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Old 11-06-2019, 01:52 AM
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Can we talk about Democratic running mates for a minute?


I know the popular thing to say is that the #2 isn't important. But I argue otherwise. The running mate fleshes out the ticket, it pulls people in. Or further pushes them away.

In 2016, Pence gave evangelicals and possibly some suburban voters comfort to go full-throated for Trump. And Biden eased the minds of blue collar Industrial Midwesterners of the Caucasian persuasion in 2008. And Cheney gave W some gravitas where he needed it, especially in the area of foreign relations/defense. In '92, Gore may have reinforced Clinton's strengths: Young, new, southern.

On the flip side, Palin didn't do McCain any favors, and neither did Lieberman, Quayle or Kaine help their tickets much.

So who's waiting in the wings for the Dems. There's a shitton of pearl clutching at present about the current crop of Dem front-runners being too old, too left, too young, too gay, too white, too whatever; but I think any one of them, with a good, strategic choice of running mate is wholly capable of winning in 2020.

So I offer my thoughts on the four current leaders:

Biden. He needs to rope in Latinos & progressives, needs to have someone young and with federal and/or high-level executive experience. Female would be ideal. My picks:
1. Sally Yates. As the person who got fired for refusing to enforce Trump's Muslim ban EO in early 2017, she has a certain appeal to those in the "resistance." She's from Georgia, so she brings some southern diversity to the ticket. She's a woman, younger and has experience in the DOJ.
2. Hilda Solis. She's currently serving on the LA County Board of Supervisors. Previously was Obama's Sec of Labor, and before that a member of Congress. Daughter of immigrants, daughter of a Teamster organizer. She's be great to bring in Latino voters, without scaring away the white blue-collar lunch-bucket voters in the Midwest; she can hang in the union halls. Plus she has federal executive branch experience.
3. Tammy Duckworth. Not a progressive by any means, but is a woman of color from the Midwest (currently sitting in Obama's old Senate seat). A disabled war vet with military roots stretching back to the American Revolution. She's a suburban mom with a relatively-new baby at home who is the one (I believe) to coin the term "Cadet Bone Spurs" in regard to Trump. She's a badass, imo. She would reinforce Biden's strengths.

Warren. IMO, she needs a male, a moderate, ideally an African-American (or someone who can really, really turn out the AA community), and someone from the Industrial Midwest and/or a swing state.
1. Rep. Anthony G. Brown. Congressman from Maryland. Retired military, comes across a gruff but likable. African-American.
2. Anthony Foxx. Former mayor of Charlotte, NC, and served as Obama's Secretary of Transportation, which would be a nice olive leaf to the Obama Universe; she needs it. Gen-X African-American, currently works for Uber. Has executive experience (mayor), and from what I've read, he was a pretty popular/successful mayor.
3. Adm. Bill McRaven. Brings military gravitas and moderation to the ticket. He's a good speaker and he freaking led the mission that killed Bin Laden. He's from Texas, so he brings geographical diversity to the ticket.

Buttigieg. Desperately needs someone to appeal to African-American voters. Also needs someone with DC experience.
1. Sen. Cory Booker. Brings DC experience to the ticket as well as African-American voters.
2. Rep. Brenda Lawrence. I admit, she's a dark horse unknown. But she is a retired USPS worker from southeast Michigan. Her husband is retired UAW. She got her start in politics on the school board, moved up to mayor, and is now a member of Congress. She represents one of the most economically, racially, religiously, and politically diverse areas in the state of Michigan. She's a progressive African-American woman who has not been a career politician.
3. ??? Maybe the aforementioned Anthony Foxx? Deval Patrick?

Sanders. Desperately needs a moderate, person of color, young, ideally from the Midwest.
1. Tammy Duckworth. I have no other suggestions for Bernie. She's the strawberry jam to his peanut butter.

Anyway, gimme your thoughts. This race is gonna need to be a legit ticket that helps the Dem nominee win a coalition of voters (Industrial Midwest, union, black, latino, young, progressive, moderate, military, etc). Feel free to critique my pics, offer alternatives, or expand beyond the top four front-runners with your ideal running mates.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 11-06-2019 at 01:56 AM.
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Old 11-06-2019, 06:14 AM
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Thanks for your research and helpful observations. I have nothing to add, but look forward to this thread bubbling under the surface of our “bigger” threads, popping up with the occasional important post over the next several months.
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Old 11-06-2019, 09:03 AM
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Provided they don't hate each other, I would want the running mate to be the runner up in the convention. Stands to reason that that person would have the 2nd largest backing. We need numbers!
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:59 AM
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Inslee dropped out of the race too soon. Now is the time for his more central but still activist agenda. He could speak up to and counsel either Warren or Sanders or Kloubuchar.
Tammy Duckworth is an excellent pick for her background and for her politics .
I would like to see someone with leadership in military experience. I'm afraid we are going to need it.
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Old 11-06-2019, 12:19 PM
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It's not just the popular thing. I know of no evidence that concludes that the VP makes any significant difference.

There are studies that say that the VP may provide a point or two extra in a home state, but that usually is where the state is small enough that name recognition alone can affect voting.

As long as the Dems don't select Eric Trump, the difference will be negligible, even in a close election.
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:46 PM
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It's not just the popular thing. I know of no evidence that concludes that the VP makes any significant difference.
Sarah Palin didnít scare the living shit out of sentient Americans? She scared the living shit out of ME.
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Old 11-06-2019, 02:00 PM
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I really like Duckworth as my Senator, but I'm not sure she have any real impact in the Midwest. Illinois really does stand alone because of Chicago.
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Old 11-06-2019, 05:26 PM
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Since Michelle Obama probably will say no, I'd reallly like to see another African-American woman as #2. Lori Lightfoot or Stacey Abrams?
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Old 11-06-2019, 05:44 PM
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Tammy Duckworth is raising a child right now and I don’t think, outside of a few speeches, she wants a larger role. Durbin won’t be around forever and she’s a Senator from Illinois as long as she wants it.
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Old 11-06-2019, 05:45 PM
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Since Michelle Obama probably will say no, I'd reallly like to see another African-American woman as #2. Lori Lightfoot or Stacey Abrams?
Lori Lightfoot????? Sheís been mayor less than a year and just had to take on the Chicago Teachers Union.
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Old 11-06-2019, 07:55 PM
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I think Mayor Pete would benefit from a running mate who both appeals to African Americans as well as someone who is older / more experienced. Stacey Abrams would be a good pick for him.
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Old 11-06-2019, 08:51 PM
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I think Palin did make a difference; the pick called McCain's judgment into question. Otherwise the VP pick is meh. Except with Biden. Like with FDR in 44, you have to think seriously about the possibility that the VP will become POTUS.
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Old 11-06-2019, 09:09 PM
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Sarah Palin didnít scare the living shit out of sentient Americans? She scared the living shit out of ME.
She wasn't picked for sentient Americans. She was picked for Republicans.
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Old 11-06-2019, 09:30 PM
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From a marketing perspective, need to appeal to the largest voting blocks that are up for grabs. Whatshisface, Kaine, proved that having a Spanish speaking white guy as your VP didn't help the ticket. Probably one of those coulda shoulda woulda unenforced errors that a better pick might have put Hillary in the White House.

If the nominee is a male, then need a female to balance out the ticket.

If the nominee is a person of color, then need either a different color or someone that can diffuse the threat raised by a person of color (Obama Biden springs to mind)

If the nominee is a old white guy, then need a woman and/or person of color to fulfill the plan B when the Pres is incapacitated. (May be the easiest way to break the glass ceiling)

If the nominee is gay, then need someone straight to balance it out. (Kinda the polar opposite of Trump picking Pence to pull in the fundie support)
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Old 11-06-2019, 09:38 PM
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I think Mayor Pete would benefit from a running mate who both appeals to African Americans as well as someone who is older / more experienced. Stacey Abrams would be a good pick for him.
While I agree with your premise, I personally donít see the appeal of Abrams (but thatís just me). How about Julian Castro or Cory Booker?

Whatís also interesting with regard to Buttigieg is whether he should double down in the outside Washington status or seek an insider - does he seek out a governor, perhaps, or does he seek a senator or other person working in DC?
...
Personally, for any candidate, Iíd love to see Montana Senator John Tester as a running mate. Heís the kind of plain spoken salt of the earth type (dude only has 3 fingers on one hand because of a farming accident!) who would give pause to a lot of disillusioned Trump voters.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Tester
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:30 PM
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I'd add Tammy Baldwin for Biden. Or Sanders.
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Old 11-07-2019, 10:38 AM
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I think that it was Nixon who said that the best you can hope for with a VP nominee is that they don't hurt you.
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Old 11-07-2019, 11:46 AM
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From a marketing perspective, need to appeal to the largest voting blocks that are up for grabs. Whatshisface, Kaine, proved that having a Spanish speaking white guy as your VP didn't help the ticket. Probably one of those coulda shoulda woulda unenforced errors that a better pick might have put Hillary in the White House.

If the nominee is a male, then need a female to balance out the ticket.

If the nominee is a person of color, then need either a different color or someone that can diffuse the threat raised by a person of color (Obama Biden springs to mind)

If the nominee is a old white guy, then need a woman and/or person of color to fulfill the plan B when the Pres is incapacitated. (May be the easiest way to break the glass ceiling)

If the nominee is gay, then need someone straight to balance it out. (Kinda the polar opposite of Trump picking Pence to pull in the fundie support)
I disagree. I think that pandering to the Democratic base through some sort of virtue-signaling via the VP pick isn't going to accomplish much of anything. Once you do that, you're putting the people who aren't affiliated with either party in the position of having to pick between two extremes.

Better to paint one side (the GOP) as dangerously reactionary and extreme, while touting your own moderation and even-handedness.
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Old 11-07-2019, 12:10 PM
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So there are no women or people of color who might actuallly be qualified for the position? Any such pick could only come as the result of virtue-signaling pandering? All even-handed moderates know that only white men are suited for public office? Got it. Thanks for sharing.
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Old 11-07-2019, 12:14 PM
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My hurried rank: (assuming the top 5 won't VP for another top 5):

1. Abrams
2. Castro
3. Booker
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Old 11-07-2019, 12:26 PM
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I disagree. I think that pandering to the Democratic base through some sort of virtue-signaling via the VP pick isn't going to accomplish much of anything. Once you do that, you're putting the people who aren't affiliated with either party in the position of having to pick between two extremes.

Better to paint one side (the GOP) as dangerously reactionary and extreme, while touting your own moderation and even-handedness.
Like it or not, elections are marketing campaigns, and the running mate is a key tactic. Naming one who complements the POTUS candidate (male for female, black for white, midwestern for eastern, etc.) isn't pandering to the base -- they're going to vote Dem anyway. If anything, it's pandering to the undecided and the unmotivated to show them, hey, you're represented on this ticket even if the POTUS candidate isn't exactly your preference.

I'm not sure how this tactic interferes with "paint[ing] one side (the GOP) as dangerously reactionary and extreme." I'd fully expect the Dem candidates to do that, anyway.
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Old 11-07-2019, 12:28 PM
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I think that it was Nixon who said that the best you can hope for with a VP nominee is that they don't hurt you.
And that was true for Nixon in 1968/1972 since everyone knew Nixon from being Ikeís VP and the 1960 race against JFK. Plus, he was the return to normality after the craziness of Goldwater.

I think Gore helped Bill Clinton, Mondale helped Carter, and Biden helped Obama. Lieberman and Edwards were mistakes. The less said about Ferraro, the better. Bentsen and Kaine were pretty neutral.

Dole was probably a a drawback for Ford with ĎDemocrat warsí Bush definitely helped Reagan similar to how Pence helped Trump, ĎThis guy isnít completely crazy!í The 88 Bush campaign exiled Quayle to rural Idaho and other such places and even the Jack Kennedy quote didnít hurt in 88. Kemp hurt Dole by showing how old Dole really was. Cheney was an absolute bizarre pick but even after people knew how awful he was in 2004, it still wasnít enough to prevent Bush squeaking out a win. Palin, enough said. Ryan was absolutely neutral for Romney, they both looked like business executives announcing layoffs and then record executive bonuses the next day.
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Old 11-07-2019, 12:35 PM
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I think Mayor Pete would benefit from a running mate who both appeals to African Americans as well as someone who is older / more experienced. Stacey Abrams would be a good pick for him.
I love Stacey Abrams, but she has the same weakness in relative lack of experience. She would be a great pick for Biden.
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Old 11-07-2019, 02:25 PM
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Cyically, I'm not sure that how much of a need there is to racially balance the ticket in the general election is as important as you are making it out to be. People of color are certainly an important voting block in the Democratic primary, but I think with or without an African American on the ticket, blacks are going to be well motivated to vote against Trump. The main thing is for the candidate to make it clear that African American concerns are being given serious consideration, as a clear contrast with the present administration. Even more cynically, I would point on that blacks only represent about 10% of the electorate, so even a 10% drop in participation would only equates to a 1% drop overall vote total.

I think the main balancing point should be ideological. Moderate candidates will need someone to motivate voters who might whine that both parties are in the thrall of corporate greed and so they might as well just stay home. Leftist candidates need someone to reassure people who may not be happy with Trump, but might also fear a "Socialist" candidate, who is going to radically change everything.
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Old 11-07-2019, 02:34 PM
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Even more cynically, I would point on that blacks only represent about 10% of the electorate, so even a 10% drop in participation would only equates to a 1% drop overall vote total.
1% in the right states can make all the difference.
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Old 11-07-2019, 03:39 PM
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Several of the Dem candidates are old enough that the selection of a running mate needs to be a bit more serious decision than just balancing the ticket. Especially the ones that have already had a heart attack, or are showing a tendency to ramble.

Tammy Duckworth would be good for practically any of them. If she wants the job - she might not, although I expect that VP would be marginally less demanding than Senator. Assuming whoever is at the top of the ticket wins, which is far from certain.

Maybe it's not in the spirit of the OP, but Buttigieg would be a good VP pick for pretty much anyone. He is the one of the few with anything resembling charisma in the Dem field.

Apart from him, I wouldn't pick from any of the also-rans at all. Find a southern governor. Nobody from CA or NY, not needed - those states will go Dem no matter what.

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Old 11-07-2019, 03:47 PM
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I know the popular thing to say is that the #2 isn't important. But I argue otherwise. The running mate fleshes out the ticket, it pulls people in. Or further pushes them away.
...

Biden. He needs to rope in Latinos & progressives, needs to have someone young and with federal and/or high-level executive experience. Female would be ideal. My picks:
1. Sally Yates. As the person who got fired for refusing to enforce Trump's Muslim ban EO in early 2017, she has a certain appeal to those in the "resistance." She's from Georgia, so she brings some southern diversity to the ticket. She's a woman, younger and has experience in the DOJ.
2. Hilda Solis. She's currently serving on the LA County Board of Supervisors. Previously was Obama's Sec of Labor, and before that a member of Congress. Daughter of immigrants, daughter of a Teamster organizer. She's be great to bring in Latino voters, without scaring away the white blue-collar lunch-bucket voters in the Midwest; she can hang in the union halls. Plus she has federal executive branch experience.
3. Tammy Duckworth. Not a progressive by any means, but is a woman of color from the Midwest (currently sitting in Obama's old Senate seat). A disabled war vet with military roots stretching back to the American Revolution. She's a suburban mom with a relatively-new baby at home who is the one (I believe) to coin the term "Cadet Bone Spurs" in regard to Trump. She's a badass, imo. She would reinforce Biden's strengths.

Warren. IMO, she needs a male, a moderate, ideally an African-American (or someone who can really, really turn out the AA community), and someone from the Industrial Midwest and/or a swing state.
1. Rep. Anthony G. Brown. Congressman from Maryland. Retired military, comes across a gruff but likable. African-American.
2. Anthony Foxx. Former mayor of Charlotte, NC, and served as Obama's Secretary of Transportation, which would be a nice olive leaf to the Obama Universe; she needs it. Gen-X African-American, currently works for Uber. Has executive experience (mayor), and from what I've read, he was a pretty popular/successful mayor.
3. Adm. Bill McRaven. Brings military gravitas and moderation to the ticket. He's a good speaker and he freaking led the mission that killed Bin Laden. He's from Texas, so he brings geographical diversity to the ticket.
....
Yes, good ones. For Biden we can add Harris and Michelle Obama. (She might accept the #2 spot in a draft) But yes, someone young.

I really like McRaven for Warren.
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Old 11-07-2019, 03:47 PM
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If Biden wins the Democratic presidential nomination, I expect him to pick Amy Klobuchar as his running mate, provided Minnesota will safely elect another Democrat to replace her.

He will see her as the best pick to bring the Midwest to the general election party. Biden takes care of the South, and the Coasts will take care of themselves.

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Old 11-07-2019, 04:24 PM
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Rating the top candidates now, I'd go:
1) Warren
2) Biden
3) Buttigieg

Combine any two of these three and there's your Dem P/VP ticket. VPs pulled out of thin air don't always get a lot of ground. Hillary had a good guy, whathisname... Mumbly Joe? Anyway, he was killing Pence in VP debates and it didn't help.
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Old 11-07-2019, 06:47 PM
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Rating the top candidates now, I'd go:
1) Warren
2) Biden
3) Buttigieg

Combine any two of these three and there's your Dem P/VP ticket. VPs pulled out of thin air don't always get a lot of ground. Hillary had a good guy, whathisname... Mumbly Joe? Anyway, he was killing Pence in VP debates and it didn't help.
Mayor Pete is a great guy. But openly gay wont play in peoria in 2020, sadly(I think that by 2028 it wont be that much of a issue). Maybe as veep however. Joe & Pete?
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Old 11-09-2019, 10:40 AM
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Cyically, I'm not sure that how much of a need there is to racially balance the ticket in the general election is as important as you are making it out to be. People of color are certainly an important voting block in the Democratic primary, but I think with or without an African American on the ticket, blacks are going to be well motivated to vote against Trump.
Nonetheless, there was a real drop in AA turnout between 2012 and 2016 - I think it went from ~65% to ~59%. If it had stayed at 65%, we wouldn't be having this discussion - they'd have tipped PA, MI, and WI.

Could an African-American on the ticket make a difference in getting some AA's to the polls who might normally be less than likely to vote? I'd expect so.
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Old 11-09-2019, 12:38 PM
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I did cite Nixon earlier in the thread, but I'm not even sure that I agree totally with that. Maybe the euchre strategy where you count on your partner to take one trick. A good vp nominee shouldn't hurt you anywhere but can be counted on to pull in or lock down one (usually his own) state.
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Old 11-09-2019, 12:44 PM
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Nonetheless, there was a real drop in AA turnout between 2012 and 2016 - I think it went from ~65% to ~59%. If it had stayed at 65%, we wouldn't be having this discussion - they'd have tipped PA, MI, and WI.

Could an African-American on the ticket make a difference in getting some AA's to the polls who might normally be less than likely to vote? I'd expect so.
Although this time around, the Dems will have Barack and Michelle Obama available full time for campaigning. Also, Biden if heís not on the ticket and Bill Clinton can be quite useful for AA turnout as well.
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Old 11-09-2019, 12:52 PM
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Castro or Klobuchar.
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Old 11-09-2019, 02:07 PM
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Although this time around, the Dems will have Barack and Michelle Obama available full time for campaigning.
Did they not campaign for Hillary?
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and Bill Clinton can be quite useful for AA turnout as well.
Didn't he campaign for Hillary?
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Also, Biden if heís not on the ticket
I don't see a reason to link Biden's AA support in the primary with his ability (or lack of it) to inspire AA turnout in the general. They're two very different things.
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Old 11-09-2019, 02:51 PM
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Did they not campaign for Hillary?Didn't he campaign for Hillary?I don't see a reason to link Biden's AA support in the primary with his ability (or lack of it) to inspire AA turnout in the general. They're two very different things.
Yes, the Obamas campaigned for Hillary. But, Barack was also busy being president and was probably exhausted after 8 years on the job.
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Old 11-09-2019, 09:04 PM
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Sorry to disenhearten anyone but 1) Veep doesn't really carry votes, although if bad enough, they might serve as insurance against presidential assassination, and 2) we have no idea yet if a 2020 election will actually occur, and who might survive to run in it. What we HOPE and what we KNOW differ. We don't know nothing yet IMHO.
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Old 11-10-2019, 02:46 AM
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Sorry to disenhearten anyone but 1) Veep doesn't really carry votes, although if bad enough, they might serve as insurance against presidential assassination, and 2) we have no idea yet if a 2020 election will actually occur, and who might survive to run in it. What we HOPE and what we KNOW differ. We don't know nothing yet IMHO.
1. Actually they do, but not as much as they used to,

2. what are you babbling about? Yes, we know there will be a presidential election in 2020.
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Old 11-10-2019, 03:59 PM
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2. what are you babbling about? Yes, we know there will be a presidential election in 2020.
We sincerely HOPE for a 2020 national election but we don't KNOW what could happen by then. Each step here probes uncharted territory. I won't threadjack to list possible disruptions. But as Brecht said, "The man who laughs has not yet been told the terrible news."

We also can't know which Dems can politically and physically survive till the convention. Top-listers right now are Biden, Warren, Sanders - old farts. Bloomberg is another old fart who just might spend enough to matter. But this suggest that any would feel a need for a much younger Veep candidate. Which of the second tier could help them?
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Old 11-10-2019, 04:04 PM
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We sincerely HOPE for a 2020 national election but we don't KNOW what could happen by then. Each step here probes uncharted territory. I won't threadjack to list possible disruptions. But as Brecht said, "The man who laughs has not yet been told the terrible news."...
Yeah, the sun might not rise tomorrow as a massive asteroid has destroyed the earth and all human life.

However, barring weird crap like that, there will be a election in 2020.
  #41  
Old 11-10-2019, 04:11 PM
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Originally Posted by RioRico View Post
Sorry to disenhearten anyone but 1) Veep doesn't really carry votes
We know that the impact of a white male veep candidate on an election is negligible, I'll agree with that much.

I would say we won't know what the effect on turnout is of having a member of a minority as one's veep candidate until it's been tried.
Quote:
2) we have no idea yet if a 2020 election will actually occur
  #42  
Old 11-10-2019, 04:36 PM
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Can we talk about Democratic running mates for a minute?


I think that a largely stationary mating is more comfortable and enjoyable and that, if you really must move to a different location while mating, it is better that you walk.

I don't know who started this craze, but leave it to a Democrat....
  #43  
Old 11-10-2019, 06:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
Warren
3. Adm. Bill McRaven. Brings military gravitas and moderation to the ticket. He's a good speaker and he freaking led the mission that killed Bin Laden. He's from Texas, so he brings geographical diversity to the ticket.
I get the feeling McRaven is aiming to be Secretary of Defense in the next Democratic administration. I really doubt that Warren would pick an old white dude for the VP slot.

Quote:
Sanders. Desperately needs a moderate, person of color, young, ideally from the Midwest.
Sanders does not do moderate. I don't see any reasonable scenario in which he gets the nomination, but if he does then I'd expect he'll pick someone who shares all of left-wing positions.
  #44  
Old 11-24-2019, 04:59 PM
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...s-running-mate
Biden did not provide any specific names, but he said several people are qualified, including "the former assistant attorney general who got fired," referring to former Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates; "the woman who should have been the governor of Georgia," referring to Stacey Abrams; and "the two senators from the state of New Hampshire," referring to Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and Maggie Hassan (D).


Yates was fired by President Trump in 2017 after refusing to to defend his administration's travel ban. She was serving as the acting attorney general at the time.


And lets face it- it is rare anyone picks someone who was campaigning against them.
  #45  
Old 11-24-2019, 06:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...s-running-mate
Biden did not provide any specific names, but he said several people are qualified, including "the former assistant attorney general who got fired," referring to former Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates; "the woman who should have been the governor of Georgia," referring to Stacey Abrams; and "the two senators from the state of New Hampshire," referring to Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and Maggie Hassan (D).


Yates was fired by President Trump in 2017 after refusing to to defend his administration's travel ban. She was serving as the acting attorney general at the time.


And lets face it- it is rare anyone picks someone who was campaigning against them.
Doesn't seem rare by my memory -- Kerry picked Edwards, who was running against him, and Obama picked Biden, who was (briefly) running against him.
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