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  #51  
Old 02-17-2020, 12:28 PM
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I suspect the “number recovered” is inaccurate, because there are likely many who had milder forms of the disease without symptoms and were just not tested. I am not overly concerned about coronavirus and would not change travel plans; apart from picking another time to visit mainland China.
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  #52  
Old 02-17-2020, 12:33 PM
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Doesn't mean that one of the tech shipped over here for something hasn't been exposed ... though I meant one last year who was a real sweetheart,I know Japanese habit is to bring little gifts to the office workers that one is visiting, didn't know it was also a Chinese habit =)
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  #53  
Old 02-17-2020, 05:45 PM
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I would have hoped that the people being evacuated would be given those masks that would prevent the virus from getting out or in before and during the evacuation. And I mean the heavy duty ones with a very strong seal. Hell, I'd expect a slightly uncomfortable disinfection procedure before the masks could be removed. Also, I'd expect those known to have the disease to be removed in a separate vehicle at a separate time than those not infected.

With all of that, I would hope that the chance of anyone getting infected on the trip would be lower than staying on the ship.
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Old 02-17-2020, 06:23 PM
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I live in a major coastal city, I take public transit, I fly somewhat regularly, and my favorite hobby involves close contact with lots of other people. No, I wouldn't worry about visiting Santa Cruz.

Of course, there haven't been any cases anywhere near SantaCruz.

How far out is this trip? Since you can afford to walk away from the deposit, my advice would be to plan to go, but re-evaluate immediately before you leave, based on current information. Don't feel like you need to decide now and stick with it.
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I just came back from Disneyland. I didn't go into the park, but I did stay at one of the hotels and was in Downtown Disney a lot. There was no sign of concern from Disney not anyone else, and remember that this was where the measles outbreak hit.
Disney is a hundred times more likely to have problems than Santa Cruz.
I'd be a little nervous about Disney. Especially Disney a month from now.
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Old 02-17-2020, 06:27 PM
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I would have hoped that the people being evacuated would be given those masks that would prevent the virus from getting out or in before and during the evacuation. And I mean the heavy duty ones with a very strong seal. Hell, I'd expect a slightly uncomfortable disinfection procedure before the masks could be removed. Also, I'd expect those known to have the disease to be removed in a separate vehicle at a separate time than those not infected.

With all of that, I would hope that the chance of anyone getting infected on the trip would be lower than staying on the ship.
I wouldn't have thought the risk was all that high staying on the ship. Diseases usually spread readily through cruise passengers because they all interact with each other and eat from the same buffets. But these people are being (mostly) confined to their rooms and eating individually prepared plates of food. It feels completely different from a risk-of-infection basis. I'd guess that most or all of the new infections are people who were exposed before they began the quarantine.
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Old 02-17-2020, 11:40 PM
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  #57  
Old 02-18-2020, 01:56 AM
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US has 15 cases based on https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

This has been unchanged (IIRC) since my wife came back from Shanghai 15 days ago. Maybe it was 12 and then increased to 15 based on evacuation flights. I didn't take detailed notes and can't find a daily tracker

The only US person to person spread has been 2 cases of husband-wife.

3 people are recovered, including case zero in Seattle, and one case of husband-wife in Chicago (according to the above link).

Expect a jump in US cases tomorrow based on the evacuated ship from Japan that are now in hard quarantine in the US.

It is a nightmare for Wuhan and the province of Hubei. The manufacturing company I work for has 15,000 person factory in Wuhan. Fingers crossed but as far as I know only 2 people have been infected and are recovering. The rest of China is not nearly so bad, although there are multiple cities under hard lock down. Our factories in multiple locations are bringing folks on board slowly via a 2 week quarantine outside the factories.

You can say what you want about the response time, and how this could have been identified sooner, but I hope the world can acknowledge that China has taken a major bullet to burn out this epidemic inside of China.
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Old 02-18-2020, 02:12 AM
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...I hope the world can acknowledge that China has taken a major bullet to burn out this epidemic inside of China.
How so? What's the difference between containment actions to protect their own population and containment actions to protect the global population? Surely it's exactly the same thing.
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Old 02-18-2020, 02:53 AM
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I live in a major coastal city, I take public transit, I fly somewhat regularly, and my favorite hobby involves close contact with lots of other people. No, I wouldn't worry about visiting Santa Cruz.
Sure, the spring break and Mavericks crowds won't be there.

Quote:
Of course, there haven't been any cases anywhere near SantaCruz.
We'll not just visit our old home of Santa Cruz but also the Monterey Bay Aquarium and Cannery Row, which *do* attract many global visitors. Hell, the Snoopy statue at Railroad Square in Santa Rosa CA pulls in many visitors from worldwide. Tourists are odd animals.

Quote:
How far out is this trip? Since you can afford to walk away from the deposit, my advice would be to plan to go, but re-evaluate immediately before you leave, based on current information. Don't feel like you need to decide now and stick with it.
We'll definitely leave in a bit over 40 hours (that's before noon Wednesday) for a medical appointment along the way. But I'll check news on my tablet at the doc's office. If one case is reported on the Central Coast, we'll turn around for home.
  #60  
Old 02-18-2020, 03:22 AM
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I'm travelling South East Asia for some months and landed on Cambodia. Most people in SEA use masks every day(because of bad air), but Khmer(Cambodia) never did. One out 50 maybe.
Now, when this virus broke out, almost half people wear them. Which is nice of course, but it freaks me out more than usual.
Btw, be noted, that in Asia it is very common to wear surgical mask out of courtesy, if you think you are sick - so you don't infect others.
I'm not really a germophobe, but i started to check this site almost daily: https://covid19info.live/ old name (wuflu.live)

I missed the period on 11th Feb when confirmed cases spiked up. Anyone know why ?

Last edited by NotFromWuhan; 02-18-2020 at 03:23 AM.
  #61  
Old 02-18-2020, 04:29 AM
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Originally Posted by NotFromWuhan View Post
I'm travelling South East Asia for some months and landed on Cambodia. Most people in SEA use masks every day(because of bad air), but Khmer(Cambodia) never did. One out 50 maybe.
Now, when this virus broke out, almost half people wear them. Which is nice of course, but it freaks me out more than usual.
Btw, be noted, that in Asia it is very common to wear surgical mask out of courtesy, if you think you are sick - so you don't infect others.
I'm not really a germophobe, but i started to check this site almost daily: https://covid19info.live/ old name (wuflu.live)

I missed the period on 11th Feb when confirmed cases spiked up. Anyone know why ?
The cases spiked because China began reporting clinically confirmed but untested cases.
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Old 02-18-2020, 06:50 AM
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...
You can say what you want about the response time, and how this could have been identified sooner, but I hope the world can acknowledge that China has taken a major bullet to burn out this epidemic inside of China.
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How so? What's the difference between containment actions to protect their own population and containment actions to protect the global population? Surely it's exactly the same thing.
You know what, it's bronchitis good for us that our interests are aligned. But I'm thrilled the Chinese are trying to contain it.
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Old 02-18-2020, 06:52 AM
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Okay, that's too funny a swypo to edit away. But "bronchitis" was meant to be "probably". The letters aren't even that close and i don't know how it happened.
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Old 02-18-2020, 06:53 AM
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The cases spiked because China began reporting clinically confirmed but untested cases.
That is to say, it's a change in definition, not a real spike. (If there's also a real spike or dip, we can't tell.)
  #65  
Old 02-18-2020, 06:55 AM
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Sure, the spring break and Mavericks crowds won't be there.


We'll not just visit our old home of Santa Cruz but also the Monterey Bay Aquarium and Cannery Row, which *do* attract many global visitors. Hell, the Snoopy statue at Railroad Square in Santa Rosa CA pulls in many visitors from worldwide. Tourists are odd animals.


We'll definitely leave in a bit over 40 hours (that's before noon Wednesday) for a medical appointment along the way. But I'll check news on my tablet at the doc's office. If one case is reported on the Central Coast, we'll turn around for home.
Leaving in a couple of days? Don't worry about it. That's too soon for secondary infections to be there. In a month, who knows, but right now there are a tiny number of cases in the US and the odds of catching it in the wild are vanishingly small.
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Old 02-18-2020, 08:58 AM
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  #67  
Old 02-18-2020, 10:20 AM
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‘Chernobyl-like’ response by China means ‘worst is yet to come’ for coronavirus, Raymond James says

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The firm said it has been “receiving questions on whether or not this will be a ‘Chernobyl-like’ event for China — the comparison being the impact of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster on the fall of the Soviet Union.”

Raymond James said that following conversations with government officials and academics, it believes the “worst is yet to come” and that the “market is underappreciating the potential dangers and what the key government leaders on the virus are saying.”
Are they putting this out there just to have a grabby headline? It is hard to say. I have seen suggestions that the actual number of cases and deaths is far higher than what is being reported, though from here it is hard to evaluate. I do seriously doubt China will "fall"- did the Chernobyl disaster play a role in pushing the USSR over the edge?

Seems a little Chicken Little, but then I have read one in five earnings reports this quarter mention the virus, so I can believe economic impacts may not be getting priced into the markets.
  #68  
Old 02-18-2020, 12:39 PM
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Are they putting this out there just to have a grabby headline? ... Seems a little Chicken Little ...
Agreed. I don't like treating investment firms as the arbiters of Truth and Reality.

Now I understand better why these firms sometimes have "real-person" names like "Raymond James" and "Arthur Andersen". Makes their pronouncements seem more authoritative.
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Old 02-18-2020, 02:45 PM
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I don't know about "arbiters of Truth and Reality", but I like to look at the financial pages with a story like this. These guys don't get to manage billions in assets by being full of bs, so they tend to do a lot of data-driven analysis.

Still, comparing it to Chernobyl seems like hyperbole. Maybe they know something we don't? Who knows. My take is to filter out the Chernobyl stuff but note that they think the virus is going to drag on national economies. That may not be a total catastrophe, but it is still pretty serious.
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Old 02-18-2020, 03:05 PM
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I don't know about "arbiters of Truth and Reality", but I like to look at the financial pages with a story like this. These guys don't get to manage billions in assets by being full of bs, so they tend to do a lot of data-driven analysis.
I applaud them for trying to analyze the chaos ... but very few of the returns are in this early. So to speak.
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Old 02-18-2020, 05:15 PM
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A hospital director in Wuhan as died despite major efforts.

8th health care worker dead out of 3000 infected.

This is my concern based on what happened with SARS. The health care community is impacted and then things can go really bad quickly.
  #72  
Old 02-18-2020, 06:12 PM
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I do seriously doubt China will "fall"- did the Chernobyl disaster play a role in pushing the USSR over the edge?
Yes, Chernobyl and its aftermath did play a role in the downfall of the USSR. It wasn't the only factor, but it was one of them.

That said, I think this situation is different and I very much doubt China's current government will "fall" due to this epidemic.

It will also have a global economic impact as well, given how important China's economy and manufacturing is. That doesn't mean the virus will become significant outside of China, it does mean it will hit us all in the finances.
  #73  
Old 02-18-2020, 06:53 PM
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American who was on the cruise ship broke quarantine when it was docked in Cambodia. He's now home

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SEA-TAC AIRPORT, Wash. (KOMO) -- An Oregon comedian who had been stranded on a Holland America cruise ship in Cambodia due to COVID-19 virus concerns managed to get a flight back home by breaking quarantine in a hotel where ship's passengers were being held pending test results.

Frank King arrived at Sea-Tac Airport Monday afternoon on his way home to Eugene. He was a performer on the M/S Westerdam when their two-week cruise turned into quite the saga after a former passenger tested positive for the virus.

The ship left Hong Kong on Feb. 1 and was supposed to visit Shanghai but couldn’t because coronavirus gripped China. The ship was then denied entry in Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Guam and Thailand before finally being allowed to dock in Cambodia.

An 83-year-old woman who disembarked the ship tested positive for coronavirus in Malaysia, bringing the whole disembarking process to a halt. Some passengers had been put up in a five-star hotel in Phnom Penh awaiting travel home when the news of the positive test hit, meaning those on board and those at the hotel would have to all be tested and await results before being allowed to leave.

But King, who says he had an important speaking engagement back in the U.S. decided he couldn't wait.
I'm going to let other people have fun judging this person. And I'm not gonna freak out over the possibility that he spread the virus over the course of his travels. Cuz there is no point in freaking out.

But I gotta wonder if there were other Americans who did the same thing he did. If there are and they decide to stay under the radar (unlike Oregon guy), will we ever be told about them? I gotta think (hope?) some government official somewhere knows who they are and is keeping an eye on them, at the very least.
  #74  
Old 02-19-2020, 12:22 AM
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  #75  
Old 02-19-2020, 12:35 AM
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Why did China hide this virus from the world? Imagine if it was contained then other countries won't also be affected. They also say that wearing mask won't really protect you from the virus.
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Old 02-19-2020, 12:38 AM
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Are they putting this out there just to have a grabby headline? It is hard to say. I have seen suggestions that the actual number of cases and deaths is far higher than what is being reported, though from here it is hard to evaluate. I do seriously doubt China will "fall"- did the Chernobyl disaster play a role in pushing the USSR over the edge?

Seems a little Chicken Little, but then I have read one in five earnings reports this quarter mention the virus, so I can believe economic impacts may not be getting priced into the markets.
Yes to the grabby headline. Financial news can be really boring, so headlines are the clickbait.

I worked in investment banking in the 1990's, first in Japan. I think there is a very high risk that we are seeing "peak China." Just like at the end of the 1980's and early 1990's when unstoppable Japan buying up Manhattan and Pebble Beach imploded and economy has been lackluster ever since. The global supply chain is dependent on China. Lack of a ten cent spring can shut automotive factories around the world. The entire PC/smart phone supply chain is in China. This is a major disruption and labor shortages for the China export machine that will last for months.

Basic risk management: don't put all your eggs in one basket or to say it a different way "two supplier strategy." Trump and his trade wars was a black swan incident that got the brands that source in China (all off 'em basically) worried, and some even started doing something about it. Now a black swan the size of Godzilla dropped neutron bombs in multiple Chinese cities. It is far too much risk for Apple to accept, and these major brands will force a change in the supply chain out of China.
  #77  
Old 02-19-2020, 12:43 AM
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I'm going to let other people have fun judging this person. And I'm not gonna freak out over the possibility that he spread the virus over the course of his travels. Cuz there is no point in freaking out.

But I gotta wonder if there were other Americans who did the same thing he did. If there are and they decide to stay under the radar (unlike Oregon guy), will we ever be told about them? I gotta think (hope?) some government official somewhere knows who they are and is keeping an eye on them, at the very least.
Of course there are others that broke quarantine. It's human nature. The riskiest place to be when the plague hits is in the quarantine area with known sick people. Much better as a rational individual to flee to where the people are not sick, and where health care is not overwhelmed. And governments best interest is to enforce the quarantine so it doesn't spread. Completely rationale and diametrically opposite.

Thousand(s) of the passengers had already left Cambodia when the woman was diagnosed in Malaysia. If this coronavirus is really infectious, the world is going to find out in the next week...
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Old 02-19-2020, 06:08 AM
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Why did China hide this virus from the world? Imagine if it was contained then other countries won't also be affected.
Even if the virus and illness was contained to China all the other countries would be affected due to so much of the world's manufacturing being in China. Not so much physical illness as a financial illness as supply chains break down and commerce slow downs world wide.

Quote:
They also say that wearing mask won't really protect you from the virus.
Who are "they" and what are their credentials to say that?

Do masks provide 100% protection? No. Also, they have to be properly used which most people won't be trained in. On the other hand, it does discourage you from touching your face/mouth which may be of some help even for the untrained. Also, while it may not protect someone ill, it will help contain their emissions (sneezing, coughing, breathing) which will protect others to some degree.

Useless? No. Of limited benefit? Yes.
  #79  
Old Yesterday, 12:30 AM
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Huge reduction in two category's new numbers today:

75,725 confirmed infected
2,128 dead
16,415 recovered

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; Yesterday at 12:30 AM.
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Old Yesterday, 05:56 PM
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The good news is 1-2% lethality.
The bad news is high transmission rates.

This page, "Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE" which many of us have been monitoring, is imperfect.

For instance, it still has a listing of "634 others" which was originally comprised of passengers on the Diamond Princess. Those passengers have been released, though I believe the crew is still confined.

Those passengers were released despite the fact that new cases were appearing, a huge mistake. Some, such as the US passengers were sent to begin a new quarantine program on land. The correct procedure.

Another thing. The chart has the US listed as having 15 cases. We know that is at minimum 29 cases. A Spokane Wa. hospital is receiving at least 5 patients to its Special Pathogens Unit. There are 10 of these units around the country, created as a response to Ebola.

I'm not trying to fear-monger, but this epidemic is still spreading.
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Old Yesterday, 06:51 PM
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Disturbing news: Ukrainians hurl stones at evacuees from China.
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Buses carrying evacuees were finally able to reach the designated place of quarantine after hours of clashes. The masked evacuees, exhausted by the long journey, were peeking through bus windows as they drove slowly under a heavy police escort.

Stones shattered a window in one of the buses, but the evacuees appeared unhurt.

Since the early morning, several hundred residents of the village of Novi Sanzhary in Ukraine’s central Poltava region had cut the road to a sanitarium intended to host the evacuees, fearing they could become infected. Demonstrators, some of whom appeared drunk, put up road blocks, burned tires and clashed with riot police who moved to clear access. One protester tried to ram police lines with his car.

Nine police officers and one civilian were hospitalized, the regional police said in a statement.

Ukrainian police said 24 protesters were detained. Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, who personally visited the site to try to calm the crowd, said he was shocked by the aggression.

“What we saw was shameful,” he said in televised remarks. “It was one of the biggest disappointments in my life.”
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But municipal legislators in the village vowed to continue opposing the evacuation, saying that the sanitarium’s sewage system is linked to the one in the village and ends up in a nearby wastewater facility.

“We can’t allow putting the health and life of local residents at risk, and demand that top officials take urgent moves to prevent people from China from being put here,” they said in a statement.

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Old Yesterday, 08:00 PM
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Maybe they could be redirected to the quarry?
  #83  
Old Yesterday, 10:20 PM
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Another thing. The chart has the US listed as having 15 cases. We know that is at minimum 29 cases. A Spokane Wa. hospital is receiving at least 5 patients to its Special Pathogens Unit. There are 10 of these units around the country, created as a response to Ebola.
These are American patients from the Diamond Princess, which are presumably among the 634 "Other".

Last edited by Shmendrik; Yesterday at 10:20 PM.
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Old Yesterday, 10:21 PM
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Starting to see effects in places other than China, judging by my previous post and this news: South Korea declares Daegu a ‘special zone’ over virus cases.
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South Korea on Friday declared the southeast city of Daegu and the surrounding region a “special management zone” after a surge in virus cases that city officials say threaten to overwhelm the region’s health system.

Prime Minister Chung Se-kyun said the national government will concentrate its support to the region to ease a shortage in sickbeds, medical personnel and equipment.

“A month into the (COVID-19) outbreak, we have entered an emergency phase,” Chung said. “Our efforts until now had been focused on blocking the illness from entering the country. But we will now shift the focus on preventing the illness from spreading further in local communities.”

Sixty-nine cases of COVID-19, as well as the country’s first death of a virus patient, have been confirmed in the southeast city of Daegu and nearby areas over Wednesday and Thursday, a sudden jump that raised fears that the outbreak is getting out of control.

The surge of infections in the Daegu area and several cases in the capital, Seoul, where infection routes weren’t immediately traceable, forced government officials to acknowledge Thursday for the first time that the virus has begun to circulate in the local population.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; Yesterday at 10:22 PM. Reason: fixed coding
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Old Yesterday, 10:44 PM
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The good news is 1-2% lethality. ...
You may be interested in the WHO's best attempt at coming up with an infection fatality rate (IFR), something different than the confirmed case fatality rate (CFR): somewhere between 0.3 to 1%.
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Using an estimated number of total
infections, the Infection Fatality Ratio can be calculated. This represents the fraction of all infections (both
diagnosed and undiagnosed) that result in death. Based on these available analyses, current IFR estimates10,11,12
range from 0.3% to 1%. Without population-based serologic studies, it is not yet possible to know what proportion
of the population has been infected with COVID-19.
  #86  
Old Yesterday, 11:44 PM
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These are American patients from the Diamond Princess, which are presumably among the 634 "Other".
Probably right. However they are American patients now being treated in America.

DSeid, the lower number would be great. I think, that with the greater awareness of the virus, this could be accurate.

Recently feces has been identified as a possible transmission route. This is not great. Feces makes containing the virus much more difficult, even within a hospital. I'm not talking about toilets or water systems. Airborne isolation within a healthcare facility is pretty common and not extremely difficult. When you add infectious diarrhea to the mix it becomes a lot more difficult. Patients with this require much more care and there is much more actual virus being shed. More care and more virus being shed lead to an increased amount of infections among healthcare workers.

I have been surprised again by peoples reactions to this. Someone, I think it was China Guy, said that a possible reason for Japan keeping everyone confined on board the Diamond Princess was xenophobia. I said that never would have occurred to me. Well, now I'm seeing it among people near me. People on social media, including some in healthcare, are protesting moving patients to Spokane Washington's special isolation unit. People amaze me, not in a good way.

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Old Yesterday, 11:47 PM
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Hey; they aren't barricading the streets in Seattle yet, tho. Just watch to see if people are putting rocks in their pockets, eh.
  #88  
Old Yesterday, 11:49 PM
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76,718 confirmed infected
2,247 dead
18,464 recovered
  #89  
Old Today, 12:08 AM
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The back and forth in China regarding confirmed tested versus clinical diagnosis is a little difficult. I worry that they aren't testing everyone anymore, through lack of tests or simply being overwhelmed. That could influence the numbers being reported. I have no evidence whatsoever of that, just a thought.

I also am suspicious of Russia's 2 cases. Russia shares a border with China. I also seem to recall a, possibly untrue, story about people breaking quarantine in Russia.
  #90  
Old Today, 12:15 AM
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That did happen, steatopygia: Russian Court Orders Woman Back to Coronavirus Quarantine After She Escapes From Hospital.
Quote:
A Russian court on Monday ordered a woman who escaped from a virus quarantine to return back to the hospital she fled and stay under quarantine for at least two more days. The ruling underlined the chaotic public health approaches being taken to stop the spread of the new coronavirus from China.

Alla llyina was admitted to the hospital in the northern Russian city of St. Petersburg on Feb. 6 with a sore throat and was tested for the new virus because she had returned from China five days earlier. She broke out of the hospital the next day by disabling an electronic lock in her room after finding out she would have to spend 14 days in isolation instead of the 24 hours that doctors promised her.

In an Instagram post, Ilyina said doctors told her that she tested negative for the virus but still had to remain quarantined for two weeks. “Wild,” Ilyina wrote. “All three tests showed I was completely healthy, so why the hell the quarantine?”
"Because you're an idiot who can't be trusted."

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; Today at 12:16 AM.
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