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  #51  
Old 01-17-2018, 01:25 PM
Chronos Chronos is offline
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I guess what I'm getting at is that, at sufficiently-high levels, the assumptions behind the Elo rating system probably break down. One can envision two extremely powerful players who almost always draw against each other, but such that A can beat B one game out of 100, while B can't beat A even one time in a billion. If B only makes a game-losing error 1% of the time, but A only makes a game-losing error less than one game in a billion, then in some sense A is ten million times better... but their ratings will be very close.
  #52  
Old 01-19-2018, 11:14 AM
BigAppleBucky BigAppleBucky is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by borschevsky View Post
That number for AlphaZero's rating doesn't make sense. Since it scored 64% against Stockfish, its rating should be 100 points higher than Stockfish's.

I've seen estimates for the maximum possible rating at about 3600. If you imagine a perfect chess-playing entity, would Magnus Carlsen draw one out of every 50 games against it, and lose the other 49? If so, its rating would be about 3600.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eN7BMWl_mpw&t=1s

In these games the engines were given the first few moves of human concieved openings. Not sure what the engines would do without those openings. Maybe white has a forced win or maybe with best play the games are always draws.

Quote:
1200 games of 12 openings, 100 games per opening were played by AlphaZero & Stockfish 8 that are in the paper released by the developers. 10 games from the paper are in current videos. I haven't seen any one mention anything about the other games???? So I did this video & came up with a rating from the data, & also expressed some obvious implications of it.

Both programs played back & white 50 games in each opening. The results for Alpha Zero were:

As white; 242 wins, 353 draws, 5 losses.
As black; 48 wins, 533 draws, 19 losses.
For a total of 290 wins, 886 draws, 24 losses.

23% wins, 73.83% draws, 2% losses. So it did lose to Stockfish, why nobody is mentioning it I don't know but I'm assuming investment reasons & hype.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1Dva2KCmBw&t=616s

AlphaZero was run on a super computer platform, apparently Stockfish was not. That might have been extremely important.
  #53  
Old 01-19-2018, 11:40 AM
borschevsky borschevsky is offline
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Originally Posted by BigAppleBucky View Post
He writes the following in the video description:

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For the rating compared to Stockfish which is around 3400, AlphaZero won 23% of the games & lost 2%, for a 21% strength over Stockfish, which is 700 points & a total rating of 4100+.
He's apparently taking that 21% and saying that 3400 + (3400 * 0.21) = 4100+. That is not remotely close to how the ratings work. Winning 23%, losing 2%, and drawing 75% against a 3400 gives you a rating of 3474.
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