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  #51  
Old 11-06-2019, 05:54 PM
RTFirefly is offline
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Originally Posted by BeepKillBeep View Post
And it begins. All they need to do is follow the process. Do the recanvass, make up some lies about irregularities, and then contest the election to the KY House and Senate. Democracy will be usurped and Republicans will cheer.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ken...equest-beshear
https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...ys/4174103002/
I've already called my Congressman (Hoyer), saying the House should be proactive on this, and remind the KY legislature that, per the Constitution, "The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government," so the Federal government has the authority to intervene if Kentucky refuses to abide by the results of its election.

The guy answering the phone seemed to be pretty sure that the legislature can't do anything like that, noting that Alison Grimes, the Kentucky Secretary of State, has already declared Beshear to be the winner. I pointed out that the legislature would act after the Secretary of State's role in the election was over, and he said something about the FEC. I pointed out that the FEC is gutted right now - doesn't have a quorum to act (which is how the GOP likes it). He brushed that off, but said he'd pass my concerns on to the Congressman.

There isn't much the House could do besides hold hearings, but it can raise the visibility of this issue. It's a bit harder for the national media to ignore the story if the action in this story isn't just happening in Frankfort, but is happening on Capitol Hill as well. And the more attention being paid to this story, the less likely the KY legislature will be bold enough to overturn the election. If the national reporters start circling, they'll be more likely to feel that they're out of their league in trying to do this.
  #52  
Old 11-06-2019, 08:42 PM
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The people prior to this election who worried that impeachment would divide the Dems and inspire the Reps were 0-2 on that point.

It may be argued... though impossible to prove... that in a non-impeachment world yesterday may have been better for the R's.

Leadership. It's a thing, people.
  #53  
Old 11-06-2019, 10:20 PM
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Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
Because:Except that turnout in Virginia looks to have been in the mid-40s, percentagewise. (This is by my own calculations*, comparing with recent years; no firm reporting yet.) It was 47.6% in 2017 (when the gubernatorial race was on the ballot) and 29.1% in 2015 (when, like this year, it was just the state legislature that was on the ballot). (Cite.)

That's your information, right there.


*ETA: I'm literally having to add up individual race totals on a hand calculator. Those counts are from here, but the adding-up part is mine. I'm getting ~1.25 million Dem votes alone.
It's really the same sort of information that midterm elections and special elections give.

Like you just documented, first that even in an off year no governor's race election turnout was big, and with Ds coming out to vote.

And then further analysis of where the votes will either support or go against various theories that inform moving forward. And I am very much looking forward to those analyses.

The initial take on this election (see 538's first stab for example) is that suburban performance shifting very D-ward is the story line. And yes those are the seats that shifted. But I'd love to know how much the margins were in rural districts compared to 2015 or even 2016 and 2018. Yes the D more often lost there but was it by less? A lot less? Analysis of midterm results showed that there was a bigger shift in rural districts than in suburbs, even if majorities in those districts voted R. Like in other elections how the vote goes relative to the partisan lean (or past performance) tells us more about the national mood of the demographics.
  #54  
Old 11-06-2019, 11:03 PM
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Q: Election Day 2019. Will today's results show how things are trending for next year?

A: We can project and predict all we want but IMHO we're still too far out to do more than fantasize. Much unpleasant shit can materialize before then. Yes, IF nothing screws up the works THEN we can say, "Look at this trend!" without total discombobulation. But am I willing to place serious bets on 2020 outcomes? Not hardly.
  #55  
Old 11-09-2019, 08:47 PM
RTFirefly is offline
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Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
It's really the same sort of information that midterm elections and special elections give.

Like you just documented, first that even in an off year no governor's race election turnout was big, and with Ds coming out to vote.

And then further analysis of where the votes will either support or go against various theories that inform moving forward. And I am very much looking forward to those analyses.

The initial take on this election (see 538's first stab for example) is that suburban performance shifting very D-ward is the story line. And yes those are the seats that shifted. But I'd love to know how much the margins were in rural districts compared to 2015 or even 2016 and 2018. Yes the D more often lost there but was it by less? A lot less? Analysis of midterm results showed that there was a bigger shift in rural districts than in suburbs, even if majorities in those districts voted R. Like in other elections how the vote goes relative to the partisan lean (or past performance) tells us more about the national mood of the demographics.
It would take a mammoth shift in rural districts to make up for the shift in the suburbs: rural America just doesn't have the population density, unless you're talking about Wyoming or North Dakota. if we've got the cities and the suburbs, there just isn't that much left over.

Here's the totals I came up with from the numbers on the Virginia elections website - for whatever reason, I couldn't get them to load into Excel at work, but I could at home, which made the arithmetic a lot easier. In the 40 Virginia Senate races, the Dems got 1.211 million votes, the GOP got 892,000 votes, and there were another 158,000 votes for third parties, independent candidates, and write-ins. (That a 57.6% share of the two-party vote turned into a mere 21-19 edge in the state Senate suggests that that body might be just a wee bit gerrymandered. But the Dems have full control through the end of 2021, so they get to draw the lines for the 2020s. But I digress.)

Democrats don't outnumber Republicans by anywhere near that much in Virginia. But they showed up in big enough numbers to make it seem that way.

As Dr. Rachel Bitecofer summed things up in the Rolling Stone's piece on the 2019 elections,
Quote:
“There’s nothing localized about what happened in Virginia last night,” Rachel Bitecofer says. “Turnout went way, way up. It didn’t go up like that because of Medicaid expansion or gun control. It went up because people are unsettled about Donald Trump. People are freaked out.”
  #56  
Old 11-11-2019, 09:10 AM
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I haven't seen the details behind the math yet but Dave Wasserman tweeted a couple of days ago that, had Virginia Repubs not gerrymandered so aggressively back in 2010, they would have held on to the state legislature this year. I'm hoping the same over aggression helps Dems in North Carolina next year.

We desperately need multi-member super districts as proposed in the Fair Representation Act to eliminate gerrymandering once and for all. Doing so will make us a better country.
  #57  
Old 11-14-2019, 03:53 PM
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Bevin conceded, closing out the last big question re: the 2019 races.
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