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  #51  
Old 12-03-2019, 09:32 PM
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That and the fact that she only had a 5% approval rating among black voters. Compare that to Biden, who is polling at 40+% in the same demographic.
Nitpick: I think you mean support, not approval rating.
  #52  
Old 12-03-2019, 11:26 PM
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Nitpick: I think you mean support, not approval rating.
Probably, although I'm not sure I'm seeing the difference.
  #53  
Old 12-04-2019, 07:45 AM
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Probably, although I'm not sure I'm seeing the difference.
An example: according to last week's YouGov poll, Julian Castro is viewed favorably by 51% of Democrats, and unfavorably by 18%. That's 51% approval, and +33% net approval.

But his support (the % of Dems who say they'd vote for him for the nomination) is down around 1%.
  #54  
Old 12-04-2019, 09:08 AM
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Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
An example: according to last week's YouGov poll, Julian Castro is viewed favorably by 51% of Democrats, and unfavorably by 18%. That's 51% approval, and +33% net approval.

But his support (the % of Dems who say they'd vote for him for the nomination) is down around 1%.
Ah, I see what you're saying. Thanks.
  #55  
Old 12-04-2019, 04:02 PM
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That and the fact that she only had a 5% approval rating among black voters. Compare that to Biden, who is polling at 40+% in the same demographic.
This ^

If you backed Harris early on, one major disappointment is that she never was that popular with African American voters, and it's not like Booker beat her to the punch, as he hasn't gotten the charge from voters of color he expected either. Biden is winning with Black voters.
  #56  
Old 12-04-2019, 05:04 PM
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538 had a nice half-hour “emergency” (post-Harris) podcast today. Among other things, they mentioned how all those white men kn the debate stage might not be a good “look” for the party (though it might reflect voters’ real concerns with perceived electability), and so they might, say, let Cory Booker participate even if he didn’t make the cut by the preset rules.
  #57  
Old 12-04-2019, 06:56 PM
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I am hoping the whole identity politics thing goes bye-bye soon and they focus on substantive issues.

Last edited by snowthx; 12-04-2019 at 06:58 PM.
  #58  
Old 12-04-2019, 07:48 PM
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Everyone's obsessed with rebuilding the Obama coalition, but what people forget is that Obama was careful not to fall into an identity politics trap. He didn't want to be the person of color candidate; at the same time, he also embraced being black and progressive. Obama was successful because while everyone knew he was black, he didn't play it up and he didn't make whites feel particularly threatened.
  #59  
Old 12-04-2019, 08:11 PM
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Originally Posted by asahi View Post
Everyone's obsessed with rebuilding the Obama coalition, but what people forget is that Obama was careful not to fall into an identity politics trap. He didn't want to be the person of color candidate; at the same time, he also embraced being black and progressive. Obama was successful because while everyone knew he was black, he didn't play it up and he didn't make whites feel particularly threatened.
Yes, they talk about that in the podcast (more at length in the previous one).

Last edited by JKellyMap; 12-04-2019 at 08:11 PM.
  #60  
Old 12-04-2019, 09:00 PM
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Originally Posted by JKellyMap View Post
538 had a nice half-hour “emergency” (post-Harris) podcast today. Among other things, they mentioned how all those white men kn the debate stage might not be a good “look” for the party (though it might reflect voters’ real concerns with perceived electability), and so they might, say, let Cory Booker participate even if he didn’t make the cut by the preset rules.
That would be bad for other reasons. Putting your thumb on the scale like that is bad juju. I think Cory will probably get there under his own steam. As will Gabbard and Yang.

We can't have affirmative action elections.
  #61  
Old 12-04-2019, 09:36 PM
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That would be bad for other reasons. Putting your thumb on the scale like that is bad juju. I think Cory will probably get there under his own steam. As will Gabbard and Yang.

We can't have affirmative action elections.
I agree. I’m pulling for Booker in any case.
  #62  
Old 12-04-2019, 10:04 PM
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And then we’d be back where we started with too many candidates on the debate stage. It’s so close to Christmas that I don’t think this debate will move the needle much, but we’ve got to get the field narrowed, even if it is all white.
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  #63  
Old 12-05-2019, 04:25 AM
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Gabbard has a white mother and her father is half European and half Samoan. I guess she is 3/4 white. I also don't recall anyone calling her a person of color.
Obama also had a white mother. Tulsi and Obama both grew up in the same place - Hawaii, where cultural diversity is more the norm. In terns of racial background, the only difference between the first black President and Tulsi, who you don't recall anyone calling a person of color is 1/4 ancestry or less.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi View Post
That would be bad for other reasons. Putting your thumb on the scale like that is bad juju. I think Cory will probably get there under his own steam. As will Gabbard and Yang.

We can't have affirmative action elections.
Is this for the December debates? Yang and Tulsi have 3 out of 4 qualifying polls each. They each have only one more poll to qualify. Booker has zero qualifying polls out of 4. He would need 4 qualifying polls in the next week to qualify. That would be an amazing feat, possible but there would need to be 4 polls that upticked for him in a short time. December debate qualifying spreadsheet put out by Politico writers.
  #64  
Old 12-05-2019, 04:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi View Post
That would be bad for other reasons. Putting your thumb on the scale like that is bad juju. I think Cory will probably get there under his own steam. As will Gabbard and Yang.

We can't have affirmative action elections.
All of this BS is why it was a mistake for the parties to get involved in debates at all. Until very recently, debates were arranged by negotiation between the campaigns and organizations that wanted to host them, and any disputes about participation could thus be offloaded onto those entities rather than tainting the entire race. I have no idea why the DNC continued its involvement after getting nothing but strife for arranging things in 2016.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 12-05-2019 at 04:39 AM.
  #65  
Old 12-05-2019, 09:28 AM
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Part of Obama's skill as a politician was that he was everything to everyone. To nerds, he was the nerd candidate. To jocks, he was the jock candidate. He even managed to brand himself as more Irish than the guy whose name started with "Mc".

If we had anyone else who had that skill, we wouldn't be having this discussion right now, because we'd all already know who the Democratic nominee was.
  #66  
Old 12-05-2019, 10:48 AM
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Part of Obama's skill as a politician was that he was everything to everyone. To nerds, he was the nerd candidate. To jocks, he was the jock candidate. He even managed to brand himself as more Irish than the guy whose name started with "Mc".

If we had anyone else who had that skill, we wouldn't be having this discussion right now, because we'd all already know who the Democratic nominee was.
We sure didn't already know who the Dem nominee would be on 12/5/2007, despite Obama's skill as a politician.
  #67  
Old 12-05-2019, 02:36 PM
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No one who saw Obama throw out a first pitch at a baseball game would confuse him for a jock.
  #68  
Old 12-05-2019, 02:53 PM
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No one who saw Obama throw out a first pitch at a baseball game would confuse him for a jock.
I’m not really sure how much of a jock vote there really is. George H W. Bush had the wimp factor even after playing college baseball and flying planes in WW II. Gerald Ford was seen as bumbling even after his career playing college football. No one voted for Bill Bradley in 2000 because of his basketball career.
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  #69  
Old Yesterday, 09:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Lord Feldon View Post
All of this BS is why it was a mistake for the parties to get involved in debates at all. Until very recently, debates were arranged by negotiation between the campaigns and organizations that wanted to host them, and any disputes about participation could thus be offloaded onto those entities rather than tainting the entire race. I have no idea why the DNC continued its involvement after getting nothing but strife for arranging things in 2016.
I have to agree.

I don't know what the answer is.

I remember a time when debates of sorts would occur in the editorial sections of the NYT and Washington Post but I doubt that would work these days
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