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Old 04-20-2019, 10:43 AM
Exapno Mapcase is offline
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A bold prediction - Trump won't be president on Nov. 3, 2020


I've been saying for a while that I didn't think Trump would finish out his term. No, I don't expect him to be impeached, and I hope the Democrats won't try.

A health problem might do it. Trump is a walking heart attack. Or a stroke during one of his tweet rages.

But a new possibility occurred to me. It's so Trumpian it's downright scary.

Trump cannot let himself lost the 2020 election. He simply can't. It would destroy him. He'd much rather be impeached, since he could spin that as partisan hatred, the stuff he thrives on.

I know there's been crazy talk about him refusing to leave office if he loses. That won't happen. The reverse might.

My prediction is that if Trump is obviously, hugely losing in the polls before the election he will resign. Bang. Just step down. Make Pence president and the official loser. Trump won't care that this will dynamite the Republican party. He's never been a Republican. He's always a party of one. As long as he doesn't lose, he wins.

Trump won't be president on Nov. 3, 2020. Count on it.
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Old 04-20-2019, 11:17 AM
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I would prefer...
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Originally Posted by Exapno Mapcase View Post
... Trump is a walking heart attack. Or a stroke during one of his tweet rages.
...
Trump won't be president on Nov. 3, 2020. Count on it.
But I will settle for...
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...before the election he will resign.
...
Trump won't be president on Nov. 3, 2020. Count on it.
  #3  
Old 04-20-2019, 11:18 AM
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He didn't pull out of the race in 2016 when his polls were in the tank. He had adequate cover to do so. The guy fights just to fight. His narcissistic defenses are too airtight to let fear of a loss stop him. He's probably ok with losing because the "stolen" election will create an outraged right and a prime audience for Trump TV. I'll take your bet.

Last edited by KidCharlemagne; 04-20-2019 at 11:19 AM.
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Old 04-20-2019, 11:18 AM
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The guy's a comPLETE L-O-S-E-R but in his mind (whatever he has of one) he's a "WINNER" so I doubt he'll step away on his own. Hopefully he'll simply drop dead, first (Pence, too).
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Old 04-20-2019, 11:23 AM
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I don't see him quitting. I thought he was one primary away from quitting all through the last election. He'll get the nomination, the Democrats (NB: I am a Democrat) will mange to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and we'll be stuck with Trump another four years.
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Old 04-20-2019, 11:31 AM
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The problem with your prediction is the part about "if Trump is obviously, hugely losing in the polls before the election". This assumes a degree of voter rationality for which there is no evidence, and it's exactly what confounded most of the 2016 election predictions and created so much surprise and consternation when he actually won. I base this on the fact that some very recent polls just within the past day or so are indicating that the public release of the Mueller report has barely moved the needle on Trump's support numbers. Far too many people just don't care.
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Old 04-20-2019, 11:35 AM
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He won’t resign. With his size and age I would not be surprised if there would be a health issue.
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Old 04-20-2019, 12:53 PM
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Even if he resigns as you envision that doesn't automatically remove him from ballots. He could resign right now and still legally win the nomination and general election. Once he's got the nomination and is on the general election ballot, he's on the ballot until he withdraws from the election. That withdrawal has to be in accordance with various state laws. It depends on the multitude of state laws how long before the election the option even exists for the party to replace their nominee. States with early voting push that cutoff pretty early. Trump resigning at the last minute still leaves him on most, if not all ballots.Given that he's resigned before that election that leaves him facing what could be an electoral drubbing for the ages instead of merely losing.

That replacement process generally leans towards the state party organization making a choice by state laws; I'm not sure if any of them have special caveats for the President/VP ticket. Without those special provisions that means when replacement is even possible it could be literally anybody who expressed a willingness to file as a candidate with the FEC in order to take the slot on the ballot. There's a deep, state by state, dive into election law that's needed to even clearly frame the dynamics of what happens. Pence might get the nomination. He might not.

Color me skeptical of a prediction that relies on the election system working differently than it does in reality.
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Old 04-20-2019, 01:04 PM
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But the Presidential election is different. If Trump were to resign (and declare he would not accept the re-election if he wins), I'd assume the electors would still win and cast their votes for the VP candidate as President. I'm not sure it would matter at all who was the listed candidate.
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Old 04-20-2019, 01:20 PM
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Trump very much enjoyed running for president, even when nobody thought he had a shot. Once campaign season gets going and he is basking in the adulation of his troglodyte base he is going to be all in.
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Old 04-20-2019, 01:33 PM
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No offense intended to the OP, but if anyone thinks Trump would ever resign from anything, let alone the presidency, I have to wonder if they've been paying attention to this grand psychodrama that's played out over the past few years. Not gonna happen. He will have to be dragged kicking and screaming, if he has to be removed at all.
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Old 04-20-2019, 01:39 PM
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I'm all for him being dragged kicking and screaming, but when it comes to removing this failed game show host of a president from office I think all that KFC gravy running through his veins will succeed where the American political process has failed.
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Old 04-20-2019, 02:32 PM
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His natural death in office would be a blessing. An assassination would give him undeserved martyr status and I definitely do not want to see that. Given his size (239 lb- ha ha ha ha) , unhealthy habits, and mental instability he is a prime candidate for stroke or heart attack.

I don't see him quitting voluntarily, he will be dragged out kicking and screaming after losing the election. He may try to give an executive order suspending the results of the election and I would not put it past Republicans to keep kissing his ass like they always do. What I do expect is for him to pardon himself on the way out the door and I hope the incoming AG has the guts to challenge a self-pardon and put that fucker behind bars where he belongs. Life in prison is what he deserves, not death as again it would make him a martyr.
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Old 04-20-2019, 03:10 PM
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But... didn't the quack that used to tend to him as well as his current Navy doctor both proclaim that he was in amazing superhuman health, health that was on a par with his superhuman intelligence, so healthy that they just couldn't believe what they were seeing (or something like that)? I believe that Kim Jong-Un is the only other human who has ever been certified to be in a similar state of health, with metabolism so perfect that he never needs to shit.
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Old 04-20-2019, 03:15 PM
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No offense intended to the OP, but if anyone thinks Trump would ever resign from anything, let alone the presidency, I have to wonder if they've been paying attention to this grand psychodrama that's played out over the past few years. Not gonna happen. He will have to be dragged kicking and screaming, if he has to be removed at all.
It would be easy for him to feign 'serious health issues' and use that as an excuse. He does have some experience with that type of thing, after all.

Some posters have invoked the fact that Trump carried on in 2016 even though his numbers were poor to presume he would do the same in 2020. I think they overlook his differing motivations. In 2016 it was all a way to brand himself and get richer. Winning the presidency was not what he was after. Now that he has it, his problem is how to get out of it without losing.
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Old 04-20-2019, 03:20 PM
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He's going to go right from the presidency to the courtroom. He'll want to be President as long as possible because for some strange reason indicting a sitting President just isn't done.
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Old 04-20-2019, 04:07 PM
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Trump very much enjoyed running for president, even when nobody thought he had a shot. Once campaign season gets going and he is basking in the adulation of his troglodyte base he is going to be all in.
Yup. the polls would be "fake news" as long as troglodytes showed up for the "lock her up" chants.
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Old 04-20-2019, 04:19 PM
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All the talk about his health issues makes me roll my eyes, because it's just so much wishful thinking (much like the Muller report which everyone claimed was going to bring him crumbling down, while I insisted all the while that it would wind up amounting to nothing, which it did.) Trump is 72. Big, burly guys routinely make it well into their 80s. (I think to make it past 90 you have to be a little bantamweight type like my grandpa, who turned 90 last year and shows no signs of slowing down at all.) The taller and heavier you are, I think, the harder it is to get to that point. 80, though, is not such a stretch.

The fact is that if we want Trump gone, we have to vote him the fuck out. Waiting around for his health to decline is not an option.
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Old 04-20-2019, 04:22 PM
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I don't think there's any chance of him quitting. He will cling to power using any means necessary, as though his life depends on it.
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Old 04-20-2019, 04:30 PM
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Up until very recently, I predicted that if/when impeachment time rolled around, he would commit suicide rather than step down; now, I honestly don't think he has the cognition to follow through on something like that.

......and then we get President Pence, even if only for a matter of months.......
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Old 04-20-2019, 05:23 PM
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It would be easy for him to feign 'serious health issues' and use that as an excuse. He does have some experience with that type of thing, after all.
When bone spurs flare up late in life, it can be life threatening...
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Old 04-20-2019, 06:08 PM
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My prediction is that if Trump is obviously, hugely losing in the polls before the election he will resign. Bang. Just step down. Make Pence president and the official loser. Trump won't care that this will dynamite the Republican party. He's never been a Republican. He's always a party of one. As long as he doesn't lose, he wins.

Trump won't be president on Nov. 3, 2020. Count on it.
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Dems should have one and only one thought in their heads for the next 18 months: the defeat of Trump in the 2020 election. Stop playing games.
...the cognitive dissonance on display here is literally blowing my brain.

"Don't impeach. Stop playing games. Only keep one thing in their heads for the next 18 months. Defeat Trump."

"Because Trump is just going to step down. Count on it."
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Old 04-20-2019, 07:22 PM
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Trump very much enjoyed running for president, even when nobody thought he had a shot. Once campaign season gets going and he is basking in the adulation of his troglodyte base he is going to be all in.
Yeah, the whole actual Presidenting isn't what drives him. Campaigning? That is like the blood of virgins to him. He'l get up in front of crowds and ramble and make up shit and they'll all adore him. It is what he lives for.

So, no. He's not resigning. And he's not THAT old. He's probably not really that unhealthy, in spite of his girth and diet. And he's probably genetically predisposed to live well into his 90s.

Sigh.
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Old 04-20-2019, 07:50 PM
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...the cognitive dissonance on display here is literally blowing my brain.

"Don't impeach. Stop playing games. Only keep one thing in their heads for the next 18 months. Defeat Trump."

"Because Trump is just going to step down. Count on it."
The utter lack of humor in your posts and in the reading of others is dismaying.
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Old 04-20-2019, 08:06 PM
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The utter lack of humor in your posts and in the reading of others is dismaying.
...your OP was a joke-post? You don't want us to take it seriously?

Well okay then, if you insist. I suggest you email the mods and ask them to move this thread to a more appropriate forum.
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Old 04-20-2019, 08:08 PM
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Yeah, to avoid that big loss he'd have to step down way earlier than 11/3/2020. The convention concludes 8/27/20 and that puts him on the ballot. Even were he to resign he'd still be the party's nominee unless something drastic changes. And by early October even if they want to change the ballots it's doubtful they'd be able to. So Trump would still take the loss.
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Old 04-20-2019, 08:45 PM
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Yeah, to avoid that big loss he'd have to step down way earlier than 11/3/2020. The convention concludes 8/27/20 and that puts him on the ballot. Even were he to resign he'd still be the party's nominee unless something drastic changes. And by early October even if they want to change the ballots it's doubtful they'd be able to. So Trump would still take the loss.
Not in his mind, he wouldn't. That's my point.
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Old 04-22-2019, 06:26 AM
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My prediction is that if Trump is obviously, hugely losing in the polls before the election he will resign. Bang. Just step down. Make Pence president and the official loser.
He won't be obviously and hugely losing in the polls. He may be 10% behind in one or two polls, but polling is no longer an accurate science like it was 25 years ago. It will be a close election.
( Rachel Madow will be holding her breath all night long, till the results are final.)


Quote:
Trump cannot let himself lose the 2020 election. He simply can't. It would destroy him.
No it won't destroy him--- because he wont see it as a loss. He'll simply declare again that the system is rigged, and that he is the real darling of the American people. The election was stolen from him.And he'll declare how: because those lefties let 20 million illegal aliens vote.

Fox news will find 3 cases of something wrong (say, somebody with a Hispanic name voted using as ID a drivers license with an expired date), and that will be "proof" that the whole system is rigged.
Trump will spend his last 3 months from Nov till inauguration day doing nothing but running around the country holding rallies declaring that the system is rigged. The applause will boost his ego , and he will genuinely believe that he actually won, and the new guy in the oval office is the real loser.

Quote:
Trump won't be president on Nov. 3, 2020. Count on it.
Nope, I'm not counting on it.
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Old 04-22-2019, 07:09 AM
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I think the only way he resigns is if he craters with his base, setting up a landslide loss. I just don't see that happening unless the economy suddenly folds. If the economy starts taking a dive, then he and the entire GOP is in serious trouble. But short of that, I think he will be competitive. My fear is that the race could be so close in the EV that he could claim election fraud and then incite his followers to engage in political violence. I don't think it's enough for Trump to lose, we need him to lose badly.
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Old 04-22-2019, 10:08 AM
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...the cognitive dissonance on display here is literally blowing my brain."
If your brain was literally blown, I don't think you'd still be posting.
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Old 04-22-2019, 10:16 AM
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If your brain was literally blown, I don't think you'd still be posting.
...relax. This is a joke thread remember? The utter lack of humor in your posts and in the reading of others is dismaying.
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Old 04-22-2019, 10:23 AM
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He will have to be dragged kicking and screaming, if he has to be removed at all.
And he loves kicking and screaming.
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Old 04-22-2019, 02:20 PM
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I've been saying for a while that I didn't think Trump would finish out his term. No, I don't expect him to be impeached, and I hope the Democrats won't try.

A health problem might do it. Trump is a walking heart attack. Or a stroke during one of his tweet rages.

But a new possibility occurred to me. It's so Trumpian it's downright scary.

Trump cannot let himself lost the 2020 election. He simply can't. It would destroy him. He'd much rather be impeached, since he could spin that as partisan hatred, the stuff he thrives on.

I know there's been crazy talk about him refusing to leave office if he loses. That won't happen. The reverse might.

My prediction is that if Trump is obviously, hugely losing in the polls before the election he will resign. Bang. Just step down. Make Pence president and the official loser. Trump won't care that this will dynamite the Republican party. He's never been a Republican. He's always a party of one. As long as he doesn't lose, he wins.

Trump won't be president on Nov. 3, 2020. Count on it.
I just chuckle at the desperate efforts of people who hate the President to come up with ways that he's not going to finish the term. It's sad, really. Accept reality and face up to the fact that it's even possible he could be a two-term president.
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Old 04-22-2019, 02:40 PM
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I just chuckle at the desperate efforts of people who hate the President to come up with ways that he's not going to finish the term.
Chuckle all you like, but the only reason he might finish his term is because one half of the United States of America is rotten to the core.
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Old 04-22-2019, 03:11 PM
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If he loses, he will start 'The System Is Rigged' network that will make FOX look fair and balanced.
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Old 04-22-2019, 05:24 PM
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If he loses, he will start 'The System Is Rigged' network that will make FOX look fair and balanced.
He will do more than start it. He will be on it interminably. Always outraged except for momentary reminders of the splendour that was his America.
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Old 04-22-2019, 06:46 PM
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If he loses, he will start 'The System Is Rigged' network that will make FOX look fair and balanced.
He was intending to do that if he "lost."

This isn't North Korea, so watching it would be a choice. Say, what number is the public access station, anyway?
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Old 04-22-2019, 06:51 PM
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He will do more than start it. He will be on it interminably. Always outraged except for momentary reminders of the splendour that was his America.
Of course. He's an attention whore.
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Old 04-22-2019, 06:56 PM
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He was intending to do that if he "lost."
Yep, and it's clear he didn't have a backup plan for winning.
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Old 04-22-2019, 08:04 PM
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I've been saying for a while that I didn't think Trump would finish out his term. No, I don't expect him to be impeached, and I hope the Democrats won't try.

A health problem might do it. Trump is a walking heart attack. Or a stroke during one of his tweet rages.

But a new possibility occurred to me. It's so Trumpian it's downright scary.

Trump cannot let himself lost the 2020 election. He simply can't. It would destroy him. He'd much rather be impeached, since he could spin that as partisan hatred, the stuff he thrives on.

I know there's been crazy talk about him refusing to leave office if he loses. That won't happen. The reverse might.

My prediction is that if Trump is obviously, hugely losing in the polls before the election he will resign. Bang. Just step down. Make Pence president and the official loser. Trump won't care that this will dynamite the Republican party. He's never been a Republican. He's always a party of one. As long as he doesn't lose, he wins.

Trump won't be president on Nov. 3, 2020. Count on it.
It's an interesting theory, and it make logical sense for him to bolt before the music stops, saying he's leaving for health reasons...hell, you may even be right, he might leave with a toe tag from a heart attack, considering his age and the shit he does and eats. It will hinge on whether HE thinks he will win. I honestly think that, in the last election, he thought he would lose, and he was preparing his outrage when, amazingly, he won...and he had zero idea what to do. He was the most unprepared incoming President I can recall...it was laughable, with him supposedly being this great CEO that he didn't even have a team prepared for the transition (hell, here we are talking about the re-election and he STILL hasn't even filled all the positions he should have in the first couple of months).

But will he see it as a given that he's going down in defeat at this point? After all, he won last time when I think that HE thought he wouldn't. That might make him hang on, even if it looks bad. I hope you are right...I honestly hope there isn't a Trump in office for the re-election.
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Old 04-24-2019, 06:05 AM
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Trump won't be pres. if Iowa's longest serving Republican has his way:
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/23/polit...rty/index.html
(Must watch short news conference clip)

"I believe that it is just a matter of time before our party pays a heavy price for President Trump's reckless spending and shortsighted financial policies, his erratic, destabilizing foreign policy and his disregard for environmental concerns," McKean added.
"If this is the new normal, I want no part of it."
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Old 04-24-2019, 08:45 AM
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Trump won't be pres. if Iowa's longest serving Republican has his way:
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/23/polit...rty/index.html
More important, in my opinion, are defections by conservative mandarins like this one by George Mason's Antonin Scalia Law School professor JW Verret, an esrtwhile Republican enabler and legal apologist, who now calls for Trump's impeachment.
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Old 04-24-2019, 11:31 AM
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More important, in my opinion, are defections by conservative mandarins like this one by George Mason's Antonin Scalia Law School professor JW Verret, an esrtwhile Republican enabler and legal apologist, who now calls for Trump's impeachment.
As much as I hope you're right, I must invoke the

Remember all the never-Trumpers in 2016? Many mandarin-like Republicans were disgusted by him and tried to tell the rest of the party how he didn't represent their values and would cast the party in shame yada yada yada. Look how that turned out. Why would 2020 be any different?
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Old 04-25-2019, 02:53 AM
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He needs to win to prevent him from being indicted on crimes he was involved in when President or on the road to. Pence or someone later can then pardon him. Except he'll get picked up on state level crimes. So will his children who were involved. That man wants to win and hopefully fall ill in his 2nd term. Becoming President was one of his worst mistakes. Who gave a damn about his dealings before he ran? Yeah, he was an asshole, but no one spent months or years investigating him.

And if press pool accounts are anything to go by, he's always in a rage and yelling so loud they can hear him in the Oval Office from the press room, doors closed. The best thing Trump has done as a runner and as POTUS was cause so much tension in the GOP and cause them to go above and beyond because assholes that the party is slowly imploding. It's beautiful.

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Old 04-25-2019, 02:58 AM
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Originally Posted by DigitalC View Post
Trump very much enjoyed running for president, even when nobody thought he had a shot. Once campaign season gets going and he is basking in the adulation of his troglodyte base he is going to be all in.
He's never stopped campaigning.
  #46  
Old 06-12-2019, 09:41 PM
Crane is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: New Mexico
Posts: 1,092
There may come a time when McConnell and the Republican old guard decide that Trump will lose them the Senate along with the Presidency. If that happens they will make Trump an offer he can't refuse and he will resign. Pence will absolve him of all sins legal and political ending Pence's political career.

The Republicans are then free to find a plausible candidate - probably Romney.

Last edited by Crane; 06-12-2019 at 09:42 PM.
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