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  #2801  
Old 11-24-2019, 02:09 PM
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My man Joe had a good interview on CNN last week. Looking forward to the Biden presidency.
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  #2802  
Old 11-25-2019, 07:32 PM
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New poll from Morning Consult:

Biden: 30% (-2)
Sanders: 21% (+1)
Warren: 15% (-2)
Buttigieg: 9% (+1)
Harris: 5%
Yang: 4% (+1)
Bloomberg: 2% (-1)

My first thought it is the Warren surge to frontrunner was short-lived. She got more pressing about how to pay for her plans in that time than the previous six months combined among the democrats and it's hit her candidacy.

My second thought is in this primary Biden is teflon. He's been predicted to be doomed for months yet here he is still where he needs to be. He was already leading the polls months before announcing his candidacy and now he's been in seven months officially and still leads per the poll trackers. Moreover he's yet to have a debate where he's really come out better than he went in and we're almost halfway through the debate cycle. Plus Trump/GOP congressmen are trying to take him down to save their own backs. It's very polarising because he seems to be the weakest frontrunner the dems have had in several cycles because you got people polling at 1% trolling him on stage as out of touch and befuddled, yet his durability is underrated.
  #2803  
Old 11-25-2019, 10:53 PM
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Biden will be the nominee. He was always going to be the nominee. The other 15-20 candidates, bless their hearts, have shown a lot of gumption. But Biden will be the nominee.
  #2804  
Old 11-25-2019, 11:37 PM
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... My second thought is in this primary Biden is teflon. He's been predicted to be doomed for months yet here he is still where he needs to be. He was already leading the polls months before announcing his candidacy and now he's been in seven months officially and still leads per the poll trackers. Moreover he's yet to have a debate where he's really come out better than he went in and we're almost halfway through the debate cycle. Plus Trump/GOP congressmen are trying to take him down to save their own backs. It's very polarising because he seems to be the weakest frontrunner the dems have had in several cycles because you got people polling at 1% trolling him on stage as out of touch and befuddled, yet his durability is underrated.
"But here's the thing" - he's not lost much support but neither has he grown any. And I'd WAG that it will be harder for him to grow support than to lose it. (Despite the fact he's listed as second choice for many.) Is 30% going to be enough to win as the field winnows? And note that his position in Iowa and New Hampshire is not as great. Part of that 30% are those who see him as the most electable, as safer than other options: do they keep thinking that if he fails to place in the top three in either of those first two contests?
  #2805  
Old 11-26-2019, 12:55 AM
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My money is on Biden. His base of support is old people. Old people actually show up on election day and vote. They don't forget because they're too busy posting on Instagram or [insert stereotypical millennial activity here]. I expect Biden will outperform the his poll numbers in both Iowa and New Hampshire. I can't say whether he'll win those states, but he'll avoid a total disaster. That will leave him well-positioned for Nevada and South Carolina, where I expect hell win solidly. After that, if he sweeps the southern states on Super Tuesday, he'll have an insurmountable lead.
  #2806  
Old 11-26-2019, 01:27 AM
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Maybe Biden and Trump can have a p*ssy grabbing contest on stage as a more manly form of electoral combat. Or they can have a racist joke contest for the talent portion. Not sure I want to see either one in a bathing suit, so hope they skip that one for a hamburder eating contest instead.

I really don't like Biden. I think he's an embarrassment to the party, and is Trumpkin lite. I'm sure he'd still be a better president, just cos literally anyone would be a better president than Trump. But I also don't think Biden stands a chance against the Orange One. But who knows, anything is possible. I guess.
  #2807  
Old 11-26-2019, 01:32 AM
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Maybe Biden and Trump can have a p*ssy grabbing contest on stage as a more manly form of electoral combat. Or they can have a racist joke contest for the talent portion. Not sure I want to see either one in a bathing suit, so hope they skip that one for a hamburder eating contest instead.
...
Biden is likely the least racist old white dude in office. As compared to trump, who is likely just the opposite.

So, he is nothing like trump.
  #2808  
Old 11-26-2019, 01:34 PM
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At this point, there's nobody in the running that has made me think, "well, not them," and that's especially true of the four frontrunners. I imagine one will pull ahead for me as we get closer to the primaries. I hope so, because that's the only election that's really going to count for me, because I would vote for a literal turd over Trump if it got the nomination. And I don't say that lightly - I've been known to write in for Alan Smithee when I haven't particularly liked any of the candidates.
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Last edited by DannyBeans; 11-26-2019 at 01:35 PM.
  #2809  
Old 11-26-2019, 02:04 PM
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My man Joe had a good interview on CNN last week. Looking forward to the Biden presidency.
You and me both.

______

One reason we "oldies" (speaking only for myself, not Siam Sam!) are loyal to Biden is because we've literally grown old with him. We know better than most that being older does not preclude being smart or able. In fact, we understand how much experience counts -- especially in politics.

Joe Biden, like any other long-term civil servant, has a long public record of work. Few take into account the atmosphere of the times in which various decisions/votes were made. As someone who lived through them, I have no trouble overlooking what others consider horrible misjudgment.

Example: Biden's vote to grant Bush the Lesser the AUMF to invade Iraq is well understood within the circumstances at that time. Citizens were terrified after 9/11. "If you aren't with us, you're against us!" is exactly what the Bush Administration was saying at the time -- and many people did feel that way (though not all of us). There was enormous pressure on all legislators to go along with what Bush, a new president at that time, wanted. Legislators trusted Bush would not abuse the power he had been given (in hindsight, ha ha). Bernie's vote, now seen as prescient, was very much an outlier in that moment. For the record, I agreed with Bernie, but I can understand why most of the other Dems did not and I never held their vote against them.

For me, public service experience matters -- especially in the arena of foreign policy. Biden is hammering this home, and well he should. Hillary deeply understood through her many years of public service just how dangerous Russia is to American interests and would have pursued a tough agenda with them. It's why Russia wanted Trump and were willing to risk everything to have him. Turned out to be a good bet. For them.

Lots of people see Biden as a gaffe-prone bumbler, which I get, and conclude he's past his prime, which I don't. But that's because I'm older myself. I know Biden has always been gaffe-prone. He has always stumbled when speaking without a teleprompter. Public speaking is not his strong suit. I recently learned one reason why: He suffered from a stutter in his childhood, which he apparently overcame through sheer force of will. I find that admirable.

Lastly, Biden has proved over a 40-ish year long career in public service that he is incorruptible. If the best that can be found to smear him is a Board of Directors position taken ill-advisedly but not illegally by his son, well, I'm not surprised. I trust him because he's given me reason to over a lifetime.

Biden believes in bridging differences and building on consensus to the extent that's possible. I think integrity and honesty going forward are essential. These qualities and his experience are the reasons Obama picked Biden over many other available choices to be his Veep. Biden has proved again and again he deserves this responsibility. I hope we give it to him.

Last edited by Aspenglow; 11-26-2019 at 02:06 PM. Reason: correct a disagreeable verb
  #2810  
Old 11-26-2019, 02:50 PM
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....

Example: Biden's vote to grant Bush the Lesser the AUMF to invade Iraq is well understood within the circumstances at that time. Citizens were terrified after 9/11. "If you aren't with us, you're against us!" is exactly what the Bush Administration was saying at the time -- and many people did feel that way (though not all of us)...
And Biden said that Bush promised him personally that Bush would not use that vote to invade.
  #2811  
Old 11-27-2019, 05:34 PM
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Recent general election polls of note:

I review below polls by highly rated pollsters which surveyed either a swing State or the whole country, which were released since November 1.

National polls first:

A-rated Survey USA has a nice poll yesterday, showing all the major Democrats and Bloomberg beating either Trump or Pence by margins of at least 5 points nationally.

A-rated Emerson College had a national poll which showed Buttigieg and Biden losing to Trump, Warren breaking even, and only Sanders winning. BERNIE FOR THE WIN Y'ALL!!

A VERY nice national poll from A-rated ABC News shows that only against Harris would Trump even have a chance to lose by less than ten points!

Zeroing in on swing States:

A-rated Emerson College polled two samples in NH: in both, Buttigieg was the strongest against Trump. Sanders and Biden also beat him in both samples. Yang and Warren beat him in one sample but not in the other (and how much must it piss Kamala Harris off that pollsters are now including Yang and not her?).

Iowa isn't really a swing State, but there was one good poll from there, which I checked to see if Mayor Pete's focus on the early primary States might be helping him there, too. Nope; it showed all four Dems losing, with Biden and Sanders losing by less than Mayor Pete and Warren by more.

A/B rated Marquette Law School dropped an unpleasant poll showing all the major Dems plus Klobuchar losing Wisconsin to Trump, with the only Dem beating him there being...Cory Booker?! But an NYT poll shows Biden and Sanders barely winning and Warren barely losing there.

A Fox News poll of Nevada shows Biden and Sanders at +7, Warren +3, Buttigieg even. An Emerson College poll there shows a much tighter race, with Sanders a toss-up and Warren and Biden narrowly losing.

A Fox poll in NC has Biden +2, Sanders +1, Warren -1, Buttigeig -4. But an NYT poll shows all the Dems losing there.

A Fox poll in PA has Biden +9, Warren and Sanders both +5. An NYT poll shows a much closer race and suggests that Biden, Sanders, and Warren, in that order, would be the Dem's best choice.

An NYT poll of Michigan shows that Warren would lose there, Biden would be a toss-up, and Sanders would win. GO BERNIE!! An Emerson College poll is much friendlier to the Dems, showing all three candidates as easy winners, but with the same Sanders-Biden-Warren pecking order.

But their poll of Arizona suggests that Sanders would be a loser there, with Warren as a toss-up and Biden winning.

An NYT poll of FL shows Biden beating Trump there, Warren and Sanders losing.

Georgia may be in play. A Survey USA poll there shows Biden, Sanders and Warren beating Trump there (Harris, Mayor Pete and Mayor Mike not). A U of Georgia poll didn't include Bloomberg but has all five of the others beating Trump (Biden most comfortably).

Conclusions: It looks like Biden and Sanders are our strongest candidates; the gap which separated Biden from Sanders a few months ago seems to have vanished. A month or so ago, it looked like Warren might be cracking the top tier, but now she's clearly lagging behind again. Accordingly, I will hold my nose and reinstate Biden over Warren as my second choice.
  #2812  
Old 11-27-2019, 05:49 PM
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So assuming the swing State polls are accurate, we project the following EC results for the possible candidates;

Biden 313, Trump 187, 31 too close to call (NV, NC and WI all had one poll showing Biden winning and one showing him losing)

Sanders 279, Trump 227, TCTC 25 (Sanders wins Nevada, but loses Arizona and Florida)

Trump 241, Warren 233, TCTC 57 (Warren loses Florida, NC and Wisconsin; NV/AZ/MI/PA/NH are tossups).

Not really enough data to fairly evaluate any of the other candidates, but there appears to be little evidence any of them would do better than Warren.
  #2813  
Old 11-28-2019, 12:01 AM
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Biden will be the nominee. He was always going to be the nominee. The other 15-20 candidates, bless their hearts, have shown a lot of gumption. But Biden will be the nominee.
The other 15-20 candidates have really, from day one, been auditioning for the VP slot, and they all know it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Aspenglow View Post
One reason we "oldies" (speaking only for myself, not Siam Sam!) are loyal to Biden is because we've literally grown old with him. We know better than most that being older does not preclude being smart or able. In fact, we understand how much experience counts -- especially in politics.

Joe Biden, like any other long-term civil servant, has a long public record of work. Few take into account the atmosphere of the times in which various decisions/votes were made. As someone who lived through them, I have no trouble overlooking what others consider horrible misjudgment.

Example: Biden's vote to grant Bush the Lesser the AUMF to invade Iraq is well understood within the circumstances at that time. Citizens were terrified after 9/11. "If you aren't with us, you're against us!" is exactly what the Bush Administration was saying at the time -- and many people did feel that way (though not all of us). There was enormous pressure on all legislators to go along with what Bush, a new president at that time, wanted. Legislators trusted Bush would not abuse the power he had been given (in hindsight, ha ha). Bernie's vote, now seen as prescient, was very much an outlier in that moment. For the record, I agreed with Bernie, but I can understand why most of the other Dems did not and I never held their vote against them.

For me, public service experience matters -- especially in the arena of foreign policy. Biden is hammering this home, and well he should. Hillary deeply understood through her many years of public service just how dangerous Russia is to American interests and would have pursued a tough agenda with them. It's why Russia wanted Trump and were willing to risk everything to have him. Turned out to be a good bet. For them.

Lots of people see Biden as a gaffe-prone bumbler, which I get, and conclude he's past his prime, which I don't. But that's because I'm older myself. I know Biden has always been gaffe-prone. He has always stumbled when speaking without a teleprompter. Public speaking is not his strong suit. I recently learned one reason why: He suffered from a stutter in his childhood, which he apparently overcame through sheer force of will. I find that admirable.

Lastly, Biden has proved over a 40-ish year long career in public service that he is incorruptible. If the best that can be found to smear him is a Board of Directors position taken ill-advisedly but not illegally by his son, well, I'm not surprised. I trust him because he's given me reason to over a lifetime.

Biden believes in bridging differences and building on consensus to the extent that's possible. I think integrity and honesty going forward are essential. These qualities and his experience are the reasons Obama picked Biden over many other available choices to be his Veep. Biden has proved again and again he deserves this responsibility. I hope we give it to him.
I'd say you do speak for me too. Plus President Obama thinks very highly of Biden, and that carries a lot of weight with me too.
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  #2814  
Old 11-28-2019, 12:54 AM
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The other 15-20 candidates have really, from day one, been auditioning for the VP slot, and they all know it.




I'd say you do speak for me too. Plus President Obama thinks very highly of Biden, and that carries a lot of weight with me too.
Really, once your campaign gets serious, you aren't gonna be veep. Now, so far, we're not really at the serious stage, i will admit.

I concur, altho i have reservations.
  #2815  
Old 11-28-2019, 04:58 AM
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And Biden said that Bush promised him personally that Bush would not use that vote to invade.
Clinton also voted for the AUMF and gave a major Senate speech explaining her intent with the vote was to REDUCE the chance of war. And yet Clinton was harassed as a war-monger repeatedly by Berniebros etc. for that vote!

Democrats often act as their own worst enemies.
  #2816  
Old 11-28-2019, 01:13 PM
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Example: Biden's vote to grant Bush the Lesser the AUMF to invade Iraq is well understood within the circumstances at that time. Citizens were terrified after 9/11. "If you aren't with us, you're against us!" is exactly what the Bush Administration was saying at the time -- and many people did feel that way (though not all of us). There was enormous pressure on all legislators to go along with what Bush, a new president at that time, wanted. Legislators trusted Bush would not abuse the power he had been given (in hindsight, ha ha). Bernie's vote, now seen as prescient, was very much an outlier in that moment. For the record, I agreed with Bernie, but I can understand why most of the other Dems did not and I never held their vote against them.
I find this view frankly incomprehensible. A politician may only face a few such clear-cut situations calling for clear-sightedness and moral courage in the course of their career, and it's fair to base our judgments of them in large part on how they respond.

Besides, your memory is inaccurate. Bernie Sanders wasn't some lone voice of reason in the wilderness on this; MOST of the House Democratic Caucus did the right thing, as did 21 of 50 Democratic Senators. You don't need the benefit of hindsight to know that giving George W. Bush carte blanche to invade Iraq was a terrible idea. Everyone who was paying attention know it at the time, apparently including you. Why are you willing to let a US Senator off the hook for making a crucial mistake which you yourself would have known not to make?
  #2817  
Old 11-28-2019, 01:14 PM
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And Biden said that Bush promised him personally that Bush would not use that vote to invade.
Wow, he couldn't figure out that Bush was lying based on the fact his lips were moving? This Biden fellow sounds like a gullible fool. Let's not give him anything important to do.
  #2818  
Old 11-28-2019, 01:16 PM
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Clinton also voted for the AUMF and gave a major Senate speech explaining her intent with the vote was to REDUCE the chance of war. And yet Clinton was harassed as a war-monger repeatedly by Berniebros etc. for that vote!

Democrats often act as their own worst enemies.
So she was either lying about her intent, or was incredibly stupid to believe that her vote would somehow do the opposite of what it was obviously intended to do. Which of those interpretations do you think makes her look better?
  #2819  
Old 11-28-2019, 01:38 PM
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Wow, he couldn't figure out that Bush was lying based on the fact his lips were moving? This Biden fellow sounds like a gullible fool. Let's not give him anything important to do.
Not at that time. It took a while before we knew what a dick the Shrub was.
  #2820  
Old 11-28-2019, 06:13 PM
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Who is this “we”? I knew. Bernie Sanders knew. The majority of the House Democratic Caucus knew.

To quote Arlo Guthrie, “if you didn’t know about that one...well then, what else don’t you know?”

Last edited by Thing Fish; 11-28-2019 at 06:14 PM.
  #2821  
Old 11-28-2019, 06:34 PM
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It is is extremely hard to call that a "hindsight is 20/20" situation. Almost cowardly. Even the Dems like Clinton who voted supposedly to avert war, the whole thing was still to show Iraq just how big America's balls were. It was dangerous sabre rattling at best.

Eta: the moral of story is don't sabre rattle around your big balls.

Last edited by CarnalK; 11-28-2019 at 06:38 PM.
  #2822  
Old 11-28-2019, 09:01 PM
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Biden will be the nominee. He was always going to be the nominee.
No sir, YOU are the nominee. You've always been the nominee. I ought to know: I've always been here.

Love,
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Last edited by I Love Me, Vol. I; 11-28-2019 at 09:02 PM. Reason: must edit
  #2823  
Old 11-30-2019, 03:19 PM
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Thing Fish, thanks for that analysis of the state polls. IMO Sanders has a lot of vulnerabilities which would be exposed in GOP attack ads in the general. Biden is much more of a known figure to the general public so he is less vulnerable so overall I think he is the best bet though I understand the worries about his age and sharpness.
  #2824  
Old 11-30-2019, 04:05 PM
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No sir, YOU are the nominee. You've always been the nominee. I ought to know: I've always been here.

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Ha! Clever!
  #2825  
Old 12-01-2019, 12:58 AM
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Biden is much more of a known figure to the general public so he is less vulnerable so overall I think he is the best bet though ...
Plus he scares the bejesus out of Chump.
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  #2826  
Old 12-03-2019, 01:27 PM
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Kamala Harris dropping out: https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/03/polit...bid/index.html
  #2827  
Old 12-03-2019, 05:18 PM
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As far as I'm concerned, Joe Biden is still the best, although Pete Buttigieg intrigues me.
  #2828  
Old 12-03-2019, 07:20 PM
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As far as I'm concerned, Joe Biden is still the best, although Pete Buttigieg intrigues me.
Mayor Pete in 2028!
  #2829  
Old 12-03-2019, 11:10 PM
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If he doesn't win the nomination he'd best run for Senator or governor. His mayoral record is nothing special, he needs to prove he's a good executive.
  #2830  
Old 12-04-2019, 12:30 AM
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If he doesn't win the nomination he'd best run for Senator or governor. His mayoral record is nothing special, he needs to prove he's a good executive.
He could get a Seat on the Cabinet.
  #2831  
Old 12-04-2019, 12:54 AM
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If he doesn't win the nomination he'd best run for Senator or governor. His mayoral record is nothing special, he needs to prove he's a good executive.
He's not gonna win statewide office in Indiana, and his Congressional district is pretty red. The Cabinet isn't much of a launching pad for the presidency. He needs to leave Indiana. We'd be happy to have him in Michigan, as Congressman or even Senator when Stabenow retires.
  #2832  
Old 12-04-2019, 01:14 AM
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He's not gonna win statewide office in Indiana, and his Congressional district is pretty red. The Cabinet isn't much of a launching pad for the presidency. He needs to leave Indiana. We'd be happy to have him in Michigan, as Congressman or even Senator when Stabenow retires.
There was a Dem Gov of Indiana as recently as 2005. And Dem senator recently left in 2019.
  #2833  
Old 12-04-2019, 01:16 AM
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I suspect the real issue is that winning statewide office in Indiana would make him unnominatable in a Democratic primary.
  #2834  
Old 12-04-2019, 01:20 AM
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So as we inch toward the first votes of the 2020 primary, I want to go on the record (if only for my own self-interest): If the primary were held today in my state (Michigan), I would hands-down vote for Joe Biden. Yes, I really, really like Warren (she's actually already gotten money from my household), but I'm fully on board believing Joe is the candidate for the times we live in. Plus, a week or so ago, he mentioned in an interview that Sally Yates was on his radar for veep, which gives me optimism. I've been a fan of hers for running mate for a few months now, and to hear him articulate what I've been thinking about gives me hope that he's thinking along the same lines I am. I can definitely vote for him, old age and sloppy tongue and all. Biden-Yates would be my dream ticket as of now.

So, to continue this line of thought (and I don't really know that we need another thread to have this discussion): Who would you vote for if the primary were today in your state?
  #2835  
Old 12-04-2019, 01:24 AM
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I suspect the real issue is that winning statewide office in Indiana would make him unnominatable in a Democratic primary.
Yes. A Democrat winning statewide office in Indiana these days is not a Democrat that will do well in a Democratic primary in most other states. He would have to swing so far right that he'd be a Republican in every other Midwestern state.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 12-04-2019 at 01:24 AM.
  #2836  
Old 12-04-2019, 08:31 AM
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Personally I'm inclined to support Klobuchar. I want someone who understands the realities of DC politics and has the responsiblity to be honest about it but also who is going to be a good incumbent in 2024. I just don't think someone who crosses 80 years old ought to be running again for a second term but the flipside is I don't think a 37 year old whose resume in elected office is flimsy ought to jump from a mayor of a small town to 'leader of the free world'.

I look at Klobuchar and see someone who is about the perfect age for the presidency, who has a record of getting bills passed while others just talk, who wins elections in a so-called purple state. She might be boring but I don't care. Boring > chaos and boring but effective > charismatic but ineffective.
  #2837  
Old 12-04-2019, 09:18 AM
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If the nominee had to be someone in the more moderate side of the party, I'd much rather have Klobuchar than either Biden or Buttigieg.

I think the latter two would both get rolled by the Republicans as President (if they won), the former because his mind's still back when TipnRonnie could sit down and come to an agreement, and the latter because he really doesn't know shit. The vibe I get from Klobuchar is that she's not easily rolled.
  #2838  
Old 12-04-2019, 09:33 AM
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I've met Sen. Klobuchar and heard her speak, and would be inclined to support her were it not for recurring reports that she's an ogre to those who work for her.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/22/u...har-staff.html
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019...-temper-rumors
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/amy-k...b00eed08341067
  #2839  
Old 12-04-2019, 09:41 AM
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Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
If the nominee had to be someone in the more moderate side of the party, I'd much rather have Klobuchar than either Biden or Buttigieg.

I think the latter two would both get rolled by the Republicans as President (if they won), the former because his mind's still back when TipnRonnie could sit down and come to an agreement, and the latter because he really doesn't know shit. The vibe I get from Klobuchar is that she's not easily rolled.
I agree with this. I think Klobuchar is an exceptionally smart and skilled Senator, and even if she isn't the most skilled communicator (i.e. not on the level of Reagan, Bill Clinton, or Obama), I think her other skills make up for this relative lack (and she's not bad at this at all -- way better than Hillary, IMO).

My preferences, in order, right now:

Warren/Sanders (I'm fine with either one)
Klobuchar
Booker
Castro
Buttigieg
Yang
Steyer
Tulsi
Biden/Bloomberg
  #2840  
Old 12-04-2019, 11:06 AM
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Not a fan of Biden but I think he is the nominee unless he has a major scandal or health problem. A main reason is older voters really like Biden and they vote at a much higher rate than younger people.
  #2841  
Old 12-04-2019, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
Plus, a week or so ago, he mentioned in an interview that Sally Yates was on his radar for veep, which gives me optimism. I've been a fan of hers for running mate for a few months now, and to hear him articulate what I've been thinking about gives me hope that he's thinking along the same lines I am. I can definitely vote for him, old age and sloppy tongue and all. Biden-Yates would be my dream ticket as of now.


This would be exactly the kind of VP blunder that Hillary made in 2016, and so of course it's something Biden would do. There's nothing whatsoever strategic about choosing Yates. She doesn't make up for any of Biden's weaknesses. She's a DC insider. She's white. At 59 years old she is still "old" to younger voters. She looks like the ultimate "Karen". About the only thing she adds to the ticket is being a woman. And, just like Tim Kaine, if Biden runs with her and loses, 5 years from now nobody will remember who his running mate was.

Sometimes I wonder if I'm living in the same universe as the other people following this election. Have we learned nothing from the past?
  #2842  
Old 12-04-2019, 12:49 PM
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Sally Yates: She's from Georgia (strategic southern purple-ish state), she's a career civil servant who ran the day-to-day of the DoJ (experienced at managing a federal department, ready to step in should the old man keel over at some point), she's not a "career politician" (which, for better or worse, carries a stigma with some voters), she was fired for standing up to Trump's illegal executive order which won the hearts of the early Resistance. And who exactly are your "younger" voters flocking to? Bernie. The dude's older than Biden. They're not flocking to Mayor Pete or Booker or Klobuchar or any of the other younger candidates. A candidate's age is no indication of whom younger voters will vote for. Regardless, I want to win over the blue collar Industrial Midwestern voters that either sat out or voted Trump in 2016 and rock-steady older voters. That's my justification for Biden and Yates.

Imo, we have learned from the past, and that's why Democratic/anti-Trump voters are actually showing up for elections since 2016 and not just assuming their vote isn't necessary any more.

My take: Voters have seen what a "deviant" candidate has looked like over the past three years (and by deviant, I mean outside the mainstream/center). If the economy's still humming in November 2020, I'd much rather have a more "normal" centrist ticket, like Biden-Yates, go up against Trump than something deviating from the norm (like Bernie or Mayor Pete or Warren or Stacy Abrams or Yang or whatever).

Bad economy, deviant president: Any Dem will likely win.
Good economy, deviant president, "deviant" Dem candidate: Trump will likely win, as people will vote for the devil that has "given" them a strong economy.
Good economy, deviant president, "normal" Dem candidate: Dem has a better chance of winning as people might just vote for a return to normalcy, good economic numbers be damned.

And I'm not sure why you're slapping your head at me. Did a fly land there?

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 12-04-2019 at 12:52 PM.
  #2843  
Old 12-05-2019, 02:42 PM
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For those who laugh at the SDMB being a target for Russian trolls, last nite one hit us, spreading a fake news story in three forums.

Interesting thing about the story- that a Ex-US Diplomat to Ukraine had been found dead- wasnt that story, it was the comments- where the made up comments were blaming the Clintons for murdering her, as if of course Hillary was a master Ninja.
  #2844  
Old 12-05-2019, 06:25 PM
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Well I guess today was the pilot of a new show: Joe and the Fatman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prYZdsAJDBc

Was that Ken Bone's brother, Ben Bone?
  #2845  
Old 12-06-2019, 04:14 AM
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Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
If the nominee had to be someone in the more moderate side of the party, I'd much rather have Klobuchar than either Biden or Buttigieg.

I think the latter two would both get rolled by the Republicans as President (if they won), the former because his mind's still back when TipnRonnie could sit down and come to an agreement, and the latter because he really doesn't know shit. The vibe I get from Klobuchar is that she's not easily rolled.
This is one case where I think we should acknowledge that Joe Biden knows his fellow Senators better than the media and we do. Biden had a lot of success negotiating with McConnell when he was allowed to by his boss.
  #2846  
Old 12-06-2019, 04:16 AM
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Well I guess today was the pilot of a new show: Joe and the Fatman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prYZdsAJDBc

Was that Ken Bone's brother, Ben Bone?
Joe found his inner Trump. He does need to just reconcile himself with the truth that Hunter is a very troubled boy who isn't above using his father's name to make a living. Joe shouldn't feel bad, George HW Bush had four kids like that.
  #2847  
Old 12-06-2019, 11:36 AM
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Does the Sanders campaign even bother to vet staff hires?

https://twitter.com/TrinityMustache/...85031682314240
  #2848  
Old 12-06-2019, 08:16 PM
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Does the Sanders campaign even bother to vet staff hires?

https://twitter.com/TrinityMustache/...85031682314240
I disagree that it's somehow 'not accidental' -- I think Bernie's a decent guy. But because he flirts with conspiracy theories and goes full-on populist, he attracts the occasional idiot chauvinist who puts up a 'progressive' facade but doesn't recognize his own 'bro-ness'

But yeah, the criticism of not doing background checks speaks to administrative weaknesses that are getting exposed.
  #2849  
Old 12-06-2019, 08:34 PM
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I don't know how old that guy is, but I was saying shit like that in high school. I probably would have been stupid enough to say it on Twitter if Twitter had existed at the time. There's a pretty big difference between someone who's 18 and someone who's 27. There's a difference between immature trash-talking and serious bigotry.

That's not really the point though, I understand, it's that nobody checked to see if shit like this was on his public online footprint before he was hired.
  #2850  
Old 12-07-2019, 12:32 PM
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Interesting article here: Why the US Left has failed black voters

Quote:
The problem is that the Democratic electorate isnít nearly as close to Sanders and Warren ideologically as some pundits would have you believe. Although Sanders essentially tied with Hillary Clinton with white voters, he lost black voters nationally by 50 points, which went a long way towards her winning the nomination. The candidate favored by black voters has won the Democratic primary in each contest going back to 1992. Black voters have an outsized influence on the primary process because of their concentration in the south, and because of their propensity to vote as a bloc. The south is a delegate rich region where white voters have abandoned the Democratic Party ó meaning the primary electorate of many of these states is plurality or majority black.

Black voters are also the most consistent Democrats in the general election, voting for Democratic presidents at a rate close to 90%. Failing to win over black voters can end your presidential campaign before it begins. So why does the left have so much trouble with this demographic?

To understand the current problems of the left, you have to know a bit of political history. Moderate and conservative whites have gradually left the Democratic Party since the mid-1960s in a party sorting process that is still ongoing. This phenomenon has its roots in the successes of the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act, when Democrats officially became the party of minority rights. This sorting process was especially intense early on in the southern states, but it has since spread throughout the county. The result has been that the whites who have remained in the Democratic Party are generally further to the left of the political spectrum.

The white voters who have remained in the Democratic Party on average tend to be better educated and less religious than both the white voters who fled for the GOP and the black rank and file Democrats who never left. White Democrats are further left ideologically than their black counterparts on a range of issues.

White voters in the Democratic Party are more likely to favor open immigration policies and take leftward stances on gender and sexuality. They are also more likely to have an ideological commitment to free college or free healthcare. Almost 80% of black Americans are Christian, and nearly half say they attend religious services once a week. This is a major divide from white liberals, of whom Frank Newport estimates only 4% are both ideologically liberal and highly religious.

Moreover, black voters tend to choose candidates that have worked hard to build a relationship with their community over time. Because of the unique history of black Americans, earning the trust of this community is not an overnight affair. Going back 30 years, nominees such as Barack Obama and the Clintons had deep ties to the black community before even deciding to run for president.

This is in stark contrast to Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, candidates favored by the white left that have struggled mightily to pick up black support. Neither Sanders nor Warren spent much time building relationships with black voters prior to deciding to run for President. And they are not alone on the left in this regard. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was largely unable to move black voters in her direction during her primary; her strength was mostly with college educated whites. Trying to attract black voters after the fact is extremely difficult.

One of the leftís biggest problems with black voters is their rhetorical focus on class. The leftís primary objective is to take on the billionaires and corporate elite. The class-first narrative posits that members of the working class have a common enemy ó the wealthy.

This argument doesnít fit with the lived experience of many black Americans, who have endured racism at the hands of poor and wealthy whites alike. For instance, there is a long history of racism in unions. This isnít the wealthy using schemes to divide the poor along racial lines either; a sizable percentage of whites regardless of class have come to hold these views on their own.
https://forward.com/opinion/435826/w...-black-voters/

It matches why Biden has such a lead with black voters. The older ones back him. From his days as a senator he built up a relationship with them.

He is fondly perceived by the black community and black public officials in Delaware even if they didn't always see eye to eye on an issue...because he was always there to hear them out. He met with community leaders, preachers, activists, groups. He invited them to address their grievences and worked with them. In fact he is remembered fondly for being the only white lifeguard at a segregated swimming pool as a college student.

It's also why after he made those stupid comments at a fundraiser of being civil to people like James Eastland, a lot of the older black public officials in Congress or Delaware -- while disapproving of the comment -- didn't turn on him and in fact gave him a defence. Because they've known him for decades. Some of them don't support him for president, but they like the guy.
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