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Old 05-22-2019, 08:40 PM
Hari Seldon is offline
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Trump attacks Iran Oct. 1, 2020; effect on election?


The thread title is my question.
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Old 05-22-2019, 08:48 PM
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Unless it is a response to Iran dropping missiles on Jerusalem, I don't think anyone outside the Deplorable 30% would support another war in the Middle East.

Would this be before or after the invasion of Venezuela?
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Old 05-22-2019, 09:33 PM
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Like any speculative question about the future, the only answer I can give is "it depends".

Has Iran done something that in the mind of the majority of Americans "justifies" a response? Has the Trump administration made a case for action in the weeks/months prior? Is the attack a cruise missile/air attack on nuke sites, or a full-fledged invasion of the country? What is the mood of the nation in regards to trump 15 months from now?

All of those factors are the big unknowns, and while you can plug speculations into them, the overall effect depends on so many factors it is not possible to give an outright answer.

IMHO as always. YMMV.
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Old 05-23-2019, 10:53 AM
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With respect, I think the more fundamental question is what will Trump do in October 2020.

He may need to create a distraction as a minimum but would also, presumably, be looking to bolster his support.

While this type of thing is old, the fear is that Trump will take it to a new level and engender effects that extend well beyond the usual and will spill over into other aspects of life. His use of 'National Security Interests' as pretext and justification to violate Constitutional and governmental norms threatens to make him into an elected tyrant.

Worse, all this comes at a time of huge social and technological change, and most especially as the rate of change seems almost discontinuous at times.

The whole 'system' - the way of life we took for granted in 'the West' and which inspired so many - now seems unstable. There are too many disruptive things happening too fast in too many places. I wonder if a lot of Europeans in the 30's had a similar deep uneasiness.
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Old 05-23-2019, 02:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KarlGauss View Post
With respect, I think the more fundamental question is what will Trump do in October 2020.

He may need to create a distraction as a minimum but would also, presumably, be looking to bolster his support.

While this type of thing is old, the fear is that Trump will take it to a new level and engender effects that extend well beyond the usual and will spill over into other aspects of life. His use of 'National Security Interests' as pretext and justification to violate Constitutional and governmental norms threatens to make him into an elected tyrant....
I expect another 'scare convoy" "invading" the USA, at the very least.
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Old 05-23-2019, 04:15 PM
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If done at the last minute and coupled with a bunch of wild claims that cannot be checked out thoroughly before election time, it will give all those Republicans just the excuse they need to vote the asshole back in. No matter how much harm he does, all they need is the slimmest of reasons to excuse all that and be "winners" again.
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Old 05-23-2019, 05:29 PM
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If done at the last minute and coupled with a bunch of wild claims that cannot be checked out thoroughly before election time, it will give all those Republicans just the excuse they need to vote the asshole back in. No matter how much harm he does, all they need is the slimmest of reasons to excuse all that and be "winners" again.
It doesn't matter if Trump's claims are lies - it only matters if his base believes them.

On a recent visit to America, I had a long trip with a taxi driver who supported Trump.
He was pleasant and polite - he just didn't believe anything I said about his 'wonderful' President.
He stated that Hillary Clinton was guilty of at least 15 felonies and the only reason that she hadn't been locked up was that Bill Clinton had blocked all law enforcement.
He stated that the 'socialist' media told lies about Trump all the time.
He asked me who was the greatest President of all time. He said it was a tie between Lincoln and Trump.
When I proposed Obama, he nearly swerved off the road!
I said Obama had won a Nobel Prize. He said that was given by a socialist country (you can see a theme here.)
There were many more examples, but basically he massively admired Trump and refused to believe anything bad about him.
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