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  #251  
Old 07-16-2018, 10:21 AM
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John Mace John Mace is offline
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On the contrary, I remembered it, and refuse to be bound by your inability to remember it. Start a diary. “Dear Diary, Today I predicted Trump would resign in a week and everybody on the SDMB cheered. It was the bestest day ever.”
Ive got a prediction: That ain't gonna happen (emphasis added). You can hold me to it!!
  #252  
Old 07-16-2018, 12:39 PM
Evil Economist Evil Economist is offline
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I save $700 per year from the Obamacare mandate being eliminated. MAGA.
So.....you don't have insurance? I suspect at some point in your life you will wish you only had to pay $700.
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  #253  
Old 07-16-2018, 04:13 PM
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So.....you don't have insurance? I suspect at some point in your life you will wish you only had to pay $700.
I'm guessing the "$700 per year" is the penalty assessed on those who don't buy insurance (due to the "mandate").
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  #254  
Old 07-16-2018, 08:12 PM
Evil Economist Evil Economist is offline
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I'm guessing the "$700 per year" is the penalty assessed on those who don't buy insurance (due to the "mandate").
The mandate was designed so that for most people it would be more expensive to pay the mandate then to simply get insurance, so this guy could (probably) have gotten insurance for less than he paid in penalties, and as bonus he would have had insurance. Even if insurance had been more than the penalty, it's generally better to have insurance than not to have it.
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"...the social ills of the nonwhite inner-city poor had their origin not in some mysterious flaws of African-American culture but in economic factors—specifically, the disappearance of good blue-collar jobs. Sure enough, when rural whites faced a similar loss of economic opportunity, they experienced a similar social unraveling." - Krugman
  #255  
Old 07-16-2018, 09:25 PM
Exapno Mapcase Exapno Mapcase is offline
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I blew off this thread when it started because it was obviously ridiculous. Trump relishes shoving his victory in everyones' faces far too much to ever resign.

But in today's interview with Jeff Glor he said that he had a great life before but being president is ever better. He really likes it.

So my mind is now open. It's a given that Trump lies every time he opens his mouth. If he insists he never said something, you know that someone is on file and easily searched. If he accuses the Democrats of doing something, you know for sure that he's the one doing it. If he says he's the smartest or best or greatest, you know for sure that he's second-rate at best.

So if he says he's loving being the President, you know that he hates every minute of it that's not spent in front of cheering crowds in campaign mode, the part of the job that's actually being the President.

The odds have gone up tremendously.
  #256  
Old 07-17-2018, 07:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Evil Economist View Post
The mandate was designed so that for most people it would be more expensive to pay the mandate then to simply get insurance, so this guy could (probably) have gotten insurance for less than he paid in penalties, and as bonus he would have had insurance. Even if insurance had been more than the penalty, it's generally better to have insurance than not to have it.
I agree with your general points, though am skeptical that an American could be paying only $58 per month for health insurance that would actually provide reasonable coverage. At that price the co-pay for doctor visits, for example, would be something like $500 per visit, wouldn't it?
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  #257  
Old 07-17-2018, 08:27 PM
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Zero chance of resignation. It wouldn't satisfy his Lord Putin and he'd have to rely on milquetoast Pence for Pardons. With all the evidence we've had against him since 1992 and now, he'll still win the GOP nomination for 2020.
  #258  
Old 07-17-2018, 10:58 PM
Elendil's Heir Elendil's Heir is offline
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...The odds have gone up tremendously.
You might even say they're huuuuuuge.
  #259  
Old 07-18-2018, 05:17 AM
HMS Irruncible HMS Irruncible is offline
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I blew off this thread when it started because it was obviously ridiculous. Trump relishes shoving his victory in everyones' faces far too much to ever resign.
That's true, but if he's ever able to take some opportunity that makes the winning the presidency look like sloppy seconds, of course he'll do that in a heartbeat. I can't imagine what that would be, but you know he'd do it.

Apart from that, I couldn't see what would force a resignation other than a total implosion for causes I've already described, and it seems like he's living on borrowed time.
  #260  
Old 07-18-2018, 07:42 AM
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The Helsinki Fiasco not only increases the odds of resignation/impeachment, it also increases the odds of a primary challenge in 2020. Republicans have their tax cuts, they have their deregulation, they have their right wing justices, they don't need Donald for shit. One of their number can freely run against him and it seems to me that at least one will.
  #261  
Old 07-18-2018, 07:57 AM
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You might even say they're huuuuuuge.
Bigly.
  #262  
Old 07-18-2018, 08:08 AM
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The Helsinki Fiasco not only increases the odds of resignation/impeachment, it also increases the odds of a primary challenge in 2020. Republicans have their tax cuts, they have their deregulation, they have their right wing justices, they don't need Donald for shit. One of their number can freely run against him and it seems to me that at least one will.
It's a nice theory, but it keeps on being disproved by the facts. They keep having opportunities to stand up to him, and they keep on passing them up. Can't see why that would change in 2020.

And who's going to vote for a challenger anyway? This is Trump's party now, lock, stock, and barrel.

Kasich will probably challenge him in 2020, but that doesn't mean much because Kasich isn't holding public office anymore. And hardly anyone will vote for him if he does.
  #263  
Old 07-18-2018, 08:16 AM
Elendil's Heir Elendil's Heir is offline
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...Kasich will probably challenge him in 2020, but that doesn't mean much because Kasich isn't holding public office anymore. And hardly anyone will vote for him if he does.
Actually, he's still Governor of Ohio. But he won't be in 2020.

Jeff Flake is making noises like he might run; he's even visited New Hampshire.
  #264  
Old 07-18-2018, 09:07 AM
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I think Russia will be used as the reason to impeach Trump, if it ever happens. But if it ever happens, if Republicans actually have the stones to challenge their Dear Leader, it would be because they're comfortable enough breaking with the real powers behind the scenes who are underwriting their political campaigns and careers. Things would have to be so bad that the hardcore Trumpists see the writing on the wall and decide their political careers are over, and the others who have been careful not to get too close to Trump would have to finally realize that he's weakened to the point where they no longer have to give him political fellatio anymore.

My guess is, Trump's trade war would do the trick, and if you can read past the Russia headlines, you'd see that senators like Orrin Hatch are already alarmed enough that they're challenging the president on this. In fact, they're challenging the president on his disastrous trade war more than they are his treachery in Helsinki - because they know it's going to be an unmitigated disaster that could lead to a major recession and spell the end of the party.

I've said it before: despite what the language of the Constitution may say, presidents don't really get forced from office for high crimes and misdemeanors; if they got chased out of the Oval Office, it's because the nation's in a bad mood and wants the government to know about it. An impeachment is a peaceful coup mechanism. Russia would be the legal justification for Trump's removal, but it by itself wouldn't be the true reason for it. Widespread unemployment and the feeling among most Americans that they really are losing the ability to achieve a comfortable lifestyle...that would be the real reason.

Last edited by asahi; 07-18-2018 at 09:08 AM.
  #265  
Old 07-18-2018, 09:10 AM
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Actually, he's still Governor of Ohio. But he won't be in 2020.

Jeff Flake is making noises like he might run; he's even visited New Hampshire.
Yeah, but he kept it short. He realized he forgot to pack his balls and left 'em in Arizona.
  #266  
Old 07-18-2018, 02:46 PM
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If he resigns, it's at the State of the Union address in 2019 - that way, Pence is still eligible to be elected twice. Not that he would be, mind you...

However, I am in the "he's not going to resign" camp.
  #267  
Old 07-18-2018, 04:52 PM
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If he resigns, it's at the State of the Union address in 2019 - that way, Pence is still eligible to be elected twice. Not that he would be, mind you...

However, I am in the "he's not going to resign" camp.
Oh, as if Trump would either care about Pence's possible length of tenure, or care about the welfare of the GOP. Please!

But on the question of whether or not Trump would resign: he would do so in a heartbeat if these two changes occurred:

**Congress puts in place policies that will cut Trump's income from the Presidency--for example a credible threat that if he doesn't stop billing the taxpayer for his many golf trips, and stop accepting foreign bribes at his hotels, they WILL vote to impeach, and

**Rally crowds dwindle and stop cheering.

The latter could happen if Trump keeps displaying the groveling cowardice toward Putin that he demonstrated on July 16. Though Trumpites make excuses, the show of cringing deference Trump treated them to at Helsinki will ....bother them. They like their bullies defiant and arrogant---not cowering and apologizing.
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  #268  
Old 07-18-2018, 05:01 PM
k9bfriender k9bfriender is offline
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Oh, as if Trump would either care about Pence's possible length of tenure, or care about the welfare of the GOP. Please!
Trump would wait one day past to prevent Pence from being eligible for two terms just out of spite.
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But on the question of whether or not Trump would resign: he would do so in a heartbeat if these two changes occurred:

**Congress puts in place policies that will cut Trump's income from the Presidency--for example a credible threat that if he doesn't stop billing the taxpayer for his many golf trips, and stop accepting foreign bribes at his hotels, they WILL vote to impeach, and

**Rally crowds dwindle and stop cheering.

The latter could happen if Trump keeps displaying the groveling cowardice toward Putin that he demonstrated on July 16. Though Trumpites make excuses, the show of cringing deference Trump treated them to at Helsinki will ....bother them. They like their bullies defiant and arrogant---not cowering and apologizing.
This is assuming of course, that they don't start coming to rallies in order to pay homage to Vlad and his puppet.
  #269  
Old 07-18-2018, 05:15 PM
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Sherrerd Sherrerd is offline
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Trump would wait one day past to prevent Pence from being eligible for two terms just out of spite.
Yep. That's the one I'd bet on.

Trump has no gratitude at all for the arduous mental conditioning Pence has put himself through, in order to prevent any facial-expression slips while gazing at Trump.


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This is assuming of course, that they don't start coming to rallies in order to pay homage to Vlad and his puppet.
Well, I suppose that's possible. Seems too psychologically-sophisticated for that bunch, though: 'let's go see the weakling puppet so we can cheer for the puppet-master, despite the puppet thinking we're cheering for him, the fool!'
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  #270  
Old 07-18-2018, 05:26 PM
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Liberals continue to underestimate him, amazing. Get yr act together if you want him bounced in '20.
  #271  
Old 07-18-2018, 05:31 PM
Vinyl Turnip Vinyl Turnip is offline
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Thanks for yr advice. What do we owe u?
  #272  
Old 07-18-2018, 06:04 PM
Exapno Mapcase Exapno Mapcase is offline
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I've said it before: despite what the language of the Constitution may say, presidents don't really get forced from office for high crimes and misdemeanors; if they got chased out of the Oval Office, it's because the nation's in a bad mood and wants the government to know about it. An impeachment is a peaceful coup mechanism. Russia would be the legal justification for Trump's removal, but it by itself wouldn't be the true reason for it. Widespread unemployment and the feeling among most Americans that they really are losing the ability to achieve a comfortable lifestyle...that would be the real reason.
There are too few data points to come down on either side.

The nation was not in a bad mood in 1868, but you could make a case for a coup. Stanton and the Radical Republicans were violently at odds with Andrew Johnson from the time he took office. Johnson is in a battle with Buchanan for worst president so if a Congressional coup was ever needed it was then. They shouldn't have based it on an unconstitutional law, though.

Nixon is complicated. The nation still mostly supported him and while the Democrats controlled the House, the party had a large number of Southern conservatives. Without Nixon's idiotic actions nothing would ever have happened to him.

You can make a better case for Clinton's impeachment because Congress had evolved into the rabidly partisan beast it is today. Gingrich overreached. He failed very much because he didn't have the nation behind him. In fact, the Republican lost seats in the November 1998 elections, a huge red flag for a December impeachment that Gingrich was insane to ignore.

Trump would also be complicated. He still has 90% support among Republicans (and 75% support him on Russia). His party also controls Congress. He'd have to be found in bed with the proverbial dead girl or live boy for impeachment to become thinkable., even in the Dems take control in November. But if it does, it will be Nixonian, purely a result of his idiotic actions and not because the country is in a bad way.
  #273  
Old 07-19-2018, 05:45 AM
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Liberals continue to underestimate him, amazing. Get yr act together if you want him bounced in '20.
We're not remotely underestimating him - he remains a venal narcissistic puppet of the Russians. However, we have been significantly underestimating the degree to which Republicans are willing to facilitate collusion, obstruction of justice and generally corrupt practices in order to solidify their grip on power. But if you wish to continue gloating that a disturbing percentage of modern American conservatives are anti-democratic traitors, please proceed.
  #274  
Old 07-19-2018, 09:58 AM
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We're not remotely underestimating him - he remains a venal narcissistic puppet of the Russians. However, we have been significantly underestimating the degree to which Republicans are willing to facilitate collusion, obstruction of justice and generally corrupt practices in order to solidify their grip on power. But if you wish to continue gloating that a disturbing percentage of modern American conservatives are anti-democratic traitors, please proceed.
I am neither gloating nor am I a conservative. And I am not denying Trump's many malfeasances. I am just saying, wishful thinking won't make him go away.
  #275  
Old 07-19-2018, 12:46 PM
Elendil's Heir Elendil's Heir is offline
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I enjoy wishful thinking as much as anyone, but I will spread the word, donate, volunteer and vote to ensure that Donald Trump isn't the one raising his hand over a Bible on Jan. 20, 2021.
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