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  #51  
Old 05-26-2019, 06:08 AM
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One of the things the Tories need to do is decide whether they want someone who is primarily a leader or someone who is primarily a manager. And then choose the person to fill that role.
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Old 05-26-2019, 06:20 AM
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I think the Tories primarily need a campaigner. You can take away from that who I think should get the job. Folk may not like it but just about everything else is secondary in politics. Without a campaigner/leader the Tories are not forming a new government anytime in the forseeable future.
  #53  
Old 05-26-2019, 07:09 AM
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The candidates are:

Andrea Leadsom, Rory Stewart, Esther McVey, Dominic Raab, Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt and Matt Hancock

I'd say that the only three in with a realistic chance are Gove, Hunt, and Johnson. If the MPs narrow it down so that the last two standing are Boris + anybody else, party members will vote for Boris.
  #54  
Old 05-26-2019, 07:12 AM
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cocking it up and making a complete dog's breakfast of the whole schemozzle...?
Aw, how charming. British vulgarities.
  #55  
Old 05-26-2019, 07:37 AM
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The situation - and the person - demand no less.
  #56  
Old 05-26-2019, 09:00 AM
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I'd say that the only three in with a realistic chance are Gove, Hunt, and Johnson. If the MPs narrow it down so that the last two standing are Boris + anybody else, party members will vote for Boris.
Raab is very popular with MPs.
  #57  
Old 05-26-2019, 10:35 AM
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If Johnson is not in the final two candidates whoever ends up winning the contest will have to be seriously impressive at the job. Tory members, already disgruntled(to put it mildly) at the party's failure on Brexit, will be seething at not having at least the opportunity to vote for Johnson. The opinions of party members are not necessarily the same as opinions of Tory voters, but there will be a massive overlap.

Last edited by Fuzzy_wuzzy; 05-26-2019 at 10:36 AM.
  #58  
Old 05-26-2019, 10:57 AM
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Positively Shakespearean. Bravo!
  #59  
Old 05-26-2019, 04:00 PM
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The Conservative Woman on Boris. It's not pretty.
  #60  
Old 05-26-2019, 07:33 PM
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EU MEP results are coming in... any thoughts on how this will effect the selection of the PM? Brexit Party is doing disturbingly well...
  #61  
Old 05-26-2019, 08:20 PM
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Obviously it won't be Farage but could it? Is there anything stating a PM must be a Lord or MP? Does the leader of the Conservative party have to be a Conservative Lord or MP or could the role of "Conservative leader" go out of house?
The election isn't for PM; it's for leader of the Tory Party. To win you have to be (duh) a member of the Tory party, and Tory party rules explicitly require that you be a member of parliament. Farage is neither.
  #62  
Old 05-26-2019, 08:23 PM
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EU MEP results are coming in... any thoughts on how this will effect the selection of the PM? Brexit Party is doing disturbingly well...
. . . exactly as predicted by the polls for many weeks now. So I think this is already factores into peoples' assessments and preductions about the leadership contest.
  #63  
Old 05-26-2019, 08:54 PM
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The next British Prime Minister


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EU MEP results are coming in... any thoughts on how this will effect the selection of the PM? Brexit Party is doing disturbingly well...


This is exactly how elections in a multi-party system are supposed to work, when there is a major issue facing the public. The vote should break along the major issue, with parties which take a clear position getting more votes than indecisive parties.

Brexit is the most important issue facing the British people. The two main parties are hopelessly muddled, the Tories even more than Labour. Because they don't give a clear answer to the crucial issue of the day, they lose support.

Brexit Party and Lib-Dems give clear answers to their position on Brexit, and pick up votes accordingly.

As I've commented before, I think the historical precedent is the break-up of the Old Tory party in the mid-19th century, on the protectionist issue of the Corn Laws. You can't have a party composed of people who can't agree on a fundamental issue like that. So Toryism came a cropper, with protectionists founding the Conservative party, and low-tariff Tories drifting off to the new Liberal Party.

Think of parliamentary votes during a time of great election uncertainty as a Sorting Hat.

I leave it to each Doper to decide which party is Slytherin and which is Gryffindor.

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  #64  
Old 05-26-2019, 09:33 PM
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Brexit Party is doing disturbingly well...
They are doing roughly as well as UKIP did in previous Euro elections.

Last edited by Baron Greenback; 05-26-2019 at 09:37 PM.
  #65  
Old 05-27-2019, 04:55 AM
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It looks as though the existential question for the Tories is well and truly in the open, with plenty of noises from the likes of Phillip Hammond that votes of confidence would be withheld from any new leader that pushes for no deal - and it doesn't take many to wipe out any chance of a majority. Could leave them without a replacement PM capable of demonstrating that they have the confidence of Parliament. In which case Mrs M might have to continue holding the fort...
  #66  
Old 05-27-2019, 05:55 AM
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Hammond would say that, though, wouldn't he? He stands to lose his job as Chancellor when a new PM is elected. So he's angling for a seat in the Lords.
  #67  
Old 05-27-2019, 12:04 PM
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Hammond would say that, though, wouldn't he? He stands to lose his job as Chancellor when a new PM is elected. So he's angling for a seat in the Lords.

Pretty sure the survival of his country might be somewhat higher on his motivations...


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  #68  
Old 05-27-2019, 11:13 PM
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Pretty sure the survival of his country might be somewhat higher on his motivations...
It would be nice to see a bit of selfless statemanship in Westminster these days.
  #69  
Old 05-28-2019, 03:47 AM
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It would be nice to see a bit of selfless statemanship in Westminster these days.
The country is not in danger. Not from Brexit or the Tories, anyway. The SNP and Labour are different matters entirely.

Last edited by Quartz; 05-28-2019 at 03:48 AM.
  #70  
Old 05-28-2019, 04:41 AM
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A bad Brexit and/or much more of the Tories as they are, and the country is in a great deal of danger.
  #71  
Old 05-28-2019, 03:08 PM
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The Conservative Woman on Boris. It's not pretty.
I'm as much a non-fan of Boris Johnson as a "paying attention from afar" American can be, but this article is stupidity itself. Two out of the top three points against Boris are:
1. He's overweight.
2. He's referred to as Boris, not Johnson, unlike other great statesmen.
Seriously, those are presented as legit arguments. I'm not kidding, those are the arguments. It's complete dreck. The third main argument is that you would not use the words "conscientious, incredibly hard-working and determined" to describe him. Which, OK, at least now you're getting to something somewhat relevant to potential job performance, but is still presented in a weird, roundabout manner.

Boris Johnson is terrible, IMO. I hope actually intelligent opinion pieces are published that help further this narrative as opposed to this nonsense. Do people actually take this Laura Perrins person seriously over there? Is it parody and I just got whooshed?
  #72  
Old 05-29-2019, 06:21 AM
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And Johnson has been nobbled. He's being taken to court over the £350 million a week claim. The charges are misconduct in a public office.
  #73  
Old 05-29-2019, 08:39 AM
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And Johnson has been nobbled. He's being taken to court over the £350 million a week claim. The charges are misconduct in a public office.
Do I understand this right? That a private party is prosecuting this charge?

Hoo boy! If that could be done in the US with that charge, every president since Clinton (and likely some before him) as well as certain other officials (Hillary Clinton and Dick Cheney, for example) would have been constantly harrassed by these cases. Many, but by no means all, of them frivolous.
  #74  
Old 05-29-2019, 09:05 AM
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Do I understand this right? That a private party is prosecuting this charge?

Hoo boy! If that could be done in the US with that charge, every president since Clinton (and likely some before him) as well as certain other officials (Hillary Clinton and Dick Cheney, for example) would have been constantly harrassed by these cases. Many, but by no means all, of them frivolous.
Yes, it's fair to say that this is a new development. It specifically relates to statements made while campaigning, both for Leave in 2016 and for the Tories in the 2017 general election.

It is obviously a stunt, and the ruling that it is not seems odd. For example, the ruling states that the prosecution was politically motivated in 2016, but given that three years have passed, it's not politically motivated now. It's not clear when the judge thinks the political motivation faded away.

On the other hand, politicians have the power to do a lot of stuff and unlike, say, international banks, or the police, there appears to be no regulatory mechanism to ensure that their communications with the people affected by their decisions have to be accurate, or honest, or plausibly honest, or made in good faith, or have any relation with the truth whatsoever. Maybe there should be such a regulatory mechanism.

In this case, we do have an Office of National Statistics, which is the final word on whether claims of numerical fact are accurate or not. In the 2016 campaign, the ONS ruled that the "We send Europe £350m a week" claim was false. Boris et al. kept using it. Should there not be some mechanism to prevent or discourage politicians from repeating statistics that have been ruled false by the statutory body charged with making such rulings? Or can politicians say literally any old bullshit they like and caveat elector be the only safeguard? I guess we'll find out when the court rules.

(I think the claim that Johnson has been nobbled is an interesting one. This prosecution has been underway since 2016, AIUI. That it has got to this newsworthy stage just as Johnson has started his leadership campaign is bad timing for him, but I'm not sure that it's anything more than bad timing.)
  #75  
Old 05-29-2019, 09:20 AM
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Think of parliamentary votes during a time of great election uncertainty as a Sorting Hat.

I leave it to each Doper to decide which party is Slytherin and which is Gryffindor.

Griffyndor – Brave but foolhardy and somehow successful due to a surprising amount of luck? Sounds like Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party to me.

Slytherin – Diabolical yet wildly unsuccessful? Definitely the Conservatives.

Hufflepuff – Well meaning, down-to-earth slackers? Not sure, but Jeremy Corbyn seems like a badger lover, so let’s go with Labour.

Ravenclaw – Too smart for their own good? Change UK.
  #76  
Old 05-29-2019, 09:32 AM
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Boris Johnson is terrible, IMO.
It occurred to me that Boris Johnson might set the record for shortest UK Prime Ministership. First act of Parliament under his stewardship? A vote of no confidence that he loses.
  #77  
Old 05-29-2019, 09:41 AM
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I think the claim that Johnson has been nobbled is an interesting one.
I wouldn't put it past him to take a leaf out of Farage's book (in Farage's case, re the Electoral Commission) and launch an indignation campaign against the law and/or the judges. Whether that would get any further in practical terms than Cameron/May's much-touted "British Bill of Rights", or whether we would then be going full tilt down the Polish/Hungarian road of wholesale political interference with the judiciary.... who knows?
  #78  
Old 05-29-2019, 09:45 AM
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Not nobbled, but boosted among his supporters. Nobody who is already supporting him will change their mind over this. Quite the contrary - right-wingers are more likely to support him now.

Last edited by GreenWyvern; 05-29-2019 at 09:47 AM.
  #79  
Old 05-29-2019, 09:48 AM
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I wouldn't put it past him to take a leaf out of Farage's book (in Farage's case, re the Electoral Commission) and launch an indignation campaign against the law and/or the judges. Whether that would get any further in practical terms than Cameron/May's much-touted "British Bill of Rights", or whether we would then be going full tilt down the Polish/Hungarian road of wholesale political interference with the judiciary.... who knows?
Yes, he'll definitely claim it's an elitist Remainer case, and there's a pretty good chance he'll hint jovially that there are "powers" who don't want to see the jolly old will of the good old British public implemented. Possibly not when he needs MPs votes, but when he's going to shires to woo Tory party members, vastly more likely. Given the Tory party's recent pisspoor record of defending the indpendence of the judiciary, it's unlikely he'd meet much internal opposition if he wanted to stir up this particular turnip-ghost.
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Old 05-29-2019, 10:44 AM
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I'm as much a non-fan of Boris Johnson as a "paying attention from afar" American can be, but this article is stupidity itself.
It tells you a lot about the quality of the Tories, doesn't it?
  #81  
Old 05-29-2019, 10:53 AM
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Griffyndor – Brave but foolhardy and somehow successful due to a surprising amount of luck? Sounds like Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party to me.
Yup.

Quote:
Slytherin – Diabolical yet wildly unsuccessful? Definitely the Conservatives.
Add in Labour. Beneath Corbyn's friendly visage lies a nest of vipers.

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Hufflepuff – Well meaning, down-to-earth slackers? Not sure, but Jeremy Corbyn seems like a badger lover, so let’s go with Labour.
Liberal Democrats for me.

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Ravenclaw – Too smart for their own good? Change UK.
Change UK are a bunch of no-hopers and those about to be deselected. For Ravenclaw I'd suggest the Lords - people who have been promoted out of the way.
  #82  
Old 06-09-2019, 07:05 PM
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Michael Gove's No 10 hopes falter after cocaine admission: Environment secretary is facing calls to withdraw from Tory leadership campaign

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Michael Gove’s campaign to be Conservative leader is hanging in the balance with calls for him to quit the race, as he was forced to insist that he never misled officials about his use of class A drugs.

The environment secretary gave an interview admitting he was “fortunate” to have avoided jail for possession of cocaine, after a new book revealed he had taken the drug on several occasions while a journalist around 20 years ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...aine-admission

George Bush used cocaine when he was young--it didn't prevent his election.

Last edited by PastTense; 06-09-2019 at 07:10 PM.
  #83  
Old 06-09-2019, 08:00 PM
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Michael Gove's No 10 hopes falter after cocaine admission: Environment secretary is facing calls to withdraw from Tory leadership campaign



https://www.theguardian.com/politics...aine-admission

George Bush used cocaine when he was young--it didn't prevent his election.
Yes, but Bush was elected in a popular ballot. Gove is facing a selectorate largely consisting of elderly, middle- and upper-class white men of notably socially conservative views. This may damage him.
  #84  
Old 06-10-2019, 12:57 AM
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Good cartoon on Tory candidates' drug use.
  #85  
Old 06-10-2019, 07:45 AM
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The curse of Jeremy Hunt/C*nt strikes again [unintentionally NSFW].
  #86  
Old 06-18-2019, 05:05 AM
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Amazingly, it's going to be Johnson.

I mean, there's the rather obvious point that all the contenders for the Tory party leadership are in fact Tories, so it's unlikely I would look at any of them and think, "I am totally happy with this person being Prime Minister". But given the selection pool, I am still astonished that Tory party members can look at Johnson and see someone they think will be a) a good PM and b) an election winning Tory leader. The gulf between their view of the man and mine is unbridgeable.

But, it's their contest, not mine. And for all the "excitement" about whether the person who loses to him in the final ballot will be the John Buchan cosplayer, the guy who stabbed Johnson in the back last time, the wannabe dictator, or the one who leaves British babies to die for the sake of a headline, the polling is pretty clear that when it goes to the votes of Tory party members, Johnson is going to walk it.

What do they think is going to happen next?
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Old 06-18-2019, 05:10 AM
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I've never done cocaine.

This means I'm less cool than Michael Gove.

It's chilling.
  #88  
Old 06-18-2019, 05:27 AM
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I've never done cocaine.

This means I'm less cool than Michael Gove.

It's chilling.
That mirrors my thoughts. Gove is anti-charisma, but he used to take party drugs? It's almost like that admission is an advantage for him.
  #89  
Old 06-18-2019, 06:23 AM
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It seems that Boris Johnson has escaped from his minders and given a TV interview:

Mr Blobby's Question and Answer
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Old 06-18-2019, 06:46 AM
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If you look at Boris Johnson's history, it shows that he is dishonest, unprinicipled, hypocritical, corrupt, and dangerously and expensively incompetent, and has openly derided and insulted women, homosexuals, Muslims, the working class, and the entire North of England. If Conservatives want to say "Yes, this is the man that represents who we are as a party", who are we to argue?

Case in point: Tory Party members are willing to pursue Brexit even if it destroys the Union and the Conservative Party:
Quote:
The survey found 63 per cent of members would be prepared to see Brexit take place even if it meant Scotland leaving the UK. Some 61 per cent would rather Brexit took place even if it caused "significant damage" to the economy, 59 per cent would prioritise leaving the EU even if it meant Northern Ireland breaking away from the rest of the UK, and 54 per cent would accept the Tory party "being destroyed" in order to secure Brexit.
Clearly these are people fully committed to this course of action under any circumsta...
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But only 39 per cent of the members who responded to the question said they would want Brexit to take place if it meant Labour leader Mr Corbyn becoming the next prime minister, with 51 per cent saying they would rather the UK did not leave the EU in order to avoid that happening.
Hmm.

Rory Stewart seems to have a bit of momentum as the anti-Boris candidate, possibly helped by the Last Week Tonight piece on him (which while largely unflattering - John Oliver described him as looking like "If Eddie Redmayne fucked Willem Dafoe in a Wallace and Grommit cartoon" - gave him a sudden visibility bump). Stewart seems to have done well in the debate and has moved up to second place behind Boris (albeit by a long way) but it looks like the rest of the field are likely to gang up on him. We'll see if he makes the cut tonight.

Last edited by Gyrate; 06-18-2019 at 06:51 AM.
  #91  
Old 06-18-2019, 07:02 AM
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If you look at Boris Johnson's history, it shows that he is dishonest, unprinicipled, hypocritical, corrupt, and dangerously and expensively incompetent, and has openly derided and insulted women, homosexuals, Muslims, the working class, and the entire North of England. If Conservatives want to say "Yes, this is the man that represents who we are as a party", who are we to argue?
It's very telling. But presumably, they would describe Johnson in different terms. And I can't imagine a set of terms which both favourably describe him and correspond with reality.

Case in point: Tory Party members are willing to pursue Brexit even if it destroys the Union and the Conservative Party:

Clearly these are people fully committed to this course of action under any circumsta...Hmm [Not if it means Corbyn].[/quote]

It's difficult to look at that survey and conclude that they're OK with stuff that makes other people's lives worse, but won't risk Corbyn because his tax policies will affect their second homes and nest eggs.

Quote:
Rory Stewart seems to have a bit of momentum as the anti-Boris candidate, possibly helped by the Last Week Tonight piece on him (which while largely unflattering - John Oliver described him as looking like "If Eddie Redmayne fucked Willem Dafoe in a Wallace and Grommit cartoon" - gave him a sudden visibility bump). Stewart seems to have done well in the debate and has moved up to second place behind Boris (albeit by a long way) but it looks like the rest of the field are likely to gang up on him. We'll see if he makes the cut tonight.
Stewart is winning plaudits, to the extent that the the Johnson campaign's in-house magazine, aka The Telegraph, has decided to smear him by implying that he used to be on Her Majesty's secret service (and this is bad why?). But a lot of the momentum is due to non-Tories backing him, which ought to work in a contest to see who's going to lead the Tories to the next general election - but likely won't.
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Old 06-18-2019, 07:06 AM
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If you look at Boris Johnson's history, it shows that he is dishonest, unprinicipled, hypocritical, corrupt, and dangerously and expensively incompetent, and has openly derided and insulted women, homosexuals, Muslims, the working class, and the entire North of England.
Until you said "North of England" instead of "Scotland" I thought you were talking about a politician from another continent
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Old 06-18-2019, 12:10 PM
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Stewart is winning plaudits, to the extent that the the Johnson campaign's in-house magazine, aka The Telegraph, has decided to smear him by implying that he used to be on Her Majesty's secret service (and this is bad why?). But a lot of the momentum is due to non-Tories backing him, which ought to work in a contest to see who's going to lead the Tories to the next general election - but likely won't.
I wan't clear on why the Telegraph thought that was a point against him either. It is highly unlikely to turn the public against him and in fact it may prompt people to read more about his history, which is an interesting one, one that lends more weight to his challenge.

I confess I've never thought of him as a tory leader (as he's always had a whiff of left-leaning to me) but he has struck me as sincere and pragmatic whenever I've heard him speak. He also has the benefit of being less divisive that many of the other challengers. He'd probably be my favourite if I were voting.
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  #94  
Old 06-18-2019, 12:54 PM
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Results are in for this election round:
Boris Johnson 126
Jeremy Hunt 46
Michael Gove 41
Rory Stewart 37
Sajid Javid 33
Dominic Raab 30

Since there is a minimum of 33 votes this round Raab is dropped. Stewart made a significant increase so he is still in.

Quote:
MPs will vote again on Wednesday, and if necessary on Thursday, until the field is narrowed down to just two names, which will then be offered to Conservative members in a postal ballot. The result will be announced in the week beginning 22 July.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...eadership-race

It wouldn't surprise me if Johnson made a deal with the other final two candidate--giving him a nice Cabinet position in return for dropping out of the race.

Last edited by PastTense; 06-18-2019 at 12:57 PM.
  #95  
Old Yesterday, 01:02 AM
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Results are in for this election round:
Boris Johnson 126
Jeremy Hunt 46
Michael Gove 41
Rory Stewart 37
Sajid Javid 33
Dominic Raab 30
Just to put these numbers in context, there are 313 Tory MPs eligible to vote in these knockout rounds and they all voted, so Boris still has under 50% of the vote. Not that that matters as, unless all the others drop out, the two candidates with the most votes will eventually be put to the wider party membership.

If we’re to believe the media, the party membership is overwhelmingly pro-Boris, so I don’t really think there’s any question of who’s going to be our next PM. However, what will be interesting is who caves when. Again, if we believe the press, Stewart is the only one principled enough to stand-up to Johnson. The others will likely all pull out if offered a cushy enough cabinet position. I don’t know if that’s true, so it will be interesting to see what happens today. If he plays it right, Stewart could be very well placed to become a more moderate leader, if and when Brexit destroys Johnson’s administration. That very well may be his game plan.

OB
  #96  
Old Yesterday, 01:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Stanislaus View Post
It's difficult to look at that survey and conclude that they're OK with stuff that makes other people's lives worse, but won't risk Corbyn because his tax policies will affect their second homes and nest eggs.
It's because they believe that Corbyn becoming PM will cause all of those other things to happen as well.
  #97  
Old Yesterday, 01:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Mrs McGinty View Post
It's because they believe that Corbyn becoming PM will cause all of those other things to happen as well.
Absolutely, I think that’s the problem with that survey. The responders don’t really believe Brexit will cause any of those things (it will all be bunnies and unicorns). But Labour winning the next election, to them that’s a real and scary possibility.

OB
  #98  
Old Yesterday, 01:35 AM
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To be fair, they're probably right on Scotland and Northern Ireland.

And the worst of all scenarios must surely be Brexit plus Corbyn, as there is no major British political leader in memory who would be a worse choice to lead at a time we need trade deals made. Outside of the EU, we're not going to rebuild our economy off the back of deals with Cuba and Venezuela. With Corbyn and Trump on opposite sides of the table, we'd be more likely to end up with tit-for-tat sanctions with the US than we would with a decent trade deal. And given the aura of purity that represents pretty much his entire appeal, it's hard to think of many significant trading partners outside of the EU with which Corbyn could negotiate without either pissing them off or looking like a massive hypocrite.
  #99  
Old Yesterday, 02:02 AM
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Of course, the advantage Boris would have is that everyone already knows he's a massive hypocrite. The unprincipled swine could and would negotiate from a position of pure, short-term national interest, disregarding any moral or strategic concerns. I'm guessing this is why so many Tory MPs are swinging behind him, despite absolutely loathing the man. They see that, while we're going to be utterly fucked whichever way Brexit plays out, a shitbag like Johnson might have the best chance of softening the blow.
  #100  
Old Yesterday, 03:00 AM
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Johnson can be unfailingly relied upon to let you down, and those who support him for the leadership fully understand that he will let them down. His big attraction for the Tories is his demonstrated ability to lie and get away with it, and in the present juncture they see this as a political asset. To get elected as leader he will lie and lie and lie, telling different people and groups whatever they want to hear, however impossible, and afterwards he can pivot and instead do what is possible and practicable. And the people that he lied to won't be that outraged because, hey, he's Boris; that's what he does; they knew that when they voted for him. And so his pivot, whatever it is, will be forgiven and the Tory party will survive.

It's a desperate hope, but it's the last hope they have; hence Boris's commanding position in the race
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