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  #51  
Old 04-15-2019, 01:03 AM
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But it's been 20 years since we nominated a WASP man, and 16 since we nominated any white man. That doesn't mean, as you say, that it's got to be a white guy again this time; but it does strike me that they should now be back in the mix again.
Joe Biden was VP for eight of those years. Bernie Sanders is broadly seen as white. The fact that Beto and Buttigieg are even being taken seriously looks a lot like an attempt to elevate an underqualified white male as an advertising gimmick, to excite voters who want another Jack Kennedy.

Meanwhile, women have been dismissed and overlooked as candidates for most of the last century. Apparently getting the vote didn't mean women got to run. Well, you can stop whinging about the fact that Democrats run something other than white men now. Maybe you'll live to see a race wherein both the GOP and the Democrats run tickets with two women.
  #52  
Old 04-15-2019, 06:32 AM
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The #1 pointless candidacy with a bullet is Kristen Gillibrand's. She's got fewer donors than Yang or Gabbard, who have qualified for the debates while she has not. She can't even get past 1% in the polls, despite plenty of name recognition(relative to lesser known candidates outperforming her), and despite pretty decent coverage and a CNN town hall. Hopefully her humiliation is a lesson to all future candidates that in the internet age it's impossible to win when your political positions are based on the job you're running for rather than principles.
  #53  
Old 04-15-2019, 04:14 PM
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I actually like that Gillibrand is as adaptable as she is. A willingness to admit previous error and change course is a good thing in a chief executive. Even FDR started a bit more conservative, and then moved left and left again.
  #54  
Old 04-15-2019, 09:14 PM
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The #1 pointless candidacy with a bullet is Kristen Gillibrand's. She's got fewer donors than Yang or Gabbard, who have qualified for the debates while she has not. She can't even get past 1% in the polls, despite plenty of name recognition(relative to lesser known candidates outperforming her), and despite pretty decent coverage and a CNN town hall. Hopefully her humiliation is a lesson to all future candidates that in the internet age it's impossible to win when your political positions are based on the job you're running for rather than principles.
The race isn't big enough for Gillibrand and Warren, and it's not big enough for Gillibrand and Klobuchar. I suspect Gillibrand loses to both. She'll be done after the first debate or two.
  #55  
Old 04-16-2019, 03:40 PM
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According to the Delegate Selection Rules, each state gets the choice of one of four methods to decide how many delegates go to each of its districts:
1. Half are divided based on the district's population, and the other half based on the average of the votes for Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 2016;
2. Half are divided based on the votes for Clinton in 2016, and the other half based on the votes for the Democratic candidate(s) in the state's most recent Gubernatorial election;
3. Half are divided based on the number of registered Democratic voters on 1/1/2020, and the other half based on the average of the votes for Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 2016;
4. 1/3 of the delegates based on the method 1 result, 1/3 based on the method 2 result, and 1/3 based on the method 3 result.
Based on the draft proposals I have seen so far (and ignoring any from single-district states):
Method 1: Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Nevada, Rhode Island
Method 2: Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Wisconsin
Method 3: Nebraska, Utah
Method 4: Illinois, Maryland

Also, of the ones I have seen, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, and South Carolina are "apparently" using the "10% rule" (where if nobody gets 15%, everybody within 10% of the winner gets delegates) - I say "apparently" because the DNC may not allow states to use anything other than the "50% of the winner" rule called for in its rules.
  #56  
Old 04-17-2019, 09:57 PM
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One to remove from the OP's list:
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Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe announced Wednesday that he would not be running for president in 2020, quelling speculation that he would join an already sizable group of Democratic hopefuls vying to push President Donald Trump out of office.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...sident-1280594
  #57  
Old 04-18-2019, 04:34 AM
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How is Kloubacher still a viable candidate and not included in the OP's list? Add Booker to that, too. He fizzled out hard outside of his state.

Last edited by SOJA; 04-18-2019 at 04:34 AM.
  #58  
Old 04-18-2019, 08:59 AM
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Ok, proving he's not top tier, Inslee wants to meet with me, obviously to ask for money. (I gave him a lot of money in the last governor's race. Not that I love him, but we needed to avoid Republican control of the position.) Now that I can be part of the smokey back room of national politics, how do I best parlay this into something exciting and profitable for me? I told his guy I like the Governor just fine, but I haven't picked a favorite for 2020. Assuming I get in a room with a guy polling 1%, what should I ask him? What advice should I offer? And, is it wrong to ask for a seat on the Supreme Court if he goes all the way?
  #59  
Old 04-18-2019, 09:50 AM
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Inslee seems qualified and might make a fine President. Tell him he's got to emphasize more than just climate change. That single issue will not win a campaign.
  #60  
Old 04-18-2019, 10:18 AM
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Agreed. Tell him single-issue candidates can sometimes alter the discussion but they don't win. Look up Boss Tweed's remarks about reform politicians for further guidance.

As for how it benefits you? Skip the SCOTUS, dude. Play for a cushy ambassadorship someplace fun. That's where major donors end up and you don't have to wait for someone to die to get the job.
  #61  
Old 04-18-2019, 10:42 PM
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Is Inslee environmentalist in general or just against climate change? If the former, I'm interested. If not, well, I'm disappointed, but at least he has both Congressional and gubernatorial experience, which is a good resumé for the position.
  #62  
Old 04-19-2019, 07:38 AM
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Is Inslee environmentalist in general or just against climate change? If the former, I'm interested. If not, well, I'm disappointed, [...]
I don't quite get your point. Are you worried he'd only care about fossil fuels but be soft on radioactive sludge dumping in rivers?
  #63  
Old 04-19-2019, 08:31 AM
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As for how it benefits you? Skip the SCOTUS, dude. Play for a cushy ambassadorship someplace fun. That's where major donors end up and you don't have to wait for someone to die to get the job.
Thank you for this. I would be very happy to accept the President's nomination as our next Ambassador to Tahiti.
  #64  
Old 04-20-2019, 01:22 AM
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I don't quite get your point. Are you worried he'd only care about fossil fuels but be soft on radioactive sludge dumping in rivers?
There are other environmental issues, like water management & species conservation. And of course phosphate pollution, pesticide use, herbicides, waste stream management, international fishing treaties, ground-level ozone pollution, and so forth. And it matters that we care about forestry standards and EPA enforcement procedures.
  #65  
Old 04-20-2019, 11:17 AM
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Joe Biden was VP for eight of those years. Bernie Sanders is broadly seen as white. The fact that Beto and Buttigieg are even being taken seriously looks a lot like an attempt to elevate an underqualified white male as an advertising gimmick, to excite voters who want another Jack Kennedy.

Meanwhile, women have been dismissed and overlooked as candidates for most of the last century. Apparently getting the vote didn't mean women got to run. Well, you can stop whinging about the fact that Democrats run something other than white men now. Maybe you'll live to see a race wherein both the GOP and the Democrats run tickets with two women.
If voters want another Jack Kennedy, why don't they get Joe Kennedy to run?

Seriously, what I know about him I like. For a time there my ideal slate was Joe Kennedy/Tammy Duckworth.
  #66  
Old 04-20-2019, 01:04 PM
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Joe Kennedy's the one who had Elizabeth Warren as a teacher in university, right? I seem to remember that they speak well of each other,

But I think RFK Jr's anti-vax noises are bringing down the Kennedy family name's reputation.
  #67  
Old 05-02-2019, 04:54 PM
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Bennet is in. So this means that Hickenlooper no longer has the boring-moderate-middle-aged-white-male-politician-from-the-state-of-Colorado lane to himself.

Heck, these dudes even look like each other.
  #68  
Old 05-03-2019, 08:15 AM
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If you were asked to rank all the declared candidates 1-21, how far down your list would the eventual nominee have to be before

1. you would vote third party instead

2. you would vote for Donald Trump instead.

My answer in both cases is "22."
  #69  
Old 05-03-2019, 09:49 AM
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Bennet endeared himself to me with his government shutdown rant against Ted Cruz and his fellow travellers. Anyone who can get me to watch half an hour of uninterrupted C-SPAN clearly has leadership potential.

Mostly I'm just going to let the winnowing by fundraising, endorsement and self-immolation take out the first tranche of candidates and see who turns up at the debates.
  #70  
Old 05-03-2019, 12:21 PM
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This just in from the Department of Fuck That Guy:

Quote:
Originally Posted by 538.com
In an interview with Reuters, Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., criticized his fellow 2020 presidential candidates Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren for pushing America “too far left,” and for being just as “divisive” as Trump.

“The problem with some of the candidates in our party is that they’re divisive in the same way that Trump has been so divisive,” Moulton said. “They are pitting different parts of America against each other.”
Also from 538's weekly update, about Tim Ryan (D-Who?)

Quote:
While campaigning in New Hampshire, Ryan was asked by Fox News about Biden’s entry into the presidential race and appeared to take jab at the former vice president saying, “I don’t think people are looking for a superstar. I don’t think they’re looking for a savior. I don’t think they’re looking for a miracle. I think they’re looking for someone who can roll their sleeves up and grind this thing out.”
Um, actually I'd quite like a superstar savior. Nothing like starting your campaign out with a call for lowered expectations.

Eric Swalwell shows some spunk:

Quote:
Following the deadly shooting at the Poway, California synagogue, Swalwell was the only presidential candidate to directly mention Trump, saying in a response to Trump’s tweet, “Spare us your thoughts and prayers. It’s an alibi for inaction. You told the NRA yesterday you’d keep dangerous guns in the hands of dangerous people. We will take it from here with action.”
  #71  
Old 05-03-2019, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Red Wiggler View Post
If you were asked to rank all the declared candidates 1-21, how far down your list would the eventual nominee have to be before

1. you would vote third party instead

2. you would vote for Donald Trump instead.

My answer in both cases is "22."

Mine too. But that just means you and I are not the people whose personal preferences should be catered to in choosing a nominee. We need to find the nominee who can best do a combination of the following, particularly in MI/WI/PA:

1. Pull Obama-Trump voters back into the fold

2. Keep Romney-Clinton voters, plus appeal to some very reluctant Trump voters who had hoped he would start acting presidential after the election and are now disgusted

3. Get black voters who sat out 2016 back to the polls

4. Convert a number of people who voted third party in 2016 to voting Democratic
__________________
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  #72  
Old 05-03-2019, 10:46 PM
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And now word on the street has it that De Blasio is about to jump in next week.
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