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Old 12-15-2019, 09:06 AM
RTFirefly is offline
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Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
Posts: 40,564

Why do people think Biden's the candidate who can win in the Midwest?


Per 538, here are Biden's current primary polling averages in Midwestern states and Pennsylvania:

PA: 28.0%
OH: 28.4%
MI: 29.1%
WI: 23.1%
IA: 19.7%

Yeah I know, this is the primary, that's the general. But still: if he appeals to the midwestern WWC in particular, shouldn't that boost him somewhat in the primaries as well? After all, you'd think (a) some of those WWC types are already Dems or Dem-leaning independents, and their support would show up here; and (b) to the extent that the Obama/Trump voters were WWC and are reachable by Biden, some of them would be leaning Dem now and supporting Biden in the primaries.

But there's nothing in these numbers to suggest that Biden has noticeably more appeal in this part of the country than he does generally.
 

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