit). So instead of drawing 30 watts at standby it's drawing about 60.

Anyways, all these problems are easily avoided...if your parking space has a plug. Even a 15 amp/120 volt plug. Unfortunately for us apartment and condo dwellers, the EV revolution is going to be a bit delayed as a result of this problem.

Last edited by SamuelA; 02-10-2019 at 12:40 PM.
  #2074  
Old 02-10-2019, 02:24 PM
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Cold batteries perform poorly. So when you get into the vehicle it then needs time to warm up before the vehicle has full performance available. And this warming up sucks power.
When the battery is cold regeneration is limited, and if it is cold enough power delivery can also be limited. The Model 3 shows this as dots on the power line, so for example something like:
Code:
......................_____^_______________....
To left of center the solid line represents how much regen is available, and to the right it represents how much power delivery is available. I've only driven in temperatures down to 0F, and I've only ever seen a few dots of reduced power. A few dots of reduction would only be noticeable on a drag strip, really. The number of dots is also depended on the level of charge. For example, at 70% charge I might lose 90% of my regen at 30F, but at 30% charge at 30F I might only lose 10% of my regen. I've just made those numbers up, but it is a multi-dimensional relationship between regen, temperature, and state of charge.

The other thing that happens is "snow flake mode" in which some of the batteries charge is not available because of the low temperature. This is represented by a snow flake next to the battery level indicator, and a blue area of the battery on the charging screen. Functionally, it means reduced range. So, 10% of the battery might be blue, but when the battery warms up that 10% will be available for use---it isn't discharged, just reserved.

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What this means is that if the car's batteries are nearly flat, it is a supremely bad idea to park the car in the cold and leave it. Lithium batteries are actively being destroyed over time when they are under about 20% charge, and on top of that when the batteries are very low and you leave it parked, you are making the destruction worse. And when you go to start the vehicle up again, you are going to eat into the last drops of power just to warm your batteries up.
Is that a six year old article? The current wisdom from Tesla is that using the battery until it is almost completely discharged is not a problem, and letting it sit at a low charge is only a problem in so much as you won't be able to go very far until it charges. The big damage to battery chemistry happens when holding the battery at 100% charge for an extended period of time. Don't worry about charging to 100% the night before a trip, but don't charge to 100% as standard procedure. Even charging to 90% will make negligible differences on the battery lifetime. I usually charge to 75%.

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Anyways, all these problems are easily avoided...if your parking space has a plug. Even a 15 amp/120 volt plug. Unfortunately for us apartment and condo dwellers, the EV revolution is going to be a bit delayed as a result of this problem.
If set to charge to 80%, the car will charge that high. It will let the charge drop to 75% or something before it starts to charge again. It won't draw power continuously to stay at 80%. As Musk tweets though, a happy Tesla is a plugged in Tesla.
  #2075  
Old 02-10-2019, 02:52 PM
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If set to charge to 80%, the car will charge that high. It will let the charge drop to 75% or something before it starts to charge again. It won't draw power continuously to stay at 80%. As Musk tweets though, a happy Tesla is a plugged in Tesla.
My first article was from 2018. It does lose charge just sitting somewhere. Apparently about 1% of the range per day in the model 3.

And at about twice the rate or higher (2.3% per day) if parked in the cold.

So yeah, better plug it in. And don't buy one if you don't have normal access to a plug.
  #2076  
Old 02-10-2019, 03:35 PM
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Anyways, all these problems are easily avoided...if your parking space has a plug. Even a 15 amp/120 volt plug. Unfortunately for us apartment and condo dwellers, the EV revolution is going to be a bit delayed as a result of this problem.
Sounds like great care is needed in extreme cold to avoid damaging an EV battery. Just have to hope you don't lose power.
  #2077  
Old 02-10-2019, 03:45 PM
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a reason to add to the list for buying an emergency generator.
  #2078  
Old 02-10-2019, 03:52 PM
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a reason to add to the list for buying an emergency generator.
No need for that, it just means don't go on a long trip, come all the way back, park outside, and not plug in.

One or two excursions to low charge levels won't kill it. And also you do need a plug. Either you need one at your apartment or at work or at your house if you have one. Until then, the best you can do is buy a hybrid.
  #2079  
Old 02-10-2019, 04:54 PM
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Sounds like great care is needed in extreme cold to avoid damaging an EV battery. Just have to hope you don't lose power.
I’ve seen nothing to indicate “great care” is needed to avoid damaging an EV battery in the cold. Either in this thread or elsewhere.

Once again, when EVs are the topic, you seem to have your conclusion pre-made.
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Old 02-10-2019, 06:25 PM
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Test drove a 3 a bit ago. That regen is more aggressive than my braking usually is!

Serious question - it slows the car down pretty fast and as it is not braking does so without brake lights coming on. Any reports of that causing any problems? (Getting rear ended as a result.)
  #2081  
Old 02-10-2019, 06:38 PM
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it slows the car down pretty fast and as it is not braking does so without brake lights coming on.
Not true! The brake lights do come on. I believe they're tied to an accelerometer, so easing slowly off the accelerator won't trigger them, but max regen will. I'm not sure about the exact threshold, but I haven't heard of any rear-ending problems.
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Old 02-10-2019, 08:35 PM
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The batteries get cold. Also the car does have a standby draw that slows drains charge, it depends on the EV model but I've heard it can be 30 watts for a Tesla. (so it would lose about .75 kWh out of the 65 kWh capacity per day).

Batteries themselves also self-discharge a little bit, depends on the cell chemistry.

Cold batteries perform poorly. So when you get into the vehicle it then needs time to warm up before the vehicle has full performance available. And this warming up sucks power.

What this means is that if the car's batteries are nearly flat, it is a supremely bad idea to park the car in the cold and leave it. Lithium batteries are actively being destroyed over time when they are under about 20% charge, and on top of that when the batteries are very low and you leave it parked, you are making the destruction worse. And when you go to start the vehicle up again, you are going to eat into the last drops of power just to warm your batteries up.

Furthermore, it seems that the standby drain is about twice as bad in cold weather, possibly due to the batteries being inefficient when they are cold (they have higher resistance in the circuit). So instead of drawing 30 watts at standby it's drawing about 60.

Anyways, all these problems are easily avoided...if your parking space has a plug. Even a 15 amp/120 volt plug. Unfortunately for us apartment and condo dwellers, the EV revolution is going to be a bit delayed as a result of this problem.
The batteries may also expend current keeping warm. My Volt does, and GM recommends keeping it plugged in even if fully charged; I'm sure this is true for Teslas.
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Old 02-10-2019, 08:53 PM
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I’ve seen nothing to indicate “great care” is needed to avoid damaging an EV battery in the cold. Either in this thread or elsewhere.

Once again, when EVs are the topic, you seem to have your conclusion pre-made.
I was responding to what was posted regarding cold weather and low battery charge. I have lost tool batteries to cold weather and questioned what happens to an EV. 2.3% loss per day needs to be taken into consideration during winter. The higher discharge rate in cold weather is certainly due in part because the car has to keep the battery warm. "Don't leave the car sitting around on low charge in winter" comes under the heading of great care.

I own different cars for different purposes. I routinely leave them sitting around for weeks if I don't need them. Cold temps have no effect on a low gas tank. I think it's important to note the need to maintain a certain level of charge on an EV in the winter.

Once again when EV's are the topic, you seem to have the conclusion that there are no concerns to be addressed.

Last edited by Magiver; 02-10-2019 at 08:55 PM.
  #2084  
Old 02-10-2019, 08:54 PM
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Well, I keep my IC car plugged in when the weather's like this anyways, so I'm not seeing needing to keep an EV plugged in as a disadvantage. :P
  #2085  
Old 02-10-2019, 08:59 PM
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"Don't leave the car sitting around on low charge in winter" comes under the heading of great care.
“Great care?” Give me a break. I might as well call filling up your gas tank a “hazardous handling of toxic materials that require extraordinary safety precautions for which inexperienced people could easily kill themselves.”
  #2086  
Old 02-10-2019, 08:59 PM
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Test drove a 3 a bit ago. That regen is more aggressive than my braking usually is!

Serious question - it slows the car down pretty fast and as it is not braking does so without brake lights coming on. Any reports of that causing any problems? (Getting rear ended as a result.)
Didn't someone post that you can adjust the regen rate?
  #2087  
Old 02-10-2019, 09:10 PM
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"Don't leave the car sitting around on low charge in winter" comes under the heading of great care.
By the way, you know what my car warns me of when it’s 20 degrees out, I have a low battery, and I turn the car off? It displays a warning to not leave the car at a low state of charge for a long period of time.

And you know what happens when it’s 85 degrees out, I have a low battery, and I turn the car off? The exact same message.

So not leaving the car at a low state of charge is just not done under any circumstances. It’s as common sense to an EV owner as it would be for an ICE owner not to leave their car running in their garage all night. But, I guess ICE owners just exercise “great care” not to poison their whole family with CO. Right?
  #2088  
Old 02-10-2019, 09:39 PM
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“Great care?” Give me a break. I might as well call filling up your gas tank a “hazardous handling of toxic materials that require extraordinary safety precautions for which inexperienced people could easily kill themselves.”
uh huh. An EV will maintain battery temperature in cold weather to keep it from being damaged. That takes power. If you let an EV sit in subzero weather without charging it then it's going to damage the car at some point.

It's senseless not to take steps to avoid this damage and you seem intent on doubling down on this unnecessary exchange.
  #2089  
Old 02-10-2019, 09:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post
Not true! The brake lights do come on. I believe they're tied to an accelerometer, so easing slowly off the accelerator won't trigger them, but max regen will. I'm not sure about the exact threshold, but I haven't heard of any rear-ending problems.
Good to hear about the brake lights coming on.

Not sure if I'd try to get used to that vehicle standard regen rate or adjust it closer to what I am used to so I could "coast" to the light. Keeping it at the high level would definitely alter my driving style. My daughter was in the car with me and complained of nausea ...
  #2090  
Old 02-10-2019, 10:04 PM
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B It’s as common sense to an EV owner as it would be for an ICE owner not to leave their car running in their garage all night. But, I guess ICE owners just exercise “great care” not to poison their whole family with CO. Right?
It's only common sense if you're made aware of it and even then people manage to pour hot coffee in the lap and blame someone else even though everybody knows hot coffee is hot.

Common sense would tell you to expect a drop in EV range in the winter yet without knowing how much of a drop it's a guessing game until that information becomes known. Leaving a car sit for weeks is not a problem for ICE cars so people need to know it's an issue with EV's.

Last edited by Magiver; 02-10-2019 at 10:05 PM.
  #2091  
Old 02-10-2019, 10:49 PM
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Didn't someone post that you can adjust the regen rate?
Yes, Tesla has a low and high regen setting.

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Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Not sure if I'd try to get used to that vehicle standard regen rate or adjust it closer to what I am used to so I could "coast" to the light. Keeping it at the high level would definitely alter my driving style. My daughter was in the car with me and complained of nausea ...
There's an adjustment period but eventually it becomes second nature. Initially, it's easy to drive in a somewhat uncomfortable manner if you expect it to coast like a gas car. Eventually you learn to ease off the accelerator instead of just lifting your foot immediately. You can also enable "chill mode", which has basically the same effect (for acceleration and deceleration), but really it's just better to just learn how it works and modulate the accelerator appropriately. Not flooring it at every light also helps passenger comfort, but it's tough to restrain oneself .
  #2092  
Old 02-10-2019, 10:50 PM
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Not sure if I'd try to get used to that vehicle standard regen rate or adjust it closer to what I am used to so I could "coast" to the light. Keeping it at the high level would definitely alter my driving style. My daughter was in the car with me and complained of nausea ...
In the Model 3 there are only two settings, regular and low. A bit more time in the driver's seat and you will get used to keeping your foot on the accelerator just enough to achieve the level of deceleration you want.
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uh huh. An EV will maintain battery temperature in cold weather to keep it from being damaged. That takes power. If you let an EV sit in subzero weather without charging it then it's going to damage the car at some point.
The Model 3 does not have a battery heater, and will do nothing to maintain the battery temperature when the car is idle and it is cold. It does circulate coolant through the motors and battery, and is capable of passing current through the motors without generating torque, so that it only generates heat. The coolant can then carry this heat to the battery, but there is no controllable mode to heat the battery. As far as I know, the only time this is even used is if it is necessary to raise the battery's temperature to charge. In that case it is using external power, not battery power, to heat the battery.

The damage is caused when charging a cold battery, which is why regen is reduced when cold. The battery can still discharge when cold, though the rate and amount of discharge may be reduced.

Electric, gas, and diesel cars all are different and it should be no surprise to anybody that under different conditions they will behave differently. Internal combustion cars produce a tremendous amount of waste heat. Some of that heat can be used to warm the cabin and defrost the windows. Electric cars do not produce nearly as much waste heat, so they require electrical heaters to do the same. This affects range.

Current battery chemistry loses some charge over time. There are also lots of computers in the Tesla which consume battery power, too.

How did the gas heaters on old VW Bugs affect range? (That's a serious question, I can't imagine they burn much gas, but has to be some.)
  #2093  
Old 02-11-2019, 11:37 PM
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Good to hear about the brake lights coming on.
The brake lights on the onscreen car come on when the brake lights are on, so you can tell whether they are on or not. Apparently this is hard to see if your Model 3 is red.

I spent my first week with regen set to low, and acceleration set to Chill, and the transition was pretty easy. For ice/snow, it is recommended to drive with regen set to low, otherwise I have it on the higher setting now that I'm used to it.
  #2094  
Old 02-13-2019, 01:10 PM
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Well this is interesting. A business called Quality Control Systems sued NHTSA to get the data that the Feds used to publish the report that Tesla's Autopilot made cars 40% safer. They looked at the data and they assert that NHTSA made serious errors, such that Autopilot may make cars be 59% more likely to get into crashes.

I have no damned idea about the math or the conclusion, but I do think it is dishonest of NHTSA to use data to make a safety-related claim, and then try to bury the data.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02...hat-was-bogus/
  #2095  
Old 02-13-2019, 03:06 PM
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Well this is interesting. A business called Quality Control Systems sued NHTSA to get the data that the Feds used to publish the report that Tesla's Autopilot made cars 40% safer. They looked at the data and they assert that NHTSA made serious errors, such that Autopilot may make cars be 59% more likely to get into crashes.

I have no damned idea about the math or the conclusion, but I do think it is dishonest of NHTSA to use data to make a safety-related claim, and then try to bury the data.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02...hat-was-bogus/
I took a look at this data, and I think it is impossible to interpret if my assumptions are correct. Explanation below.

Several numbers are reported which the raw data gives weird names, but here is what they are in more understandable terms:
  1. Odometer reading at the end of data collection (total miles)
  2. The last odometer reading taken before autopilot was installed
  3. The first odometer reading after autopilot was installed
QCS only uses the data for cars where the value of 2 and 3 (above) are the same. This is where I make new assumptions:
  • Autosteer can only be enabled when data sharing is also enabled. This is how things work on my Model 3 now, if it is not how things worked when autosteer was first introduced, then my whole conjecture is wrong.
  • Some privacy minded people will have disabled data sharing, and thus not have consistent odometer readings. This is supported by some cars having, for example, 463 miles as the last reported reading prior to autosteer being installed, and 20,147 miles as the first reading after autosteer is installed. My interpretation is that data sharing was disabled after 463 miles, and re-enabled at 20,147 miles.
  • Some of those people will want to use autosteer, so they will then enable data sharing, as in the example above.
  • Therefore (and this is where I disagree with QCS) the correct odometer reading to use when determining pre-autosteer mileage is the first reading after autosteer has been installed. Even if autosteer was installed many miles before that, autosteer was not usable until data sharing was re-enabled.
The airbag deployment is reported as two variables:
  1. Was the airbag deployed before autosteer
  2. Was the airbag deployed after autosteer
And this is where my problem lies in interpreting this data. My cutoffs used to make the before/after determination are different from what the NHTSA and QCS use. The odometer reading at airbag deployment is not provided.

QCS makes a big deal about not knowing the mileage at the time autosteer was installed, but I believe that the first odometer reading after autosteer is installed is going to coincide with when autosteer was actually enabled by the owner. QCS also draws their conclusions based on about 5,714 out of 43,781 cars. To me, that does not seem like a representative sample. The question is, does whatever makes those 5,714 cars different from the rest correlate with airbag deployment?

So, until the NHTSA releases the data with the odometer reading at the time of airbag deployment, I do not think any conclusions can be drawn from this data.


I'm sure there's some error in my logic or my data manipulation, as this is just something I did while eating lunch. Here is the raw data as released in an Excel spreadsheet (the worst possible data analysis platform).
  #2096  
Old 02-19-2019, 10:02 AM
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Here's a mystery.

For several months now, the Tesla order page has stated that the Standard Range battery (~220 miles) would be available in 4-6 months. It's said that since roughly October. This weekend, the reference to the Standard Range battery was eliminated.

There's two theories: first, that Tesla is basically backing off of this $35,000(ish) version of the car, because it just isn't doable at this point. This camp points to how the Full Self Driving option disappeared from the order screen quite some time ago, because that feature seems to be indefinitely delayed as well.

The other camp says that maybe this is a sign that the Standard Range version is imminent, and Tesla doesn't want to cannibalize its orders for the ~$43k Medium Range car over the next few months, since people may decide they would rather wait to order the Standard Range car in a few months and save 10% or more of the purchase price.

Tesla isn't commenting so far.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesl...website-2019-2
  #2097  
Old 02-28-2019, 04:30 PM
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Looks like the second theory is correct. The real $35k Model 3 is available for order now. 220 mile range, as promised, and a real sans-rebate $35k price. They also have a "partial premium" interior for a couple of grand more. The LR/PUP model also seems to be back.
  #2098  
Old 02-28-2019, 05:45 PM
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I'm finally able to figure out how much it cost me to get the long range one, instead of waiting for the short range one, which was my original plan. After factoring in the lost tax credit, the maintenance I would have had to do to my old car, and the gas savings ($400 in 6 months), it cost me $8-9000 net to get the long range instead of waiting.

For that extra money I got the car 6-9 months earlier, dual motor, big battery, and full premium interior which includes free streaming music. The dual motor is great, and I would have been disappointed it's not offered on the short range version. The bigger battery and premium interior are nice, but probably not worth thousands to me. We use the streaming music all the time, but it's also probably not worth that much to me.
  #2099  
Old 03-01-2019, 08:33 AM
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Looks like the second theory is correct. The real $35k Model 3 is available for order now. 220 mile range, as promised, and a real sans-rebate $35k price. They also have a "partial premium" interior for a couple of grand more. The LR/PUP model also seems to be back.
I'm very happy about the options. I'd like to know what the difference is between the basic navigation (on the SR models) and the enhanced navigation (on the MR and LR models). If it isn't a huge difference, I might go with the partial premium... if it is a big difference, then the MR.

I see that they tweaked the Autopilot offerings, so the cost has gone down but features stripped out, such that it's $3k for adaptive cruise control. If you want navigate on Autopilot, parking, and summon, you now need to buy Full Self Driving for $3k plus $5k.

Doesn't really apply to me, though, because I am just not interested, but a notable change. And oh yeah, Tesla is closing the vast majority of its showrooms in order to lower prices on cars. I think that's a good idea.
  #2100  
Old 03-01-2019, 03:54 PM
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I'd like to know what the difference is between the basic navigation (on the SR models) and the enhanced navigation (on the MR and LR models).
The package description says "Satellite-view maps with live traffic visualization and navigation". The satellite view looks nice but doesn't have any real utility value (it's just like the satellite vs. maps view in Google Maps). The live traffic is more useful but I guess it depends on how often you drive through uncertain traffic situations.

The store closings make sense to me. Apparently the vast majority of purchases were online to start with. Combined with their new 7-day/1000 mi return policy, there's just a lot less need for a physical presence. People can rent a car on Turo if they really want to try out a car with no hassle.

The market didn't seem happy with the announcement, particularly that they'd have a Q1 loss, but that was always in the cards. They'd previously said that they hoped to make a small Q1 profit, with the caveat that one-time losses might put them in the red. It sounds like they'll have some moderate one-time costs in Q1 with the store closings, severance pay, etc.
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