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  #351  
Old 02-08-2019, 11:16 AM
Damuri Ajashi Damuri Ajashi is offline
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Originally Posted by RickJay View Post
I see no evidence of that. None at all. Winning brings financial rewards and glory for the people running the team. There is just as much of an incentive as ever, maybe more so.
Franchise value and income is only very loosely correlated with winning. a bigger correlation IMHO is size of the market.

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What, some free agents aren't making as much as they used to? Sorry,m thyat has nothing to do with teams wanting to win. It's because free agents don't help you win enough. Full stop. Most huge contract hitters suck. That's just a fact; if you give a hitter a huge contract it will usually be a total flop.
I don't know about that. Baseball contracts are always a crap shoot for the teams. Some work out wonderfully and others do not. The longer the contract, the less predictable the outcome. I don't know that there has been a good statistical study of how these contracts play outt

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Of last year's top 25 highest paid hitters, how many do you think were worth it? I'd guess maybe five or six. Mike Trout, J.D. Martinez and Freddie Freeman had MVP type stats, and I will give you Giancarlo Stanton and Joey Votto, who were pretty good, and arguably Bryce Harper, who hit well but fielded like he was blind. Robbie Cano would have had a good year if he wasn't suspended. Most were actually bad players, and some were awful; Yoenis Cespedes, Miguel Cabrera, Isan Desmond, Chris Davis, Jason Heyward, Josh Donaldson, Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Eric Hosmer, and more - old, injured, or they just sucked. The average wins above replacement by a top 25 paid hitter, if that's a number you care about, was 2.0. That is roughly as good as Kevin Pillar, who you can have for a fraction of that kind of money. 2018 was, by the way, not at all unusual. The numbers are pretty much the same for 2017, 2016, and 2015.
I think WAR is a valid measurement but one thing I think war doesn't really account for all the effect on franchise value. Having stars improves merchanidising and, ticket sales and franchise value. Bryce Harper is arguably worth a lot more to the Washington Nationals than his WAR would imply.

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What, the Rays won't spend a lot of money? Oh, that must be why they sucked... no, wait, they don't suck at all, do they? They won 90 games and look damn good.
They also have the lowest franchise value in MLB.

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Team want to win just as much as ever, they just know better how to spend their money. Develop them yourself like Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve. Let some other idiot pick up the $250 million contract after their prime. Big deals to all but the inner circle Hall of Famers are for chumps.
The fact that you think that the first year of free agency frequently occurs after their "prime" is one of the things that I think is broken about free agency. The mandatory service period is too long. You can have a player on his 3rd year on the all star team and still be in his mandatory service period.

Mike Trout, arguably the best player in the league for years isn't a free agent until 2020.

Mookie Betts, a hands down all star and best war in MLB isn't a free agent until 2021.

The period of indentured servitude is too long. Either pay them significantly more in the minors and the mandatory service period or pay them during the free agency. But right now the baseball players go through a very long apprenticeship period for a diminishing pay off at the end of the process.

analytics was supposed to shift some of the salary from stars to the bench but what it ended up doing was shifting money from the stars to the owner's pockets.
  #352  
Old 02-08-2019, 11:27 AM
Damuri Ajashi Damuri Ajashi is offline
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There is, and it's the same for most any sport.

It's called "loss of fan interest", and it translates into lower attendance, smaller audiences for broadcasts and loss of ancillary sales for team apparel and such.
Revenue sharing offsets much of this. But of course there is always some incentive to win. I said there isn't ENOUGH incentive.

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"you can always sell the team for more money" may not work out too well eventually, when prospective owners are less willing to fork over billions for the privilege of sitting in the owner's box and having fans curse them for not opening their wallets to the max.
Right now that is a hypothetical. The market for MLB teams is significant. The list of investors that would like to field an expansion team is pretty long.

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If the "problem" with free agency is that players have to settle for gigantic salaries over a shorter term instead of stratospherically enormous ones that'll pay them $35 million annually when they're 40 and batting .203, then I can't be bothered to worry about it too much.

It's ironic that with players yelping about lack of big free agent deals, Derek Jeter who co-owns the Marlins) not only has been dedicated to shedding stars to make the team more financially viable, he's due to make millions in bonuses if the team becomes profitable.

So much for solidarity with his fellow (former) wage slaves.
The free agency flaw is not necessarily that the free agency contracts aren't big enough. It might also be that it takes to long to get to free agency. Baseball has an extraordinarily long apprenticeship period and the tradeoff was that there would be a signficiant payoff during free agency. if that payoff is no longer going to be there, then the apprenticeship period should be reduced.
  #353  
Old 02-09-2019, 12:28 AM
Dale Sams Dale Sams is offline
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Mookie Betts, a hands down all star and best war in MLB isn't a free agent until 2021.
Pretty sure its 2020 for Mookie*. Mookie also made 10.4 mill last year and is making 20 mill this year. Next year he'll probably make 25 mill.

And a note on merchandising. All domestic sales are split evenly between the 30 teams.

*I know baseball ref says 2021...but he played his first full time year in 2015, so I dont see how 2021 can be accurate....ok i see. They're kind of saying the 2021 baseball season. He in fact becomes a free agent at the end of the 2020 baseball season barring a new contract.
  #354  
Old 02-10-2019, 12:15 AM
Damuri Ajashi Damuri Ajashi is offline
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Originally Posted by Dale Sams View Post
Pretty sure its 2020 for Mookie*. Mookie also made 10.4 mill last year and is making 20 mill this year. Next year he'll probably make 25 mill.
Those are basically one year contracts

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And a note on merchandising. All domestic sales are split evenly between the 30 teams.
I did not know this

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*I know baseball ref says 2021...but he played his first full time year in 2015, so I dont see how 2021 can be accurate....ok i see. They're kind of saying the 2021 baseball season. He in fact becomes a free agent at the end of the 2020 baseball season barring a new contract.
I feel like the red Sox have been lowballing mookie.
  #355  
Old 02-10-2019, 08:06 AM
Dale Sams Dale Sams is offline
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Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi View Post
Those are basically one year contracts



I did not know this



I feel like the red Sox have been lowballing mookie.
Spit take.

That 10 mill Mookie won in arbitration. And the 20 mill he gets this year *he* agreed to without going to arbitration. I'm also pretty sure (certainly could be wrong) that 20mill is the most a fifth year player has ever made. (Non multi-year contract like Trout)

Harper got 13 mill in his fifth year. Machado got 11 mill.

Last edited by Dale Sams; 02-10-2019 at 08:08 AM.
  #356  
Old 02-10-2019, 08:20 AM
RickJay RickJay is offline
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Originally Posted by Dale Sams View Post
Spit take.

That 10 mill Mookie won in arbitration. And the 20 mill he gets this year *he* agreed to without going to arbitration. I'm also pretty sure (certainly could be wrong) that 20mill is the most a fifth year player has ever made. (Non multi-year contract like Trout)
Josh Donaldsn got $23 million.
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  #357  
Old 02-10-2019, 09:49 AM
Dale Sams Dale Sams is offline
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Originally Posted by RickJay View Post
Josh Donaldsn got $23 million.
In his sixth year
  #358  
Old 02-10-2019, 10:54 AM
Jas09 Jas09 is offline
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The Betts example is actually pretty illustrative. On the FA market his projected value for 2019 is likely worth, at a minimum, $40M (and probably more). So even with the highest arb-5 agreement ever he is at least 50% underpaid relative to what he would make as a FA.

His choices are to take that and hope to get a big FA contract in a few years or sign a long-term contract now and lock in below-market compensation for more security (guaranteed multi-year). Either way he will make a ton of money but you can see why if the big FA contract becomes less likely he could feel like he's being squeezed by ownership.
  #359  
Old 02-10-2019, 11:02 AM
RickJay RickJay is offline
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Originally Posted by Dale Sams View Post
In his sixth year
In baseball CBA terms, 2017 was Donaldson's fifth year. He had just 4.1 years of service going into that season so it's treated as Year 5. Betts also has 4.1 years of service time going into next year but it didn't take him as long to accumulate it because he became a regular much quicker and wasn't bouncing between minors and majors.

2017 was the sixth calendar year Donaldson appeared in the big leagues, but calendar years are not relevant. What matters are service years.

Actually, as I looked up the two players, an interesting note - at this point, going into their fifth year, they look superficially similar. Both became exceptional, multi-talented players. Both deservedly won an MVP Award and were high in the voting in other seasons. They have roughly the same career value. What's different is that Betts is just 26 this coming year - Donaldson was 26 when he first reached the majors, remarkably late for an elite player. As a result, Donaldson was already beginning his decline phase when he got his $23 million, while Betts is entering his peak now. (I am not saying Betts will necessarily have seasons even better than 2018, but that's no insult.)

Consequently, the odds are Josh Donaldson's career is basically written. He might have another nice season or two hitting 30 homers as a DH or first baseman but it's likely 90% of his career is in the books. Betts, conversely, is a candidate to be a Hall of Famer someday if he stays healthy.
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Last edited by RickJay; 02-10-2019 at 11:03 AM.
  #360  
Old 02-10-2019, 12:41 PM
Dale Sams Dale Sams is offline
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Originally Posted by RickJay View Post
In baseball CBA terms, 2017 was Donaldson's fifth year. He had just 4.1 years of service going into that season so it's treated as Year 5. Betts also has 4.1 years of service time going into next year but it didn't take him as long to accumulate it because he became a regular much quicker and wasn't bouncing between minors and majors.

2017 was the sixth calendar year Donaldson appeared in the big leagues, but calendar years are not relevant. What matters are service years.

Actually, as I looked up the two players, an interesting note - at this point, going into their fifth year, they look superficially similar. Both became exceptional, multi-talented players. Both deservedly won an MVP Award and were high in the voting in other seasons. They have roughly the same career value. What's different is that Betts is just 26 this coming year - Donaldson was 26 when he first reached the majors, remarkably late for an elite player. As a result, Donaldson was already beginning his decline phase when he got his $23 million, while Betts is entering his peak now. (I am not saying Betts will necessarily have seasons even better than 2018, but that's no insult.)

Consequently, the odds are Josh Donaldson's career is basically written. He might have another nice season or two hitting 30 homers as a DH or first baseman but it's likely 90% of his career is in the books. Betts, conversely, is a candidate to be a Hall of Famer someday if he stays healthy.
At this point I'm just being pedantic, cause if Donaldson is the record holder for salary in terms of service time. Then I'm wrong. And thats fine. But baseball ref says he was paid 17 mill in 2017. But again, I fully admit I'm being pedantic.

And re: Betts and the HOF....He is going in. But I admit to being *slightly* biased when it comes to Mookie. And if the Sox don't sign him for life, I will riot.
  #361  
Old 02-11-2019, 07:19 AM
RickJay RickJay is offline
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Originally Posted by Dale Sams View Post
At this point I'm just being pedantic, cause if Donaldson is the record holder for salary in terms of service time. Then I'm wrong. And thats fine. But baseball ref says he was paid 17 mill in 2017. But again, I fully admit I'm being pedantic.
Oh, you're right. I misread the list.

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And re: Betts and the HOF....He is going in. But I admit to being *slightly* biased when it comes to Mookie. And if the Sox don't sign him for life, I will riot.
I'm not one for hubris and guys have started out great and then gotten hurt or whatever.

Here are what BBRef says are the most similar batters through age 25:

Duke Snider (Hall of Fame)
Grady Sizemore
Del Ennis
David Wright
Manny Ramirez (should be in the HOF)
Carl Yastrzemski (Hall of Fame)
Nick Markakis
Greg Luzinski
Jack Clark
Jim Rice (HOF)

Some of these comparisons are stupid. Greg Luzinski was a huge, strikeout-prone bear of a man with no speed who played defense like he had a grudge against it. (Del Ennis, also a Phillie, was a similar player, though not as extreme.) He wasn't anything like Mookie Betts. The only mildly concerning examples are Sizemore, a similar player who got hurt in his age 26 year, and Markakis, who just didn't stay really good. But neither was remotely as good as Betts, not even close. I can't think of a really good comparison.

But I love Mookie Betts. I despise Boston in every other way but Betts is my favourite ballplayer right now. He's four foot three and weighs sixty pounds and yet he can hit 30 dingers a year. In an age when guys strike out 200 times a year he doesn't strike out a hundred. Five tool player. And they drafted him in the fifth round... every team in baseball, even the one he's on, passed on him over and over and given that he was an excellent MLB player at the age of 21 I just don't understand why.
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  #362  
Old 02-11-2019, 11:15 AM
Barkis is Willin' Barkis is Willin' is offline
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And they drafted him in the fifth round... every team in baseball, even the one he's on, passed on him over and over and given that he was an excellent MLB player at the age of 21 I just don't understand why.
Maybe they thought he would pursue professional bowling over baseball? That's mostly a joke, but Mookie is actually a pro bowler.
  #363  
Old 02-12-2019, 11:12 AM
dalej42 dalej42 is online now
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I’m also a fan of the game show What’s my Line? A very interesting baseball connection on an episode I just watched today, originally aired on September 28, 1952. The mystery guest was Chuck Dressen, manager of the Brooklyn Dodgers. The Dodgers had already clinched the pennant, they were playing the 7th place Boston Braves. This is one of those games that ended in a tie after 12 innings. The home plate umpire actually left after the 10th inning to catch a train! The Braves also has a train to catch, and since it was a meaningless game, it was a tie. It also turned out to be the very last Boston Braves game.
https://youtu.be/iROvYBc1wMU
https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...95209280.shtml

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  #364  
Old 02-12-2019, 11:45 AM
ElvisL1ves ElvisL1ves is offline
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And they drafted him in the fifth round... every team in baseball, even the one he's on, passed on him over and over and given that he was an excellent MLB player at the age of 21 I just don't understand why.
He was drafted when he was 18. Most players aren't yet physically mature then, they haven't faced great competition, and only rarely can you be confident a high school kid will be a great pro when he's older. Teams would mostly rather use high draft picks on college players with much less uncertainty to them.

Mookie was still skinny when he came up as a 2B, and got moved around everywhere until the team told him he was an RF for better or worse. His power came when he muscled up to play the position, at the cost of some of his speed and reflexes.
  #365  
Old 02-13-2019, 07:13 AM
RickJay RickJay is offline
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A great many players have taken to Twitter and other social media to bitch about unsigned free agents.

We're headed for a strike, I suspect.
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  #366  
Old 02-13-2019, 11:20 AM
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Is it really such a big problem? There are a couple of big names like Machado, Harper, Kimbrel and Keuchel, but beyond that it seems like less of a logjam than last year. There are a lot of free agents who are probably finished, like Hanley Ramirez, Chase Headley, Jose Bautista et al.. The rest are mostly 30+ years old, hoping for multi-year deals but probably not getting them, with good reason. How big is the market for Adam Jones? Or Evan Gattis? Just a bunch of 1 WAR guys, at best.
  #367  
Old 02-13-2019, 11:22 AM
Barkis is Willin' Barkis is Willin' is offline
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A great many players have taken to Twitter and other social media to bitch about unsigned free agents.

We're headed for a strike, I suspect.
I've seen some of the complaints from Verlander and others, but what would they strike over? I think Harper, Machado and the hundred or however many other free agents are unsigned would still be in this position even if the luxury tax didn't exist. I really don't think it's "collusion" because I guarantee if a team thought Harper was worth his asking price, they'd pay it.
  #368  
Old Today, 11:42 AM
Jackmannii Jackmannii is offline
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Let's hear it for "Dummy" Hoy, a Cincinnati Reds' great who has now been named a great Ohioan.
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