Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #3301  
Old 01-26-2020, 04:19 PM
asahi's Avatar
asahi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 11,991
Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
It's like he's playing moneyball while everyone else is playing by gut instinct and tradition. I read somewhere (sorry, no cite) that the Bloomberg campaign has a set of messages that they believe will move 10-15% of the population that voted for Trump in 2016. Those kind of precise numbers make me believe they've actually run a good deal of focus groups on this already.
We can see some of that in play right now. I don't know if the ads are on where you live, but where I live Bloomberg's attacking Biden with healthcare -- repeatedly. Very simple messages, direct and to the point. They don't get into impeachment or how he's not a man of virtue; the ads go right to the kitchen table stuff.
  #3302  
Old 01-26-2020, 04:37 PM
Left Hand of Dorkness's Avatar
Left Hand of Dorkness is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: May 1999
Location: at the right hand of cool
Posts: 42,224
Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
We can see some of that in play right now. I don't know if the ads are on where you live, but where I live Bloomberg's attacking Biden with healthcare -- repeatedly. Very simple messages, direct and to the point. They don't get into impeachment or how he's not a man of virtue; the ads go right to the kitchen table stuff.
Attacking Biden or Trump?
  #3303  
Old 01-26-2020, 04:55 PM
CarnalK's Avatar
CarnalK is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 19,320
I'm sure he meant Trump. Bloomberg is absolutely already running a general election advertising campaign.

NYT: Michael Bloomberg’s Radically Conventional Campaign Against Donald Trump
  #3304  
Old 01-26-2020, 08:30 PM
Bijou Drains is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 10,724
Yang is not going to be the nominee but at least he's started businesses and ran them. Unlike Biden who sucked on the government teat for basically his whole adult life.
  #3305  
Old 01-26-2020, 09:52 PM
CarnalK's Avatar
CarnalK is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 19,320
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
Yang is not going to be the nominee but at least he's started businesses and ran them. Unlike Biden who sucked on the government teat for basically his whole adult life.
Afaik, Yang started one business and got hired on at another startup as a VP. What businesses (plural) has he started?
  #3306  
Old 01-26-2020, 10:03 PM
DrDeth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 43,519
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
Yang is not going to be the nominee but at least he's started businesses and ran them. Unlike Biden who sucked on the government teat for basically his whole adult life.

He was a Lawyer and a Professor, about three years in each.

It's Sanders who has never had a real job.

Not that it matters as we have seen what happens when you put a "businessman" in who has no politcal experience.
  #3307  
Old 01-26-2020, 10:05 PM
Bijou Drains is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 10,724
Yang started one more business than any other major candidate other than Steyer or Bloomberg. And sadly none of those 3 are going to be the nominee. Instead it's likely to be yet another lawyer who is pretty much a lifetime political office holder. Sanders is the same except he's not a lawyer. Pete B is also not a lawyer but he has had jobs outside of government , what a concept!! But he won't be the nominee. The winner will be either a lawyer or Sanders. Also Yang was CEO of a business he did not start, Manhattan Prep

Problem with Trump is not that he had no political experience. The problem is he has multiple major mental illnesses . Such as being a pathological liar for starters.

Last edited by Bijou Drains; 01-26-2020 at 10:07 PM.
  #3308  
Old 01-26-2020, 10:21 PM
Left Hand of Dorkness's Avatar
Left Hand of Dorkness is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: May 1999
Location: at the right hand of cool
Posts: 42,224
The idea that a government job isn't a real job will be a surprise to teachers, police officers, university registrars, and all kinds of other people.

Work as an elected official is 100% a real job and should be treated as such.

Last edited by Left Hand of Dorkness; 01-26-2020 at 10:22 PM.
  #3309  
Old 01-26-2020, 10:28 PM
Bijou Drains is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 10,724
to be clear, politician is OK job but not for all of your life like Biden.

It sounds odd but when John Glenn first ran for senate his Dem opponent tried to say he did not have a real job. Glenn had a great comeback:

Metzenbaum contrasted his strong business background with Glenn's military and astronaut credentials, saying his opponent had "never worked for a living." Glenn's reply came to be known as the "Gold Star Mothers" speech. He told Metzenbaum to go to a veterans' hospital and "look those men with mangled bodies in the eyes and tell them they didn't hold a job. You go with me to any Gold Star mother and you look her in the eye and tell her that her son did not hold a job". Many felt the "Gold Star Mothers" speech won the primary for Glenn, which he won by 54% to 46%.[
  #3310  
Old 01-26-2020, 10:31 PM
Ann Hedonia's Avatar
Ann Hedonia is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 3,785
Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
We can see some of that in play right now. I don't know if the ads are on where you live, but where I live Bloomberg's attacking Biden with healthcare -- repeatedly. Very simple messages, direct and to the point. They don't get into impeachment or how he's not a man of virtue; the ads go right to the kitchen table stuff.
He’s got multiple advertisements and he’s being very strategic. Last week, he switched the healthcare ad out for the Impeach Trump ad ( the one that premiered on Fox and Friends) in states with vulnerable senators. He was also running it in the national slots on the cable news channels -so Trump keeps seeing it, I presume. But I believe he may have kept the Healthcare ad on in markets without vulnerable senators.

But the one thing all his ads have in common is that he is taking on Trump, not the other Democratic candidates.
  #3311  
Old 01-26-2020, 10:49 PM
eschereal's Avatar
eschereal is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Frogstar World B
Posts: 17,003
Des Moines Register comes out for a candidate. Of course, that is the big city paper, probably more to the left than half of Iowa.
  #3312  
Old 01-26-2020, 10:58 PM
Bijou Drains is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 10,724
Warren reminds me of my school teachers, older and boring. Kids with lower grades got the young hotter teachers. One of them was called luscious Lynn.
  #3313  
Old 01-26-2020, 11:05 PM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 23,331
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschereal View Post
Des Moines Register comes out for a candidate. Of course, that is the big city paper, probably more to the left than half of Iowa.
Nice endorsement for Warren and one that goes on to also note the strong positives of other options. It says they believe is what is especially right about her.

Not sure how much power newspaper endorsements have nowadays but it’s a good one.
  #3314  
Old 01-26-2020, 11:24 PM
jaycat is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,635
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
Yang started one more business than any other major candidate other than Steyer or Bloomberg.
Yeah, I had a lemonade stand when I was a kid. And a paper route too. Vote for me.
  #3315  
Old 01-26-2020, 11:33 PM
Ann Hedonia's Avatar
Ann Hedonia is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 3,785
Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
It's like he's playing moneyball while everyone else is playing by gut instinct and tradition. I read somewhere (sorry, no cite) that the Bloomberg campaign has a set of messages that they believe will move 10-15% of the population that voted for Trump in 2016. Those kind of precise numbers make me believe they've actually run a good deal of focus groups on this already.
I can’t find that cite either but that sounds about right, considering Bloomberg. And I loved your Moneyball reference so I googled Bloomberg Moneyball.

Turns out he is one of the founders of an actual organization called Moneyball For Government and I suspect he funded it as the other founders appear to be policy experts, not philanthropists. They also have an associated organization called Results for America. Maybe you knew this but I didn’t.

https://moneyballforgov.com/moneyball-principles/

They work with governments at all levels to encourage them to make decisions on based on evidence and data. While I’m not exactly sure how they do that (the website is heavy on rhetoric and big names and light on detail), this means they probably have lots of analytical resources in place already that can be readily adapted to campaign analysis.

Last edited by Ann Hedonia; 01-26-2020 at 11:35 PM.
  #3316  
Old 01-27-2020, 12:31 AM
eschereal's Avatar
eschereal is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Frogstar World B
Posts: 17,003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
to be clear, politician is OK job but not for all of your life like Biden.
I am not sure I entirely agree with that. There might be a valid case for establishing some sort of non-hereditary caste-like protocol by which individuals who show a particular aptitude for careers in government and/or leadership from an early age. Persons who can be taught the subtleties of managing a realm or its aspects, so that we could have truly effective and balanced governance, rather than seat of the pants stabbing at maybe-this-will-make-things-better.

The concept would obviously be somewhat fraught, but then, so is the status quo. And, of course, allowing the governing caste to remain significantly isolated from regular living would be a bad idea – because we have already seen how that works out, right here.

Biden is a career politician. Individual-ONE is almost the exact opposite. Given a choice between the two, I suspect my choice would not be at all difficult.
  #3317  
Old 01-27-2020, 01:16 AM
Happy Lendervedder's Avatar
Happy Lendervedder is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Michigan
Posts: 15,530
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ann Hedonia View Post
I can’t find that cite either but that sounds about right, considering Bloomberg. And I loved your Moneyball reference so I googled Bloomberg Moneyball.

Turns out he is one of the founders of an actual organization called Moneyball For Government and I suspect he funded it as the other founders appear to be policy experts, not philanthropists. They also have an associated organization called Results for America. Maybe you knew this but I didn’t.

https://moneyballforgov.com/moneyball-principles/
I had no idea that this was an actual thing! But this is why I'm liking Mike more and more. And I say this as a dyed-in-the-wool pinko lefty who would give anything to have Warren in the Oval Office. He's approaching this with precision and actual data that I'm not necessarily seeing with other candidates. He doesn't react, he's just carrying out a plan with laser-like focus. His message is connecting with guys like my Uncle G and Cousin D (two Detroit union guys, one who sat out 2016, the other who voted Trump, both voted Obama in '08 & '12).

Plus, I've said it before but I'm gonna say it again: If he's willing and able to spend upwards of 2 billion dollars of his own money to win the White House, that means we've got upwards of a billion dollars among us that would've otherwise gone to the presidential campaign, which we can now donate to Senate and House races.

Also I found the story I mentioned earlier that the Bloomberg campaign "insists that it has pinpointed precisely which messages will move '10 to 15 percent of the people who voted for [Trump] in 2016.' " He's not fucking around with nonsense issue fights with the other Dems, he's taking it right to Trump with messaging that has been tested and seems to be working.
  #3318  
Old 01-27-2020, 01:21 AM
DrDeth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 43,519
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
to be clear, politician is OK job but not for all of your life like Biden.
...
I already disproved that, and I noted sanders is 100% all government.

It's bad form to come here and help out the Kremlin, Trump and GOP by spreading crap that was just disproved 3 posts back.

Klobuchar has been a lawyer and Official.
  #3319  
Old 01-27-2020, 06:58 AM
Bijou Drains is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 10,724
Help out the Kremlin? LMAO Most likely I will tightly hold my nose and vote for Biden or some other person who won't beat Trump. Or I may vote Green party
  #3320  
Old 01-27-2020, 01:10 PM
DrDeth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 43,519
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
Help out the Kremlin? LMAO Most likely I will tightly hold my nose and vote for Biden or some other person who won't beat Trump. Or I may vote Green party

You are spreading base canards about a Dem candidate. That helps the Kremlin, the GOP and Trump.


And voting Green is what made trump president.
  #3321  
Old 01-27-2020, 05:35 PM
eschereal's Avatar
eschereal is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Frogstar World B
Posts: 17,003
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
And voting Green is what made trump president.
Silly bullshit.
  #3322  
Old 01-27-2020, 07:48 PM
DrDeth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 43,519
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschereal View Post
Silly bullshit.
It's true, that number of independents would have made Hillary win.
  #3323  
Old 01-27-2020, 08:01 PM
eschereal's Avatar
eschereal is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Frogstar World B
Posts: 17,003
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
It's true, that number of independents would have made Hillary win.
Yes, but if you factor the independents in the key swing states, you have to balance the Greens with the Glibertarians, the lion's share of which would belong to the marionette. The Glibertarian vote totals were considerably higher than the Green totals, especially in the swing states. So screw that little bit of idiotic fapistry. If people want to vote Green, they will vote Green, nothing is going to change that. Blaming them for this mess is not any less stupid than voting Green.

Last edited by eschereal; 01-27-2020 at 08:03 PM.
  #3324  
Old 01-27-2020, 08:14 PM
DrDeth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 43,519
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschereal View Post
Yes, but if you factor the independents in the key swing states, you have to balance the Greens with the Glibertarians, the lion's share of which would belong to the marionette. The Glibertarian vote totals were considerably higher than the Green totals, especially in the swing states. So screw that little bit of idiotic fapistry. If people want to vote Green, they will vote Green, nothing is going to change that. Blaming them for this mess is not any less stupid than voting Green.


https://www.rollcall.com/news/congre...mean-for-trump
  #3325  
Old 01-27-2020, 08:34 PM
asahi's Avatar
asahi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 11,991
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ann Hedonia View Post
I can’t find that cite either but that sounds about right, considering Bloomberg. And I loved your Moneyball reference so I googled Bloomberg Moneyball.

Turns out he is one of the founders of an actual organization called Moneyball For Government and I suspect he funded it as the other founders appear to be policy experts, not philanthropists. They also have an associated organization called Results for America. Maybe you knew this but I didn’t.

https://moneyballforgov.com/moneyball-principles/

They work with governments at all levels to encourage them to make decisions on based on evidence and data. While I’m not exactly sure how they do that (the website is heavy on rhetoric and big names and light on detail), this means they probably have lots of analytical resources in place already that can be readily adapted to campaign analysis.
IIRC, Bloomberg actually made his millions -- check that, BILLIONS -- not with his network but with developing analytical software that basically allowed traders and brokers to get really good, accurate information fast. The network came later. Point being, he was doing 'money ball' before Bill James and Billy Beane.

Last edited by asahi; 01-27-2020 at 08:34 PM.
  #3326  
Old 01-27-2020, 09:05 PM
eschereal's Avatar
eschereal is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Frogstar World B
Posts: 17,003
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
Just more vacuous blather.

Michigan:
margin - 10,704
Green - 51,463
Libertarian - 172,136

Pennsylvania:
margin - 44,292
Green - 49,941
Libertarian - 146,715

Wisconsin:
margin - 22,748
Green - 31,072
Libertarian - 106,672

In no state did the Green vote even come close to the Glibertarian vote, in some cases dwarfed by a factor of more than 4. A large fraction of those voters will simply stay home rather than vote for the D or the R. The Glibertarian vote would go mostly to the R side, probably by 65%-35%. In all three of those close states, distributing those votes as one would typically expect them to go would end up making the marionette's margin even more than it actually was.

So stop blaming the Green vote for Hillary's defeat. It was all her fault. If a person wants to vote 3rd party, that is what they will do. If the major party choices suck donkey balls, that is not someone else's fault.
  #3327  
Old 01-27-2020, 09:50 PM
Bijou Drains is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 10,724
pretty sure both the greens and libertarians have never won a race for house, senate, governor, president and VP. They have won local races. Libertarians have been around much longer . Greens have won races in Europe for their parliaments.

BTW finally a person is on TV more than Mike Bloomberg. Kobe, but that will only be for a few days
  #3328  
Old 01-29-2020, 11:19 AM
Bijou Drains is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 10,724
Bloomberg was on Fallon last night , he did a good job. He's been to 56 cities in 24 states since he joined the race.
  #3329  
Old 01-29-2020, 11:25 AM
Boycott is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 451
New poll in Florida of 2500 voters show Biden still comfortably ahead (41%) but number two with 17% is ... Bloomberg. Everyone else below double digits.

Bloomberg is not competing in the four early states so is focusing big on Super Tuesday. Biden will win South Carolina and at this stage probably Nevada, but if Biden falters badly in Iowa and New Hampshire (i.e. 4th place) it will be fascinating to see how his electability nunbers fare once Bloomberg comes into play on Super Tuesday.
  #3330  
Old 01-29-2020, 11:36 AM
JohnT's Avatar
JohnT is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Antonio, TX
Posts: 24,265
https://www.texaslyceum.org/assets/d...%20Summary.pdf

In Texas:

Trump vs. Biden: 51%-46%
Trump vs. Sanders: 50%-47%
Trump vs. Warren: 52%-44%

Remove Trump?

Yes: 44%
No: 45%

(Note: This poll was conducted prior to the Senate trial)

How is the Pres doing:

Approve: 47%
... Very Good (27%)
... Somewhat Good (20%)
Disapprove: 52%
... Very Poor (36%)
... Somewhat Poor (16%)

By Race (approve/disapprove):

Anglo: 62/38
Hispanic: 36/61
African-American: 21/76

Later in the poll, you'll see that people are pretty sanguine about the state of things here in Texas, but that is not translating to overall support of Donald Trump.
  #3331  
Old 01-29-2020, 11:48 AM
Jonathan Chance is offline
Domo Arigato Mister Moderato
Moderator
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: On the run with Kilroy
Posts: 23,396
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
Warren reminds me of my school teachers, older and boring. Kids with lower grades got the young hotter teachers. One of them was called luscious Lynn.
That’s enough. Warning issued, Bijou Drains. Don’t be a jerk.

You are banned from this thread for one month. Come back when you’re prepared to be less juvenile.
  #3332  
Old 01-29-2020, 04:27 PM
Thing Fish is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago (NL)
Posts: 3,902
Ugh. Talked to my dad last night. Sort of like how Happy uses his union cousins, I think of my parents as bellwethers of the older white middle class liberal cohort. They were enthusiastic for Bernie in '16, will probably vote for him again this year but think all our candidates have potential big electability problems ( guess at some time in the last four years they noticed that Bernie is old, go figure.

I was horrified to discover that he has completely bought into the Trumpy narrative that Biden was up to "something corrupt" in Ukraine and that that will come back to bite him/us if he is the nominee. If these attacks are actually getting traction with reasonably intelligent, Trump-despising people who don't watch Fox, that's a problem.
  #3333  
Old 01-29-2020, 05:08 PM
ISiddiqui is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Decatur, Georgia, USA
Posts: 6,964
I have found that among some Bernie fans on the internet, they are buying into the Biden is corrupt and Ukraine smells bad narrative to help them out in the primaries. Not having any sense of how that much blow up in the end.
  #3334  
Old 01-29-2020, 05:21 PM
Thing Fish is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago (NL)
Posts: 3,902
Well, I'm not sure where Dad is getting this, but it's sure not on the internet. The man has never so much as sent an e-mail.
  #3335  
Old 01-30-2020, 02:58 PM
Happy Lendervedder's Avatar
Happy Lendervedder is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Michigan
Posts: 15,530
The Bloomberg campaign has released his $10 million Super Bowl ad. It's a 60-second piece on gun control. https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/polit...rol/index.html

Personally, I'd have focused on the issue of income inequality. I'm just thinking about my Uncle G and Cousin D sitting around with the guys, drinking beer and watching the big game, they don't necessarily want to be lectured about guns or hear about gun violence. A message about lifting everyone up (income wise) would be a better fit, imo.

But he's got the data, so maybe perhaps he knows what he's doing.
  #3336  
Old 01-30-2020, 07:41 PM
DrDeth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 43,519
Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
The Bloomberg campaign has released his $10 million Super Bowl ad. It's a 60-second piece on gun control. https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/polit...rol/index.html

Personally, I'd have focused on the issue of income inequality. I'm just thinking about my Uncle G and Cousin D sitting around with the guys, drinking beer and watching the big game, they don't necessarily want to be lectured about guns or hear about gun violence. A message about lifting everyone up (income wise) would be a better fit, imo.

But he's got the data, so maybe perhaps he knows what he's doing.
Yeah, and George Kemp is hardly the poster child here to use. He was 20yo, challenged a apparent gang member to a fight, and they gunned him down instead. It appears with a handgun. Very likely the un-identified shooter couldnt own a gun legally anyway, so I dont see any Constitutional gun control that would have prevented that shooting.
  #3337  
Old 01-30-2020, 09:39 PM
Velocity is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 16,563
Bloomberg has now overtaken Warren:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-JMHe_0YhI88wM
  #3338  
Old 01-31-2020, 05:45 AM
septimus's Avatar
septimus is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 20,812
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschereal View Post
Just more vacuous blather.
... In no state did the Green vote even come close to the Glibertarian vote ...

So stop blaming the Green vote for Hillary's defeat. It was all her fault. If a person wants to vote 3rd party, that is what they will do. If the major party choices suck donkey balls, that is not someone else's fault.
Vacuous syllogism. All else equal Greeners could have elected Hillary. Like it or not, that is simple fact.

Comparing Rs who voted Lib with Ds who voted Green misses the following nuance:
R's voted Lib because Trump and his ilk are liars.
D's voted Green because of lies by Trump and his ilk.

And, nitpick: While Johnson outpolled Stein in every state, Stein did come close in Hawaii and D.C.
  #3339  
Old 01-31-2020, 11:52 AM
asahi's Avatar
asahi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 11,991
Quote:
Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
Bloomberg has now overtaken Warren:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-JMHe_0YhI88wM
I don't know if he's actually overtaken her just yet in terms of aggregate polling, but there's no question he's got the momentum. It's looking more and more like this might end up being a two-candidate race, and not between Bernie and Biden, but between Bernie and Mike, which seems crazy when you consider how he skipped the race.

Assuming the trends hold up, it's exactly the right match-up. I, like many, was initially attracted to Biden because of Obama and Clinton-era nostalgia. The reality, though, is that as much as many of us have pined for a return to a bygone era of bipartisanship and working together to get things done, that era is gone. And maybe it's for the better. If the Republicans aren't going to act in good faith - as they have repeatedly demonstrated - then why pretend that this is evenly remotely possible?

What people like about both Bernie Sanders and Michael Bloomberg is that they're unapologetic about their positions, and it's evident that, right or wrong, they intend to use their bully pulpit to push their agenda. They're not campaigning on the ability to cut deals -- that's what moderate senators do. When you look at it that way, it's not surprising that people are beginning to sour on Biden.

What I like about Bloomberg is that he, more than anyone else, seems to know how to use the media machine to get people's attention. He knows how to harass and frustrate the Republicans.
  #3340  
Old 01-31-2020, 12:17 PM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 23,331
Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
... it's not surprising that people are beginning to sour on Biden. ...
Except that they haven't.

Biden remains remarkably flat in his support, neither gaining or losing significantly. His 538 tracker has pretty much been between 25 to 28 since mid-July and is now 26.5. His national numbers are as stable as Trump's disapproval rating!

The change has been Warren's relative collapse and Sander's rise back up. And Bloomberg making his move positioning for Super Tuesday and beyond. But Bloomberg has not poached much from Biden's numbers. If anything he seems to have taken Buttigieg supporters over.

Interesting that what sells is the perception of authenticity. Warren had it and lost it with her MfA fumbling. Sanders does not vary. Biden keeps it partly because of his flubs - no polished product of focus groups he. And Bloomberg knows the Moneyball but he promotes what he believes consistently.
  #3341  
Old 01-31-2020, 02:00 PM
RTFirefly is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
Posts: 40,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
it's not surprising that people are beginning to sour on Biden.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Except that they haven't.

Biden remains remarkably flat in his support, neither gaining or losing significantly. His 538 tracker has pretty much been between 25 to 28 since mid-July and is now 26.5. His national numbers are as stable as Trump's disapproval rating!
This. When I was doing my polling average last fall, he was at 27% +/- 1%, week after week after week after bloomin' week. Like the speedometer of a car on cruise control.

I've stopped doing my average, but like you say, 538 says nothing's changed there.
  #3342  
Old 01-31-2020, 02:14 PM
Happy Lendervedder's Avatar
Happy Lendervedder is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Michigan
Posts: 15,530
Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
The Bloomberg campaign has released his $10 million Super Bowl ad. It's a 60-second piece on gun control. https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/polit...rol/index.html

Personally, I'd have focused on the issue of income inequality. I'm just thinking about my Uncle G and Cousin D sitting around with the guys, drinking beer and watching the big game, they don't necessarily want to be lectured about guns or hear about gun violence. A message about lifting everyone up (income wise) would be a better fit, imo.

But he's got the data, so maybe perhaps he knows what he's doing.
I've been thinking about this ad more, and I suspect he knows what he's doing. He can't win the nomination without black support, and this commercial will appeal to a lot of those voters. (Also suburban moms.) He needs to really start poaching AA voters from Biden if he wants to do well in Super Tuesday and the weeks following. This ad will help with that.

Sure, it won't necessarily resonate with my Uncle G and Cousin D, but that can be more of a conversation for the general. If Bloomberg can't start poaching support from Biden, he won't even get to the general.
  #3343  
Old 01-31-2020, 02:57 PM
Boycott is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 451
Bloomberg will be in the next debate. There are no longer donor thresholds to meet. He already has passed the polling threshold.
  #3344  
Old 01-31-2020, 03:01 PM
Boycott is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 451
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Except that they haven't.

Biden remains remarkably flat in his support, neither gaining or losing significantly. His 538 tracker has pretty much been between 25 to 28 since mid-July and is now 26.5. His national numbers are as stable as Trump's disapproval rating!

The change has been Warren's relative collapse and Sander's rise back up. And Bloomberg making his move positioning for Super Tuesday and beyond. But Bloomberg has not poached much from Biden's numbers. If anything he seems to have taken Buttigieg supporters over.

Interesting that what sells is the perception of authenticity. Warren had it and lost it with her MfA fumbling. Sanders does not vary. Biden keeps it partly because of his flubs - no polished product of focus groups he. And Bloomberg knows the Moneyball but he promotes what he believes consistently.
Regarding MFA, the way I see it is Warren took much more heat about it in five months from fellow Democrats than Sanders did in the five years he has been running for president. Hillary saw him as an annoying fly she just had to wave away and did (no, it was not rigged), but the others don't prod him. They did to Warren.
  #3345  
Old 01-31-2020, 03:16 PM
Ann Hedonia's Avatar
Ann Hedonia is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 3,785
Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
I've been thinking about this ad more, and I suspect he knows what he's doing. He can't win the nomination without black support, and this commercial will appeal to a lot of those voters. (Also suburban moms.) He needs to really start poaching AA voters from Biden if he wants to do well in Super Tuesday and the weeks following. This ad will help with that.

Sure, it won't necessarily resonate with my Uncle G and Cousin D, but that can be more of a conversation for the general. If Bloomberg can't start poaching support from Biden, he won't even get to the general.
I have to agree. It’s not going to sit well with my brother D and nephew A either, but it’s going to get their attention.

And I really like it that he’s using the Kemp case in these ads and I hope it may reach black voters. I don’t want to get too deep into gun control as an issue in this thread, but it’s always bugged the hell out of me that the debate always seems to be about white rural militias and suburban school shootings. It’s an issue that has an outsized impact on African-Americans but I think they’ve been disenfranchised from the debate.

Last edited by Ann Hedonia; 01-31-2020 at 03:17 PM.
  #3346  
Old 01-31-2020, 05:17 PM
ITR champion is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Indiana
Posts: 10,455
Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
I've been thinking about this ad more, and I suspect he knows what he's doing. He can't win the nomination without black support, and this commercial will appeal to a lot of those voters. (Also suburban moms.) He needs to really start poaching AA voters from Biden if he wants to do well in Super Tuesday and the weeks following. This ad will help with that.
Maybe. But one of the clearest lessons of this absurdly long primary campaign is that swaying Black voters is difficult. The polls showed a huge block of them supporting Biden before he even officially jumped in and they haven't changed since then. Literally every other candidate has tried hard to pander to them with little or no success.
  #3347  
Old 01-31-2020, 05:24 PM
Velocity is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 16,563
Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
I don't know if he's actually overtaken her just yet in terms of aggregate polling, but there's no question he's got the momentum. It's looking more and more like this might end up being a two-candidate race, and not between Bernie and Biden, but between Bernie and Mike, which seems crazy when you consider how he skipped the race.

Assuming the trends hold up, it's exactly the right match-up. I, like many, was initially attracted to Biden because of Obama and Clinton-era nostalgia. The reality, though, is that as much as many of us have pined for a return to a bygone era of bipartisanship and working together to get things done, that era is gone. And maybe it's for the better. If the Republicans aren't going to act in good faith - as they have repeatedly demonstrated - then why pretend that this is evenly remotely possible?

What people like about both Bernie Sanders and Michael Bloomberg is that they're unapologetic about their positions, and it's evident that, right or wrong, they intend to use their bully pulpit to push their agenda. They're not campaigning on the ability to cut deals -- that's what moderate senators do. When you look at it that way, it's not surprising that people are beginning to sour on Biden.

What I like about Bloomberg is that he, more than anyone else, seems to know how to use the media machine to get people's attention. He knows how to harass and frustrate the Republicans.


I think it also reflects growing public distaste for Warren. Whether it's her debt-forgiveness program (which makes people who did suffer and scrimp and save to pay off their debt feel cheated hollow,) or her snarky clap-backs to people, or her refusal to address tough facts and numbers of her MfA, or her insinuation that sexism must be a reason for people not liking her, people are more and more thinking "This isn't someone I want."
  #3348  
Old 01-31-2020, 05:43 PM
jsc1953 is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Bay Area, California
Posts: 10,931
The NY Times (online) had an interactive feature yesterday, that asked you 10 Y/N questions and determined your ideal candidate based on those answers.

Some of them were tough: how do I feel about free college? Is it important that the president be able to work with Republicans?

But it gave me a split decision: my ideal candidate is either Steyer or Warren.

Steyer? Seriously? I haven't given him a moment's thought.

Last edited by jsc1953; 01-31-2020 at 05:44 PM.
  #3349  
Old 01-31-2020, 05:55 PM
Happy Lendervedder's Avatar
Happy Lendervedder is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Michigan
Posts: 15,530
Quote:
Originally Posted by ITR champion View Post
Maybe. But one of the clearest lessons of this absurdly long primary campaign is that swaying Black voters is difficult. The polls showed a huge block of them supporting Biden before he even officially jumped in and they haven't changed since then. Literally every other candidate has tried hard to pander to them with little or no success.
That's true, but what if Biden tanks once the voting starts? Bloomberg is setting himself up as the next candidate for African American voters. Bloomberg's candidacy was launched on the notion that Biden was underperforming and may not make it to the general. His instincts may be paying off.
  #3350  
Old 01-31-2020, 06:18 PM
Boycott is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 451
Quote:
Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
I think it also reflects growing public distaste for Warren. Whether it's her debt-forgiveness program (which makes people who did suffer and scrimp and save to pay off their debt feel cheated hollow,) or her snarky clap-backs to people, or her refusal to address tough facts and numbers of her MfA, or her insinuation that sexism must be a reason for people not liking her, people are more and more thinking "This isn't someone I want."
Apart from gender what makes that different from Sanders?

Sanders is cranky when challenged. He shouts over people, yells canned lines ... "I WROTE THE DAMN BILL" "AND I'M WHITE" "I SAID BLACK FIFTY TIMES".

Warren's and Sanders are on the same wing. She said the 2016 primary was rigged and now says "I'm with Bernie" on the debate stage.

What hurts her chances that doesn't get to him? To me it's that she takes far more heat and Sanders might get away with it now but if he gets the nomination it'll all come hurtling at him. Warren is the one pressed for the math by interviewers, moderators and competitors among the democrats. Sanders went on CBS this week and couldn't answer despite having five years of running for president.

Quote:

CBS Evening News anchor Norah O’Donnell confronted Independent Vermont Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders over the cost of his ambitious agenda, and was astonished when Sanders told her “nobody knows” what his programs will cost.

On Friday night’s edition of the CBS Evening News, O’Donnell played portions of a recorded interview, including one section in which she introduced Sanders as a “self-proclaimed Socialist,” to which Sanders corrected “Democratic, put in there please!”


“Your agenda has promised free healthcare for everybody, free college tuition, and to pay off people’s college loans,” O’Donnell said, and asked “The price tag for that is estimated to be $60 trillion dollars over 10 years, correct?”

“Well look, we have political opponents who come up…” Sanders began.

“You don’t know how much your plan costs?” O’Donnell interrupted.

“You don’t know, nobody knows, this is impossible,” Sanders said, as O’Donnell cut him off again.

“You’re going to propose a plan to the American people and you’re not going to tell them how much it costs?” O’Donnell said.

“Of course I will,” Sanders said, then added “You know exactly what healthcare costs will be, one minute, in the next 10 years if we do nothing. It will be a lot more expensive than a Medicare for All single-payer system.”
https://www.mediaite.com/news/norah-...ur-plan-costs/

What kind of answer is you don't know, nobody knows, it's impossible !
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:40 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2019 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017