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  #101  
Old 04-24-2019, 09:27 AM
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Bear in mind that only a mere two years after Bush left office, Republicans gained 63 House seats in the 2010 midterms; the largest-ever gain of House seats in electoral history. Plus a gain of six Senate seats. And all it took was Obama and healthcare reform.

So I wouldn't put too much faith in the notion that having Trump stay in power will destroy the Republican Party.
  #102  
Old 04-24-2019, 11:46 AM
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Bear in mind that only a mere two years after Bush left office, Republicans gained 63 House seats in the 2010 midterms; the largest-ever gain of House seats in electoral history. Plus a gain of six Senate seats. And all it took was Obama and healthcare reform.

So I wouldn't put too much faith in the notion that having Trump stay in power will destroy the Republican Party.
Bolding mine.

It's not accurate to say the only reasons for the big swing were Obama and Obamacare. Lots of those seats were traditionally GOP-held seats that swung blue in the shock of the 2008 economic collapse, then reverted red two years later.

But you are right that GOP voters are pretty forgiving when their party screws them over. Just two years after GWB steered the ship into the rocks, they were right back in the fold.
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  #103  
Old 04-24-2019, 03:33 PM
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Probably because the SDMB leans so far left that there isn't much criticism of Dems here. What little there is often enough is responded to with "both sides" arguments that I'm a bit surprised you'd try to make an "only" claim.
I would love to return to a world in which I felt as though criticizing progressives was worth my time, but the fact is that the government and society are mostly influenced by the political right wing, which barely veils its authoritarian and antidemocratic tendencies at this point. Democrats have their problems, but the main one I see is that they're losing elections. That bothers me. It bothers me that Democrats haven't figured out how to connect with more Americans, but on the other hand, it troubles me more than more Americans haven't figured out that unless you're a theocrat or wealthy, the Democratic party is the party that is most likely protecting your well being, regardless of what you think to the contrary.

Last edited by asahi; 04-24-2019 at 03:34 PM.
  #104  
Old 04-24-2019, 04:07 PM
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Bolding mine.

It's not accurate to say the only reasons for the big swing were Obama and Obamacare. Lots of those seats were traditionally GOP-held seats that swung blue in the shock of the 2008 economic collapse, then reverted red two years later.

But you are right that GOP voters are pretty forgiving when their party screws them over. Just two years after GWB steered the ship into the rocks, they were right back in the fold.
It's not just the republicans who were to blame; it was independents who bought into the whole trope about Obama being a "socialist".

What has worried me all along, and maybe *the* reason I am chicken little, is that American voters (we as a country) are just idiots. I'm sorry, but I just don't know any other way to put it.

Two years into a recession that was obviously caused by corporate greed, and American voters essentially vote AGAINST healthcare reform and an AGAINST economic stimulus -- because apparently debt is only a problem when you have a black guy running it up.

We keep voting for stupid, stupid people for stupid, stupid reasons, and we vote the smart ones off the island. I don't just blame our education system either. We have Google - we have access to more information in a few minutes than the average human who has ever walked the earth has had access to in the average lifetime - maybe 20 lifetimes. A little bit of curiosity wouldn't hurt. We deserve Trump, and we deserve all the shit he is going to do to this country. Not all of us individually, but collectively, hell yeah we do.

Last edited by asahi; 04-24-2019 at 04:10 PM.
  #105  
Old 04-25-2019, 12:32 AM
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What has worried me all along, and maybe *the* reason I am chicken little, is that American voters (we as a country) are just idiots. I'm sorry, but I just don't know any other way to put it.

... We have Google - we have access to more information in a few minutes than the average human who has ever walked the earth has had access to in the average lifetime - maybe 20 lifetimes....
The "Information Highway" turns out to be a bunch of cul-de-sacs as it applies to political information.

A hundred years ago, junkies of Hearst newspapers would sit elbow-to-elbow with readers of Pulitzer newspapers, and there could be common agreement about basic facts.

Now we live in bubbles. We hear mainstream media talk of how damaging the Mueller Report is to Trump, while 83% of Fox Potatoes think it exonerates him. Bad actors like the Kremlin or the GOP can poison the Information Highway with lies. Google and social media can be hindrance rather than help: Type "Tell me about Elizabeth Warren" and your click-history may be examined before doing the search: Google wants to improve its ad revenue by feeding you the stories it thinks you want to click on.

Last edited by septimus; 04-25-2019 at 12:32 AM.
  #106  
Old 04-25-2019, 01:02 AM
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It's not just the republicans who were to blame; it was independents who bought into the whole trope about Obama being a "socialist".

What has worried me all along, and maybe *the* reason I am chicken little, is that American voters (we as a country) are just idiots. I'm sorry, but I just don't know any other way to put it.

Two years into a recession that was obviously caused by corporate greed, and American voters essentially vote AGAINST healthcare reform and an AGAINST economic stimulus -- because apparently debt is only a problem when you have a black guy running it up.

We keep voting for stupid, stupid people for stupid, stupid reasons, and we vote the smart ones off the island. I don't just blame our education system either. We have Google - we have access to more information in a few minutes than the average human who has ever walked the earth has had access to in the average lifetime - maybe 20 lifetimes. A little bit of curiosity wouldn't hurt. We deserve Trump, and we deserve all the shit he is going to do to this country. Not all of us individually, but collectively, hell yeah we do.
Again, average IQ is 100. Take an IQ test and see how you do. Now think if you score a 115 or above you are in the top 15%. If you score a 130 you are in the top 2%. Now I am not sure what your IQ is but itís probably at least 115. That means 85% of the population canít think as well as you. But they can all vote.

Now you should begin to realize why talking smart and nuanced is not necessarily a winning strategy in a democracy. Appealing to emotion works. Communication that is simpler can be very effective. No one is reading a thesis or books in order to choose a candidate. I shouldnít say no one. However, whatever the number is, itís not large.
  #107  
Old 04-25-2019, 03:03 AM
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Obama got put over the top by record black turnout. It's just that simple. Blacks voted for him because he was black. Sadly, this is about the depth of analysis that most voters routinely engage in.

Trump won in 2016 because (a) most Republicans would vote the R ticket even if the candidate was an orange tufted baboon, and (b) there were enough xenophobes, bigots, and white nationalists to put him over the top.

What greatly compounds the problem is the generally very low voter turnout, so that whatever voting blocs the candidate happens to attract have a disproportionate influence.
Well by that mark Pete Buttigieg will win in 2020 because being LGBT is more okay today than it was in 2016 and earlier. And affixing the "queer" label is what the hip kids do these days to be "coo" with the cool cats on the block. I'd argue there's more LGBT and queer or questioning (don't make me simplify this as I know next to nothing about gays or whatever) than black people or other ethnic and racial minorities combined. And those who are non-heterosexual and of a minority, be it ethnic or racial, will likely vote for an ally over an old man with a closet gay VP who'd probably burn a gay person if the law allowed him to.

Last edited by SOJA; 04-25-2019 at 03:07 AM.
  #108  
Old 04-25-2019, 11:28 AM
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People don't vote for Trump because they're stupid. I think they do it to see chaos that injures someone else more than them. Rural revenge. If it goes downhill they are better off relatively. It's the only play they think they have. And if there is a fascist in the race, it will be a dog whistle to evey one of them. They all will be looking to the same solution, and the more they look, and find each other, the more electoral success that fascist with all those eyeballs will have.

We need electoral college, and gerrymander reform, and the census must be protected from Republican abuses.

Last edited by drad dog; 04-25-2019 at 11:30 AM.
  #109  
Old 04-25-2019, 03:53 PM
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Literacy tests for being able to vote worked out well (). What's the alternative to letting stupid people have a vote?
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Old 04-25-2019, 04:53 PM
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Literacy tests for being able to vote worked out well (). What's the alternative to letting stupid people have a vote?
U.S.A. muddled through for almost two centuries with no President as grotesque as Trump. We need to combat the severity of the lying we see today, and the unprecedented belief in even the craziest of the lies.

No, I have no simple proposal on how to achieve that.
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Old 04-25-2019, 05:05 PM
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Some fellow Democrats on Facebook are just as screaming, teeth spitting aggressive as Trump supporters. I fear that this hate of the other side will become the political way in the United States.
If this "mean people" method worked for Trump, may it not work for other candidates?
  #112  
Old 04-25-2019, 05:09 PM
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U.S.A. muddled through for almost two centuries with no President as grotesque as Trump. We need to combat the severity of the lying we see today, and the unprecedented belief in even the craziest of the lies.

No, I have no simple proposal on how to achieve that.
Well, you yourself hinted at one area of possible action here:

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... Type "Tell me about Elizabeth Warren" and your click-history may be examined before doing the search: Google wants to improve its ad revenue by feeding you the stories it thinks you want to click on.
This is a real problem. These companies purport to be sources of information, but of course they are actually merely sources of re-enforcement-of-existing-belief. Because that leads to higher revenues.

These companies are massively profitable (well, the big ones, anyway), yet escape regulation by posing as something they are not. Today we learned a bit about that profitability:

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Zuckerberg, Ballmer Gain Combined $5.1 Billion After Strong Microsoft, Facebook Earnings
The net worths of big tech’s blue chip billionaires jumped Thursday as soon as stock markets opened. The gains came after both Facebook and Microsoft reported better than expected revenue growth on Wednesday after the market closed. Altogether the value of Facebook and Microsoft shares held by 27 billionaires rose $7.4 billion, thanks to the strong earnings reports.

The biggest gainer by far was Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, the largest individual shareholder in the social network he founded in a Harvard dorm room 15 years ago. Zuckerberg’s fortune rose $3.9 billion on Thursday to $71.8 billion.

Despite concerns over its platforms’ data security and privacy, Facebook’s quarterly revenue exceeded $15 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase. The company estimates that 2.1 billion people use one of its services every day. Its share price on Thursday rose 5.8% to $193.26. ...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carterc.../#2ba7e7cb3c23


It's human nature to cling to a belief that we are fully rational. We dismiss the idea that a Google or Facebook algorithm, created to increase the wealth of Google and Facebook, could be influencing our perception of what's true and what's false.

But the fact is that Google and Facebook, to an extent no one wants to admit, is defining what's true and what's false. And they are virtually unregulated. Yes, they pay piddling little fines here and there---but that doesn't impact their policies.

Last edited by Sherrerd; 04-25-2019 at 05:11 PM.
  #113  
Old 04-25-2019, 09:36 PM
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Obama got elected because his opponents weren't willing to tell outright lies and exploit the stupidity referred to in the OP, as well as to court white nationalists.
Damn it! So Barry only wonónot once, but twiceóbecause the GOP made critical errors nominating two different candidates with actual morals. Looks like they wised up after that.
  #114  
Old 04-25-2019, 10:07 PM
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Damn it! So Barry only won—not once, but twice—because the GOP made critical errors nominating two different candidates with actual morals. Looks like they wised up after that.
One moment that I will never forget from McCain:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...ent-2008-video
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“I can’t trust Obama. I have read about him, and he’s not, um, he’s an Arab,” a woman said to McCain at a town hall meeting in Lakeville, Minnesota in October 2008.

McCain grabbed the microphone from her, cutting her off. “No, ma’am,” he said. “He’s a decent family man [and] citizen that just I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues, and that’s what the campaign’s all about. He’s not [an Arab].”

Of course, being of Arab descent and a “decent family man” have nothing to do with one another, and are not mutually exclusive. McCain’s response could have been better — he could have pointed out that it does not matter whether someone is Muslim or Arab or anything else — but taking away the microphone from the woman and defending his opponent was a powerful moment.

...

In 2013 Obama called McCain a “person of classic integrity” who’s “willing to say things regardless of the politics.” That wound up including McCain’s no vote in the summer of 2017 that sank the GOP’s efforts to repeal one of Obama’s signature pieces of legislation, the Affordable Care Act.

In a statement on Saturday, Obama reacted to McCain’s death, saying that for all of his differences with McCain, the pair shared “a fidelity to something higher — the ideals for which generations of Americans and immigrants alike have fought, marched and sacrificed.” He said they saw their political battles as “an opportunity to serve as stewards” of those ideals.

“Few of us have been tested the way John once was, or required to show the kind of courage that he did,” he said. “But all of us can aspire to the courage to put the greater good above our own. At John’s best, he showed us what that means. And for that, we are all in his debt.”
Trump does not have that kind of courage.

Last edited by GIGObuster; 04-25-2019 at 10:07 PM.
  #115  
Old 04-25-2019, 10:51 PM
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U.S.A. muddled through for almost two centuries with no President as grotesque as Trump. We need to combat the severity of the lying we see today, and the unprecedented belief in even the craziest of the lies.

No, I have no simple proposal on how to achieve that.
You realize that pure democracy was not something the wise founders desired. Well not only do we have more positions that are elected by the people we also have damn near free mass and global media. Without clawing back some of the concessions to more direct democracy you arenít going to be able to counter increasingly sophisticated propaganda.
  #116  
Old 04-25-2019, 11:20 PM
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You realize that pure democracy was not something the wise founders desired. Well not only do we have more positions that are elected by the people we also have damn near free mass and global media. Without clawing back some of the concessions to more direct democracy you arenít going to be able to counter increasingly sophisticated propaganda.
On the contrary, we need a greater degree of direct democracy including increasing the size of the House of Representatives, a method to approve constitutional amendments by national referendums, automatic voter registration, and the like. You mention high IQ people abovethread, but there's no reason to think that those with above-average IQ have any inherently better judgement in politics. On the contrary, if you look at the "engineer's fallacy" many people of above average intelligence are prey to popular ideological fashions of their day such as eugenics, Marxism, and libertarianism which have sophisticated though ultimately fallacious structures of justification.
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Old 04-25-2019, 11:44 PM
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On the contrary, we need a greater degree of direct democracy including increasing the size of the House of Representatives, a method to approve constitutional amendments by national referendums, automatic voter registration, and the like. You mention high IQ people abovethread, but there's no reason to think that those with above-average IQ have any inherently better judgement in politics. On the contrary, if you look at the "engineer's fallacy" many people of above average intelligence are prey to popular ideological fashions of their day such as eugenics, Marxism, and libertarianism which have sophisticated though ultimately fallacious structures of justification.
I mention the differing IQ not to pick on people but to highlight that what is effective communication for one audience can be counterproductive with another. And that can lead to interesting outcomes.

Iíd be for larger house and automatic voter registration. However, I think national referendum for amendments is crazy.
  #118  
Old 04-26-2019, 07:42 AM
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On the contrary, we need a greater degree of direct democracy including increasing the size of the House of Representatives...
Why?
  #119  
Old 04-26-2019, 09:07 AM
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How deep into the weeds do we want to go? Why smaller congressional districts are more representative? How some type of proportional representation makes for better elections? I'm still a little vague on the topic rules of this board so I'm not sure about whether these discussions are pertinent to this particular thread but these are great issues that we could debate almost endlessly.
  #120  
Old 04-26-2019, 09:39 AM
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I mention the differing IQ not to pick on people but to highlight that what is effective communication for one audience can be counterproductive with another. And that can lead to interesting outcomes.

Iíd be for larger house and automatic voter registration. However, I think national referendum for amendments is crazy.
We don't often agree, but I wholeheartedly concur with the text in bold. Direct democracy is just nutso - ask Californians how they feel about direct democracy.
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Old 04-26-2019, 11:10 AM
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Why?
My reasoning is it would be fairer and constitutional.
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Old 04-26-2019, 01:38 PM
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Why?
Most other countries with some sort of district-based representation have far lower population to legislator ratios. A lower ratio, in turn, makes a representative more likely to be able to connect with citizens while allowing for the creation of smaller, more cohesive Congressional districts.
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Old 04-26-2019, 02:57 PM
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I might add that the House could use the manpower. We are a nation of 325 million with only one representative for every three-quarters of a million of us and they have to spend a third of their time fund raising.
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Old 04-26-2019, 03:55 PM
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Meanwhile, the economy is apparently doing pretty well. If this keeps up, I think Trump will be difficult for anyone in the Democratic party to defeat.
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Old 04-26-2019, 04:25 PM
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Meanwhile, the economy is apparently doing pretty well. If this keeps up, I think Trump will be difficult for anyone in the Democratic party to defeat.
NPR reported that the jobs created by tariffs on washing machines cost some $180,000 each. I cannot find a cite on the NPR website.
  #126  
Old 04-26-2019, 04:26 PM
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Most other countries with some sort of district-based representation have far lower population to legislator ratios. A lower ratio, in turn, makes a representative more likely to be able to connect with citizens while allowing for the creation of smaller, more cohesive Congressional districts.
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I might add that the House could use the manpower. We are a nation of 325 million with only one representative for every three-quarters of a million of us and they have to spend a third of their time fund raising.
The problem is that the USA's population means that even with the present ratio there are more than 500 representatives. More would look like the Senate of the Republic in Star Wars. We're very close, if not past, the size where the body can function effectively- we almost need representatives for the representatives at this point.
  #127  
Old 04-26-2019, 04:47 PM
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I guess I was hoping 2016 would be redemption and basically a do-over with the guy who the people (not superdelegates) wanted with Bernie Sanders, but of course the DNC overloads it, because the 2nd ballot WILL count superdelegates. They're basically handing Trump the re-election. His supporters will NEVER leave him. I know farmers who've lost money but mention the Supreme Court or will say "What about the alternative?"
  #128  
Old 04-26-2019, 06:40 PM
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The problem is that the USA's population means that even with the present ratio there are more than 500 representatives. More would look like the Senate of the Republic in Star Wars. We're very close, if not past, the size where the body can function effectively- we almost need representatives for the representatives at this point.
How many people does a member of Parliament represent?
  #129  
Old 04-26-2019, 07:03 PM
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The problem is that the USA's population means that even with the present ratio there are more than 500 representatives. More would look like the Senate of the Republic in Star Wars. We're very close, if not past, the size where the body can function effectively- we almost need representatives for the representatives at this point.
The UK manages with 650 MPs in the House of Commons. But you and the other poster are right, the ratio of representatives to voters tends to be much lower in other countries. In the UK this works out to one MP for roughly every 103,000 people. In Canada, 338 members for 37 million works out to one for every 110,000.
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Old 04-26-2019, 07:33 PM
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NPR reported that the jobs created by tariffs on washing machines cost some $180,000 each. I cannot find a cite on the NPR website.
I doubt anyone knows, or cares. The average American voter is watching GOT on Netflix. Wake them up when they give a fuck.
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Old 04-26-2019, 07:58 PM
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That the people have direct power on their own governance is justice. Democracy is not smarter, nor more efficient, nor stable. Equal power sharing is its sole virtue. Love it or leave it alone, it's up to you, I've made my peace with it.

And, of course, does anyone think that being governed by an elite of smart people would be an improvement? Only thing wrong with that, said the Venerable Twain, is that it just ain't so.
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Old 04-26-2019, 10:33 PM
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NPR reported that the jobs created by tariffs on washing machines cost some $180,000 each. I cannot find a cite on the NPR website.
I'm happy to pay more if it means my fellow Americans are employed and that de facto slave labor wasn't used in the production of goods that I purchase.
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Old 04-27-2019, 12:00 AM
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i just returned from a sailing trip during which there was only sporadic internet access and I was not following the political developments. I return to find that there have in fact been some significant developments in the election, and caught up on some of the Democratic town hall, and commentary thereon. My impression: we are fucked. The phrase "circular firing squad" has been used and I believe it applies. I feel this is going to be a disaster and we're gonna have to see Trump's fucking face for another 4 years. All the signs are there,and my intuition never fails me. Fuck.
  #134  
Old 04-27-2019, 09:47 AM
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Is it a slam dunk that Trump will be the Republican nominee?
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Old 04-27-2019, 10:09 AM
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i just returned from a sailing trip during which there was only sporadic internet access and I was not following the political developments. I return to find that there have in fact been some significant developments in the election, and caught up on some of the Democratic town hall, and commentary thereon. My impression: we are fucked. The phrase "circular firing squad" has been used and I believe it applies. I feel this is going to be a disaster and we're gonna have to see Trump's fucking face for another 4 years. All the signs are there,and my intuition never fails me. Fuck.
Dems have 15 identity silos and on any given day, one or more of their candidates are going to be apologizing to some number of them for something they said last week or last month or last decade or what one of their ancestors said or did.

Let's make them all do 23 and me, that'll be a hoot.
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Old 04-27-2019, 10:19 AM
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Is it a slam dunk that Trump will be the Republican nominee?
His support among self-identitified Republicans is very high. Yes, it's pretty much a slam dunk.

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  #137  
Old 04-27-2019, 11:56 AM
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His support among self-identitified Republicans is very high. Yes, it's pretty much a slam dunk.
Republicans are working to try to prevent a challenger to Trump. It may not work but they are trying.

- Republicans Could Cancel Primaries to Protect Trump From a Challenge
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  #138  
Old 04-27-2019, 12:57 PM
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I'm happy to pay more if it means my fellow Americans are employed and that de facto slave labor wasn't used in the production of goods that I purchase.
You could already get that guarantee. Did you not already "Buy American"?
  #139  
Old 04-27-2019, 03:29 PM
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Call me a cockeyed optimist, but I feel something important may happen this year. Listening to Pete Buttigieg really cheers me up, although everybody I talk to says that's an impossibility. I think a Joe Biden/Cory Booker ticket might pull it off. African American involvement is really ratcheting up.

Steve Bannon (of all people) said that a Kamala Harris/Beto O'Rourke ticket would be the best shot. I knocked on doors for Beto, but he seems to be fading fast.

I think there's some combination that might make magic happen, although the effing good economy continues to gnaw at that possibility.
  #140  
Old 04-28-2019, 07:59 AM
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In yesterday's Washington Post.
Quote:
The 2020 election isnít going to be close.

The first-quarter gross domestic product growth rate of 3.2 percent sets up the first reality that will be noted in November 2020 because it telegraphs where the economy will be then: not in recession. Recessions are charted when GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters or more. That can and has occurred in sudden fashion ó financial panics donít send ďsave the dateĒ cards. But the economy over which President Trump is presiding is strong and getting stronger. Innovation is accelerating, not declining. A recession before Election Day looks less and less likely by the day.

Small wonder then that Trump dominates the GOP with an approval rating above 80 percent.*

His administrationís deregulatory push is accelerating. More and more rule-of-law judges, disinclined to accept bureaucratsí excuses for overregulation, are being confirmed to the bench. Readiness levels in the U.S. military have been renewed. Our relationship with our strongest ally, Israel, is at its closest in decades.

Meanwhile, the Dems are facing a Hobbesian choice of Sens. Bernie Sanders or Kamala D. Harris, or former vice president Joe Biden.
....
Thump's despicable character and bull-in-a-China-shop foreign policy style don't seem to matter to the Pubbies.

*"Gallup found that Trumpís job approval remained unchanged from last month among Republicans, with about 9 in 10 approving of his performance."
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"Itís not who starts the game, but who finishes it." John Havlicek
  #141  
Old 04-28-2019, 08:03 AM
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... Steve Bannon (of all people) said that a Kamala Harris/Beto O'Rourke ticket would be the best shot. ...
I think Mr. Bannon is playing a joke on you.

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 04-28-2019 at 08:04 AM.
  #142  
Old 04-28-2019, 01:27 PM
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You may be right.
  #143  
Old 04-28-2019, 05:05 PM
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That the people have direct power on their own governance is justice. Democracy is not smarter, nor more efficient, nor stable. Equal power sharing is its sole virtue. Love it or leave it alone, it's up to you, I've made my peace with it.

And, of course, does anyone think that being governed by an elite of smart people would be an improvement? Only thing wrong with that, said the Venerable Twain, is that it just ain't so.
ĎMany forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.Öí

Winston S Churchill, 11 November 1947
  #144  
Old 04-28-2019, 05:38 PM
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I would love to return to a world in which I felt as though criticizing progressives was worth my time, but the fact is that the government and society are mostly influenced by the political right wing, which barely veils its authoritarian and antidemocratic tendencies at this point.
This. Complaining about the Democratic party at this point is like complaining that the fireman carrying you out of a fire has some serious BO. There's a time and place for those complaints, and its not while the GOP exists.
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Old 04-28-2019, 08:27 PM
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This. Complaining about the Democratic party at this point is like complaining that the fireman carrying you out of a fire has some serious BO. There's a time and place for those complaints, and its not while the GOP exists.
This post sounds like it could have been written by Alyssa Milano
  #146  
Old 04-28-2019, 11:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi
I would love to return to a world in which I felt as though criticizing progressives was worth my time, but the fact is that the government and society are mostly influenced by the political right wing, which barely veils its authoritarian and antidemocratic tendencies at this point.
This. Complaining about the Democratic party at this point is like complaining that the fireman carrying you out of a fire has some serious BO. There's a time and place for those complaints, and its not while the GOP exists.
+++.

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I doubt anyone knows, or cares. The average American voter is watching GOT on Netflix. Wake them up when they give a fuck.
Roman autocrats needed spectacles of lions mauling gladiators to keep their citizens in line. Americans are a simpler, stupider people, and more easily distracted. Trump will be re-elected.
  #147  
Old 04-29-2019, 12:36 AM
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Trump will be re-elected, but that's not the reason why. It has nothing to do with people needing a "spectacle." It has everything to do with the fact that the Democrats don't have their shit together at all, they're totally a "circular firing squad" and will only continue to be such...between Biden who's too old and too white for the progressives, Bernie who's too radical and too risky for the centrists, both Bernie AND Biden being too male for people who want to see a woman and too white for people who want to see a minority; and then Warren who has zero personal charisma, Kamala Harris who's talking about executive orders for gun control, Cory Booker who I initially had high hopes for but seems to be getting lost in the shuffle; Beto who has had all of his thunder stolen by Buttigieg; who himself seems to be catching flak from progressives and peaceniks for being too generous to Trump supporters and having a career in Military Intelligence that stokes their fears about the surveillance state and US warmongering.

That may read like a long-winded and overly pessimistic description of the candidates. What it actually is, is a summary of everything I've seen people posting on Facebook over the past few days.

The day I heard Democrats squabbling over the issue of giving incarcerated prisoners the right to vote - of all fucking things to argue about RIGHT NOW (!) - was the day I knew we were doomed. We are doomed. These candidates are all a mess. Some of them are kinda OK, like Pete, Booker, and Yang (whose chances of getting the nomination are the same as my chances of qualifying for a Formula One race and signing a contract with the Yankees on the same day.) Collectively they are a mess, and by the time they've exhausted all of their energy in the primary, Trump will be ready and all too willing to begin the dirtiest, cruelest, and most-watched political war in history against the Democratic nominee.

We're fucked.
  #148  
Old 04-29-2019, 06:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Lamoral View Post
Trump will be re-elected, but that's not the reason why. It has nothing to do with people needing a "spectacle." It has everything to do with the fact that the Democrats don't have their shit together at all, they're totally a "circular firing squad" and will only continue to be such...between Biden who's too old and too white for the progressives, Bernie who's too radical and too risky for the centrists, both Bernie AND Biden being too male for people who want to see a woman and too white for people who want to see a minority; and then Warren who has zero personal charisma, Kamala Harris who's talking about executive orders for gun control, Cory Booker who I initially had high hopes for but seems to be getting lost in the shuffle; Beto who has had all of his thunder stolen by Buttigieg; who himself seems to be catching flak from progressives and peaceniks for being too generous to Trump supporters and having a career in Military Intelligence that stokes their fears about the surveillance state and US warmongering.

That may read like a long-winded and overly pessimistic description of the candidates. What it actually is, is a summary of everything I've seen people posting on Facebook over the past few days.

The day I heard Democrats squabbling over the issue of giving incarcerated prisoners the right to vote - of all fucking things to argue about RIGHT NOW (!) - was the day I knew we were doomed. We are doomed. These candidates are all a mess. Some of them are kinda OK, like Pete, Booker, and Yang (whose chances of getting the nomination are the same as my chances of qualifying for a Formula One race and signing a contract with the Yankees on the same day.) Collectively they are a mess, and by the time they've exhausted all of their energy in the primary, Trump will be ready and all too willing to begin the dirtiest, cruelest, and most-watched political war in history against the Democratic nominee.

We're fucked.
The candidates are all a mess because we have 15 or so candidates and haven't had time to sort them out - that tends to take care of itself over time.

What unfortunately hasn't sorted itself out over time, however, is the ignorance and confusion of the average American voter. This is particularly true of moderates and independent voters, many of whom are economically anxious and aware of the fact that one bad slip and they could join the ranks of the poor, but who simultaneously are just middle class enough to fear any kind of change that might actually strengthen everyone's social safety net. They worry about their economic futures but worry about change even more.

This is why I think that Bernie Sanders, who might very well win the nomination, will run into problems in the general election if he gets that far. But any candidate is going to have a challenge with Trump unless the economy falters because voters don't typically vote against an incumbent when the economy is at least functioning kinda, sorta well. And statistically, the economy now is functioning as well as it has in almost a generation, which may, in voters' minds, lend credence to the idea that a 'bidness' man knows how to manage an economy better than professional politicos.
  #149  
Old 04-29-2019, 09:29 AM
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A Fox News analyst admits that Donald Trump is a criminal.
I don't think it will matter. Trump fans have always understand that he's a crook. If Trump is the GOP nominee, he will win the November election.
  #150  
Old 04-29-2019, 12:37 PM
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A Fox News analyst admits that Donald Trump is a criminal.
I don't think it will matter. Trump fans have always understand that he's a crook. If Trump is the GOP nominee, he will win the November election.
Exactly, which is why I never really completely understood why people believed that the Mueller probe by itself would take him down. That's not to say that he hasn't been hurt by the Mueller investigation - I think his base of staunch, "Trump can do no wrong" supporters has shrunk by 2-3 points, but most people who voted for Trump knew that they were voting for a nasty sonofabitch. Nothing has changed, really.
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