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  #251  
Old 10-16-2019, 10:05 AM
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I'm afraid it doesn't matter which of the Astros or Yankees wins. This is Washington's year and their starting pitching will be well rested and dominant by the time the WS starts.
You should get online and get a bet down then. Current WS odds, per Vegas Insider, (who unfortunately don't cite a book(s)) have DC as a 2/1 bet. Astros are 7/5 and the Yankees are 9/4.

Scherzer/Strasburg/Sanchez are a pretty nifty 1-3 punch, to be fair. Should be a fun series, no matter if the Astros or Yankees end up winning the AL.
  #252  
Old 10-16-2019, 10:56 AM
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538 is giving Washington a 41 percent chance of winning, which seems a bit low to me since they will have a chance to set up their rotation.
  #253  
Old 10-16-2019, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Gray Ghost View Post
You should get online and get a bet down then. Current WS odds, per Vegas Insider, (who unfortunately don't cite a book(s)) have DC as a 2/1 bet. Astros are 7/5 and the Yankees are 9/4.
Great odds on Washington. I'll take that action as soon as I get home.
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  #254  
Old 10-16-2019, 01:34 PM
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Game 4 officially rained out. Will be a Tanaka/Greinke rematch for game 4 Thursday, and a Verlander/Paxton rematch for Game 5.
  #255  
Old 10-16-2019, 02:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Tom Scud View Post
538 is giving Washington a 41 percent chance of winning, which seems a bit low to me since they will have a chance to set up their rotation.
The Astros and Yankees are better teams, and the ability to set up one's rotation has a fairly limited window of advantage. It can really only give you a significant edge in one game - if the other team is unable to pitch their #3 starter a second time, and their #4 has to go twice.

Having said that it's kinda pointless to set odds now unless you know who they're playing. Honestly I think the Astros are a measurably better team than the Yankees, and Washington - or anyone - has a better chance if they play New York.
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  #256  
Old 10-16-2019, 02:37 PM
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Very happy that Washington won. Just wanted to see more games.

It is a long drought until Spring training.
  #257  
Old 10-17-2019, 07:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Tom Scud View Post
538 is giving Washington a 41 percent chance of winning, which seems a bit low to me since they will have a chance to set up their rotation.
But they're also giving the Astros a 41% chance of winning and the Yankees a 19% chance. Once the AL has a champion, the odds will change, but they currently rank the Astros and Nats as about equal.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

Last edited by madmonk28; 10-17-2019 at 07:18 AM.
  #258  
Old 10-17-2019, 10:09 AM
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That's not how statistics work. The Astro's 41% chance is taking into account the fact that they haven't won the LCS yet.
  #259  
Old 10-17-2019, 10:30 AM
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Well, yeah, that's why madmonk28 said "Once the AL has a champion, the odds will change." Washingtoon's 41 percent chance is an averaging of their chances against Houston and NY.

Barring an injury between now and then I'd assume against Houston the Nationals will see their chances dip maybe one or two percent, against New York maybe up one or two. Maybe not, the difference is pretty thin.
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  #260  
Old 10-17-2019, 12:15 PM
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Not sure why Stanton is on the ALCS roster. It seems like he can't play two days without getting hurt.

Obviously a big one tonight in NY. Still, the Yanks must beat one of the two Astro aces to advance. Not an easy task.
  #261  
Old 10-17-2019, 01:18 PM
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He played Game 1 and had two hits.

Once you disable a guy, at this point he's gone for good. Any player disabled in a postseason series is gone for that series AND the next one. I can understand not wanting to drop Stanton now and losing him for the World Series too.
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  #262  
Old 10-17-2019, 11:28 PM
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Astros mowing down the Yankees nicely.....
  #263  
Old 10-17-2019, 11:34 PM
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That's not how statistics work. The Astro's 41% chance is taking into account the fact that they haven't won the LCS yet.
Brain fart on me.
  #264  
Old 10-18-2019, 08:54 AM
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Astros mowing down the Yankees nicely.....
Yeah. Makes me wonder what happened in Game 1.
  #265  
Old 10-18-2019, 10:09 AM
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Doesn't look good for the Yanks. Astros were the team to beat, but Yanks had chances in games 2 & 3 that they didn't capitalize on. Damn.
  #266  
Old 10-18-2019, 10:24 AM
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While rooting for the Astros to mow down the Yankees, I was sort of pulling for C.C. Sabathia last night.

With all those clean-cut young executives on the roster for N.Y., it was refreshing to see Sabathia rumble out to the mound in an ill-fitting uniform, belly protruding, sporting what looked like at least a week's worth of beard stubble* - and still get two outs before having to leave the game with an injury.

That's probably the last time we'll see him pitch in a major league game. Quite a career.

*George Weiss (onetime Yankees G.M. who was anxious about catering to the sensibilities of white suburban Yankees fans) probably was somersaulting in his grave.
  #267  
Old 10-18-2019, 10:58 AM
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Yes, sad to see Sabathia get hurt. But as an Astros fan that was the only thing to be sad about last night! I have been questioning the Astros' acquisition of Grienke, but in spite of some bumps in the road I could begin to see his value. And I have doubted our bullpen for awhile, but they were fine last night. Even James. He throws so hard it's not surprising he gives up home runs, but he was able to finish the inning. Osuna has had me worried more than once but in the post season he has mostly been fine.

Now, whether we can finish the Yankees off on the road tonight is another question, and the biggest question is if we can beat the Nats.
  #268  
Old 10-18-2019, 09:59 PM
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That was a rough game. Now the question is should the Astros go with a bullpen game or with Cole on short rest tomorrow. I think a bullpen game would be better, but that’s just my personal opinion.
  #269  
Old 10-18-2019, 10:17 PM
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As a Nats fan, I’d much rather face the Yankees, but I can’t bring myself to root for them.

I was on a Nats fan site and I was surprised how many of the posters were Canadians who had been Expos fans, I was also surprised that they were from all over Canada, from coast to coast.
  #270  
Old 10-18-2019, 10:21 PM
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As a Nats fan, Iíd much rather face the Yankees, but I canít bring myself to root for them.
snip
Same. I'm gonna be watching most of the World Series on a cruise ship, and presumably there will be more Yankees fans there than Astros fans. I feel better about our chances against the Yankees, though.
  #271  
Old Yesterday, 09:18 AM
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That was a rough game. Now the question is should the Astros go with a bullpen game or with Cole on short rest tomorrow. I think a bullpen game would be better, but thatís just my personal opinion.
Definite bullpen/Urquidy game. If you go with Cole on short rest, and he's off, you have to do the bullpen game for game 7 anyway.
  #272  
Old Yesterday, 09:21 AM
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That was a rough game. Now the question is should the Astros go with a bullpen game or with Cole on short rest tomorrow. I think a bullpen game would be better, but thatís just my personal opinion.
Astros have 2 chances to end the Yanks season at home. They have a huge home field advantage. Try to win tonight, bullpen vs. bullpen. Even if they do lose they have Cole, who the Yanks don't hit this year, to close it out. Bonus, if they close it out tonight, Cole in game 1 of the World Series.

Cole on short rest, when today's starters just don't do well with short rest, increases the chance of the Yanks taking both games. If they beat Cole as he is actually hittable on short rest, suddenly I like the chances of the Yanks winning game 7.

So to be honest I hope Cole pitches tonight.

Quote:
Originally Posted by madmonk28 View Post
As a Nats fan, Iíd much rather face the Yankees, but I canít bring myself to root for them.

I was on a Nats fan site and I was surprised how many of the posters were Canadians who had been Expos fans, I was also surprised that they were from all over Canada, from coast to coast.
I think either team will beat the Nats. But I agree the Nats match up to the Yanks a little better as no one matches up well to the Astros.
  #273  
Old Yesterday, 10:25 AM
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Currrently the MLB site says probable pitcher tonight TBD for both Astros and Yankees. For tomorrow night says Yankees Severino Astros Cole. So probably the Astros are going to play it smart and start someone else tonight. Maybe Urquidy. He has had some great moments and some terrible ones. We will see. I kind of like Peacock, actually.
  #274  
Old Yesterday, 11:36 AM
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Astros have 2 chances to end the Yanks season at home. They have a huge home field advantage. Try to win tonight, bullpen vs. bullpen. Even if they do lose they have Cole, who the Yanks don't hit this year, to close it out. Bonus, if they close it out tonight, Cole in game 1 of the World Series.

Cole on short rest, when today's starters just don't do well with short rest, increases the chance of the Yanks taking both games. If they beat Cole as he is actually hittable on short rest, suddenly I like the chances of the Yanks winning game 7.
Yeah, I still think Verlander on short rest was correct in game 4 of the Tampa series, but this is not the same situation. Would be a much harder choice if the Yankees were up 3-2.
  #275  
Old Yesterday, 12:08 PM
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I wonder if they're regretting leaving Miley off the roster. I would be.
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  #276  
Old Yesterday, 12:33 PM
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I wonder if they're regretting leaving Miley off the roster. I would be.
Miley mostly fell off a cliff since August. It's like his arm just went dead. I think he had one or two decent outings out of several chances. Some of those chances were things like 5 ER, 0.1 IP, yadda yadda. Just awful.

Believe me, if he had anything at all, he'd be there. As their only LHP bullpen arm if anything.

EDIT: it doesn't matter who pitches if the Astros can only score 1 run. They need that fixed. Now.

Last edited by Gray Ghost; Yesterday at 12:36 PM.
  #277  
Old Yesterday, 12:57 PM
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I think either team will beat the Nats. But I agree the Nats match up to the Yanks a little better as no one matches up well to the Astros.
I also think each team will beat the Nats. But I thought the Dodgers would beat the Nats and here we are.
  #278  
Old Yesterday, 07:52 PM
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Miley mostly fell off a cliff since August. It's like his arm just went dead. I think he had one or two decent outings out of several chances. Some of those chances were things like 5 ER, 0.1 IP, yadda yadda. Just awful.

Believe me, if he had anything at all, he'd be there. As their only LHP bullpen arm if anything.

EDIT: it doesn't matter who pitches if the Astros can only score 1 run. They need that fixed. Now.
Yes and yes. I hope Verlander doesn't feel like he cost the Astros the game yesterday. The Astros had 8 innings to score four runs and could not get it done. And 9 left on base. That is sorry.
  #279  
Old Yesterday, 08:06 PM
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Yes and yes. I hope Verlander doesn't feel like he cost the Astros the game yesterday. The Astros had 8 innings to score four runs and could not get it done. And 9 left on base. That is sorry.
But he gave up 4 runs, so he didn't pitch well.
  #280  
Old Yesterday, 08:19 PM
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One of the Yankees failed to run out a routine grounder to second. Oh well, just another game I guess.
  #281  
Old Yesterday, 08:42 PM
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Gio goes deep!

Only 1 run down now.
  #282  
Old Yesterday, 08:46 PM
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Gardner misses just misses a homer and then slaps a single through the huge gap for the shift.
  #283  
Old Yesterday, 09:23 PM
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All right Astros, put these Yankees to bed right now.


(As a Rangers fan, it pains me to see the Astros in dynasty mode like this, especially after our 2011 collapse, but Texas over New York any day)
  #284  
Old Yesterday, 09:59 PM
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Damn, I thought they were going to steal another hit. Correa just missed a great play off Judge. Hopefully the Yanks can do some damage with a lead-off hit.
  #285  
Old Yesterday, 10:50 PM
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Hopefully the Yankees can extend the game to 6 more outs.
  #286  
Old Yesterday, 10:53 PM
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Hopefully the Yankees can extend the game to 6 more outs.
I know it is instinct to get out of the way of the ball, but I wish Gardner has the presence of mind to be hit by that early bad pitch.
  #287  
Old Yesterday, 10:59 PM
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Holy Shit! 2 run homer.
  #288  
Old Yesterday, 11:01 PM
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No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  #289  
Old Yesterday, 11:18 PM
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FUCK!
  #290  
Old Yesterday, 11:21 PM
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The two-run homer off the spouse-abusing closer giveth, and the two-run homer off the spouse-abusing closer taketh away.
  #291  
Old Yesterday, 11:22 PM
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Also, holy shit Jose Altuve is good.
  #292  
Old Yesterday, 11:25 PM
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Holy Shit! 2 run homer.
Indeed.

Amazing how much your emotions can change over 10 minutes in this game.

Great series Yankees.
  #293  
Old Yesterday, 11:29 PM
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I know it is instinct to get out of the way of the ball, but I wish Gardner has the presence of mind to be hit by that early bad pitch.
I wonder if Alvarez doesn't get pulled if he takes that HBP, instead of getting out of the way? Biggio would've.

OTOH, another young Astro really came through at a time the team needed some grit. The Yankees are not an easy team to pitch to, and Jose Urquidy did great work in limiting them until the rest of the pen could take over. Looking forward to seeing more of his work later in the WS, and for the next couple of years here.
  #294  
Old Today, 12:21 AM
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Holy shit, the Astros are in the World Series. Again.
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