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  #51  
Old 01-30-2019, 06:13 PM
jsc1953 jsc1953 is online now
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I certainly agree with the consensus: it's confirmation bias. Players remember bitterly every time 3rd Base took a 10 and the dealer didn't bust, but they immediately forget the converse.

Re: the anecdote above...anybody who's playing $300/hand at a $5 table deserves what he gets.

I have known one cheating dealer -- but he was cheating to help the player (a friend), not the house. (The house doesn't need the help ... the rules are in their favor.) It was 30 years ago in a little casino at Lake Tahoe, late at night. Whenever this dealer had a 10 showing and had to peek, if he saw that he had a stiff hand he would tell my friend quietly "I wouldn't hit that if I were you...". Friend tipped well, which was the whole point.
  #52  
Old 01-30-2019, 07:48 PM
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Originally Posted by RickJay View Post
Technically of course that is true; if you are smart enough to count cards,
This was just an offhand comment, but I just want to say that despite the common perception, you don't need to be particularly smart to count cards. All it takes is the ability to mentally add single-digit numbers, and a LOT of practice. But it's a lot of mental work, and at least for me, the slim advantage you gain doesn't justify the effort, either in learning to count or in counting while playing.
  #53  
Old 01-31-2019, 02:48 AM
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Originally Posted by markn+ View Post
This was just an offhand comment, but I just want to say that despite the common perception, you don't need to be particularly smart to count cards. All it takes is the ability to mentally add single-digit numbers, and a LOT of practice. But it's a lot of mental work, and at least for me, the slim advantage you gain doesn't justify the effort, either in learning to count or in counting while playing.
Yes, you don't need to be smart, and you don't need a particularly good memory. You do need concentration and discipline. Discipline, discipline. You may want to treat it as a hard-working job, not a recreation.

You don't need to know mathematics to play blackjack, but you need to believe in mathematics! It's surprising how many people may say something like "Yeah, I read the book, but it gets a few things wrong. Of course you should stand on 12 when Dealer has a Deuce. It would be dumb to bust when he's going to bust himself."

I found it peculiar that the economic system would pay me more to play a trivial game than to do creative work in software or circuit design. I ended up taking the "cut in pay" to have work that was much more fun and creative!
  #54  
Old 01-31-2019, 07:45 AM
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Anyway, more and more casinos are moving to continuous shufflers, putting card counters out of a job. The changeover is going slowly, though, because continuous shufflers are incredibly expensive, and at higher stakes tables apparently players make a fuss.
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  #55  
Old 01-31-2019, 10:00 AM
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Of course you should stand on 12 when Dealer has a Deuce. It would be dumb to bust when he's going to bust himself."
It's fun to watch a friend bust 10 straight times while hitting a 12 when the Dealer has a deuce.
  #56  
Old 01-31-2019, 10:11 AM
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OK, there's not believing the math, and then there's not believing Sesame Street-level map. All you need to know to refute that one is that there are more cards that are not 10 than cards that are 10.
  #57  
Old 01-31-2019, 10:32 AM
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OK, there's not believing the math, and then there's not believing Sesame Street-level map. All you need to know to refute that one is that there are more cards that are not 10 than cards that are 10.
True. But most basic strategy plays are predicated on assuming the next card will be a facecard. Hitting 12 vs 2 seems counter-intuitive, only the math shows that it's not.
  #58  
Old 01-31-2019, 03:22 PM
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Some players have a nickname like "Dangerous Deuce" when Dealer's up-card is a Deuce. The player is much happier (a priori ó before looking at his own cards) to see a Seven as a Dealer's up-card rather than a Deuce. (Seven is even slightly better to see than Trey.)
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  #59  
Old 02-01-2019, 06:09 PM
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Anyway, more and more casinos are moving to continuous shufflers, putting card counters out of a job.
it's still possible to do a little counting with a continuous card shuffler. Basically you can only count the cards in one hand. If you sit at third base at a face up table, you can see a few cards before you play. But the advantage gained is usually very tiny, especially since you have no information when you make your initial bet.

Last edited by markn+; 02-01-2019 at 06:11 PM.
  #60  
Old 02-01-2019, 07:48 PM
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Isnít this at least slightly true? A dealer is more likely to bust when the deck is rich with high cards and less likely when the deck is poor. A person taking cards at random is more likely to take a high card during the instances when the deck is rich, thus, more likely to deprive the dealer of a bust card. The edge is very slight but sill non-zero.


This assumes that a person playing blackjack "wrong" (or unpredictably) is only hitting when he shouldn't (according to basic strategy) leading to more cards dealt out. But somebody playing "wrong" is as likely to stand when they shouldn't as they are to hit when they shouldn't which evens things out.

In fact, no matter how they decide their hits and stands, the people I've observed playing blackjack "wrong" end up taking less cards out of the deck because they are unfamiliar with and/or terrified of splitting which results in more cards being dealt out.
  #61  
Old 02-02-2019, 06:25 PM
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Splitting is only a good idea with paired aces or paired 8s, though, isn't it? It seems surprising that it would be common enough to make a difference in the number of cards dealt.
  #62  
Old 02-02-2019, 07:29 PM
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No, Basic Strategy says to split in a number of cases besides Aces and Eights. You ALWAYS split Aces and Eights regardless of the dealer's card, but there are other cases where you should split depending on the dealer's card. Here's the full chart: https://wizardofodds.com/games/black...ategy/4-decks/
As you can see, the only pairs you never split are 5s (where you should double in most case) and 10s where you should stand.

Last edited by markn+; 02-02-2019 at 07:30 PM.
  #63  
Old 02-03-2019, 10:39 AM
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Yeah. If the dealer has a 6 showing, you want to shovel as much money on the table as you can. Split everything (except 5's and 10's), double on everything (within reason).
  #64  
Old 02-03-2019, 01:25 PM
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BTW, if you ever see someone split 10s when they otherwise seem to be playing reasonably close to Basic Strategy, they're probably counting. Splitting 10s is sometimes the right move when the deck is 10-rich. I never had the guts to split 10s when I counted. It seems to be a guaranteed way to grab the pit boss's attention.
  #65  
Old 02-03-2019, 08:06 PM
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Suppose some casino offered people a chance to play Blackjack and charged them fifty dollars an hour to play. But after the initial payment, there was no further money exchanged; there were no bets. People were playing to see whether they won or lost with no money at stake.

If a person is just playing for the enjoyment of playing Blackjack, this would be an ideal situation. But how many people would actually want to play under those conditions? They want to play for the chance of winning real money even if it means they end up losing more than fifty dollars.
FWIW, I used to play pretty regularly at a table a lot like this. About 25 years ago, there used to be a gaming outfit in Tampa/St. Pete that would set up tables at nightclubs where you would pay $20 or so for a stack of chips. When you lost your chips, you were done, but you could play until closing if you managed to keep ahead. When it was time to go, there was no payout; you simply turned in your remaining chips and left.

It wasn't tremendously popular, but I wasn't often playing alone either.
  #66  
Old 02-13-2019, 05:44 PM
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When a boob makes a stupid play that costs other players money he is noticed. When the same boob makes an idiotic play that wins the other players money, people don't make the connection. Thus math impaired people come to the conclusiuon "bad play by player x loses money for player y"
Heyyyy!!
  #67  
Old 02-13-2019, 08:37 PM
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Heyyyy!!
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