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  #51  
Old 05-27-2020, 10:13 AM
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Yes, I've been watching people react as needed.
  #52  
Old 05-27-2020, 11:24 AM
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If I had to take a guess at what the second wave will look like I would think it might be a long slow rolling wave with a much longer peak. Social distancing might be all we need to slow the spread enough for a controlled passing through of the virus. Protecting those vulnerable will take a huge load off of the hospitals and will smaller death numbers coming in possibly a lot of fear by the public will be alleviated allowing things to get back to normal much sooner.
  #53  
Old 05-27-2020, 11:38 AM
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Then I guess it's time to party. Enjoy your wading pools, may I recommend a nice conga line for afters?
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Why would I say that? It's not my opinion, nor is it correct.

'kay. Do not say you were not warned.
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Never mind. Nothing will happen. In 15 days it will disappear like a miracle.
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Yes, I've been watching people react as needed.
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The Tooth, you appear to be interested more in giving snarky responses rather than contributing to the thread. What you are doing is verging on trolling. I'm instructing you to either make more substantive responses or stop posting in the thread.

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  #54  
Old 05-27-2020, 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted by HoneyBadgerDC View Post
If I had to take a guess at what the second wave will look like I would think it might be a long slow rolling wave with a much longer peak. Social distancing might be all we need to slow the spread enough for a controlled passing through of the virus. Protecting those vulnerable will take a huge load off of the hospitals and will smaller death numbers coming in possibly a lot of fear by the public will be alleviated allowing things to get back to normal much sooner.
About what I'm expecting.
  #55  
Old 05-28-2020, 02:50 AM
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Two weeks after court scraps Safer at Home, Wisconsin sets record for new coronavirus cases and deaths in Madison365.com

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Two weeks to the day after the Wisconsin Supreme Court overturned Governor Tony Evers’ “Safer at Home” order, the state has set a one-day record for new coronavirus cases, as 642 positive cases were identified in the past 24 hours, bringing the total to 16,565 — and increasing the number of currently active cases by more than 10 percent.

Additionally, the day was the deadliest so far, as 22 people succumbed to COVID19 since this time Tuesday, bringing the total death toll to 539.

The percentage of coronavirus tests coming back positive also rose from 3.6 percent to 5.8 in the past 24 hours.
I'm not sure what Wisconsin's alternatives are at this point. I haven't followed it closely enough to know if that includes all enforcement of social distancing as well.

Related article:

Wisconsin Business Owner Bans Wearing of Masks After Court Overturns Stay-At-Home Order

Quote:
A Wisconsin business owner banned the use of masks in her buildings Friday, after the state Supreme Court overturned the state's stay-at-home order.

Annie's Campground, near Gresham, Wisconsin, posted the new rule on the establishment's Facebook page: "Masks are NOT allowed in the buildings for safety sake. They are viewed as a robbery in progress and will be handled that way."
. . .
"Now, I do understand that there are people who wear a mask because of their delicate health situation, like cancer or a recent surgery. I know these people and their stature is much different that a 6'2" male entering an establishment aggressively with intent to do harm," Retzlaff stated.
If you're a 6'2" male with a delicate health situation, you're out of luck going to that business.
  #56  
Old 05-28-2020, 04:32 AM
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Fauci says second wave of coronavirus infections is 'not inevitable': 'We can prevent this'

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Anthony Fauci, the nation's top expert on infectious diseases, said Wednesday that a second wave of coronavirus infections is "not inevitable" if people are vigilant about proper mitigation efforts.
. . .
"And particularly when people start thinking about the fall. I want people to really appreciate that, it could happen but it is not inevitable," he added.

Last month, Fauci had said in multiple interviews that a second wave of COVID-19 was indeed unavoidable.

"It’s inevitable that the coronavirus will return next season. ... When it does, how we handle it, will determine our fate,” he told NBC News.
I feel like there's a divide between people who say a second wave is inevitable so why not just take your chances now and those that feel that people can prevent another spike with prevention measures. I think it's better messaging to say that a second wave is not inevitable if people do the right things. That at least gives people some sense of control. Fauci is now saying that a second wave is not inevitable.

The inevitability approach gets this reaction.

Elgin bar owner bans customers from wearing masks inside

Quote:
A local tavern in Elgin has banned its customers from coming in covered up.

The statement posted outside the tavern reads, “Due to our concern for our citizens, if they feel the need to wear a mask, then they should probably stay home until it’s safe.”
The owner of the bar had stage 4 cancer and says that there will be social distancing but no masks allowed. He says that if people are sick, they should stay home.

That's fair to say that sick people should stay home, but more and more studies are showing that many people are asymptomatic and spreading the virus.
  #57  
Old 05-28-2020, 07:18 AM
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Two weeks to the day after the Wisconsin Supreme Court overturned Governor Tony Evers’ “Safer at Home” order, the state has set a one-day record for new coronavirus cases, as 642 positive cases were identified in the past 24 hours, bringing the total to 16,565 — and increasing the number of currently active cases by more than 10 percent.

Additionally, the day was the deadliest so far, as 22 people succumbed to COVID19 since this time Tuesday, bringing the total death toll to 539.
This is a little misleading, since Wisconsin, like a lot of states, has a clear weekend lag in reporting, and this was a three-day weekend. Of course there is going to be an apparent one-day spike on the first day people are back to work. If you look at graphs that show the seven-day rolling average of cases and deaths, cases are indeed on an upward trend, but deaths have been more or less flat for a month after peaking in April. (Sorry about the paywalled link, but the NYT's state-by-state graphs are really good.)

Last edited by Fretful Porpentine; 05-28-2020 at 07:19 AM.
  #58  
Old 05-28-2020, 08:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Fretful Porpentine View Post
This is a little misleading, since Wisconsin, like a lot of states, has a clear weekend lag in reporting, and this was a three-day weekend. Of course there is going to be an apparent one-day spike on the first day people are back to work. If you look at graphs that show the seven-day rolling average of cases and deaths, cases are indeed on an upward trend, but deaths have been more or less flat for a month after peaking in April. (Sorry about the paywalled link, but the NYT's state-by-state graphs are really good.)
Your link doesn't work. Here's the link.

Even with a 3 day weekend, that spike is very noticeable. It's higher than any other data point to date. It's at 27 deaths on May 27 with the next highest day with 19 on April 28. Even with the lag, you'd expect to see the spikes on the seventh day. This spike is noticeably higher than the others.

As for cases, there was an a small peak in April, then cases flatlined for a bit with a larger peak in May, with another plateau and another increase recently.

With the increase in cases, one would expect to see an increase in death rates with a longer time lag. Still, that spike doesn't bode well.
  #59  
Old 05-28-2020, 09:47 AM
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Your link doesn't work. Here's the link.

Even with a 3 day weekend, that spike is very noticeable. It's higher than any other data point to date. It's at 27 deaths on May 27 with the next highest day with 19 on April 28. Even with the lag, you'd expect to see the spikes on the seventh day. This spike is noticeably higher than the others.

As for cases, there was an a small peak in April, then cases flatlined for a bit with a larger peak in May, with another plateau and another increase recently.

With the increase in cases, one would expect to see an increase in death rates with a longer time lag. Still, that spike doesn't bode well.
I am looking at the Washington Post's charts by state, and they show 22 deaths on May 27. Since the state began reopening on April 27th, the 7-day moving average number of deaths has been steady at a little less than 10 per day.

Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ge%2Fstory-ans
  #60  
Old 05-28-2020, 09:53 AM
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Originally Posted by zimaane View Post
I am looking at the Washington Post's charts by state, and they show 22 deaths on May 27. Since the state began reopening on April 27th, the 7-day moving average number of deaths has been steady at a little less than 10 per day.

Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ge%2Fstory-ans
My bad. You're right. It was 22 deaths on May 27. I misread it.
  #61  
Old 05-28-2020, 01:38 PM
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That's fair to say that sick people should stay home
Is it? People over 60, with cancer histories, with respiratory impairment, with decreased immune capacity, with diabetes should not go to an open establishment? Seems like an ADA issue.
  #62  
Old 05-28-2020, 03:37 PM
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The inevitability approach gets this reaction.

Elgin bar owner bans customers from wearing masks inside



The owner of the bar had stage 4 cancer and says that there will be social distancing but no masks allowed. He says that if people are sick, they should stay home.

That's fair to say that sick people should stay home, but more and more studies are showing that many people are asymptomatic and spreading the virus.
The bar owner seems to be unclear on the concept. Masks are not used to prevent you from getting the virus, it is to protect others.
The fact that people like this bar owner can't get this through their thick heads makes me think the second wave is inevitable.
True if everyone practiced good hygiene maybe - but that is pretty unlikely.
  #63  
Old Yesterday, 01:03 AM
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Is it? People over 60, with cancer histories, with respiratory impairment, with decreased immune capacity, with diabetes should not go to an open establishment? Seems like an ADA issue.
Maybe it's because I don't go to bars, that I don't see them as essential. I'm not too upset about high-risk people not being able to go to select bars. I would have a different reaction if it was restaurants, general stores or grocery stores. I guess there's an argument that it's a slippery slope. I wasn't seeing it like that.
  #64  
Old Yesterday, 01:20 AM
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I don't know if this is the first rollback of shutdown orders in the US. But a county in California has rolled back its shutdown orders due to an increase in cases.

California county first to roll back reopening orders
A spike in cases has forced Lassen County to shut down again.


Quote:
A California county, which was one of the first places to reopen in the state, is now the first county to backtrack on its reopening after an outbreak of COVID-19.

Lassen County, a rural Northern California county north of San Francisco and Sacramento, had followed the statewide stay-at-home orders. With a low case count, county officials submitted its own reopening plan on May 5. Phase 2 of this plan was approved for the county on May 11, which included opening more lower-risk businesses.
. . .
SFGate reports that during this time, four individuals were confirmed to have contracted coronavirus infection, forcing the county to rescind its reopening orders in a document dated May 26.
. . . .
Due to the uptick, Lassen County will “temporarily retract” its reopening of lower-risk businesses. Restricted services have shut down dine-in restaurants, salons, retail stores and places of worship.
. . .
Lassen County is currently conducting contact tracing investigations to identify how many people potentially came into contact with the virus, and working to test people suspected of coming into contact with a patient.
The spike is only 4 cases, and they're doing contact tracing on them. Will other places do the same or just let the cases rise until the hospitals can't handle them and then close back down? For some places, it's too late to follow every case. When do they decide to roll back the shutdown orders?
  #65  
Old Yesterday, 01:51 AM
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What likely effect will tourist season have on the second wave? These "Don't Wear a Mask in Here" places are even more dangerous when they're in towns that get a lot of summer tourists.
  #66  
Old Yesterday, 06:17 AM
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This site (which uses a complicated algorithm that I'll admit I'm not qualified to evaluate) purports to calculate virus transmissability (Rt) by state, with 1 being the break point between increased and decreased spread. A low point, with only four states showing values above 1, was reached a few weeks ago. As of this morning, the number of states with Rt > 1 is up to 11, suggesting that we may indeed be heading toward a second wave, albeit slowly.

Last edited by El_Kabong; Yesterday at 06:20 AM.
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