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Old 05-28-2019, 11:42 AM
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Democratic Primary World Cup


A few months ago we had a fun March Madness Style set of polls to see how the different candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination faired here. I'd like to run something similar, but this time in the style of the World Cup, which will be starting up in a couple weeks. This thread will be the main thread to collect results and for commentary. Match-up polls will be held as separate threads.

Polling Question:
If you were to vote in the Democratic Party presidential primary today with only these two candidates as options, who would you vote for?
Candidate X
Candidate Y
Abstain

For seeding, I am using the ordering from PredictIt as an estimate of the likelihood of each candidate winning the nomination. The seeding will be
1. Joe Biden
2. Bernie Sanders
3. Pete Buttigieg
4. Kamala Harris
5. Elizabeth Warren
6. Andrew Yang
7. Cory Booker
8. Beto O’Rourke
9. Tulsi Gabbard
10. Amy Klobuchar
11. Steve Bullock
12. Kirsten Gillibrand
13. Julian Castro
14. John Hickenlooper
15. Jay Inslee
16. John Delaney

Following the World Cup method of round-robin group play before single elimination, the seeded groups are
Group A
1. Joe Biden
8. Beto O’Rourke
9. Tulsi Gabbard
16. John Delaney

Group B
2. Bernie Sanders
7. Cory Booker
10. Amy Klobuchar
15. Jay Inslee

Group C
3. Pete Buttigieg
6. Andrew Yang
11. Steve Bullock
14. John Hickenlooper

Group D
4. Kamala Harris
5. Elizabeth Warren
12. Kirsten Gillibrand
13. Julian Castro

Each candidate will have a match-up against every other group member.

First Round Match-ups
1 vs 16: Joe Biden vs John Delaney
8 vs 9: Beto O’Rourke vs Tulsi Gabbard
2 vs 15: Bernie Sanders vs Jay Inslee
7 vs 10: Cory Booker vs Amy Klobuchar
3 vs 14: Pete Buttigieg vs John Hickenlooper
6 vs 11: Andrew Yang vs Steve Bullock
4 vs 13: Kamala Harris vs Julian Castro
5 vs 12: Elizabeth Warren vs Kirsten Gillibrand

Second Round Match-ups
1 vs 9: Joe Biden vs Tulsi Gabbard
8 vs 16: Beto O’Rourke vs John Delaney
2 vs 10: Bernie Sanders vs Amy Klobuchar
7 vs 15: Cory Booker vs Jay Inslee
3 vs 11: Pete Buttigieg vs Steve Bullock
6 vs 14: Andrew Yang vs John Hickenlooper
4 vs 12: Kamala Harris vs Kirsten Gillibrand
5 vs 13: Elizabeth Warren vs Julian Castro

Third Round Match-ups
1 vs 8: Joe Biden vs Beto O’Rourke
9 vs 16: Tulsi Gabbard vs John Delaney
2 vs 7: Bernie Sanders vs Cory Booker
10 vs 15: Amy Klobuchar vs Jay Inslee
3 vs 6: Pete Buttigieg vs Andrew Yang
11 vs 14: Steve Bullock vs John Hickenlooper
4 vs 5: Kamala Harris vs Elizabeth Warren
12 vs 13: Kirsten Gillibrand vs Julian Castro

Within each group, candidates will be ranked by the number of match-ups won. Tie-breaker will be most votes totalled over all match-ups. The winner and runner-up of each group will advance to the single-elimination stage.

Fourth Round Match-ups
Group-A-Winner vs Group-B-Runner-Up
Group-B-Winner vs Group-A-Runner-Up
Group-C-Winner vs Group-D-Runner-Up
Group-D-Winner vs Group-C-Runner-Up

Fifth Round Match-ups
(Winner of AW vs BR) vs (Winner of DW vs CR)
(Winner of BW vs AR) vs (Winner of CW vs DR)

Sixth Round Match
Winners of Fifth Round

I will wait to start the match-ups until later this week when there's been time for commentary and approval from the forum's moderation. While there are problems with any type of polling system, I think this one has some interesting match-ups, while giving each candidate a fair shot.
  #2  
Old 05-28-2019, 11:43 AM
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I'm voting Andrew Yang and Kirstin Gilibrand.


Edit: Oh OK I see. We're supposed to vote in another thread later?

Last edited by Velocity; 05-28-2019 at 11:44 AM.
  #3  
Old 05-28-2019, 11:51 AM
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Which World Cup is starting soon? I know the Cricket World Cup starts soon, but it doesn’t use the same format as does football.
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  #4  
Old 05-28-2019, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by dalej42 View Post
Which World Cup is starting soon? I know the Cricket World Cup starts soon, but it doesn’t use the same format as does football.
Women's World Cup (football).

Last edited by El_Kabong; 05-28-2019 at 12:12 PM.
  #5  
Old 05-28-2019, 12:34 PM
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Moderating


This seems cool. Go forth and be merry.

[/moderating]
  #6  
Old 05-28-2019, 12:37 PM
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Interesting idea. Is there any way to go forward with it that won't result in dozens of new threads being started in the Elections forum in a very short time? I found that to be a big nuisance with the previous try.
  #7  
Old 05-28-2019, 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
Interesting idea. Is there any way to go forward with it that won't result in dozens of new threads being started in the Elections forum in a very short time? I found that to be a big nuisance with the previous try.
He could start a poll with 32 options, paired by pair, allowing everyone to select multiple options. Everyone on their honor not to cheat.
  #8  
Old 05-28-2019, 01:48 PM
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I'll back up Bone on this and say, "Go to it".

I'll likely run the Election thing next year again. But this one looks like a chore. Two things I say to that:

1. Better you than me.
2. Thanks for taking this on. We all appreciate it.
  #9  
Old 05-28-2019, 02:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
He could start a poll with 32 options, paired by pair, allowing everyone to select multiple options. Everyone on their honor not to cheat.
Sounds good. If it doesn't work, then it could be started again with a different method.
  #10  
Old 05-28-2019, 02:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pleonast View Post
A few months ago we had a fun March Madness Style set of polls to see how the different candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination faired here. I...
No, it wasnt fun nor fair.
  #11  
Old 05-28-2019, 03:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
He could start a poll with 32 options, paired by pair, allowing everyone to select multiple options. Everyone on their honor not to cheat.
I considered that, but I see two problems. First, it dilutes the whole match up of one on one. Second, it’s too easy for an honest mistake. I’m willing to run the polls. They’ll fall of the front page quickly.
  #12  
Old 05-28-2019, 03:47 PM
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The Moderator Speaks


Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
No, it wasnt fun nor fair.
That’s enough threadshitting, Deth. There are other people in the world besides yourself.
  #14  
Old 05-30-2019, 10:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
He could start a poll with 32 options, paired by pair, allowing everyone to select multiple options. Everyone on their honor not to cheat.
Yabbut, then they'd have to move the whole shootin' match over to the Game Room...
  #15  
Old 05-30-2019, 02:27 PM
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{Yawn} Just as with the actual World Cup these days, wake me up when we get to the Final.
  #16  
Old 05-30-2019, 08:54 PM
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Can this contest legitimately be called a "World Cup" if it only has American participants? Surely it should be a "World Series", or "World Series Cup", or similar?
  #17  
Old 05-31-2019, 08:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Walken After Midnight View Post
Can this contest legitimately be called a "World Cup" if it only has American participants? Surely it should be a "World Series", or "World Series Cup", or similar?
It is so named because the tournament format is styled after the Football World Cup that is going to be starting in about a week.
  #18  
Old 05-31-2019, 11:35 AM
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Responding to complaints raised here, maybe for future rounds it would be better to have a single thread for each round. Where the polls would be
1) Joe Biden over John Delaney
2) John Delaney over Joe Biden
3) Beto O’Rourke over Tulsi Gabbard
4) Tulsi Gabbard over Beto O’Rourke
etc.

Allowing multiple votes.

This would serve the same purpose but not dominate the entire forum through three rounds of round-robin and a total of 31 threads.
  #19  
Old 06-03-2019, 04:52 PM
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First Round Results

Group A
Joe Biden over John Delaney 43-11
Beto O’Rourke over Tulsi Gabbard 55-15

Group B
Jay Inslee over Bernie Sanders 38-23
Amy Klobuchar over Cory Booker 36-26

Group C
Pete Buttigieg over John Hickenlooper 54-23
Steve Bullock over Andrew Yang 34-15

Group D
Kamala Harris over Julian Castro 51-10
Elizabeth Warren over Kirsten Gillibrand 51-13


Standings

Group A
1. Beto O’Rourke, 1-0 matches, 55 votes total
2. Joe Biden, 1-0, 43
3. Tulsi Gabbard, 0-1, 15
4. John Delaney, 0-1, 11

Group B
1. Jay Inslee, 1-0 matches, 38 votes total
2. Amy Klobuchar, 1-0, 36
3. Cory Booker, 0-1, 26
4. Bernie Sanders, 0-1, 23

Group C
1. Pete Buttigieg, 1-0 matches, 54 votes total
2. Steve Bullock, 1-0, 34
3. John Hickenlooper, 0-1, 23
4. Andrew Yang, 0-1, 15

Group D
1T. Elizabeth Warren, 1-0 matches, 51 votes total
1T. Kamala Harris, 1-0, 51
3. Kirsten Gillibrand, 0-1, 13
4. Julian Castro, 0-1, 10
  #20  
Old 06-03-2019, 05:05 PM
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Combined Second Round.

If this is comprehensible, I'll stick with the combined format. Otherwise back to the individual polls.
  #21  
Old 06-07-2019, 05:06 PM
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Second Round Results

Group A
Joe Biden over Tulsi Gabbard 49-7
Beto O’Rourke over John Delaney 43-12

Group B
Amy Klobuchar over Bernie Sanders 36-22
Cory Booker over Jay Inslee 30-24

Group C
Pete Buttigieg over Steve Bullock 43-13
John Hickenlooper over Andrew Yang 39-15

Group D
Kamala Harris over Kirsten Gillibrand 46-11
Elizabeth Warren over Julian Castro 45-12


Standings

Group A
1. Beto O’Rourke, 2-0 matches, 98 votes total
2. Joe Biden, 2-0, 92
3. John Delaney, 0-2, 23
4. Tulsi Gabbard, 0-2, 22

Group B
1. Amy Klobuchar, 2-0 matches, 72 votes total
2. Jay Inslee, 1-1, 62
3. Cory Booker, 1-1, 56
4. Bernie Sanders, 0-2, 45

Group C
1. Pete Buttigieg, 2-0 matches, 97 votes total
2. John Hickenlooper, 1-1, 62
3. Steve Bullock, 1-1, 47
4. Andrew Yang, 0-2, 30

Group D
1. Kamala Harris, 2-0 matches, 97 votes total
2. Elizabeth Warren, 2-0, 96
3. Kirsten Gillibrand, 0-2, 24
4. Julian Castro, 0-2, 22
  #22  
Old 06-07-2019, 05:12 PM
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The Third Round is the last of the group stage. After this, the top two of each group will go into the single elimination stage.
  #23  
Old 06-09-2019, 10:31 AM
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So who's in and who's out?

In the A and D groups, we've got two candidates each at 2-0, and the other two at 0-2. Nothing in the last round can change who's in the top 2, so Biden, Beto, Harris, and Warren all move on.

In group C, Buttigieg is trouncing Yang, so he'll finish this round 3-0 and move on. Meanwhile, Hickenlooper and Bullock are dueling for second place, with Hickenlooper currently ahead 16-10. Unless Bullock overtakes him, he'll be the other group C survivor.

Group B is interesting, because we could have Sanders at 0-3 and everyone else at 2-1, or Klobuchar at 3-0 and everyone else at 1-2, both of which would result in tiebreakers coming into play.

What we know is that Klobuchar's 16-point edge over Booker going into this round, and Inslee's 17-point edge over Sanders, mean that Klobuchar is almost certainly in, and Sanders is almost certainly out, even should they find themselves in a 3-way tie.

So the last slot comes down to Inslee v. Booker, who aren't playing each other. So if one wins and the other loses, that would settle it. Inslee's currently up by 6 over Klobuchar, while Booker's only up by 1 over Sanders, so chances that Booker will win while Inslee loses are looking kinda slim.

And if they have the same W-L record, Inslee went into this round with 6 more points than Booker, and he's +2 over Booker in this round, so it would take quite a push for Booker to knock Inslee off. So while it's not a done deal, Inslee's got the inside track for that last slot.
  #24  
Old 06-11-2019, 05:13 PM
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Third Round Results

Group A
Joe Biden over Beto O’Rourke 32-23
John Delaney over Tulsi Gabbard 39-12

Group B
Cory Booker over Bernie Sanders 33-23
Jay Inslee over Amy Klobuchar 29-25

Group C
Pete Buttigieg over Andrew Yang 49-5
John Hickenlooper over Steve Bullock 34-14

Group D
Elizabeth Warren over Kamala Harris 30-25
Kirsten Gillibrand over Julian Castro 29-24



Standings

Group A
1. Joe Biden, 3-0 matches, 124 votes total
2. Beto O’Rourke, 2-1, 121
3. John Delaney, 1-2, 62
4. Tulsi Gabbard, 0-3, 34

Group B
1. Amy Klobuchar, 2-1 matches, 97 votes total
2. Jay Inslee, 2-1, 91
3. Cory Booker, 2-1, 89
4. Bernie Sanders, 0-3, 68

Group C
1. Pete Buttigieg, 3-0 matches, 146 votes total
2. John Hickenlooper, 2-1, 96
3. Steve Bullock, 1-2, 61
4. Andrew Yang, 0-3, 35

Group D
1. Elizabeth Warren, 3-0 matches, 126 votes total
2. Kamala Harris, 2-1, 122
3. Kirsten Gillibrand, 1-2, 53
4. Julian Castro, 0-3, 46
  #25  
Old 06-11-2019, 05:17 PM
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We now begin the single elimination phase, seeded based on the group phase results. Quarter-final poll is here.
  #26  
Old 06-12-2019, 08:22 AM
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I'm surprised Sanders went 0-3. I know there are a lot of folks who dislike him, but there are a lot who like him, too. I guess he's just polarizing enough that everyone had him at (or close to) either first place or last place, and the last-placers were more numerous in the polls.
  #27  
Old 06-12-2019, 09:34 AM
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Yes. The one-vs-one format is not kind to polarizing candidates, who are first or last for most voters, as many people will vote against them. But the format is very helpful to those who are second or third choice for many people, because they will win most match-ups.

On the other hand, imagine a tournament format where the whole list is voted on at once. After each round, the bottom half of the candidate list is eliminated. The polarizing candidate will do well with dedicated support, at least until the opposition consolidates (if it happens at all).

And using approval voting or ranked voting can change things as well.
  #28  
Old 06-15-2019, 06:13 PM
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Quarter-Final Results

Joe Biden over Jay Inslee 35-25
Elizabeth Warren over John Hickenlooper 41-19
Kamala Harris over Pete Buttigieg 37-21
Amy Klobuchar over Beto O’Rourke 41-18
  #29  
Old 06-15-2019, 08:08 PM
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The semi-final poll is open.
  #30  
Old Yesterday, 07:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pleonast View Post
[Argument Clinic]
No, it isn't.
[/Argument Clinic]
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