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  #401  
Old 05-26-2019, 12:20 AM
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Yahoo! Sports: Warriors open as massive NBA Finals favorites over Raptors in Las Vegas
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Old 05-26-2019, 01:00 AM
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In the season series (one game each, home and away), the Raptors won both games. The first in Toronto, by three points in overtime, without Curry, and by twenty in Oakland, without Kawhi. Thus, Toronto's best bet is to bench Kawhi Leonard whenever Curry is playing, and simply weather the ensuing Kevin Durant 50 point outburst.

Ok, never mind. In all fairness, Toronto has a very good team. To dispatch the 76ers and Bucks, two young and impressive teams back-to-back, is not the easiest of feats. And the Warriors have looked lethargic at times. But since Kevin Durant's injury, they've dismantled the team built and coached specifically to beat them and slaughtered a hot, though tired, Trail Blazers team. The Warriors can rotate a plethora of very good defenders on Leonard, including, but not limited to, Andre Iguodala (when he's back), Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Kevin Durant (whenever he comes back). Lowry's good, but he ain't CP3 or Harden good. This is the same basic team that absolutely annihilated LeBron James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving two years ago.

Until the Raptors solve the Warriors offense, something only two teams have barely achieved in the past four years, they can maaaaaaaaybe hope to slow them down. But they don't have anywhere near the firepower to keep up. Warriors in five, if Toronto gets lucky and catches them napping. No one else has managed that in the Finals for years.

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Old 05-26-2019, 06:27 AM
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Toronto was ranked 3rd all year in defensive efficiency, and they just dispatched the number one team in that category. They've also now defeated 2 teams with offensive scoring threats in Phila and Milwaukee. Granted, the Sixers and Bucks aren't the Warriors on offense, but the Raptors will make the Warriors work both ends of the floor probably as hard as any team GS has faced over the past few years. And without KD that could be a problem.
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Old 05-26-2019, 08:27 AM
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I anticipate a very good series. Many are saying the Warriors in 5, but with that Raptors defense I think it’ll go 6 or 7. As the saying goes, offense sells tickets but defense wins championships. I guess that comes from Bear Bryant, but will it hold true here and lead to Toronto winning?
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Old 05-26-2019, 05:17 PM
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I said before that Iíd take Golden State in 5 over anyone from the East, so Iíll stick with that. I didnít realize at the time that game 5 is a road game for the Warriors, so maybe 6 games makes more sense. It just seems like the Warriors are too good.
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Old 05-27-2019, 08:22 PM
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Raptors in 7.
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Old 05-28-2019, 08:18 AM
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I absolutely think the Warriors are the favourite, but the number of people saying there is no chance Toronto could win just haven't been paying attention. I'd say the Raptors have one chance in three. Anyone who wants to give me much better odds than that, I'll take that action.
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Old 05-28-2019, 10:33 AM
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I haven't followed NBA nearly as much as I have in the past - haven't even had a chance to check out playoff games much, which is a shame.

The defensive stats for Toronto caught my attention though. I don't know whether they will win or even make it past the 5th game, but just their defense, Kawhi Leonard, and the quality of their competition leads me to believe that they're probably the most complete team GS has faced certainly this year, and maybe going back to Cleveland in 2016. This is also the one series that makes me think they might actually miss KD.
  #409  
Old 05-28-2019, 10:50 AM
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I absolutely think the Warriors are the favourite, but the number of people saying there is no chance Toronto could win just haven't been paying attention. I'd say the Raptors have one chance in three. Anyone who wants to give me much better odds than that, I'll take that action.
Well, the books have the Raptors at +240 or +260, so the action is there for you to take . Interestingly, though, I'm seeing that the line is Raptors by 1 for game 1, which seems strange since the Warriors are so favored in the series overall. Maybe the series odds are based on the assumption that Durant will be back. It doesn't seem at all certain to me that he will be, though.

Interesting note: the Raptors are the only team that the Warriors haven't beaten yet this season.
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Old 05-28-2019, 11:14 AM
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Statistically I don't see a huge conflict between Toronto by 1 in a home game and heavily favoring Golden State in the series overall. If you're going to give Toronto a point at home, and Golden State (just making this up) nine points in Oakland, that probably adds up to GS winning the series the great majority of the time. You're essentially saying the Warriors will probably win two games in Toronto, and probably will not lose a game at home.

I notice the many, many folks who laughed at the Raptors for making the Leonard-DeRozan trade are very quiet now.
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  #411  
Old 05-28-2019, 11:26 AM
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Yeah, I guess that's right. Making the Toronto games toss-ups and the Warriors favourites at home should make the numbers work out.
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Old 05-28-2019, 12:50 PM
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I notice the many, many folks who laughed at the Raptors for making the Leonard-DeRozan trade are very quiet now.
I don't think anyone laughed because DeRozan was better than Leonard, they laughed because it made the organization look disloyal and Leonard was likely to leave. I don't think either of those things has changed.
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Old 05-28-2019, 02:21 PM
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Statistically I don't see a huge conflict between Toronto by 1 in a home game and heavily favoring Golden State in the series overall. If you're going to give Toronto a point at home, and Golden State (just making this up) nine points in Oakland, that probably adds up to GS winning the series the great majority of the time. You're essentially saying the Warriors will probably win two games in Toronto, and probably will not lose a game at home.

I notice the many, many folks who laughed at the Raptors for making the Leonard-DeRozan trade are very quiet now.
Nobody here in San Antonio laughed, we just made the cogent observation that what Kawhi claimed the Spurs did is precisely what the Raptors did - exhibit a great deal of disloyalty to their best player.
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Old 05-28-2019, 03:25 PM
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First of all, it is simply untrue that all the criticism of the trade was based on the argument of "loyalty." That's just false.

I mean, let's look at the SDMB thread on the subject; the word "loyalty" is never once used by any person criticizing the trade. The criticism was that Leonard wasn't likelier to make the team better. One SDMB poster, for instance, typed this, nary a thing about loyalty:

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Toronto got a one-and-done player with obvious personality and behavior issues, one who sat out the most of last season with a mysterious quad injury which may or may not be healed, who has no desire to be there and has a history... a recent history, at that... of fighting with his team and, literally, running away from his responsibilities.

The common theme is that KL didn't like San Antonio. IMHO, the more likely explanation is that KL has no desire to be The Man on a team with a winning tradition. He was fine playing in Duncan's shadow, but once the responsibility of providing leadership fell on his shoulders? Did not want to do it.

Leaving HS, he was recruited by the following teams:

U of Washington
USC
UCLA
Arizona
San Diego State

4 major schools, 2 of which have won NCAA championships in the past 25 years (and UCLA is, of course, one of the more storied programs in the league), and which does he choose? The school where just getting to the NCAA's was the standard for excellence. (And, it should be noted, got to the NCAA's both before and after Leonard's two years there, making it to the S16 in 2013, a run of success which is more attributed to their coach, Steve Fisher, than it is Kawhi.)

I wish him well. I wish Toronto well. But they did trade for a guy who pouted his way out of $80 million, ran from his coach, and decided he couldn't carry on the legacies of George Gervin, David Robinson, and Tim Duncan. Good luck with that.
The same poster also referred to Leonard as "Kawhibaby" and "Kawhilitter," never mentioning, though, Toronto's lack of loyalty to DeRozan.

Good luck indeed. The Raptors have had their best season ever and they're playing with house money to win the NBA title. It's exactly what Masai Ujiri was hoping for and loyalty? It's business. What about Ujiri's loyalty to Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, Pascal Siakam, and all the other guys to give them the teammates they needed to make the Finals?
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  #415  
Old 05-28-2019, 03:28 PM
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As a Spurs fan, almost nobody in San Antonio laughed and thought that the Spurs got a better player by dealing Kawhi for DeRozan. It was well known that Kawhi was better. But Kawhi simply didn't mesh with the Spurs' ways or approach. At that point, the best you can do is just deal for what you can get. If a player doesn't want to stay you can't make him stay.

Last edited by Velocity; 05-28-2019 at 03:29 PM.
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Old 05-28-2019, 03:31 PM
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LOL. When I wrote

Quote:
But they did trade for a guy who pouted his way out of $80 million, ran from his coach, and decided he couldn't carry on the legacies of George Gervin, David Robinson, and Tim Duncan. Good luck with that.
... does this not strike you as me saying the dipshit was disloyal, just in 30 words instead of 1?

Note that I didn't remark as to the Toronto end of the deal where they absolutely lied to DeRozan, saying he was their guy. But that was "disloyal" too. If you're going to trade the guy, tell him. Don't lie to him and don't @ me with the "it's a business" bs, because you can conduct business without lying about it.

But the reason why I didn't remark about Toronto? Because I didn't give a shit about Toronto. It's that simple.

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  #417  
Old 05-28-2019, 05:31 PM
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But Kawhi simply didn't mesh with the Spurs' ways or approach.
That's revisionist. San Antonio thought he was the ultimate Spurs guy, right after Tim Duncan. The perfect late period complement and successor to Duncan's reign. Quiet, undemonstrative, coachable, low drama, tremendously skilled two-player. He was the perfect Spur. Right up until he wasn't.

I don't blame Spurs fans for disavowing him now. Even at my remove the situation with San Antonio struck me as weird. But he meshed perfectly fine with the Spurs' organization from 2011-2017.
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Old 05-28-2019, 06:09 PM
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LOL. When I wrote



... does this not strike you as me saying the dipshit was disloyal, just in 30 words instead of 1?
Literally four posts ago you claimed the criticism was that the RAPTORS were disloyal to Demar DeRozan. Now... um, what was the problem with the trade from the Raptors' perspective again?

Quote:
Note that I didn't remark as to the Toronto end of the deal where they absolutely lied to DeRozan, saying he was their guy.
Even Demar DeRozan is fine with this now. Honestly, what nonsense. It's a business, they made a trade, and it worked, and the folks who said it was a bad trade were wrong.

Sure, Demar liked Toronto and it liked him. Oh well. As a team executive, if you think like the fans, you'll soon join them. Ujiri made the right move at the right time.

Incidentally, whether Ujiri lied to DeRozan isn't actually something you know. DeRozan felt mistreated, but that's understandable; he didn't want to leave, was going through a really rough patch (his marriage was falling apart) and, hey, misunderstandings happen. He and Ujiri seemed fine with each other pretty shortly after.

Hey, you know who else was upset? Kyle Lowry; he was, and maybe still is, Demar's best friend. Ask Kyle today how he feels about the trade.
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  #419  
Old 05-29-2019, 09:01 AM
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Well, the books have the Raptors at +240 or +260, so the action is there for you to take . Interestingly, though, I'm seeing that the line is Raptors by 1 for game 1, which seems strange since the Warriors are so favored in the series overall. Maybe the series odds are based on the assumption that Durant will be back. It doesn't seem at all certain to me that he will be, though.

Interesting note: the Raptors are the only team that the Warriors haven't beaten yet this season.
Absolutely meaningless. Remember what G.S. did to Cleveland during the regular season the year that Cleveland (somehow) defeated them in the Finals?
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Old 05-29-2019, 09:06 AM
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Statistically I don't see a huge conflict between Toronto by 1 in a home game and heavily favoring Golden State in the series overall. If you're going to give Toronto a point at home, and Golden State (just making this up) nine points in Oakland, that probably adds up to GS winning the series the great majority of the time. You're essentially saying the Warriors will probably win two games in Toronto, and probably will not lose a game at home.

I notice the many, many folks who laughed at the Raptors for making the Leonard-DeRozan trade are very quiet now.
I like to think that's a safe bet, as long as the Warriors don't sleepwalk through the series the way they apparently did when they faced the pathetic Clippers ('course, if they "sleepwalk" through THIS series then they'll probably end up LOSING it, just as they did to Cleveland 3 years ago when they had SLAUGHTERED the Cavaliers in the two teams' regular season meetings. But they seem to have "upped their game" since letting the pitiful Clips complete that historic comeback against them in Game 2 and push them to Game 6 of that series)
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Old 05-29-2019, 10:06 AM
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Absolutely meaningless.
Yes, it's pretty meaningless. I just thought it was interesting in a bar trivia sort of way, not that it was particularly predictive of anything that will happen in the finals.
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Old 05-29-2019, 12:03 PM
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I like to think that's a safe bet
I don't think it is a safe bet, depending what you mean by "safe." I was just pointing out how the point spread is consistent with a high likelihood of a Warriors series win.
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Old 05-30-2019, 08:48 AM
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Yes, it's pretty meaningless. I just thought it was interesting in a bar trivia sort of way, not that it was particularly predictive of anything that will happen in the finals.
It's absolutely NOT predictive. I remember a few years ago an example from the N.H.L. when Pittsburgh took the season series from Boston (might've even swept the regular season series. I don't remember, for sure) and then got SWEPT from the playoffs by the Bruins. It's results like those that keep me from putting very much, if any, stock in regular season results when it comes to the playoffs.
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Old 05-30-2019, 08:50 AM
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I don't think it is a safe bet, depending what you mean by "safe." I was just pointing out how the point spread is consistent with a high likelihood of a Warriors series win.
I see that in attempting to counter what I posted that you conveniently left out the last part of my prior post. That is to say, the BULK of it.
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Old 05-30-2019, 07:06 PM
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Reassuring to hear Spearsy (ESPN's Marc Spears - funky dude) saying that in practice Cousins looked winded running up and down the floor. Hope to see Gasol against him.
Durant looking doubtful for Sunday's game two. Hoping Raps D can adjust when he does come back.
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Old 05-30-2019, 09:25 PM
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59-49 Raptors at the half.
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Old 05-30-2019, 10:05 PM
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Looking good; Raptors might actually pull this one off. But it would be an enormous psychological blow if they lose the lead. If they get a letdown and lose Game 1 like that, they'll be deflated entering Game 2, and we'll probably be looking at a Golden State sweep.


CRUSH THOSE WARRIORS
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Old 05-30-2019, 10:40 PM
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They did it!!! 118-109.

One down, three more to go.

The series will change instantly if Durant returns, but Toronto looked good tonight. I’ve got a fair bit of hope right now.
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Old 05-30-2019, 11:06 PM
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The Raptors looked good. It didnít seem like the moment was too big for them at all. Iím still pretty doubtful that they can keep it up, but that sure was a good start.
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Old 05-30-2019, 11:34 PM
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LOL. When I wrote



... does this not strike you as me saying the dipshit was disloyal, just in 30 words instead of 1?

Note that I didn't remark as to the Toronto end of the deal where they absolutely lied to DeRozan, saying he was their guy. But that was "disloyal" too. If you're going to trade the guy, tell him. Don't lie to him and don't @ me with the "it's a business" bs, because you can conduct business without lying about it.

But the reason why I didn't remark about Toronto? Because I didn't give a shit about Toronto. It's that simple.
RickJay > JohnT
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Old 05-31-2019, 05:36 AM
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[Moderating]

I'm not sure what that is about, asahi, but I have word that it's somehow dragging a BBQ Pit issue onto the rest of the board. Don't do that.
  #432  
Old 05-31-2019, 06:43 AM
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Amazing game, but after Sunday, I'm going to watch the games in the morning (can't stay up til midnight watching exciting shit before bed).... Toronto needs to win Game 2 and try to steal one in GS.. Can't sleep on the champs.
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Old 05-31-2019, 07:05 AM
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The Raptors looked good. It didnít seem like the moment was too big for them at all. Iím still pretty doubtful that they can keep it up, but that sure was a good start.
What I saw in the game makes me think Toronto absolutely can keep it up. Minus Durant, the Warriors are back to the 2015 and 2016 version of the team, which is good when they can shoot the lights out. The Warriors have been pretty reliable at spreading the ball, creating a mismatch, and shooting from pretty much anywhere they want to on the court. They've been such a great shooting team that this style of play has worked out for them...most of the time.

But as we saw against Cleveland, when this version of the Warriors, minus Durant, plays against a team that is really good at penetrating, pushing the ball closer to the rim, rebounding, and also good enough from the perimeter that the Warriors have to defend it, then they're not unbeatable. As I said earlier, the Raptors are probably the most complete team the Warriors have faced since Cleveland, and the last time they played a team like Cleveland without Kevin Durant, they lost in seven games.

What I saw last night leads me to believe the Warriors could be in some real trouble. Now it's entirely possible that the Swoosh brothers come out and just crush it shooting the ball, but that's only if Toronto's defense slouches off, and I think the Raptors understand the value of playing their style of defense. They're defensively a very quick team. They disrupt passing lanes and they don't just let teams take shots uncontested. I would not be at all surprised to see Toronto go up 2-0
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Old 05-31-2019, 08:18 AM
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Awesome for Pascal Siakam, who's a strong candidate for most improved player of the year, scoring his play-off high 32 points, the most in an NBA Finals debut since Kevin Durant went for 36 seven years ago. He's had a challenging play-off run so far, getting defended mainly by Embiid and then Antetokounmpo.
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Old 05-31-2019, 08:42 AM
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The Raptors can keep up their style of play for sure, but I was more talking about some of their scoring. FVV probably wonít keep banking in wild shots, and Siakam isnít going to go 14/17 every night. My original prediction was that the Raps would win game 1 and then lose the series in 5, so thatís still on, but I admit Iím wavering
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Old 05-31-2019, 09:58 AM
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Fearless prediction: the Raptors will not lose any game in this series where Pascal Siakam scores 30+ points.

I don't see anything to indicate that Toronto's win last night was a fluke. Marc Gasol is really, really good at basketball; the downgrade from Gasol to Serge Ibaka was really dramatic. If Siakam is on his game like he was last night, I'd say the Toronto rotation is just flat out better than the Warriors rotation right now, even if (if) the Warriors have the best player on the court. Put Durant back in the lineup, even in a limited form, and it changes the calculus... but not enough for this to be a walkover. I'd still pick the Warriors, but I wouldn't bet any money on it.
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Old 05-31-2019, 12:39 PM
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Fearless prediction: the Raptors will not lose any game in this series where Pascal Siakam scores 30+ points.

I don't see anything to indicate that Toronto's win last night was a fluke. Marc Gasol is really, really good at basketball; the downgrade from Gasol to Serge Ibaka was really dramatic. If Siakam is on his game like he was last night, I'd say the Toronto rotation is just flat out better than the Warriors rotation right now, even if (if) the Warriors have the best player on the court. Put Durant back in the lineup, even in a limited form, and it changes the calculus... but not enough for this to be a walkover. I'd still pick the Warriors, but I wouldn't bet any money on it.
I'm not sure Durant's presence alone would be enough, though. The Raptors would sniff out right away whether or not Durant is really ready go end to end for considerable minutes. The Raptors are different from the teams that the Warriors swept aside in the Western Conference. They're going to play more half court ball, which is when the Warriors really need Durant, but he can't be just a decoy. He will need to be productive.
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Old 05-31-2019, 06:12 PM
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What I would suggest is reasonably good news for the Warriors is that the primary statistical differences between the two teams were turnovers and shooting percentage, and they'd had ten days off. Being a little butterfingered with the ball is a predictable result of having too long a break.

They really, really could use Kevin Durant, though.
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Old 05-31-2019, 07:00 PM
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What I would suggest is reasonably good news for the Warriors is that the primary statistical differences between the two teams were turnovers and shooting percentage, and they'd had ten days off. Being a little butterfingered with the ball is a predictable result of having too long a break.

They really, really could use Kevin Durant, though.
I would also suggest that the Raptors' quickness had something to do with the Warriors turnovers and bad shooting. The Warriors didn't look like they had the same advantage in terms of quickness that they've had against other teams. Perhaps some of that is due to rust and maybe the Warriors struggled to adjust to the pace of a real game after being off for so long.
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Old 05-31-2019, 08:35 PM
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Despite Curry getting 34 points, I like the fact that of the 29 times Van Vliet guarded him, one of the greatest shooters in the game amassed two points.




According to Chris Hayes, it'll be game four at the earliest for Durant.

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Old 05-31-2019, 09:15 PM
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Despite Curry getting 34 points, I like the fact that of the 29 times Van Vliet guarded him, one of the greatest shooters in the game amassed two points.




According to Chris Hayes, it'll be game four at the earliest for Durant.

I'll put it this way: the Warriors need Durant to have a chance to win. And when Durant plays, the Warriors must win at majority of their games. In short, the Warriors must win the next two games, or they might be fucked.
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Old 06-01-2019, 06:56 PM
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Well it's not exactly a revelatory idea that if the Warriors LOSE their next two games they're fucked.

Were they to lose Game 2, and then go home and win Game 3 at home, I don't see how they are fucked. They would then be in exactly the same position Toronto was in against Milwaukee, and where are the Bucks now? You are not in trouble until you lose at home. (ETA: The Raptors were actually in a worse position against Philadelphia because they were down 2-1 with Game 4 being in Philly. Nonetheless, the Sixers are arranging tee times with the Bucks.)

The Raptors are a much, much better team than anyone the Warriors faced up to this point but let's not get carried away. The Warriors can absolutely come back from 1-0 or 2-1. If they fell behind 2-0 and then swept four games in a row no one would be all that surprised.
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Last edited by RickJay; 06-02-2019 at 12:59 PM.
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Old 06-02-2019, 04:30 PM
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Liking the Jurassic Parks popping up all across Canada. There was one in TO suburb (or independent city or whatever the hell you call it) Mississauga with a turnout of 20,000.

Vancouver, Calgary, Tuktoyaktuk (NWT), Burlington, Brampton, Halifax have their versions.

Hopefully Montreal/Winnipeg/other places will drum up something.

I might even have two beer tonight.
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Old 06-02-2019, 09:50 PM
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The Raptors are going to regret this game all summer long. What a hideous shooting performance from the entire team.
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Old 06-02-2019, 09:53 PM
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Well, the defense of Draymond Green, DeMarcus Cousins, and Andre Iguodala had something to do with that.

Last edited by JKellyMap; 06-02-2019 at 09:53 PM.
  #446  
Old 06-02-2019, 10:10 PM
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The Raptors missed plenty of wide open 3s today.
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Old 06-02-2019, 11:02 PM
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No KD, Boogie still getting his groove back, Curry being absolutely cold from deep, and Thompson leaving halfway through the third? Definitely giving the Raptors a solid shot at this one. Now you're gonna tell me they'll be up 5 at the half and hold the Warriors to nothing for half the fourth?

And they still lose, the dagger being a wide open Iguodala (1-15 since Game 6 against Houston) 3 with five seconds left? I don't know what to tell you.
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Old 06-03-2019, 03:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guest-starring: Id! View Post
Liking the Jurassic Parks popping up all across Canada. There was one in TO suburb (or independent city or whatever the hell you call it) Mississauga with a turnout of 20,000.

Vancouver, Calgary, Tuktoyaktuk (NWT), Burlington, Brampton, Halifax have their versions.
I am getting a kick out of the TV announcers saying, when the Raptors get a three-pointer, "Got it! That one came from Moose Jaw," or similar.

In spite of the Raptors' loss tonight, I enjoyed the game. The margin of loss was not very big, and the Raptors showed that they could stay with the Warriors--that this series would not be a blowout, in other words. I would like to see the Raptors win, but I think it will be an exciting, edge-of-your-seat series from here on in.
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Old 06-03-2019, 05:32 AM
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The Raptors missed plenty of wide open 3s today.
Oh ó good point. (I only got to see about half the game).
  #450  
Old 06-03-2019, 09:16 AM
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Well, the Raptors shot 37 percent. I mean, that's the game. If you shoot 37 percent you'll almost always lose; they simply didn't handle the ball well. Literally no one actually shot well. The Warriors defended okay but gave up a lot of offensive rebounds; Toronto would have won had they shot even reasonably well.

Golden State returns to being a clear favourite, as they have home court advantage. If Toronto can split the two games in Oakland, they get a slight-favourite tag back. If GS sweeps the two game set they'll be 95% favourites. It's that simple. Playoff basketball is like tennis; it's about holding serve and the Warriors are incredibly great at home.
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