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  #51  
Old 06-12-2019, 09:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
Yes, this. All the actual work is being done by the guys in the back room. They all know Trump will throw his weight around whenever he gets a bee in his bonnet about something, but they also know he'll usually forget about it, or cave in entirely, at some point.

It's all about fluffing Trump's ego while the real work gets done. When the treaty is finally confirmed by all three countries' legislatures, Trump's ability to toss around tariffs at will will be limited. They just need to keep Trump in line until then. Fluffing his ego at no cost to themselves is the best option. A tactical retreat in support of a strategic win.


My understanding is that the proposed tariffs would have been contrary to current NAFTA and WTO. That didn't stop Trump from threatening to impose them, and the new NAFTA wouldn't stop him either.

The only thing that would stop him is if the Congress amends the laws to reduce or eliminate the President's unilateral power to impose tariffs.

I'm sure Mitch is working on that law as we speak.
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  #52  
Old 06-13-2019, 04:44 AM
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Going through the news, including Reuters and NPR, it sounds like Mexico is adjusting the mission of its new National Guard, turning southern border control from a cursory role into a substantial one. And it’s pretty clear they’re doing so in response to US pressure, and have agreed to deployment progress reviews with the US. Notwithstanding concerns about mission change away from fighting the drug cartels, that seems like a pretty big win for the US and its goal for reducing illegal immigration.

From Reuters:
Quote:
Deployment of National Guard forces to Mexico’s southern border will advance quickly under a migration control deal signed last week with the United States, Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said on Wednesday, although there were no visible signs on the ground late in the day.

Under the deal signed on Friday, Mexico agreed to take steps to control the flow of people from Central America, including deploying 6,000 members of the country’s National Guard across its border with Guatemala.

“Starting from today, and in the coming days, the deployment is going to progress rapidly,” Ebrard said during President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s regular morning news conference.

“A lot of things have to happen in 45 days,” Ebrard said. “We are going to do what we said we are going to do.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1TD1UI
  #53  
Old 06-13-2019, 09:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Wrenching Spanners View Post
Going through the news, including Reuters and NPR, it sounds like Mexico is adjusting the mission of its new National Guard, turning southern border control from a cursory role into a substantial one. And it’s pretty clear they’re doing so in response to US pressure, and have agreed to deployment progress reviews with the US. Notwithstanding concerns about mission change away from fighting the drug cartels, that seems like a pretty big win for the US and its goal for reducing illegal immigration.
(bolding mine)

A pretty big win for those who believe illegal immigration via the southern border is actually a crisis. But considering that ...
  • most undocumented aliens actually arrive via other routes and simply overstay their visas
  • many Central Americans traveling through Mexico have what may be legitimate asylum requests
  • even those Mexicans and Central Americans who do sneak across the border don’t pose nearly the security threat Trump says they do, let alone an “emergency”
  • (as you mention) this action reduces Mexico's ability to combat the cartels, which are in fact a security threat
I'd say it's a big win for strong-arming a friendly neighbor into an inhumane, unproductive action that actually worsens the situation. Well played, Mr. President!
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  #54  
Old 06-13-2019, 10:30 AM
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(bolding mine)

A pretty big win for those who believe illegal immigration via the southern border is actually a crisis. But considering that ...
  • most undocumented aliens actually arrive via other routes and simply overstay their visas
I quite dislike this talking point. Illegal border crossings still represent a huge chunk of undocumented immigration. "Why worry about the border? It's only 40% of the problem!" is frigging dumb.
  #55  
Old 06-13-2019, 01:46 PM
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I quite dislike this talking point. Illegal border crossings still represent a huge chunk of undocumented immigration. "Why worry about the border? It's only 40% of the problem!" is frigging dumb.
Fair enough. I'm actually all for reducing the number of people sneaking (or being trafficked) across the border -- by making the immigration and asylum processes more fair. But strangely enough, that wasn't part of Trump's big "victory."
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  #56  
Old 06-14-2019, 05:47 AM
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(bolding mine)

A pretty big win for those who believe illegal immigration via the southern border is actually a crisis. But considering that ...
  • most undocumented aliens actually arrive via other routes and simply overstay their visas
  • many Central Americans traveling through Mexico have what may be legitimate asylum requests
  • even those Mexicans and Central Americans who do sneak across the border don’t pose nearly the security threat Trump says they do, let alone an “emergency”
  • (as you mention) this action reduces Mexico's ability to combat the cartels, which are in fact a security threat
I'd say it's a big win for strong-arming a friendly neighbor into an inhumane, unproductive action that actually worsens the situation. Well played, Mr. President!
I’d be in favour of the US establishing asylum application centres at the Guatemala – Mexico border. Determine the criteria for qualifying for asylum and institute a quota of how many successful applicants the US is willing to accept on a daily or weekly basis. And then bus the successful applicants to the US. Having the ability to walk/travel 2500 kilometres being the determining aspect for lodging an asylum application and entering the US is a poor decision factor.

People overstaying their visas seems to be a separate problem from controlling the US/Mexico border. I’m sure that’s an area that also is in need of reform.
  #57  
Old 06-14-2019, 07:14 AM
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I’d be in favour of the US establishing asylum application centres at the Guatemala – Mexico border. Determine the criteria for qualifying for asylum and institute a quota of how many successful applicants the US is willing to accept on a daily or weekly basis. And then bus the successful applicants to the US. Having the ability to walk/travel 2500 kilometres being the determining aspect for lodging an asylum application and entering the US is a poor decision factor.
But that's so ... so ... reasonable. What's next -- one in Turkey for Syrian refugees, too? Panama for Venezuelans? Before you know it, we'll be overrun by grateful people who want nothing more than to earn a little money and build a life for themselves.
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  #58  
Old 06-14-2019, 08:07 AM
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Deployment of U.S. Agents to Guatemala Isn’t New

Quote:
Dozens of Homeland Security agents have been dispatched some 2,000 miles south of the U.S. border into Guatemala to combat what the Trump administration has called the “scourge” of increased migration.

The 80 U.S. Border Patrol agents and Homeland Security investigators will train Guatemalan authorities to build checkpoints and examine the papers of migrants heading north.
Part of the problem is that they would probably prefer if a lot of these people settle in Mexico, so I don't see the free bus ticket to Texas happening soon.
  #59  
Old 06-14-2019, 08:18 AM
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But that's so ... so ... reasonable. What's next -- one in Turkey for Syrian refugees, too? Panama for Venezuelans? Before you know it, we'll be overrun by grateful people who want nothing more than to earn a little money and build a life for themselves.
Nah, processing the paperwork of local translators.
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  #60  
Old 06-14-2019, 09:02 AM
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Deployment of U.S. Agents to Guatemala Isn’t New


Part of the problem is that they would probably prefer if a lot of these people settle in Mexico, so I don't see the free bus ticket to Texas happening soon.
Whaddaya know, a constructive approach! If we can help Guatemalans find a better life -- even in Mexico -- that's a good thing, even if it's motivated by our leader's ignorance and fear-mongering. Thanks for the update.
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  #61  
Old 06-14-2019, 09:49 AM
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But that's so ... so ... reasonable. What's next -- one in Turkey for Syrian refugees, too? Panama for Venezuelans? Before you know it, we'll be overrun by grateful people who want nothing more than to earn a little money and build a life for themselves.
Since you've asked, my answer to your suggestions is yes. The US, and other stable prosperous countries, should decide how many immigrants they want to accept based on humanitarian reasons. The people most in need of humanitarian assistance are going to be refugees who’ve fled their country and moved into refugee camps. It’s pretty certain that someone who has moved into a refugee camp isn’t an economic migrant.
  #62  
Old 06-14-2019, 10:12 AM
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Since you've asked, my answer to your suggestions is yes. The US, and other stable prosperous countries, should decide how many immigrants they want to accept based on humanitarian reasons. The people most in need of humanitarian assistance are going to be refugees who’ve fled their country and moved into refugee camps. It’s pretty certain that someone who has moved into a refugee camp isn’t an economic migrant.
I'm pretty sure we're in agreement here. (I was being snarky in the previous post.) I think it's appalling that the current administration has slammed the door on refugees worldwide when they are and have been a vital lifeblood for our culture and our economy. Even if they (gasp!) look and sound different.
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Old 06-14-2019, 02:58 PM
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My point of comparison remains Uganda. Poor as they are, they've been able to absorb a double-digit percentage of their population in refugees, and they're treating them as well as their own citizens. If Uganda can do that, why can't we? Is America not as great as Uganda?
  #64  
Old 06-14-2019, 03:11 PM
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... If Uganda can do that, why can't we? Is America not as great as Uganda?
Not yet, but MAGA isn't complete. Few more years, we'll be there!
  #65  
Old 06-14-2019, 03:20 PM
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My point of comparison remains Uganda. Poor as they are, they've been able to absorb a double-digit percentage of their population in refugees, and they're treating them as well as their own citizens. If Uganda can do that, why can't we? Is America not as great as Uganda?
That's something that might get bipartisan support. Give refugees a Uganda lifestyle.
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Old 06-14-2019, 08:58 PM
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...Which is still better than what we're giving them now. And you do mean giving that to forty million refugees, right?
  #67  
Old 06-15-2019, 01:50 AM
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Are you advocating building a Bidibidi style refugee camp near Cleveland?
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Old 06-15-2019, 08:38 AM
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Practically speaking, Cleveland probably isn't the best place for it. Someplace with more hospitable weather, and closer to the border they're crossing, would be easier.

But if you're asking whether I would object to having large numbers of refugees living near me, no, I would not. Heck, when I was a kid, my family hosted (as in, within our own house) a refugee family. And I still maintain that, despite being born on the other side of the world and speaking English as a second family, they're more American than I am: They earned it, whereas I just had a lucky choice of parents.
  #69  
Old 06-16-2019, 08:41 PM
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"It means peace for our time." With a tip of the bowler hat to Neville Chamberlain.
  #70  
Old 06-17-2019, 08:06 AM
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This assumes that what he's trying to do is to actually change something in the real world. His purpose, though, is just to give that appearance--to put on a show for his base. What actually happens is not important to him, as long as he can pretend that he has done something.
What are you talking about? Our esteemed president has never done anything like that in his life.
  #71  
Old 06-18-2019, 08:24 AM
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Sure it is; that's a huge change in the status quo. And Mexico said "okay" to it. The status quo is now "Trump says "jump" and Mexico says "how high?" Prior to this the status quo was "2 nations negotiate respectfully".

So if you don't see that change in the status quo, then yeah, we have nothing left to talk about.

If you see it, but you don't see that as stupid, if you don't see that as enabling a bully, if you don't see that as a serious tactical mistake in dealing with Trump, then I suppose we just disagree.


Mexico has learned the North Korean Lesson: Give Trump some small meaningless concession, and he'll act as if he's won the Superbowl, and all his rhetoric about tariffs or sanctions will disappear like a popped soap bubble.


Quote:
He added that Mexico is "doing a very good job of stopping people long before they get to our Southern Border" and noted that Guatemala is "getting ready" to sign an agreement under which potential refugees would be required to apply for benefits in the country where they first land

"Mexico, using their strong immigration laws, is doing a very good job of stopping people long before they get to our Southern Border. Guatemala is getting ready to sign a Safe-Third Agreement," Trump added.
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...ented-migrants



There's been no time at all for Mexico to actually be doing anything differently from what was being done a week ago, but here Trump is, lavishing praise on them.

Still think it was a bad idea?
  #72  
Old 06-18-2019, 08:39 AM
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Meanwhile he's claiming that he's going to start deporting millions of illegal aliens starting next week.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...aliens-1367012

Trump is a little wobbly right now, and it's showing. He's growing more and more desperate at the signs of slipping poll numbers for his re-election, and also by poll numbers indicating growing support for impeachment. You can tell because this is his go-to move: kicking brown people. He goes after weak and vulnerable opponents. He corners vulnerable women and sexually assaults them. He abuses vulnerable migrants. But he can't handle it when he's confronted with a Nancy Pelosi. He can't handle it when faceless civil servants relentlessly and fearlessly pursue justice. He expects people to back down. When they don't, he doesn't know what to do. So he goes to his time-honored tradition of beating up on the vulnerable.

Last edited by asahi; 06-18-2019 at 08:42 AM.
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