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Old 05-15-2019, 08:02 AM
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2020 Ticket Predictions


Time to commit!

Here’s mine:

Republicans: Trump & Nikki Haley. Mike is no longer needed.

Democrats: Biden & Harris.
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Old 05-15-2019, 08:07 AM
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Trump changing his VP would be too much like admitting he made a mistake. Not going to happen.

On the Democratic side, Biden is the safest bet, though I think he's still under a 50% chance against the field. And he'll likely choose a youngish woman. But I don't think it'll be Harris, nor any of the other folks running for the top seat.
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Old 05-15-2019, 08:24 AM
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I don't have a prediction, but Biden/Harris seems pretty good to me. I don't know much about her other than her performance exposing Barr as a stammering fool, which was impressive.
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Old 05-15-2019, 09:57 AM
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Trump changing his VP would be too much like admitting he made a mistake. Not going to happen. .
Trump has run through so, so many,many others without having an iota of anything resembling “too much like admitting he made a mistake”, what makes you think Mikey P would be any different?

“Mike has done a great job for us, just terrific. We’re so grateful. Nikki’s gonna be fantastic, she’ a real superstar, probably the best Vice President ever. Just wait and see.”

Done deal.
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:33 PM
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Trump probably thinks he does not need Pence to get the religious vote so I can see him dumping Pence.
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:40 PM
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He could put Jane Fonda on the ticket with him and not lose his base. He has a hold on his cult that would be the envy of Jim Jones.
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:46 PM
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Seems FDR was the last president to have different VPs when running for re-election and he had 3 VPs. Garner , Wallace and Truman.
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Old 05-15-2019, 02:15 PM
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Dems: Biden & Warren

Pubs: Donald & Ivakna (For real.) Add the sexy daughter and "family values" and that's all their fans need.

Last edited by Locrian; 05-15-2019 at 02:16 PM.
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Old 05-15-2019, 02:46 PM
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Haley is a smart woman. She managed to have a high ranking position and got out before she has too much Trump stink on her. If she ran for VP she would have to stand there and argue Trump points and not her own. She is set up for a 2024 run.

With this many in the ring it’s really impossible to predict on the D side. I’m thinking Biden/Harris is most likely but that also makes me think it won’t happen. Someone lesser known could very easily emerge from the pack.

So I’m going to put my money on the long shot. Klobuchar/Booker. Who’s giving me odds?
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Old 05-15-2019, 02:48 PM
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R: Nikki Haley
D: Pete Buttigieg

I do not believe that Trump is going to stand again. He can retire undefeated.
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Old 05-16-2019, 01:15 AM
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If the Manchurian Cantaloupe dies or is otherwise removed from office: Pence and McConnell.

I don't think Biden will be the "D" nominee, and I don't even want to speculate as to who might be on the ticket right now.
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Old 05-16-2019, 04:18 AM
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Trump/Pence

Harris/O'Rourke
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Old 05-16-2019, 04:47 AM
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Seems FDR was the last president to have different VPs when running for re-election and he had 3 VPs. Garner , Wallace and Truman.

It wasn't re-election per se, but Ford had dumped Rockefeller.

I've read that if he hadn't Reagan might have been able to take the nomination but that if Rockefeller had been on the ticket Ford would have beat Carter by winning New York. A no win situation for poor Jerry.
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Old 05-16-2019, 07:29 AM
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I think Biden / Harris is about as good a prediction as anyone could make right now. She’d help shore up some of his weaknesses with the democratic base without going too far outside “moderate” territory. And she’d be a lot more likely to take him up on the offer than Stacey Abrams.

Biden’s less of a sure thing than it may appear, though. A lot can happen in the remaining time.

My long shot: Harris / Buttigieg. We need women of color, and we need new blood. But the chances are slim.
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Old 05-16-2019, 11:22 AM
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I really question whether Harris would even want the VP job. Unless the President croaks, it's a much less powerful position than being a US Senator. And she's still young enough to be a credible candidate on her own merits for a few more election cycles.
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Old 05-16-2019, 11:51 AM
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I really question whether Harris would even want the VP job. Unless the President croaks, it's a much less powerful position than being a US Senator. And she's still young enough to be a credible candidate on her own merits for a few more election cycles.
I think she'd be delighted to do it. Biden may well decide one term is all he can do and being the sitting vice president gives you the name recognition and gravitas to blow the rest of the field out of the water in 2024.
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Old 05-16-2019, 11:59 AM
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Well, certainly Biden's advanced age changes the calculus to some extent. But no President ever has actually chosen to voluntarily retire after one term, so I wouldn't count too heavily on Joe being the first. And if they serve two terms, she might be in position to be the frontrunner for 2028, but it's really hard for parties to win three Presidential elections in a row, so that's not quite as good a position as it might appear at first.
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Old 05-16-2019, 12:11 PM
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Well, certainly Biden's advanced age changes the calculus to some extent. But no President ever has actually chosen to voluntarily retire after one term, so I wouldn't count too heavily on Joe being the first. And if they serve two terms, she might be in position to be the frontrunner for 2028, but it's really hard for parties to win three Presidential elections in a row, so that's not quite as good a position as it might appear at first.
Polk quit after one, having set four goals and achieving them. LBJ only ran for one term, seeing the writing on the wall for 1968.
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Old 05-16-2019, 01:14 PM
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Ah yes, how could I have forgotten Polk?! I don't think LBJ's retirement was really "voluntary" in the sense I mean, since he would have run if he'd thought he'd had a chance of winning. But technically, he would qualify. And, indeed, the Dems did proceed to nominate his VP, which seems like kind of a weird decision in retrospect, but then Humphrey did come very close to winning.

Corrections appreciated.
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Old 05-16-2019, 02:03 PM
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R: Nikki Haley
D: Pete Buttigieg
Wow, you really are an alien. It will be neither of those two.

I don't know what the GOP are going to do after Pelosi is dragged into finally impeaching Trump, screaming all the way. [Edit: Could they pick Haley? I guess. Whoever it is will likely be run just to lose to Warren. But it's the conservative movement; it will probably be a 'white man.']

The Democratic ticket and eventual winners will be Elizabeth Warren and a another, younger woman. Warren/Harris looks pretty good on a poster, but Gabbard might be a better pick.

Last edited by foolsguinea; 05-16-2019 at 02:07 PM.
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Old 05-16-2019, 02:32 PM
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I predict that the race will most likely come down to Biden, Sanders, and the winner, who will successfully draw a contrast with the lecherous Wall Street tool on her right and the deranged Bolshevik on her left. Despite her polls not looking so good lately, I still think Kamala Harris is in the best position to be that candidate. I have no idea who she should choose for VP; that decision can and should be put off until it's clearer where her demographic strengths and weaknesses are.

Oh, it's "time to commit?". Fine. Harris-Bullock.
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Old 05-16-2019, 03:50 PM
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This thread is rather silly.

What kind of correct complete Ticket predictions did anyone make for either party in May of 2015?
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Old 05-16-2019, 06:12 PM
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Wow, you really are an alien.
This is not okay. Knock off the personal commentary.

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Old 05-19-2019, 08:30 AM
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LOL - Pence/McConnel - conjures up visions of a Far Side cartoon.

The best ticket depends on the competition. The Republicans can dump Donald by supporting impeachment and then blaming the Dems for Trumps demise. That would clear the way for the white knight Nikki Haley.

So:

Haley/Kasich - Warren/Booker

Trump/Martinez - Biden/Harris
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Old 05-19-2019, 08:35 AM
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LOL - Pence/McConnel - conjures up visions of a Far Side cartoon.

The best ticket depends on the competition. The Republicans can dump Donald by supporting impeachment and then blaming the Dems for Trumps demise. That would clear the way for the white knight Nikki Haley.

So:

Haley/Kasich - Warren/Booker

Trump/Martinez - Biden/Harris
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Old 05-19-2019, 10:33 AM
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This thread is rather silly.

What kind of correct complete Ticket predictions did anyone make for either party in May of 2015?
Ok, see you in November 2020. No need to speculate.

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Originally Posted by foolsguinea View Post
I don't know what the GOP are going to do after Pelosi is dragged into finally impeaching Trump, screaming all the way. [Edit: Could they pick Haley? I guess. Whoever it is will likely be run just to lose to Warren. But it's the conservative movement; it will probably be a 'white man.']

The Democratic ticket and eventual winners will be Elizabeth Warren and a another, younger woman. Warren/Harris looks pretty good on a poster, but Gabbard might be a better pick.
It doesn’t matter what Pelosi does. An impeachment by the house will do nothing to get him off the ticket. Something much bigger that isn’t in the public eye yet will have to come out before he’s actually removed.

I don’t know if the calculus they use to form the optimal ticket actually works but there is no way that the Democrats Will have a ticket with two women on it. Zero chance. I’m thinking it’s close to 100% that one woman will be on it but not two.

Last edited by Loach; 05-19-2019 at 10:34 AM.
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Old 05-19-2019, 03:12 PM
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Ok, see you in November 2020. No need to speculate.
It's fun, but quite a bit too far ahead, that's all.

Who predicted Trump/Pence in May of '15? Or Obama/Biden in may of '07?

This line of thinking can skew who people support and work for. Not that I want a Democrat to win, as much as I dislike Trump.
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Old 05-19-2019, 03:24 PM
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Haley has so far avoided the Trump stench; she will not start now. Trump/Pence v. Biden/Klobuchar is my pick FWIW (which isn't much).
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Old 05-19-2019, 03:37 PM
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It's fun, but quite a bit too far ahead, that's all.

Who predicted Trump/Pence in May of '15? Or Obama/Biden in may of '07?

This line of thinking can skew who people support and work for. Not that I want a Democrat to win, as much as I dislike Trump.
Or Bill Clinton. I have no doubt things will shake out in unpredictable ways in the next two years which is why I’m looking outside the box. I’m really hoping for someone different and younger then the top three.

Barring any outside force (health, high crimes) I would be totally shocked if Trump voluntarily leaves the ticket or dumps Pence.
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Old 05-19-2019, 06:02 PM
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I’m really hoping for someone different and younger then the top three..
Democrats can't do different. "Raise taxes, ban guns, blah blah blah blah" is all they know. And the Blue Dogs are irrelevant and almost completely extinct.

As much as I dislike Trump personally, and am furious over his betrayal to gun owners, his policies are working.

Plus, I am thoroughly enjoying the chaos that follows him. "May you live in interesting times" is a blessing, not a curse IMHO.
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Old 05-19-2019, 08:27 PM
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Biden-Baldwin

Trump-Pence

Of course it so early as to be wildly speculative, especially on the D side, but that's why it is fun!

FWIW Harris is apparently a bit miffed about the talk of her as a potential Biden VP ... and I can't blame her. Still it's just filler until the debates start and we have more to talk about.
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Old 05-20-2019, 10:25 PM
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Trump/Pence

Buttigieg/?
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Old 05-21-2019, 05:34 AM
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As much as I dislike Trump personally, and am furious over his betrayal to gun owners, his policies are working.
What policies of his are working?
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Old 05-21-2019, 08:22 AM
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Democrats can't do different. "Raise taxes, ban guns, blah blah blah blah" is all they know....

As much as I dislike Trump personally, and am furious over his betrayal to gun owners, his policies are working.
Well, at least somebody has the pulse of public sentiment in that Once-great Land. GUNS!! Guns are all that matter! GUNS GUNS GUNS!!

Yours would be, by far, the most laughably inane politics in the entire world ... if the stakes weren't as serious as a heart attack.
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Old 05-21-2019, 09:42 AM
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As much as I dislike Trump personally, and am furious over his betrayal to gun owners, his policies are working.
Ok, I'll bite. How did he betray gun owners? (Is this about bump stocks?)
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Old 05-22-2019, 07:45 AM
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Haley has so far avoided the Trump stench; she will not start now. Trump/Pence v. Biden/Klobuchar is my pick FWIW (which isn't much).
Haley’s avoidance of being sullied will be the very thing that draws her in. She’ll figure she can avoid it again. And she’ll be right. By virtue of irrelevance VP-dom is pretty antiseptic. Trump no longer needs Pence to shore up his bona fides with the Christian Right. They have totally handed Trump their collective soul because judges. He now needs to give the Establishmentarians a butt nudge to bother going to the polls. Haley would do that.
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Old 05-22-2019, 10:24 AM
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Quoth Thing Fish:

I really question whether Harris would even want the VP job. Unless the President croaks, it's a much less powerful position than being a US Senator.
How do you figure? The Vice President has exactly as much voting power in the Senate as any Senator does, they have more procedural power if they choose to use it, and they have a more visible bully pulpit. And that's in addition to whatever involvement in the executive branch the President chooses to give them.
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Old 05-22-2019, 10:40 AM
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How do you figure? The Vice President has exactly as much voting power in the Senate as any Senator does, they have more procedural power if they choose to use it, and they have a more visible bully pulpit. And that's in addition to whatever involvement in the executive branch the President chooses to give them.
Even LBJ left a powerful post in the Senate to become VP.
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Old 05-22-2019, 11:07 AM
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I don't have a prediction, but Biden/Harris seems pretty good to me. I don't know much about her other than her performance exposing Barr as a stammering fool, which was impressive.
Not a Harris fan, but she would balance Biden nicely, I admit.


Biden would likely choose a woman in a state where he needs support, not Harris however. Harris is likely angling for AG.
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Old 05-22-2019, 11:14 AM
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Democrats can't do different. "Raise taxes, ban guns, blah blah blah blah" is all they know. And the Blue Dogs are irrelevant and almost completely extinct.

As much as I dislike Trump personally, and am furious over his betrayal to gun owners, his policies are working.

Plus, I am thoroughly enjoying the chaos that follows him. "May you live in interesting times" is a blessing, not a curse IMHO.
The GOP is the "borrow and spend' party, then blame the necessary taxes on the Dems. And the GOP betrayed the middle class, note their middle class tax cuts have become a tax increase for most middle class workers.

Other than Booker and Harris, not many Dem candidates want to ban guns. Even Harris's official position is not very radical.

Trump was NEVER pro-gun. Yes, he put Gorsuch on the court, but other than that, Trump is not a friend to gun owners, never has been. Trump supported the same sort of mild gun control as the mainstream Dems- banning "assault weapons" and other mild controls.

Yeah, nuke war is not the kind of chaos most of us will enjoy.
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Old 05-22-2019, 11:30 AM
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How do you figure? The Vice President has exactly as much voting power in the Senate as any Senator does, they have more procedural power if they choose to use it, and they have a more visible bully pulpit. And that's in addition to whatever involvement in the executive branch the President chooses to give them.
Gotta quibble on this one- the VP can only vote in the event of a tie. You could argue that when he does vote, it's the only one the matters but in practice he gets very few opportunities to vote.

I think Harris should and will accept the VP slot. I don't think Biden will run for a second term and she would be the heir apparent.
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Old 05-22-2019, 12:49 PM
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So suppose we changed things to let the VP vote in every vote. How would the result be at all different from what it is now? In terms of outcomes, it's no different, which means that we can only compare in the intangibles of the positions. And on the intangibles, VP is a much higher position than Senator.
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Old 05-22-2019, 01:14 PM
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Gotta quibble on this one- the VP can only vote in the event of a tie. You could argue that when he does vote, it's the only one the matters but in practice he gets very few opportunities to vote.
I wondered about this so checked the Wikipedia page.

It shows that Joe Biden never, not once, broke a tie vote when he was Vice Pres. This may be due, in large part, to the 60% cloture rule — Ties don't occur on cloture votes. The voting for Obamacare was VERY close, but the Ds weren't trying for 51% — they needed 60% so Biden's vote was useless. LBJ and Dan Quayle are among other V.P.'s who never cast a tie-breaking vote.

Contrast this with Mike Pence who has cast 13 tie-breaking votes, more than any other Vice President since Schuyler Colfax almost 150 years ago! I guess I was right when I wrote last year, it takes 51% of the votes to pass an R Senate, but 60% to pass a D Senate.

And Pence's record of 13 tie-breakers is set with less than 2½ years in office. The record for the entire 20th century was 9 tie-breakers, set by Woodrow Wilson's 8-year Vice President.

I still remember when Al Gore broke the tie and got the Deficit Reduction Act passed. Since the deficit reduction required a tax hike, they only wanted 50 Senators to "walk the plank;" if Al Gore did not need to break a tie it would have shown miscalculation. But Al Gore broke only 4 ties in 8 years; and two of the ties were on the Deficit Reduction Act.
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Old 05-22-2019, 05:07 PM
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Ah, right, I forgot that Senators count for cloture, but not the VP. Yeah, that's a relevant advantage of a Senator, then. Though it would be irrelevant if we were to finally get rid of that stupid rule.
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Old 05-22-2019, 05:57 PM
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Trump was NEVER pro-gun.
Yes, I know that. And I posted it long ago. And I rolled my eyes as he stood in front of the NRA convention and babbled that he'd never betray gun owners rights.

Then the moment something happened he started in about raising the age to buy rifles, bans on certain firearms, and bans on pieces of plastic.

The NRA rolled over and played dead!

It's not the ban itself on bump stocks that is tyrannical. It's the way in which they were banned. For over a decade the BATF issued decrees that the stocks weren't machine guns, didn't turn a gun into a machine gun, and were perfectly legal. Then
Trump waves his hand and suddenly they are illegal, sans any law passed by Congress. That is not the way laws are supposed to be enacted. Hundreds of thousands of American citizens were forced to surrender or destroy their previously lawfully owned property with no due process and no compensation, or be guilty of a serious federal offense.

The precedent itself should be frightening regardless of your opinion of the legality of bump stocks.

Last edited by pkbites; 05-22-2019 at 06:00 PM.
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Old 05-22-2019, 09:36 PM
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Since I really have no clue who Beto O'Rourke will pick as his running mate, I'm afraid I cannot answer the OP completely. I will say though that whomever he picks will be the next Vice President of the United States. Yes, I went there.
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Old 05-25-2019, 08:45 PM
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I do not know. If I had to vote right now, I would not consider myself well-informed. That said, Pete Buttigieg looks like an ideal pick for Veep.
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Old 05-25-2019, 10:00 PM
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I can see him dumping Pence, but I think it would dumb. I can't stand the sonofabitch's fake piety, but if I were looking at the strength of Pence, I'd say he's been pretty much a stalwart. He's been relatively controversy free and even managed to stay out of the Russia investigation for the most part. Part of being a good vice president is knowing how to be a largely invisible but tough wing man for the president. Pence has been that.

The only justification for dumping pence is if Trump believes he's truly solid with the evangelical crowd and that it's safe for him to go out and create some new excitement and enthusiasm with a new VP. That would be risky, especially with polls already showing he's going to be in a dogfight. Maybe he dumps Pence for another hardcore conservative in a rust belt state like Rick Santorum.
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Old 05-25-2019, 10:05 PM
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There is no reason whatsoever why he would dump Pence or why any incumbent would dump the previous vice president. How did this even come up in this discussion?
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:29 PM
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Since I’m in a state where the primary never means anything, threads like this are closest I’ll get to having a say about who the candidates are.
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