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Old 06-06-2019, 02:45 PM
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Partisan Gerrymandering - Rucho v. Common Cause


This case and the sister case, Lamone v. Benisek, are set to be decided this month. Both raise the issue of whether partisan gerrymandering is prohibited. The SCOTUS Blog page and actual questions presented are:
  1. Whether plaintiffs have standing to press their partisan gerrymandering claims;
  2. Whether plaintiffs’ partisan gerrymandering claims are justiciable;
  3. Whether North Carolina’s 2016 congressional map is, in fact, an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander.
I think the answers are going to be No, No - not based on evidence presented, and No. In previous iterations of these questions, the court's liberal justices have been in favor of getting involved in partisan gerrymandering, and I don't see their views changing on this matter. Questions during oral arguments seem to indicate conservatives taking the status quo and not interceding.

Last minute predictions?
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Old 06-06-2019, 02:50 PM
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I'll predict that the Republican justices will win, which is generally my default prediction for SCOTUS cases these days. There's 5 of them, after all. Maybe very occasionally one of them votes against the Republican consensus, but that's rare enough to be notable each time it happens, and this case is significant enough (and potentially dangerous enough to Republican politics) that I think it's very unlikely to be one of them.
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Old 06-06-2019, 03:55 PM
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I say it will be Yes, No--and never, and we don't reach this question because of our holding in #2.

5-4 to end court involvement in partisan gerrymandering complaints.
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Old Yesterday, 11:20 AM
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This decision will come out this week, last chance for predictions
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