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  #451  
Old 06-20-2019, 10:25 AM
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LOL, for a peep at Bidens future as the Dem nominee, I present unto you the conservative newspaper, Washington Examiner:

'Insensitive ... stupid': CNN anchor slams Biden for his comments on segregationist senators

Biden hails segregationists in old Senate: ‘At least there was some civility. We got things done’

From the same source:

Kellyanne Conway: Trump's Charlottesville comments were 'darn near perfection'

Soon we will see lists of every bill co-sponsored by Biden and some now-dead and now-recognized-as-racist lawmaker. Guarantee it.
  #452  
Old 06-20-2019, 10:26 AM
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LOL, didn't you note that I quoted MSNBC?
  #453  
Old 06-20-2019, 10:28 AM
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So...you think this will be a problem for him in the general election? Which voters do you envision abandoning Biden in favor of Donald "very fine people on both sides" Trump?

Last edited by SlackerInc; 06-20-2019 at 10:29 AM.
  #454  
Old 06-20-2019, 10:37 AM
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A bounce is just that - I don't think anyone believed it would last. ...
Especially that 41 (!)

That said he's gone from prebounce with his nearest competitor being only about 6 points away, to his nearest being 26 below at bounce peak and now down to 17 points above the next in line with more than twice the support than anyone else. Average prebounce period was 10 points above the number two.

He is now 5 points above Warren and Sanders together. Prebounce he was tied with them put together and peak bounce he got up to 19 above their combined very briefly.

So if Sanders (support gradually falling off) dropped out and threw all of his support to Warren (support gradually growing) she'd be behind but it would be a tight race, especially as I think she will do well in debate phase.

Odds of Sanders doing that? Close to zero. And his floor is solid. There are enough Bernie or Busters that he won't get below 7 if even 8.

Warren's best hope is that Harris and Buttigieg start poaching more off of Biden as she consolidates the Warren-Sanders lane.

Or that Biden has a Muskie moment.


And yeah "Twitter influencers" do not reflect voters or really influence them much. Biden has the unique advantage of connecting fairly well with older voters, with white noncollege-educated voters, and Black voters all at the same time. White college-educated he is fine with too. His weakness is with the white young progressives, who are loud voices in the Twitterverse and voting more than they had, but not yet a big enough force to outweigh the rest of the tent.

But of course we will see his entire long record examined and things held up. The problem with having actually done things for a long time is that some of those things can be held up as not good choices from the current vantage point.

SlackerInc Team Trump will bring those up. Not to get Black votes but to decrease the turnout. Obama campaigning for Biden in the general though will more than offset it.
  #455  
Old 06-20-2019, 10:57 AM
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Good post!
  #456  
Old 06-20-2019, 10:59 AM
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According to five of the most recent polls, Biden is still way up on the competition.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/

In these five polls, which were posted within the past week, Biden averages 31.6%. Bernie comes in well behind that at 14.8 percent, with Warren close behind at 11.8%. Warren has had the most forward momentum of any candidate by far.

I would also expect a less stability in the coming months, once the press coverage is consistent and once the debates start. Once they become more widely viewed, we'll probably see some shifting. But Biden's in a very strong position going into the debates.

One caveat is that these are national polls. Iowa and NH will probably show much tighter polling, but nationally, Biden's in a good spot -- at least for now
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Old 06-20-2019, 11:20 AM
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... Iowa and NH will probably show much tighter polling, but nationally, Biden's in a good spot -- at least for now
Last two in IA (YouGov and Selzer) both have Biden +8 over next closest. For apples to apples YouGov IA is Biden 30 (+8) and last national Biden 26 (+12), both with Warren and Sanders neck and neck in number two. So yes tighter but I'd expect national to settle into IA range of tightness and less major change from here in Biden's lead there, more shifts of who is leading the second tier pack. I'm still guessing Warren and Harris to emerge as the main challengers with any chance as it settles in - they both have mad debate skillz. And I think many of us who have Biden as our place holder (support but not with enthusiasm) are open to being convinced by the likes of them that they have what it takes to solidly destroy Trump. We can be won over.
  #458  
Old 06-20-2019, 11:22 AM
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Oh YouGov NH is Biden blowing it out +13.
  #459  
Old 06-20-2019, 11:45 AM
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Lol, none of y'all actually seem to know black people or even follow black influencers on Twitter (Black Twitter - it's a thing!).
'Influencers' - they're a thing.

What small fraction of the population do they 'influence', I have to ask?

And will 'influencers' still be a thing six months from now, or will it be something new?

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This, on both counts. Twitter is a great place for some interesting discussions, but it's far from representative of the larger world. And while I may wish it weren't so, the fact is that Biden's polling quite well among African-Americans.
  #460  
Old 06-20-2019, 01:20 PM
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Is this a whoosh?
If it's not a whoosh, he apparently thinks that following black people on Twitter and reading articles means he knows black people. To quote JohnT: LOL.
  #461  
Old 06-20-2019, 01:22 PM
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Yep. Twitter is loaded with Bernie bros, GOP paid posters, and Kremlin agents, all of whom will savagely attack whoever is the dem front runner.
  #462  
Old 06-20-2019, 01:23 PM
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True dat.
  #463  
Old 06-20-2019, 04:00 PM
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I would agree that twitter trends are not necessarily indicative of how real voters are going to perceive Biden's gaffes. However, there's a cautionary tale for Biden in that what he says in context and how people working in digital media interpret and report what he says are two different things. I mean, this has always been the case to some extent, but what I find these days is that with our currently fragmented media and the fact that the standards of what's required to be a reporter spreading information about a campaign are in many cases lower than what they were a few decades ago, the political terrain can be less forgiving. There's a lot of copycat reporting going on. The major networks and other outlets all broke the story in ways that made it seem like he was praising a segregationist.

In this specific case, I don't think Biden actually committed a gaffe in the sense that if people actually consider the context in which his comments were made, Biden's language is not in any way shape or form racist or even suggesting that he's an apologist for racism. All he said was that sometimes, whether you like it or not, in politics, you have to realize that you work with people who have character flaws. That's 100X more true when you're president and not senator. Obama had to work for 6 years with a party that called him everything from the food stamp president to a communist fascist dictator. That didn't keep him from working with people and signing important legislation. It's something I hope the activist wing of the party starts to understand.

Last edited by asahi; 06-20-2019 at 04:01 PM.
  #464  
Old 06-20-2019, 04:22 PM
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I suspect this might all help him in the general with anti-PC swing voters.
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Old 06-20-2019, 06:01 PM
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All he said was that sometimes, whether you like it or not, in politics, you have to realize that you work with people who have character flaws.
I've seen the question asked in a number of places, but not yet answered: besides some anti-busing legislation, what did Biden accomplish by working with segregationist Senators?
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Old 06-20-2019, 07:08 PM
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I've seen the question asked in a number of places, but not yet answered: besides some anti-busing legislation, what did Biden accomplish by working with segregationist Senators?
Why not just answer your own question? I don't know - appropriations bills and funding the government maybe? Honestly that's a stupid question to ask.
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Old 06-21-2019, 02:50 AM
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I think it's a legit question.
  #468  
Old 06-21-2019, 06:17 AM
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I think it's a legit question.
I'd say just agreeing to sign an appropriations bill together would be a start, considering how apparently difficult it is just to keep the government funded in today's partisan climate. A lot of people who supported social programs like FDR's New Deal and Social Security and LBJ's Medicare were probably racist too. Should FDR have insisted that only people who support integration vote for the New Deal? Should he have vetoed his own legislation for having the support of Dixie Democrats? Should LBJ have insisted that only people who support integration vote for Medicare?

What Biden was getting at is that people should ideally support the idea of their representative, their senator, their governor, and their president occasionally working with the other side to achieve political progress. That message is something that will resonate with independents, who desperately want more progress on healthcare and don't want partisan politics to screw it up. The irresponsible media and the hard left seized on the comments about him working with a segregationist and completely whiffed on the deeper message, which is an important message.
  #469  
Old 06-21-2019, 06:41 AM
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If this was Bernie Sanders this footage would be viral all over Social Media. It's Biden though so after two months it has fewer than 500 views.

It took me 5 minutes to find this video on youtube so why have paid researchers who can find letters from the 1970s not shared this. Vetting involves sharing the good and the bad. And this from Biden was damn excellent.

https://youtu.be/nEJ8bRnk_QE
  #470  
Old 06-21-2019, 08:54 AM
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I've seen the question asked in a number of places, but not yet answered: besides some anti-busing legislation, what did Biden accomplish by working with segregationist Senators?
He sponsored or cosponsored over 4500 resolutions many of which passed requiring some bipartisanship. https://www.congress.gov/member/jose...000444?page=45

Start at the oldest. It’s a big list. I’m not going through it all. Many many small and some not so small. The Brady Bill got through on his back. The Violence Against Women Act. Some that were not great choices in hindsight too.

And of course there are all the other bills that talking to each other got things done. Some mundane true but a functional Congress. A big contrast to today.
  #471  
Old 06-21-2019, 09:49 AM
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He sponsored or cosponsored over 4500 resolutions many of which passed requiring some bipartisanship. https://www.congress.gov/member/jose...000444?page=45
How many, once we drop all the renaming of post offices and stuff?

No seriously, I'm asking for "here's the accomplishments that made it worthwhile to work with segregationists."
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The Brady Bill got through on his back. The Violence Against Women Act.
We still had segregationist Senators in the 1990s?
  #472  
Old 06-21-2019, 09:58 AM
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Why not just answer your own question?
Look, this is Biden's example of how one can work with 'the other side' to accomplish stuff.

Biden's defenders can come up with examples, or admit that he could be full of shit.
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I don't know - appropriations bills and funding the government maybe? Honestly that's a stupid question to ask.
What's stupid about it? It's easy to work with people to pass the sort of legislation they already are predisposed to pass. Like the anti-busing legislation (the one example we have) - no problem getting a segregationist Senator to sign on to that! And boy howdy, America is so much better for having been able to largely maintain a large degree of de facto school segregation for all these decades, amirite?
  #473  
Old 06-21-2019, 10:46 AM
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... "We still had segregationist Senators in the 1990s?
Yes.

Remember Byrd, for example, served until his death in 2010. Once upon a time Byrd had filibustered the Civil Rights Act of 1964. He became someone who by 2003 was rated 100% approval by the NAACP. How does one change? Conversations with people you respect, by way of working together are part of that.

Eastland, who Biden mentioned being able to work with, could block almost anything in Judiciary if he wanted to. Anything that got past it meant you worked with him. Talmadge, another one mentioned, as "one of the meanest guys I ever knew", was on the Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, sponsored a bill that got food stamps to the rural poor, and he was an effective part of the Senate's Watergate investigation.

How much of what got done every day was facilitated by having civil relationships with people who were despicable overall? It is really hard to quantify. In general though many of believe that it is exactly the people we most disagree with that we need to speak with the most and be most civil to if any progress is to be made. Don't let disgust with them as people get in the way of getting the other day in day out work done. Talking civilly may not work all that often. Not talking at all other than to vilify never does.
  #474  
Old 06-21-2019, 10:54 AM
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That's all well and good. But that defense of Biden becomes a little problematic when his signature example of work with these segregationists was a bill to stop school integration.
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Old 06-21-2019, 11:00 AM
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Also problematic: congress hasn't worked that way since at least 2009.
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  #476  
Old 06-21-2019, 01:30 PM
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I have never seen “The Apprentice”, but I assume on that show he didn’t act the way he has in the presidency (what Bill Maher terms being a “whiny little bitch”).
Especially pathetic (and discouraging) is that his persona on The Apprentice — the insightful executive who fires just the right person — was a complete fake: the series producers chose who would be fired and wrote scripts for the buffoon.

Get that? The buffoons elected the buffoon for his "demonstrated management skill," but that "skill" was just a scripted TV show.
  #477  
Old 06-21-2019, 02:22 PM
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Let's see if Biden can survive #metoo. It's coming sooner or later.
  #478  
Old 06-21-2019, 02:30 PM
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Let's see if Biden can survive #metoo. It's coming sooner or later.
Pretty sure it already arrived - he was heavily criticized for several instances of non sexual but boundary crossing touching.
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Old 06-21-2019, 02:39 PM
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Pretty sure it already arrived - he was heavily criticized for several instances of non sexual but boundary crossing touching.
Fake news from the kremlin and bernie Bros.
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Old 06-21-2019, 02:41 PM
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Fake news from the kremlin and bernie Bros.
Sadly, I'm not surprised that you're willing to call a bunch of women you've never meant liars or trolls just because they told a story you didn't like.
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  #481  
Old 06-21-2019, 03:29 PM
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As to his sales pitch about being wiling to work with even the despicable in a civil manner ... look at figure 5 here. 89% of Democratic and 79% of republican voters feel it is important that next president be able to seek compromises so that things get done.

Maybe the other side won't do it, maybe enough of them will see it as within their own informed self-interest that shit happens, but either way a candidate who sells their intent to try to so is playing to the crowds.
  #482  
Old 06-21-2019, 03:36 PM
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As to his sales pitch about being wiling to work with even the despicable in a civil manner ... look at figure 5 here. 89% of Democratic and 79% of republican voters feel it is important that next president be able to seek compromises so that things get done.

Maybe the other side won't do it, maybe enough of them will see it as within their own informed self-interest that shit happens, but either way a candidate who sells their intent to try to so is playing to the crowds.
Wouldn't even need to compromise if the Democrats win back the Senate. Make Mitch McConnell have a taste of his own medicine as Senate Democrats fill the courts and enact progressive agenda.
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Old 06-21-2019, 03:39 PM
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Can't rely on Manchin's vote. Need at least one R willing to cross lines to offset him.
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Old 06-21-2019, 08:04 PM
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Yes.

Remember Byrd, for example, served until his death in 2010. Once upon a time Byrd had filibustered the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
IOW, No.

Look, I realize you've got another point to make about Byrd, and that's fine. But as far as your original point goes, in the 1990s he wasn't a segregationist Senator. So Biden did not need to work with segregationist Senators to pass the Brady Bill of the Violence Against Women Act.
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Eastland, who Biden mentioned being able to work with, could block almost anything in Judiciary if he wanted to. Anything that got past it meant you worked with him. Talmadge, another one mentioned, as "one of the meanest guys I ever knew", was on the Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, sponsored a bill that got food stamps to the rural poor, and he was an effective part of the Senate's Watergate investigation.

How much of what got done every day was facilitated by having civil relationships with people who were despicable overall? It is really hard to quantify. In general though many of believe that it is exactly the people we most disagree with that we need to speak with the most and be most civil to if any progress is to be made. Don't let disgust with them as people get in the way of getting the other day in day out work done. Talking civilly may not work all that often. Not talking at all other than to vilify never does.
I guess it was in another thread where I already addressed this idea. I've got nothing against talking with persons on the other side of the fence, and I've got nothing against Democratic U.S. Senators doing it.

It's a matter of expectations. Sure, it's worth trying. But you should only rely on it if there's no other alternative. As long as Mitch McConnell is Senate GOP leader, the most reasonable expectation is that he will be the same Mitch McConnell that he's been since the beginning of 2007, and he will act pretty much the same way, blocking every Dem initiative he can block, and gumming up the works on everything else.
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Old 06-21-2019, 10:17 PM
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Look, some candidates campaign on the Green New Deal, some campaign on reparations, some campaign on Medicare for All, some campaign on UBI or sweeping gun safety. How are any of these less ridiculous than what Biden's saying about working with Republicans? They're all pie-in-the-sky campaign promises if Mitch is back in the Big Seat.

The difference is Biden's already fighting like he's the nominee, the rest are all pandering to various groups on the left. You think the Green New Deal is gonna turn out Obama-Trump voters in the Industrial Midwest? You think reparations will? Biden is currently laying down some shit that people here in West Michigan (and, based on polling, all over) like to hear. It's stuff that you and I know isn't going to happen with the current situation in the Senate, but none of the stuff that the other Dems are fighting over is gonna happen either. The difference is the shit Biden's talking about appeals to voters in the middle, low information voters, older voters, and disgusted Republicans.
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Old 06-21-2019, 10:23 PM
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If Biden loses, I'm voting for Trump.
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Old 06-22-2019, 03:38 AM
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Sadly, I'm not surprised that you're willing to call a bunch of women you've never meant liars or trolls just because they told a story you didn't like.
I agree with iiandyiiii. This comment is disgusting.

That being said, if Biden loses the primary or the election, it won't be due to his handsiness. It will be due to comments like his recent "Nothing will fundamentally change", which he said to wealthy donors. Yes, the context was that he may need to raise taxes, but that doing so won't significantly impact the living standards of the rich -- but this is going to get spun every which way. It's his "47% of the people" comment.
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Old 06-22-2019, 03:44 AM
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If Biden loses, I'm voting for Trump.

Srsly?

I am extremely disappointed to hear that.
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Old 06-22-2019, 05:21 AM
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If Biden loses, I'm voting for Trump.
Oh c'mon, nobody believes that.
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Old 06-22-2019, 05:51 AM
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Srsly?

I am extremely disappointed to hear that.
No, but I'll feel like it just to stick it to the social justice warriors.
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Old 06-22-2019, 06:24 AM
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Okay, I get that.
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Old 06-22-2019, 11:08 AM
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No, but I'll feel like it just to stick it to the social justice warriors.
Why do you hate yourself?
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Old 06-22-2019, 11:34 AM
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"Nothing will fundamentally change." - Joe Biden, to a roomful of donors yesterday
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Old 06-22-2019, 01:23 PM
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"Nothing will fundamentally change." - Joe Biden, to a roomful of donors yesterday
https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/st...54582456590336

"This is an out of context quote. I read the transcript. Biden was talking about raising taxes on the wealthy by taking their trump tax breaks away. The sentence quoted was to donors he told to their face would pay more. I’m neutral in this race but I will call out cheap shots"

An increase on taxes on those donors won't fundamentally change their standard of living.
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Old 06-22-2019, 01:42 PM
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This is the second time that Biden has been victimized by an out-of-context quote from the frothing batshit insane wing of the party. What's pretty ominous is that a lot of "reporters" are getting fooled by following the herd on social media.

And they wonder why they're called "Fake News"

Last edited by asahi; 06-22-2019 at 01:43 PM.
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Old 06-22-2019, 01:50 PM
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Nobody "wonders why they're called 'Fake News'". Everybody knows where that comes from. You don't need to participate in perpetuating the lie. Unless you want to perpetuate the lie.
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Old 06-22-2019, 02:02 PM
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This is the second time that Biden has been victimized by an out-of-context quote from the frothing batshit insane wing of the party. What's pretty ominous is that a lot of "reporters" are getting fooled by following the herd on social media.

And they wonder why they're called "Fake News"
Twitter is overwhelmingly anti-Biden. Old white man, self-proclaimed moderate, handsy, prone to foot in mouth moments. In an ironic way the same characteristics that made him the affable "Uncle Joe" for eight years is now being used against him.

Hillary wasn't particularly liked either but she had the glass ceiling factor of being the first woman to be the frontrunner for the nomination of the two major parties and therefore she had the feminist activists in support. Biden is just another of the same-old to people who engage on twitter but he still leads the polls by a fair way.

He led the polls months before he declared his candidacy. Then when the personal space stuff came out twitter pundits thought it would sink him. It didn't. Then when he declared his candidacy twitter pundits said the best day of his campaign would be Day 1 and then it would sink in numbers from then on. He didn't. Now we've got this past week and who knows how the debates play out but I predict if he comes through it with his numbers relatively intact then the nomination is his.

What he has to be careful is a lot of the news cycle nowadays gets determined by what is hot on twitter. Therefore if he makes a comment which in full context is not bad at all, but in an isolated sentence comes across old-school such as that "nothing will fundamentally change" remark he is going to be jumped on. People are waiting for him to jump on him on social media including reporters as you say. I would advise he does what Beto O'Rourke does and films all his sessions with fundraisers so reporters have no excuse to twist it as they see since video footage can debunk their interpretation.
  #498  
Old 06-22-2019, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Boycott View Post
Twitter is overwhelmingly anti-Biden. Old white man, self-proclaimed moderate, handsy, prone to foot in mouth moments. In an ironic way the same characteristics that made him the affable "Uncle Joe" for eight years is now being used against him.

Hillary wasn't particularly liked either but she had the glass ceiling factor of being the first woman to be the frontrunner for the nomination of the two major parties and therefore she had the feminist activists in support. Biden is just another of the same-old to people who engage on twitter but he still leads the polls by a fair way.

He led the polls months before he declared his candidacy. Then when the personal space stuff came out twitter pundits thought it would sink him. It didn't. Then when he declared his candidacy twitter pundits said the best day of his campaign would be Day 1 and then it would sink in numbers from then on. He didn't. Now we've got this past week and who knows how the debates play out but I predict if he comes through it with his numbers relatively intact then the nomination is his.

What he has to be careful is a lot of the news cycle nowadays gets determined by what is hot on twitter. Therefore if he makes a comment which in full context is not bad at all, but in an isolated sentence comes across old-school such as that "nothing will fundamentally change" remark he is going to be jumped on. People are waiting for him to jump on him on social media including reporters as you say. I would advise he does what Beto O'Rourke does and films all his sessions with fundraisers so reporters have no excuse to twist it as they see since video footage can debunk their interpretation.
Biden already does that.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&sour...61317407296737
  #499  
Old 06-22-2019, 02:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
He allows reporters to come in but my point is we - the public - don't know about the contents of his meetings until those reporters publish their pieces. And what typically happens is reporters first tweet the most sensational quotes in isolation (and without context) which attracts attention, while the full transcript only gets published afterwards.

Beto mitigates that by live streaming most of his events and uploading footage onto Facebook.

https://facebook.com/pg/betoorourke/...=page_internal

Last edited by Boycott; 06-22-2019 at 02:28 PM.
  #500  
Old 06-22-2019, 03:37 PM
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It's sad that some, including some here, are so willing to jump on spreading these out of context crap cheap shots. Such is the path to Trump winning, not by his smears but by smears from within the tent.

The fact that others running (and their operatives) are trying to get to the top by smearing Biden, rather than by convincing those of us who are saying Biden now but not married to the idea that they have what it takes to take down Trump even more solidly and even maybe have some coat tails, is ... unfortunate. It is not the way to win us over. It is the way to disgust more on the process and decrease turnout when we need it.
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