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  #201  
Old 06-28-2019, 06:21 PM
Scylla is offline
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Originally Posted by Poysyn View Post
Interesting - that IS what the MeToo movement is about. Victims are ďmadder than hell and they are not going to take it anymoreĒ, so no, they are not always reporting to police, who have (historically) treated these people very, very badly, they are telling their stories how THEY want to - not how other people may wish. They are being loud, and using platforms available to them to be loud.

This is grabbing the bull by the horns, do you really not see that at all?

I like you a lot, but Iím kind of against this. The whole climbing up about of the abyss of chaos and anarchy, and living as a Society of civilized human beings who may disagree with disapprove of and conflict with each other without killing each other and being the better because of it depends on the societal compact of not taking things into your own hands.
  #202  
Old 06-28-2019, 06:21 PM
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Her story provides no evidence. It’s just a story. No evidence is necessary to refute it.
This is incredibly frustrating, and not at all uncommon.

Her story IS evidence. The details she tells - the location in a store, the context of the conversation, what actually happened - is evidence. People all the time get convicted of crimes based on people saying they happened when other people believe them.

Yes, you need to judge credibility. Did she ever actually meet him (yes; there's a photo)? Are there any contemporary accounts (yes, she told two people)? Is it within the realm of possibilities (yes, he has a reputation, in part of his own making, of imposing his will on women without their consent)?

But all of that goes to the weight of the evidence. The fact is: Her story IS evidence.

Last edited by Moriarty; 06-28-2019 at 06:23 PM.
  #203  
Old 06-28-2019, 06:29 PM
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Right, we donít treat any other crime that way, that if the victim or witness doesnít have some unusually high level of corroboration then ēís obligated to never say anything to besmirch the reputation of the perpetrator. But accusing a man, particularly a powerful man, of sexual assault is somehow so rare and unbelievable that the silence of the victim is the paramount consideration.

Remember, to find someone liable for defamation, you have to prove ēís lying. Why doesnít that apply to Trumpís comments?
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  #204  
Old 06-28-2019, 06:30 PM
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Her story is evidence, in and of itself.
Ok. So five years or so ago you raped me.

There you go my accusation against you has all the evidence of the accusation against Trump.

Trumpís story is that he didnít do it. Thatís Evidence. It is equal to hers. So they cancel out.

But wait! She told two friends. That puts the evidence back on her side.

Uh oh! Trump told Melania, and Don Jr. that he didnít do it. Now itís a tie again.

You think this is how evidence works?

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And in the vast majority of rape cases thatís all there will ever be.
Ridiculously untrue. There is hair, DNA, phone records, GPS data, security cams, witnesses, and all other types of potential evidence.

Some of this degraded over time which is why contemporaneous reporting is so important.
  #205  
Old 06-28-2019, 06:30 PM
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I like you a lot, but Iím kind of against this. The whole climbing up about of the abyss of chaos and anarchy, and living as a Society of civilized human beings who may disagree with disapprove of and conflict with each other without killing each other and being the better because of it depends on the societal compact of not taking things into your own hands.
The normal channels are failing these women. So they're speaking out. They're not organizing vigilante squads, or lynching menfolk, or anything like that. They're just telling their stories, loudly and to the media.

That should be welcomed, not denigrated. There's no other option for so many of these women, since law enforcement has so often failed.
  #206  
Old 06-28-2019, 06:40 PM
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Ok. So five years or so ago you raped me.

There you go my accusation against you has all the evidence of the accusation against Trump.

Trumpís story is that he didnít do it. Thatís Evidence. It is equal to hers. So they cancel out.

But wait! She told two friends. That puts the evidence back on her side.

Uh oh! Trump told Melania, and Don Jr. that he didnít do it. Now itís a tie again.

You think this is how evidence works?
Despite your snark, yes, that is sort of how evidence works.

One side presents their story. The other side presents their story. Those deciding now have to decide who to believe.

How? No, not with "ties", but with considering the weight of that evidence.

So, she told two people it happened, but he told two people it didn't. What to do? Perhaps we should weigh the strength of those two stories. Realizing you are being facetious, if he really presented Don Jr and Melania as his two advocates, it should fail in a test of weight. Why? Because her stories were contemporaneous; he hadn't met Melania at the time, and Don Jr. would have been about ten. So, based on your hypo, he made his denials decades after the fact. That's not a tie; his evidence is weaker than hers.

See, this is how evidence works.
  #207  
Old 06-28-2019, 06:50 PM
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Ok. So five years or so ago you raped me.

There you go my accusation against you has all the evidence of the accusation against Trump.

Trumpís story is that he didnít do it. Thatís Evidence. It is equal to hers. So they cancel out.

But wait! She told two friends. That puts the evidence back on her side.

Uh oh! Trump told Melania, and Don Jr. that he didnít do it. Now itís a tie again.

You think this is how evidence works?



Ridiculously untrue. There is hair, DNA, phone records, GPS data, security cams, witnesses, and all other types of potential evidence.

Some of this degraded over time which is why contemporaneous reporting is so important.
Just FYI you don't know what you're talking about. Does that matter at all, or no?
  #208  
Old 06-28-2019, 06:59 PM
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I like you a lot, but Iím kind of against this. The whole climbing up about of the abyss of chaos and anarchy, and living as a Society of civilized human beings who may disagree with disapprove of and conflict with each other without killing each other and being the better because of it depends on the societal compact of not taking things into your own hands.
Oh, please. Woman are not running wild in the streets bashing in men's heads with baseball bats. They have merely stopped being silent in the face of assault and harassment.

Why are some men so determined to embarrass all other men?
  #209  
Old 06-28-2019, 07:14 PM
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The normal channels are failing these women. So they're speaking out. They're not organizing vigilante squads, or lynching menfolk, or anything like that. They're just telling their stories, loudly and to the media.

That should be welcomed, not denigrated. There's no other option for so many of these women, since law enforcement has so often failed.
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
The normal channels are failing these women. So they're speaking out. They're not organizing vigilante squads, or lynching menfolk, or anything like that. They're just telling their stories, loudly and to the media.

That should be welcomed, not denigrated. There's no other option for so many of these women, since law enforcement has so often failed.
Which is all well and good, except thatís not really the end of it. Now this group can tell their stories and do reputational damage to those they accuse, get them fired, make them lose jobs, pressure advertisers. Now there is a weapon that can be used outside of due process to go after anyone they want. Itís not like their hiding that this is going on or we are speculating about it. SJWs are doing just this openly in a variety of ways.

Itís a dangerous thing, and itís already being abused.

Nope: Societal compact. Innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. Due process. If somebody is unwilling to engage the justice system, they donít have my support. The fact that it sometimes lets some people down and is imperfect is not an excuse not to start there.


You seem like a pretty woke guy, itís not like you donít already know this is going on. Why dance around it?
  #210  
Old 06-28-2019, 07:33 PM
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Which is all well and good, except thatís not really the end of it. Now this group can tell their stories and do reputational damage to those they accuse, get them fired, make them lose jobs, pressure advertisers. Now there is a weapon that can be used outside of due process to go after anyone they want. Itís not like their hiding that this is going on or we are speculating about it. SJWs are doing just this openly in a variety of ways.

Itís a dangerous thing, and itís already being abused.

Nope: Societal compact. Innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. Due process. If somebody is unwilling to engage the justice system, they donít have my support. The fact that it sometimes lets some people down and is imperfect is not an excuse not to start there.

You seem like a pretty woke guy, itís not like you donít already know this is going on. Why dance around it?
I'm unconvinced that this is being weaponized against the innocent. I've seen no evidence for it. Kavanaugh has suffered nothing (he's at the peak of his profession), and I see no evidence his accusers were lying. Trump has certainly suffered nothing. The ones who have suffered are being prosecuted -- they've either been found guilty (Cosby) or they will be tried (Weinstein).

I don't believe false accusations are easy to manufacture -- journalists actually check these things, and in my understanding they regularly get anonymous tips that they check and turn out to be baseless (and we never hear of).

Broadly speaking, society is still massively tilted in favor of powerful abusers and against their victims and survivors. Until we tilt it back to the point of fairness, I'm going to worry much, much more about those victims and survivors (and accusers) than the accused. You should too. Trump has a team of corrupt lawyers to denigrate and defame Carroll and defend him... he doesn't need you.
  #211  
Old 06-28-2019, 07:43 PM
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Which is all well and good, except thatís not really the end of it. Now this group can tell their stories and do reputational damage to those they accuse, get them fired, make them lose jobs, pressure advertisers. Now there is a weapon that can be used outside of due process to go after anyone they want. Itís not like their hiding that this is going on or we are speculating about it. SJWs are doing just this openly in a variety of ways.

Itís a dangerous thing, and itís already being abused.

Nope: Societal compact. Innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. Due process. If somebody is unwilling to engage the justice system, they donít have my support. The fact that it sometimes lets some people down and is imperfect is not an excuse not to start there.


You seem like a pretty woke guy, itís not like you donít already know this is going on. Why dance around it?
In my head I hear you saying this to blacks suffering under Jim Crow laws and telling them that they should stop their sit-ins and marches because they are not engaging through the justice system.
  #212  
Old 06-28-2019, 08:21 PM
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Since the legal system keeps getting invoked, this might be of interest:

Traditionally, under rules of evidence, the prosecution is forbidden from presenting “propensity” evidence in the form of other bad acts to obtain a conviction. That is, if you want to prove a person committed a beating or robbery, for example, you can’t do so by presenting evidence of other beatings or robberies. (There are exceptions, and this is an area of much litigation).

But, under the federal rules of evidence, there is an exception for sex crimes. The courts specifically note that 1) there is often a lack of physical evidence in such cases and 2) sexual predators tend to have multiple victims, in allowing prosecutors to present other allegations to give credibility to a victim’s story.

Meaning, among the points to consider in judging this story, we should consider the stories of the other people who have accused Trump to decide whether this is likely true.

Cite: https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/fre/rule_413

Last edited by Moriarty; 06-28-2019 at 08:24 PM.
  #213  
Old 06-28-2019, 08:34 PM
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In my head I hear you saying this to blacks suffering under Jim Crow laws and telling them that they should stop their sit-ins and marches because they are not engaging through the justice system.
Thatís some high quality virtue signaling.
  #214  
Old 06-28-2019, 08:47 PM
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I like you a lot, but I’m kind of against this. The whole climbing up about of the abyss of chaos and anarchy, and living as a Society of civilized human beings who may disagree with disapprove of and conflict with each other without killing each other and being the better because of it depends on the societal compact of not taking things into your own hands.
Okay. Out of ten sexual assaults reported to police, one may get convicted. We already know going in that the likelihood of getting a conviction is next to none. We know that.

I listened to an interview with Twohey and Kantor (those were the journalists that broke the Weinstein story). The women reporting on Weinstein were very much like David taking on Goliath. Many were actresses that wanted to work. You would not be getting parts by taking on Weinstein.

Anyway, Twohey and Kantor said the New York Times, in this situation, could give the women a platform to even the field.

After which, the LAPD looked BACK into reports formerly dismissed.

Larry Nassar’s reign of abuse and terror was finally broken by a campus cop that took the position of “Believe first”. This was after three or so women did report to the police, but Nassar talked his way out of it.

When he was finally convicted, over 200 women and girls testified at his sentencing.

Far less high-profile, there was recently a story of a young woman reporting a sexual assault to the police. His interview was filmed. Caught on film was the RCMP officer asking her if, on some level, she was turned on by the assault.

I wish I could say that going to the police will result in a fair examination of the evidence. If it would, then I actually believe that most of us would rather go that way. Most of us would rather there be a fair examination of the evidence, and not have our names and faces splashed everywhere.

But that is not how it works. Yet.

But I remain ever hopeful that it will. Things are changing. When I went in to report the instructor (finally!) the police office was kind, compassionate and fair. I left feeling supported. I don’t mean that I felt he would be unfair, but he accepted me at my word that something had happened.

That is how it should always work.

But we know it does not.

So, maybe this will get someone to take a second look at a case and make sure it was down properly - knowing it was often done poorly previously, shouldn’t we all want that?

Last edited by Poysyn; 06-28-2019 at 08:48 PM.
  #215  
Old 06-28-2019, 08:47 PM
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I'm unconvinced that this is being weaponized against the innocent.

Do you think Ben Shapiro is a Nazi?


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Broadly speaking, society is still massively tilted in favor of powerful abusers and against their victims and survivors.

Thatís a statement that will be definitionally true in any circumstances. Switching who is on top isnít a good solution, IMO.

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Until we tilt it back to the point of fairness, I'm going to worry much, much more about those victims and survivors (and accusers) than the accused.
Yeah. I agree. The problem is which is which. Turns out the kids on the Duke Lacrosse team ended up being the victims. You canít determine who the victims are from stories, and tweets, and shit. There needs to be an actual process. You know, civilization and such.


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You should too. Trump has a team of corrupt lawyers to denigrate and defame Carroll and defend him... he doesn't need you.
I donít care about him. Iím just surprised how gullible people are, and how susceptible to confirmation bias they are. Seems like some people will believe anything as long as itís what they want to hear.

This case, to me is kind of a litmus test for gullibility. If you buy her act you have been drinking the Zkool aid way too long.
  #216  
Old 06-28-2019, 09:00 PM
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Okay. Out of ten sexual assaults reported to police, one may get convicted. We already know going in that the likelihood of getting a conviction is next to none. We know that.

I listened to an interview with Twohey and Kantor (those were the journalists that broke the Weinstein story). The women reporting on Weinstein were very much like David taking on Goliath. Many were actresses that wanted to work. You would not be getting parts by taking on Weinstein.

Anyway, Twohey and Kantor said the New York Times, in this situation, could give the women a platform to even the field.

After which, the LAPD looked BACK into reports formerly dismissed.

Larry Nassarís reign of abuse and terror was finally broken by a campus cop that took the position of ďBelieve firstĒ. This was after three or so women did report to the police, but Nassar talked his way out of it.

When he was finally convicted, over 200 women and girls testified at his sentencing.

Far less high-profile, there was recently a story of a young woman reporting a sexual assault to the police. His interview was filmed. Caught on film was the RCMP officer asking her if, on some level, she was turned on by the assault.

I wish I could say that going to the police will result in a fair examination of the evidence. If it would, then I actually believe that most of us would rather go that way. Most of us would rather there be a fair examination of the evidence, and not have our names and faces splashed everywhere.

But that is not how it works. Yet.

But I remain ever hopeful that it will. Things are changing. When I went in to report the instructor (finally!) the police office was kind, compassionate and fair. I left feeling supported. I donít mean that I felt he would be unfair, but he accepted me at my word that something had happened.

That is how it should always work.

But we know it does not.

Those are really good examples. They make me happy as I hope they make you happy, not that bad things happened but that justice was finally served.

What these stories all have in common is that the victims sought justice by going through the justice system first. They went to the police. Some of them did not get satisfaction but there word was on record and it backed up later allegations. Some did not get satisfaction, and the pursued the media or alternative outlets to gain justice, which forced the justice system to take a look.

Of course, others, not mentioned, went to the justice system and never got satisfaction.

What these all have in common is that they went through the process society has put in place first. I think that is incredibly important and incredibly brave. I recognize how hard and risky and demeaning it must be to do it.

When someone does such a thing and does not get satisfaction, I listen very carefully. This is someone who has taken risk to put their word to the test. They are asking for help, and they deserve respect and careful consideration. They are invested in the process.

When someone first bypasses that process and attempts to use the media to get their way without first seeking due process I am incredibly skeptical, and suspicious.

I think this is correct.


The disagreement between us (if we have one) is that I want to see victims first avail themselves of the processes in place, before they seek alternate venues for justice.
  #217  
Old 06-28-2019, 09:03 PM
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If they donít, and the first time they go public with it is during their book tour, I wonder if they are seeking justice or just trying to sell books
  #218  
Old 06-28-2019, 09:22 PM
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If they don’t, and the first time they go public with it is during their book tour, I wonder if they are seeking justice or just trying to sell books
Here’s the thing. She’s not “seeking justice”. She isn’t pressing charges. She isn’t suing. She IS trying to sell her book. As is her right in telling her story.

But you are conflating that with whether her story is true.

Why can’t it be both self-serving aggrandizement AND completely true?

Just because she doesn’t want to go to court doesn’t mean she isn’t telling the truth. Just because she is making money doesn’t make it true. In fact, the fact that she CAN use it to make money suggests it IS true: By your standard, Trump now must sue her for defamation, right? If he refuses to test its veracity in court, he’s conceding it happened, isn’t he?

Last edited by Moriarty; 06-28-2019 at 09:23 PM.
  #219  
Old 06-28-2019, 09:25 PM
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Okay. Out of ten sexual assaults reported to police, one may get convicted. We already know going in that the likelihood of getting a conviction is next to none. We know that.

I listened to an interview with Twohey and Kantor (those were the journalists that broke the Weinstein story). The women reporting on Weinstein were very much like David taking on Goliath. Many were actresses that wanted to work. You would not be getting parts by taking on Weinstein.

Anyway, Twohey and Kantor said the New York Times, in this situation, could give the women a platform to even the field.

After which, the LAPD looked BACK into reports formerly dismissed. ...
Add to that, the case of Marie in Lynnwood, Colorado — https://www.propublica.org/article/f...lievable-story

(My summary below is from memory)

When she was 18 years old, a man sneaked in through her window, bound and gagged her and raped her at knifepoint. She reported the rape. One of Marie's former foster mothers, Peggy, thought Marie's behavior was "fishy" for a recent rape victim, and she called up the police and told them that.

The police dropped the rape investigation, and charged Marie with filing a false report. Marie, burdened under the weight of all the pressure on her, decided she just wanted it to end and took a plea deal.

Some time later, two police investigators in nearby towns decided to work together on a series of rape cases. Their collaboration broadened, and took in more cases, they eventually found a serial rapist in Colorado, whose modus operandi exactly matched Marie's original story.

This guy would choose a victim, study her movements, and then late at night break into her bedroom, bind her, gag her, threaten her with a knife, and them rape her. As it turned out, he also took pictures of all of his crimes in progress.

And what do you know, he had taken pictures of his rape of Marie, the Marie who reported her crime, and then because someone thought her story was "fishy," the cops charged her with a misdemeanor, which then she didn't have the strength left to fight.

This is how women who report rape are treated. They are re-victimized by the so-called justice system.

You've been traumatized. You just want to forget it. Maybe in your trauma, you go ahead and shower and clean yourself, because you can't bear it.

People around you advise you to keep your mouth shut. You still decide to go to the police. The police try to persuade you that you imagined it, or you're lying, or it's not worth reporting. But you do it anyway. Then, if you didn't think to avoid bathing, you might go for a rape kit test, a very intrusive, humiliating test, which itself is another trauma.

Okay, you do it. The cops throw the rape kit in storage. It never goes to the lab. Or it goes to the lab, and the lab throws it in a pile and never processes it. Or they process it and botch it. Anyway, the case goes nowhere.

And you're left as the person who claimed to have been raped. You might be ostracized by your family, your friends, your community. Everyone looks at you differently. You go on dates who get freaked out that you once reported a rape. If they don't believe you, they hate you. If they believe you, they see you as a "ruined" person.

If the case is indeed investigated and indeed goes to trial, the chances are slim that there will be a conviction. The whole process will be a trauma that lasts for years. And then if there's a conviction, there's a good chance that the punishment will be negligible.

In the meantime, your entire life has become that rape. You are stuck for years, maybe decades, maybe for the rest of your life, in that moment just because you decided that "hard is fucking authorized" and you pushed through. And what's the result? Everyone gets to be okay except you.

How many of you are brave enough to go through all this in the name of justice? Justice for whom?
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Last edited by Acsenray; 06-28-2019 at 09:26 PM.
  #220  
Old 06-28-2019, 09:35 PM
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Ok. So five years or so ago you raped me.

There you go my accusation against you has all the evidence of the accusation against Trump.
Do you want to learn something about evidence?

Here's how evidence works:

I. You accuse me of raping you five years ago.

What's some of the evidence?

- The fact that we are both anonymous members of a message board and there's no evidence that we actually know who each other is, that you don't know where I live, or where I lived five years ago, or what I look like, or what my sex or gender or age is
- The fact that you made the accusation in a thread whose topic is, in part, what constitutes evidence of rape
- The fact that the accusation came during a discussion in which you are arguing that someone else's accusation of rape shouldn't be believed

Tell me, what does that say about your evidence of rape?

II. E. Jean Carroll writes a book in which she describes an incident in which she was raped by Donald Trump

What's some of the evidence?

- Carroll and Trump were both prominent residents of New York during the approximate time in which she said the rape happened
- Carroll is a well-known author, journalist, and public persona who is well known to speak candidly about her life. She is not known to have a track record of dishonesty
- Carroll's account is frank and candid
- Carroll's description of Trump's behavior matches other people's stories of Trump's personality and behavior
- More than 20 other women have accused Trump of sexual assault in incidents that have spanned several decades
- Trump's ex-wife filed a paper in court under oath that included an account of Trump sexually assaulting her
- Numerous people have witnessed Trump taking liberties with the women around him
- There is video audio tape of Trump boasting to someone else that he routinely sexually assaults women
- Trump is known to be a serial liar, both in his personal life, his business dealings, and his public life

How does the evidence compare?
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Last edited by Acsenray; 06-28-2019 at 09:36 PM.
  #221  
Old 06-28-2019, 09:47 PM
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Hereís the thing. Sheís not ďseeking justiceĒ. She isnít pressing charges. She isnít suing. She IS trying to sell her book. As is her right in telling her story.

But you are conflating that with whether her story is true.

Why canít it be both self-serving aggrandizement AND completely true?

Just because she doesnít want to go to court doesnít mean she isnít telling the truth. Just because she is making money doesnít make it true. In fact, the fact that she CAN use it to make money suggests it IS true: By your standard, Trump now must sue her for defamation, right? If he refuses to test its veracity in court, heís conceding it happened, isnít he?
Thatís a good point. I addressed it earlier, very briefly. Perhaps here I suffer from the confirmation bias that I earlier suggested others had.

The idea that it is true and that she doesnít want justice, but just wants to sell books is not something I want to believe. That would be worse than lying, imo. It is just do ethically icky and repugnant that I really donít think she would do it.

Itís like this (I think.). If you are Karate master you donít run around beating people up, even if the desire to do so was why you got into it. Thatís because becoming a karate master changes you through itís process.

I think trauma does something similar. For example, as a teenager, I was a burn victim. It was pretty bad, but really nobodyís fault. The long term agony and consequences of that incident carved themselves deeply into me. The idea that I could save that and wait to cash in or use it as some kind of Trump card is unthinkable and icky. Itís not something a lot of other people are going to get or understand unless they have been unlucky enough to have something similar have happened to them. To seek personal gain from such an experience is unthinkable to me.

I imagine that it must be similar a rape victim. I donít think they would want something from what happened to them or consider themselves privileged or special.


So, while I am skeptical of her story, and am willing to say so, I am not willing to suggest that she is that horrible.
  #222  
Old 06-28-2019, 10:01 PM
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So, while I am skeptical of her story, and am willing to say so, I am not willing to suggest that she is that horrible.
Being honest and settling for a profit is more reprehensible than lying? Fuck, that's some twisted shit right there.

Of course she would want justice. She has no hope for justice, not in 1995 and not now. So why is it so bad for her to profit from her honest account of it?
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  #223  
Old 06-28-2019, 10:05 PM
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Being honest and settling for a profit is more reprehensible than lying? Fuck, that's some twisted shit right there.

Of course she would want justice. She has no hope for justice, not in 1995 and not now. So why is it so bad for her to profit from her honest account of it?
If you donít agree or donít get it, thatís ok.
  #224  
Old 06-28-2019, 10:10 PM
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If you don’t agree or don’t get it, that’s ok.
No, it's not really okay, not if there are enough people who agree with that to have any measure of authority or decision-making power in our country.
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  #225  
Old 06-28-2019, 10:11 PM
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  #226  
Old 06-28-2019, 10:15 PM
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No, it's not really okay, not if there are enough people who agree with that to have any measure of authority or decision-making power in our country.
I am pretty sure that I am a minority in this, so you probably don’t need to worry.

Last edited by Scylla; 06-28-2019 at 10:17 PM.
  #227  
Old 06-28-2019, 10:22 PM
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I am pretty sure that I am a minority in this, so you probably donít need to worry.
Just for the counter sentiment, I see it as a form of self-empowerment.

Sheís ďclaiming her storyĒ, so to speak. The whole book, as I understand it, is a series of tales of compromising encounters with men written under the premise that women are better off without men. Sort of a, ďI will not be cowed by the men who have attacked meĒ sentiment.
  #228  
Old 06-28-2019, 10:25 PM
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Just for the counter sentiment, I see it as a form of self-empowerment.

Sheís ďclaiming her storyĒ, so to speak. The whole book, as I understand it, is a series of tales of compromising encounters with men written under the premise that women are better off without men. Sort of a, ďI will not be cowed by the men who have attacked meĒ sentiment.
Yes. I saw that.
  #229  
Old 06-28-2019, 10:53 PM
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I find it interesting that folks are going for the “trying to make money” motive, when to me, it’s more likely that naming her attacker is an act of revenge that is legal under the 1st amendment. This is a form of justice.

Last edited by you with the face; 06-28-2019 at 10:57 PM.
  #230  
Old 06-28-2019, 11:07 PM
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Thatís some high quality virtue signaling.
The word you're looking for is denial.

All conspiracy theories have a common form, sound, and arc. After reading dozens or hundreds of comments on a variety of topics - not just moon-hoaxing or birtherism or truthism, but perpetual free energy or 0.9999~ isn't equal to 1 - I've found that it's remarkably easy to identity that particular form of nonsense very early on.

In the same way, I've heard the arguments against civil rights and gay rights and tolerance of non-Christian religions and other forms of minority rights for decades, and they all have a common form, sound, and arc. It's remarkably easy to substitute the arguments against one for any other. We've heard them all before and have learned through experience how dismissible they are.

It's very simple. If you don't want to be associated with deplorables, don't sound exactly like them.
  #231  
Old 06-29-2019, 12:44 AM
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The normal channels are failing these women. So they're speaking out. They're not organizing vigilante squads, or lynching menfolk, or anything like that. They're just telling their stories, loudly and to the media.

That should be welcomed, not denigrated. There's no other option for so many of these women, since law enforcement has so often failed.
Law enforcement will always fail if victims keep them ignorant of the crime.
  #232  
Old 06-29-2019, 05:10 AM
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Do you think Ben Shapiro is a Nazi?
What does that have to do with accusations of rape?



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That’s a statement that will be definitionally true in any circumstances. Switching who is on top isn’t a good solution, IMO.


You'd rather rapists keep their power and influence than giving some measure of that to their victims? Because that's what I'm pushing for.



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Yeah. I agree. The problem is which is which. Turns out the kids on the Duke Lacrosse team ended up being the victims. You can’t determine who the victims are from stories, and tweets, and shit. There needs to be an actual process. You know, civilization and such.
The system worked (eventually) for the Duke athletes. As it usually does for the accused, whether or not they're guilty.

Which is what I think should change. The system should work for victims and survivors, and it usually fails them. The system is great for rapists and abusers - especially powerful ones like Trump. He even gets free defenders from skeptical strangers out there like you! Even with the chain of evidence Ascenray laid out, you still think he's more likely telling the truth on this than Carroll.

Trump wins again, even if he's a rapist.



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I don’t care about him. I’m just surprised how gullible people are, and how susceptible to confirmation bias they are. Seems like some people will believe anything as long as it’s what they want to hear.



This case, to me is kind of a litmus test for gullibility. If you buy her act you have been drinking the Zkool aid way too long.
I feel the same way about those that believe Trump's account. And the thing is, I could be wrong. But if I'm wrong, nothing bad happens - Trump hasn't suffered anything, and probably won't. But if you're wrong, you just contributed to all the shit accusers like Carroll have wade through just because they told their stories, and you just made it harder for future victims to speak out. Why are you so confident that that risk doesn't worry you at all?
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  #233  
Old 06-29-2019, 09:29 AM
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You'd rather rapists keep their power and influence than giving some measure of that to their victims? Because that's what I'm pushing for.
Which would be great if you could know beforehand who is guilty and who isnít, who is the victim and who isnít. But you canít.


Quote:
The system worked (eventually) for the Duke athletes. As it usually does for the accused, whether or not they're guilty.
Thatís a bad statement. It worked eventually for the Cosby accusers (as it usually does) and for the Weinstein accusers (as it usually does.). You really canít have it both ways. You argue that the system is broken, and then that it isnít. The point that you make that I accept as a given is that the system doesnít always work. When it doesnít, it can cut either way, against alleged victims or against accused. The given that I donít accept which you seem to take on faith, is that the system is unfairly biased against accusers.

[quoteWhich is what I think should change. The system should work for victims and survivors, and it usually fails them.[/quote]

This is an unsupported statement of faith. Itís contemptible in that it ignores the work and success of our police, prosecutors, justice system, and support networks that advocate for and protect victims of sexual assault and punish the perpetrators. It works, and it works well. The fact that it sometimes doesnít erase its virtues and successes

[quote] The system is great for rapists and abusers - especially powerful ones like Trump. He even gets free defenders from skeptical strangers out there like you! Even with the chain of evidence Ascenray laid out, you still think he's more likely telling the truth on this than Carroll.[quote]

If you swallow that ďchain of evidenceĒ you make the term ďcredulousĒ an insult to yourself.

She should press charges.



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I feel the same way about those that believe Trump's account. And the thing is, I could be wrong. But if I'm wrong, nothing bad happens - Trump hasn't suffered anything, and probably won't.
Trump doesnít have an account. His whole story is ďI donít know her and it didnít happen.Ē

If the allegation is false, it could still cause him to lose the election. If she goes to the police, it could be proven false, or true.

If she doesnít, it is placed in the court of public opinion. That is not the place to handle these things.
  #234  
Old 06-29-2019, 10:25 AM
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Which would be great if you could know beforehand who is guilty and who isnít, who is the victim and who isnít. But you canít.
But Carroll does. She knows whether or not Trump is guilty. So if she knows Trump did this to her, are you saying itís wrong for her say so?

My problem with your position is that it presumes the truth is unknown just because itís unknown to 3rd parties. But we know that is not how it works in the real world. If an acquaintance, neighbor, or co-worker does you wrong somehow, youíre not expected to stay quiet about it for the rest of your life. You can tell others so that, at a minimum, they know to avoid from that person.

This applies even if you didnít press charges against them. Having the matter tried in court doesnít establish whether or not a wrongdoing occurred; it establishes whether a judge/jury was convinced beyond a reasonable doubt one occurred. A person victimized by someone else is always within their right to talk about it, even if a court hasnít rule in their favor.
  #235  
Old 06-29-2019, 10:28 AM
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You go on dates who get freaked out that you once reported a rape. If they don't believe you, they hate you. If they believe you, they see you as a "ruined" person.
You need to hang out with better people.

Apparently your friends are sociopathic scumbags.
  #236  
Old 06-29-2019, 11:11 AM
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If they don’t, and the first time they go public with it is during their book tour, I wonder if they are seeking justice or just trying to sell books
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Originally Posted by Scylla View Post
That’s a good point. I addressed it earlier, very briefly. Perhaps here I suffer from the confirmation bias that I earlier suggested others had.

The idea that it is true and that she doesn’t want justice, but just wants to sell books is not something I want to believe. That would be worse than lying, imo. It is just do ethically icky and repugnant that I really don’t think she would do it.

It’s like this (I think.). If you are Karate master you don’t run around beating people up, even if the desire to do so was why you got into it. That’s because becoming a karate master changes you through it’s process.

I think trauma does something similar. For example, as a teenager, I was a burn victim. It was pretty bad, but really nobody’s fault. The long term agony and consequences of that incident carved themselves deeply into me. The idea that I could save that and wait to cash in or use it as some kind of Trump card is unthinkable and icky. It’s not something a lot of other people are going to get or understand unless they have been unlucky enough to have something similar have happened to them. To seek personal gain from such an experience is unthinkable to me.

I imagine that it must be similar a rape victim. I don’t think they would want something from what happened to them or consider themselves privileged or special.


So, while I am skeptical of her story, and am willing to say so, I am not willing to suggest that she is that horrible.
I think the fundamental error in your thinking is that you believe that everyone who finds themselves under a given set of circumstances, i.e. victim of a crime, would/should/must react in the same way that you would.

You completely discount their previous experiences and their own mental strength and coping mechanisms in dealing with what has happened. You further dismiss in how that thinking changes after time has passed and the self-doubt and guilt and fear and apathy (what's the point?!) creeps in. Nothing like this has ever happened to me and extremely unlikely that it ever would. My instinct is much like yours, report and fight for justice immediately. But I have come to understand that not everyone thinks like me. Not everyone has been as advantaged. Not everyone has grown up as resilient or brave as I believe I would be in a similar situation. I can imagine that bravery to some is in not going to the police but thinking they can just deal with it. But there comes a time, for some, where they can no longer cope with it and it comes out in a way that they can best express it. Sometimes it's to write about it. Which (unless it's revealed to be a lie) doesn't make her horrible.
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Last edited by QuickSilver; 06-29-2019 at 11:13 AM.
  #237  
Old 06-29-2019, 11:29 AM
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Which would be great if you could know beforehand who is guilty and who isnít, who is the victim and who isnít. But you canít.
So then just be welcoming for women to come forward, and refrain from attacking or denigrating an accuser without proof of dishonesty. You don't have to say "Trump is a rapist" (though, Trump is a rapist), but just refrain from attacking the accuser.

Quote:
Thatís a bad statement. It worked eventually for the Cosby accusers (as it usually does) and for the Weinstein accusers (as it usually does.). You really canít have it both ways.
I don't have it both ways -- it usually fails accusers, and usually helps abusers. Weinstein and Cosby are rare exceptions. Most of the women I know have been raped or sexually assaulted; less than a tenth have actually gotten any measure of justice (and that goes for the ones that reported it to the police as well).

Quote:
You argue that the system is broken, and then that it isnít. The point that you make that I accept as a given is that the system doesnít always work. When it doesnít, it can cut either way, against alleged victims or against accused. The given that I donít accept which you seem to take on faith, is that the system is unfairly biased against accusers.

This is an unsupported statement of faith. Itís contemptible in that it ignores the work and success of our police, prosecutors, justice system, and support networks that advocate for and protect victims of sexual assault and punish the perpetrators. It works, and it works well. The fact that it sometimes doesnít erase its virtues and successes
The data should very clearly indicate to you that it fails for accusers -- most victims and survivors don't come forward. If there was a working system, they wouldn't be afraid to come forward... they're not dupes or idiots; they're people making the best decision for them, in general... and far too often, the best decision for them is "stay silent". Because the system isn't working.

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If you swallow that ďchain of evidenceĒ you make the term ďcredulousĒ an insult to yourself.

She should press charges.
Which part of that chain is false? Everything he said was accurate. I "swallow" it by acknowledging facts, and conclude that Carroll made a credible allegation that should be taken seriously and not dismissed or denigrated. That you don't demonstrates, IMO, that you have a significant blind spot with regards to women and rape/sexual assault.

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If the allegation is false, it could still cause him to lose the election.
I said "bad things".

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If she doesnít, it is placed in the court of public opinion. That is not the place to handle these things.
The "place" to handle these things is wherever victims and survivors choose. Rapists don't get to choose that. In a society that treats women and victims/survivors like utter dogshit, we should go out of our way to be as welcoming as possible for women and victims/survivors to tell their stories. You're going the other way, and making it harder for women, and harder for victims and survivors.
  #238  
Old 06-29-2019, 11:59 AM
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I think the fundamental error in your thinking is that you believe that everyone who finds themselves under a given set of circumstances, i.e. victim of a crime, would/should/must react in the same way that you would.

You completely discount their previous experiences and their own mental strength and coping mechanisms in dealing with what has happened. You further dismiss in how that thinking changes after time has passed and the self-doubt and guilt and fear and apathy (what's the point?!) creeps in. Nothing like this has ever happened to me and extremely unlikely that it ever would. My instinct is much like yours, report and fight for justice immediately. But I have come to understand that not everyone thinks like me. Not everyone has been as advantaged. Not everyone has grown up as resilient or brave as I believe I would be in a similar situation. I can imagine that bravery to some is in not going to the police but thinking they can just deal with it. But there comes a time, for some, where they can no longer cope with it and it comes out in a way that they can best express it. Sometimes it's to write about it. Which (unless it's revealed to be a lie) doesn't make her horrible.
This is why I qualified the statement the way I did at the beginning.
  #239  
Old 06-29-2019, 12:18 PM
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So then just be welcoming for women to come forward, and refrain from attacking or denigrating an accuser without proof of dishonesty.
No. And don’t presume to tell anyone else how they should behave. When an accusation is made public that accusation in and of itself may carry severe consequences against the accused. If the accusation is not judged critically and skeptically, those consequences automatically stand whether they are merited or not. This is unacceptable in a sane society. There are penalties to filing a false police report. Someone who bypasses the police and those penalties and only makes their accusation through the media should be subject to added scrutiny and skepticism.

This should be basic common sense.



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I don't have it both ways -- it usually fails accusers, and usually helps abusers. Weinstein and Cosby are rare exceptions.
That’s a faith based unsupported and unsupportable statement. It’s just not true. Try and prove it.

Quote:
The "place" to handle these things is wherever victims and survivors choose.
I say you raped me. I go public. I find out who you are. Nobody is allowed to say it didn’t happen. Your reputation suffers. You lose friends family, business. You have no recourse against my allegations. I can make the against you without fear of consequence and retribution.

Great system you are endorsing. I can’t imagine how it could possibly go wrong.

Quote:
In a society that treats women and victims/survivors like utter dogshit, we should go out of our way to be as welcoming as possible for women and victims/survivors to tell their stories. You're going the other way, and making it harder for women, and harder for victims and survivors.
You keep spouting this, and ignoring the fact that you don’t know who the victims are without due process. You can’t separate and won’t try to separate a good accusation from a bad one. You leave the unjustly accuser no recourse against the consequences of slander, and you seek to shame and silence anyone who tries.

Your ideas aren’t just naive. They are evil.

Last edited by Scylla; 06-29-2019 at 12:19 PM.
  #240  
Old 06-29-2019, 12:30 PM
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No. And don’t presume to tell anyone else how they should behave.
We're both doing this -- you've repeatedly said that Carroll should behave in a different way.

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When an accusation is made public that accusation in and of itself may carry severe consequences against the accused.
Occasionally, but usually not. Trump and Kavanaugh have suffered nothing -- in fact, the accusations may have greatly helped them, judging by how their supporters responded.

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If the accusation is not judged critically and skeptically, those consequences automatically stand whether they are merited or not. This is unacceptable in a sane society. There are penalties to filing a false police report. Someone who bypasses the police and those penalties and only makes their accusation through the media should be subject to added scrutiny and skepticism.

This should be basic common sense.
You're not judging it "critically and skeptically" -- you're rejecting it and denigrating the accuser with absolutely no evidence of dishonesty. You're making it so women better shut up... because so many have gone to the police and been treated like shit (alongside the relatively few who were treated decently), so then you're taking away the only other options they have.

Quote:
That’s a faith based unsupported and unsupportable statement. It’s just not true. Try and prove it.
Such statistics have been cited time and time again -- most women don't report or speak out at all if they are assaulted or raped. The system is failing if women see it as so dangerous to them that they'd rather stay silent.

Quote:
I say you raped me. I go public. I find out who you are. Nobody is allowed to say it didn’t happen. Your reputation suffers. You lose friends family, business. You have no recourse against my allegations. I can make the against you without fear of consequence and retribution.
Then try it. I suspect it'd be pretty damn easy to prove this was a bullshit accusation -- were you and I in the same town at about the time you say? Were we in the same place (say, did we attend a convention together in the summer of '99)? Did you tell friends at the time? Do I have numerous other accusations against me? If I were a prominent person, that's what journalists would check before reporting on it. So after they demonstrated it was a frivolous claim, you could shout it all you want, and you'd just be another crazy person shouting online.

Bullshit claims are almost always exposed. And the real claims are usually ignored.

Quote:
Great system you are endorsing. I can’t imagine how it could possibly go wrong.
The new system is still failing, just slightly less than the old system. In the old system, Cosby and Weinstein get away forever. In the new system, occasionally one of those assholes actually faces consequences. But most abusers still get away with it, and most accusers still get treated like shit.

Quote:
You keep spouting this, and ignoring the fact that you don’t know who the victims are without due process. You can’t separate and won’t try to separate a good accusation from a bad one. You leave the unjustly accuser no recourse against the consequences of slander, and you seek to shame and silence anyone who tries.

Your ideas aren’t just naive. They are evil.
The unjustly accused still have all the power to refute false accusations -- their lawyers and investigators can prove it was false, or prove the accuser made a deal with some shadowy figure to lie about it, or whatever. Remember the bullshit accusations (that never actually existed) against Mueller from a few months ago? That was a demonstration of how hard it is to fabricate a false allegation that goes anywhere. Jacob Wohl and his crew did their damnedest to fabricate an allegation against Mueller, and it backfired immediately. And Mueller didn't even have to do a damned thing.

Journalists aren't dupes. They generally sniff out the false allegations. Why is it really so hard for you to believe that Trump, who bragged about sexual assault, might really be an abuser and a rapist?

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 06-29-2019 at 12:31 PM.
  #241  
Old 06-29-2019, 12:53 PM
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Andy:

Letís be clear. Again. This is not about Trump. I am not defending Trump. I am consistent in my beliefs and would do the same if it were against anyone else.
I am looking at the merits of the accusation alone. I have not denigrated the women or made any derogatory comments about how that extend outside of the immediate scope of the narrative that she voluntarily put into the public eye in lieu of going to the police.


With that said, I donít see us making any further headway here.
  #242  
Old 06-29-2019, 01:00 PM
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Scylla, your trauma wasn't anyone' fault. Imagine for a moment that it was. , And that person is rich, and powerful, and you know the cards are stacked against burn victims - in fact in your state, someone could burn their spouse without legal repercussions just a few years earlier. While that's not your situation, you have seen other people being denied justice repeatedly. So you deal with your trauma, because you don't have the emotional strength to to be essentially put on trial for being a burn victim.

Years later you write a book. And society has grown and changed and maybe burn victims aren't treated like they asked for it, not always anyway, y and you want to tell your story of your trauma.

And people say you're a liar because you didn't go to the police immediately, and you didn't react the way they think you should react. They would have done x, y, and, z, since you didn't, it wasn't really what you say it was. Maybe you're lying, maybe you burned yourself. Maybe you weren't burned at all!

Does that mean you shouldn't tell your story?

Last edited by raventhief; 06-29-2019 at 01:01 PM.
  #243  
Old 06-29-2019, 01:02 PM
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Has Trump sued any of his accusers for defamation? By my count there should be at least 21 lawsuits. When should we expect him to sue Carroll?

Going by the logic espoused in this thread, Trump shouldn’t expect us to take his claims of innocence seriously. By not using the system to seek justice, he’s giving people license to commit “crimes” like this over and over again...not just against him but other men. For a man with his money and power, isn’t it the height of irresponsibility for him to not even challenge these accusers in a court of law?

Scylla, you can’t have it both ways. If Trump was a woman claiming to have been raped 22 times by 22 different men but didn’t report any of these attacks to the police, by your own words, you wouldn’t take Trump seriously. But for some reason, now, you seem to assign credence to his claim that he didn’t rape anyone, despite never taking steps to clear his name the 21 other times he’s been accused of rape/sexual assault.

Since Trump isn’t exactly a stranger to suing people, the most parsimonious explanation is these accusations are true and Trump knows it. He doesn’t care about seeking justice against false accusers because he doesn’t care about justice at all.

Last edited by you with the face; 06-29-2019 at 01:07 PM.
  #244  
Old 06-29-2019, 02:15 PM
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Good article on the consequences of false rape allegations:

https://world.wng.org/2019/03/false_...s_ruined_lives

FBI puts the number as high as 7-8%. This, of course, is for the ones that are reported to the police. It doesnít include the ones that are made casually or just through the media
  #245  
Old 06-29-2019, 02:31 PM
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I recommend Carroll's piece at The Cut (excerpted from her book); it is, besides describing all-too-common horrors, chock-a-block with jokes. It's obvious that humor is a coping strategy for her.

Or:
Where is this "humour" you allege?
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Last edited by Zeke N. Destroi; 06-29-2019 at 02:31 PM.
  #246  
Old 06-29-2019, 02:35 PM
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Good article on the consequences of false rape allegations:

https://world.wng.org/2019/03/false_...s_ruined_lives

FBI puts the number as high as 7-8%. This, of course, is for the ones that are reported to the police. It doesnít include the ones that are made casually or just through the media
Does the FBI mention what percent of those supposedly falsely accused were people that openly bragged about sexual exploitation?
  #247  
Old 06-29-2019, 02:39 PM
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My best friend is my cousin. She and I (a guy) share all of our thoughts. We where born a week apart. I know her quite well.

About 15 years ago, a friend of a friend knocked on her door one night. She let him in as she did recognize him. He proceeded to try to rape her. She landed a very lucky punch, broke his nose and got him out of her apartment.

Cops came and took her out of her apartment in handcuffs. She was arrested and spent the night in jail. To be let out with apologies from the judge the next day. The guy ended up with a broken nose but no charges where brought against him. Not prosecutable. His word against hers.

She is not a violent person in any way shape or form, and I think I'm one of two people that she has confided to about this.
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  #248  
Old 06-29-2019, 02:40 PM
Zeke N. Destroi is offline
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The normal channels are failing these women. So they're speaking out. They're not organizing vigilante squads, or lynching menfolk, or anything like that. They're just telling their stories, loudly and to the media.

That should be welcomed, not denigrated. There's no other option for so many of these women, since law enforcement has so often failed.
Normal channels would be police / DA. Did they do that?

Abnormal channels would be multi-media self-promotion via purported victimhood.
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  #249  
Old 06-29-2019, 02:53 PM
Little Nemo is offline
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FBI puts the number as high as 7-8%.
Let's accept this figure as accurate and go with eight percent. That means ninety-two percent of accusations are true.

Trump's been accused sixteen times (or more). Let's go with the low figure of sixteen.

Run the numbers. They say that there's 99.9999999999999995601953% chance that Trump is guilty. And a .0000000000000004398047% chance he's innocent.
  #250  
Old 06-29-2019, 03:04 PM
Zeke N. Destroi is offline
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I'm unconvinced that this is being weaponized against the innocent. I've seen no evidence for it. Kavanaugh has suffered nothing (he's at the peak of his profession), and I see no evidence his accusers were lying. Trump has certainly suffered nothing. The ones who have suffered are being prosecuted -- they've either been found guilty (Cosby) or they will be tried (Weinstein).

I don't believe false accusations are easy to manufacture -- journalists actually check these things, and in my understanding they regularly get anonymous tips that they check and turn out to be baseless (and we never hear of).

Broadly speaking, society is still massively tilted in favor of powerful abusers and against their victims and survivors. Until we tilt it back to the point of fairness, I'm going to worry much, much more about those victims and survivors (and accusers) than the accused. You should too. Trump has a team of corrupt lawyers to denigrate and defame Carroll and defend him... he doesn't need you.
Oh for Christ's sake man. Again you are unconvinced. Fuck!

Is it being weaponized? Yes. There are clear cut examples of it. Is it weaponized in most or even many cases? No, very few. Do journalists get duped? Yes and one would have to be institutionalizably naive to believe otherwise. Do some journalists make shit up or act dishonestly to further their career? See the answer to "do they get duped."

Here is the thing, 25 years after an unreported rape there is no evidence. There is no rape kit, pictures, worthwhile testimony - nothing. It becomes nothing more than he said, she said. I'll be fucked if I'll call anyone a rapist based on nothing more than that.

I hate to defend Trump. I have <0% doubt that Trump has forced himself on women in the past - possibly present. But that is belief, not knowledge.

Here are some questions for you: 1)Why do these women chose to reveal their "shocking secret" at a time and in a way that they profit from? Why always the big publicity grab? 2) Why is there so much evidence - actual evidence - against Weinstein and Cosby and the like but none against Trump? Not one police report, not one teary confession to a friend, not even an accusatory fucking poem.

I grant that not all victims react alike - nor should tbey be expected to and it would be highly questionable if they did.

Oooh right, in this case all of the victims did react the same way - absolute siilence until the candidacy/Presidency. A very public and splashy announcement that they certainly never profit from.
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