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  #151  
Old 01-30-2019, 03:16 PM
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I think it's a great idea. If we don't like his policies, he promises to remake them for free!

(Seriously, 150 posts and nobody made that joke? You guys are slipping.)

Real talk: he's going nowhere. To the limited extent I can imagine anybody voting for him, it would be a non-Trumpy Republican type, so I think his candidacy would on balance help the Democrats.

The most likely outcome I see if he runs is that Starbucks' business tanks due to boycotts from outraged partisans.
  #152  
Old 01-30-2019, 03:41 PM
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From Morning Joe via Twitter:

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"I must be doing something right to create so much interest and backlash from the Democratic Party. Some of it is a surprise, but we expected to see some of the level of vitriol but not the extent it's been." -- @HowardSchultz
  #153  
Old 01-30-2019, 03:44 PM
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From Morning Joe via Twitter:
Sometimes you're just disliked because you're an asshole.
  #154  
Old 01-30-2019, 03:45 PM
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Sometimes you're just disliked because you're an asshole.
What's he done that qualifies him as an asshole? (Asking sincerely, I don't know much about him)
  #155  
Old 01-30-2019, 03:47 PM
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What's he done that qualifies him as an asshole? (Asking sincerely, I don't know much about him)
Besides presenting himself as a white knight who's going to save the country without providing any policies other than ransack Social Security and Medicare to pay down the deficit instead of letting billionaires like him be taxed?
  #156  
Old 01-30-2019, 03:52 PM
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Besides presenting himself as a white knight who's going to save the country without providing any policies other than ransack Social Security and Medicare to pay down the deficit instead of letting billionaires like him be taxed?
Yes, I was kind of hoping for some history prior to last week. If the worst thing he's ever done is announce he wants to run for president in a not-well-managed roll-out, I'm not sure "asshole" is the word I'd use, but to each their own.
  #157  
Old 01-30-2019, 03:53 PM
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Yes, I was kind of hoping for some history prior to last week. If the worst thing he's ever done is announce he wants to run for president in a not-well-managed roll-out, I'm not sure "asshole" is the word I'd use, but to each their own.
Anybody who wants to cut Social Security and Medicare to fund the government is an asshole.
  #158  
Old 01-30-2019, 04:01 PM
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Perot turned out to be a nutjob and got 19%. if he stays in the race Schultz won't get a small number like 2% , he could probably get 10% barring any scandal. Libertarians are considered to be really fringe and they get 3%, he will beat that number easily.
Perot presaged Trump in his type of appeal, not personality or style particularly (maybe both nutty, but if so not the same way). Against the bipartisan elite consensus of their time, as particularly on free trade in Perot's case. Illegal immigration was not as hot an issue then but it's pretty sure he also would have been hard line on it, and again that's an area where the media and well educated left leaning people think only a few fringe ('racist') nuts are wary of both illegal and even large scale legal immigration, but it's actually a lot or most Americans to some degree. A very small % are in line with the Democratic primary base on immigration, though ironically the constantly repeated conventional wisdom is how out of touch the GOP primary base is on the issue. Fortunately for the Democrats, a lot of those people don't care that much about illegal immigration and dislike the Republicans more than they dislike the Democrats for other reasons.

But, Trump already has the traditionalist/right leaning populist part of the electorate, which partly overlaps with self styled 'conservatives', but even actual conservatives, who are often skeptical of Trump, don't have another choice. As much as the Starbucks guy might be labelled 'rightist' here, he's not. So not an alternative to Trump for populists, not for conservatives either. For some people who voted for Trump just to 'rebel against the system' a third party would be do that. But mainly Starbucks guy would take away votes from the Democrats, a little or a lot depending how far left the Democratic primaries and winning candidate goes. If by some fluke the Democrats pick a moderate, the Starbucks guy would tend to be an asterisk (and that moderate also surely beat Trump). If they pick somebody their base loves, hard left, the Starbucks guy could throw the election to Trump, who would be in a much stronger position to begin with.

So the freak out over Starbucks guy is a bit overdone, but it's not baseless if you want/expect to force the general electorate to choose between a Democrat their base thinks is ideal and Trump.

Last edited by Corry El; 01-30-2019 at 04:03 PM.
  #159  
Old 01-30-2019, 04:05 PM
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.. If by some fluke the Democrats pick a moderate, the Starbucks guy would tend to be an asterisk (and that moderate also surely beat Trump). ...
Do you think HRC was a moderate?
  #160  
Old 01-30-2019, 04:05 PM
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if it makes people feel better I read the general election debates won't allow anyone who does not poll at 15% in 5 polls and they also must be on enough ballots to get 270 electoral votes. They put that rule in back in 2000.
  #161  
Old 01-30-2019, 04:27 PM
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Perot turned out to be a nutjob and got 19%. if he stays in the race Schultz won't get a small number like 2% , he could probably get 10% barring any scandal. Libertarians are considered to be really fringe and they get 3%, he will beat that number easily.
I predict this prediction will turn out to be hilariously wrong. The only way he comes close to anything more than 1-2% is if the Democrats nominate someone to the left of Bernie or if Trump is somehow forced out and there are a lot of angry Trump fans who arenít satisfied with his replacement. Barring those two things (and at the rate things are going they are both highly unlikely to happen) he wonít even come close to 4-5%.
  #162  
Old 01-30-2019, 04:39 PM
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Do you think HRC was a moderate?
Uh, yes. Corporatist middle of the roader.
  #163  
Old 01-30-2019, 04:52 PM
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Given that your perception of the electorate was proven wrong, vividly, have you considered the possibility that your perception of people you think are "deplorables" is likewise wrong?
The president equivocated on fucking murderous neo-nazis. Anyone still supporting him is very much deserving of that label.
  #164  
Old 01-30-2019, 04:55 PM
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The president equivocated on fucking murderous neo-nazis. Anyone still supporting him is very much deserving of that label.
He also bragged about violating the consent of women on multiple occasions. And he spent years spreading a racist and evidence free conspiracy theory.
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  #165  
Old 01-30-2019, 05:04 PM
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He also bragged about violating the consent of women on multiple occasions. And he spent years spreading a racist and evidence free conspiracy theory.
and yet with all that the Dems appear to be super scared they can't beat him in 2020. ( all that stuff plus the really bad job he's been doing for 2 years. )
  #166  
Old 01-30-2019, 05:06 PM
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and yet with all that the Dems appear to be super scared they can't beat him in 2020. ( all that stuff plus the really bad job he's been doing for 2 years. )
I know! Almost as if there was a huge portion of America that was either stupid or evil. I wonder if there's a useful term we can use to describe them...
  #167  
Old 01-30-2019, 05:10 PM
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Jill Stein. Went on Tucker Carlson. To talk up Howard Schultz.
https://www.newsweek.com/fox-news-ji...-third-1311541
Now, this makes me wonder if our old friend Vlad has taken a hand in all this. Not that I believe he made an explicit deal with Howard Schultz. That seems unlikely.

But I wouldn't be at all surprised if some of Vlad's disinformation crew has been tasked with placing how about Schultz? He'd be great! messages here and there, for the purpose of encouraging Howard to give it a go.
  #168  
Old 01-30-2019, 05:16 PM
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and yet with all that the Dems appear to be super scared they can't beat him in 2020. ( all that stuff plus the really bad job he's been doing for 2 years. )
Why wouldn't we be? He won 2 years ago. It'd be terrifying if there was a 1% chance he could be reelected... and the chances are a lot higher than that.
  #169  
Old 01-30-2019, 05:18 PM
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foolsguinea, can we perhaps find a more dignified name for the hypothetical Democratic nominee and possible future President than "Ladypants"?
Um. "Kaberntsy"?
  #170  
Old 01-30-2019, 05:41 PM
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Why wouldn't we be? He won 2 years ago. It'd be terrifying if there was a 1% chance he could be reelected... and the chances are a lot higher than that.
I remember two years ago when many liberals were brimming with confidence that after a few years of President Trump, the Republican brand would be so badly damaged that there was NO WAY he could win again, and that Republicans would have to hang their heads in shame, beg for forgiveness, etc. Do you now see how wildly off-base those predictions were?
  #171  
Old 01-30-2019, 06:10 PM
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Dude. Trump is very likely to lose, and lose big, in 2020. He's a very unpopular president.

He could still win though. That is why I will oppose anyone who supports him.

I have a fire extinguisher and a smoke alarm in my house, and if you came into my house and smashed my smoke alarm and threw away my fire extinguisher I'd be fucking pissed off. Does that mean I think it's likely that my house will catch fire tomorrow? No it doesn't. But stay the fuck away from my fucking smoke alarm.
  #172  
Old 01-30-2019, 06:29 PM
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I remember two years ago when many liberals were brimming with confidence that after a few years of President Trump, the Republican brand would be so badly damaged that there was NO WAY he could win again, and that Republicans would have to hang their heads in shame, beg for forgiveness, etc. Do you now see how wildly off-base those predictions were?
Um, no. There's been one election since then and the Democrats kicked ass. There's a long way until the next election, but current polls suggest Trump is highly likely to lose.

I mean, if your only point is that many liberals tend to vacillate between irrational overconfidence and irrational pessimism, cheerfully granted. But if your point is that events of the last two years should have changed anyone's mind about Trump being unlikely to win re-election, I'm not sure which events you have in mind.
  #173  
Old 01-30-2019, 06:30 PM
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I remember two years ago when many liberals were brimming with confidence that after a few years of President Trump, the Republican brand would be so badly damaged that there was NO WAY he could win again, and that Republicans would have to hang their heads in shame, beg for forgiveness, etc. Do you now see how wildly off-base those predictions were?
I have no interest in indulging your weird, cite-free and incredibly vague fantasies about liberals.
  #174  
Old 01-30-2019, 06:44 PM
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Yeah, I watched Howard Schultz on that Morning Joe slot.

When I first heard Schultz was thinking of getting into the race as an independent, my first thought was, "I wonder what the Russians have on him?" And Trump was so excited about it as they went through their kabuki dance with Trump "daring" Schultz to get in. What a trash show. (Is Trump ever involved in any other kind?)

But I decided to listen to what the guy had to say. Maybe I was cynically jumping to conclusions. They let him go on for a fair bit.

All I heard was a slightly more literate version of, "I'm a smart, self-made billionaire so I can't possibly fail, and I alone can fix it."

Honestly, Dems could drive a stake through this guy's plans just by taking his own statements and interspersing them in an ad with all the same dumb things Trump said in his run-up to 2016. It's virtually the same spew.
  #175  
Old 01-30-2019, 07:14 PM
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If you're really worried that the next election might come down to 0.5%, you don't seem very confident in your ability to win handily after 4 years of President Trump.
Most of our worries have to do with the flukiness of our Presidential selection system, where someone can finish in second place by millions of votes in the popular vote, yet win the Presidency courtesy of the Electoral College. A Republican has only won a plurality of the votes for President once since 1988, and he needed the advantage of incumbency to pull that off. Yet here we are.
  #176  
Old 01-30-2019, 07:15 PM
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His arrogance is very unappealing. I hope he goes away very soon. I'm already trying to figure out where the closest Peets is at. He's leaving a bad taste in my mouth already.
  #177  
Old 01-30-2019, 07:37 PM
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He's the Starbucks guy. Everyone knows Starbucks. If he were a nobody, it wouldn't be an issue.
I've heard of the coffee shops, but I don't think I'd never heard of him. To me Starbuck is a Katee Sackhoff character. Anyway, it'd be like running Ray Kroc.

Edit: Or like Ray Kroc running, rather. And I assume that Mr. Schultz is cut from the same epithelial tissue as Kroc was.

Last edited by foolsguinea; 01-30-2019 at 07:39 PM.
  #178  
Old 01-30-2019, 08:05 PM
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I think that Trump has a very low chance of winning in 2020. But the odds aren't the only thing you need to know about a bet: You also need to know the payoffs. And the payoff of Trump winning re-election is negative enough that I'm still worried about that very low chance.
  #179  
Old 01-30-2019, 09:24 PM
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Can Schultz win states in the general election? I will say YES, especially if the Democrats pick a minority with positions to his left. The states I think Schultz can win are Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, and Vermont. All blue states.
Schultz doesn't have a hope in hell of winning any of those states.

Schultz is a joke. His maybe-candidacy is a complete and utter waste of everyone's time. To make any sort of headway, a third party candidate (or an outsider candidate like Trump) must at least be

1. Charismatic, and
2. Have some sort of clear policy positions, even if they're simplistic and dumb.

Schultz is as charismatic as a dish towel and his only policy appears to be that he doesn't want to pay more tax on his vast fortune. His campaign probably won't even make it to the election before he surrenders to the inevitable.
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  #180  
Old 01-30-2019, 10:07 PM
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So lay your bets.

Drops out,

Wins Naderish share, maybe 3%,

Or more?

I'll take "drops out" having accomplished what he wanted to accomplish which is not winning an election.

He wants to sell the idea that economic populism and democratic socialism is a losing message for the Democratic party. As one of the few with the concentrated wealth and power in this country of course he believes that. The prospect of a president who embraces the economic progressive Left scares him. For him even Trump is better than that.

He is wrong of course. Optimizing millennial turnout and appealing to working class whites, especially the Obama-Trump voters, will work best with some economic populism messaging as part of the mix. Meanwhile there are just not too many Ds (or leaners) who will vote for Trump rather than vote for a D who is too Left on economic issues.
  #181  
Old 01-30-2019, 11:05 PM
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He's not running. It's a tour for his stupid book, released two days ago. He's not Kamala Harris, releasing books and running for President. He's not even Mike Huckabee. He's not even Herman Cain. This is a stunt to sell books, and he will drop out in a few weeks.
  #182  
Old 01-31-2019, 02:59 AM
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He's not running. It's a tour for his stupid book, released two days ago. He's not Kamala Harris, releasing books and running for President. He's not even Mike Huckabee. He's not even Herman Cain. This is a stunt to sell books, and he will drop out in a few weeks.
I agree. Political campaigning is really really expensive and if he's going to campaign as a third-party candidate he'd do a better job keeping himself warm by literally burning the cash instead. Being rich does not guarantee one's success (although it is certainly better to have money and not need it than to need it and not have it) and Schultz doesn't have that shock factor that worked so well for Trump. It's like:

Trump: I'm an asshole!
Voters: But you're OUR asshole!

Schultz: I'm a middle of the road politician who's going to make everything better!
Voters: Never heard that one before...
  #183  
Old 01-31-2019, 04:03 AM
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I remember two years ago when many liberals were brimming with confidence that after a few years of President Trump, the Republican brand would be so badly damaged that there was NO WAY he could win again, and that Republicans would have to hang their heads in shame, beg for forgiveness, etc. Do you now see how wildly off-base those predictions were?
You're right and we were wrong. We made the foolish assumption that Trump's supporters were capable of feeling shame.

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He's not running. It's a tour for his stupid book, released two days ago. He's not Kamala Harris, releasing books and running for President. He's not even Mike Huckabee. He's not even Herman Cain. This is a stunt to sell books, and he will drop out in a few weeks.
So he's Marianne Williamson.
  #184  
Old 01-31-2019, 05:58 AM
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I remember two years ago when many liberals were brimming with confidence that after a few years of President Trump, the Republican brand would be so badly damaged that there was NO WAY he could win again, and that Republicans would have to hang their heads in shame, beg for forgiveness, etc. Do you now see how wildly off-base those predictions were?
And instead we have Republicans denying primary challenges to Trump. I wonder what they're worried about.
  #185  
Old 01-31-2019, 06:50 AM
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This experience informs Schultz’s current flirtation with an independent bid for president. “My exposure to their financial trials had instilled in me an aversion to debt,” he writes early in From the Ground Up. And that aversion is the centerpiece—the only piece, really—of his nascent proto-campaign platform. “If America was a company at $21.5 trillion of debt―adding a trillion dollars a year―we would be facing insolvency,” Schultz said on Monday night at an event promoting his book.
https://newrepublic.com/article/1529...sons-childhood

(Bolding mine.)

That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works! For god's sake, this guy runs a major company, and he doesn't understand how debt works?
  #186  
Old 01-31-2019, 07:35 AM
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Perot turned out to be a nutjob and got 19%.
Perot proves a third party candidate can do well. When he dropped out of the race in July, he was polling around 30-35% and for a few weeks had actually been winning. If he had not publically gone berzerk, and had stayed in, there is little doubt he would have done better than 19%; I don't think he could have won, but 25-28 percent is very possible, and it is quite possible he could have won Maine, Utah, Alaska, and/or a few other smaller states. And hell, you never know.

The thing is, Ross Perot, however fucking nuts he was, was a charismatic guy. Perot was an early bellwether of some elements of campaigning Donald Trump proved:

1. Simple, simple, simple. Simple messaging and sound bites destroy complex answers. Efforts to provide the public with nuance simply don't matter; they are always stomped by simple appeals to emotion. People still remember "Giant sucking sound." It was simple, visual, memorable. It worked.

His only other policy I can recall was his opposition to the Gulf War, which wasn't a super popular position to have but it was simple, and set him apart from anyone else.

2. Don't apologize. Just barrel along.

3. Charisma matters. George H.W. Bush was, midway through his Presidency, so popular that it was a common late night talk show joke that the Democrats had already given up in the 1992 election. In the end, though, he was up against two candidates that were immensely more charismatic; he was a good statesman, but he was boring. Perot had charisma.
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Old 01-31-2019, 08:14 AM
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Um, many many.

Monopolistic practices.
Lying.
Outright theft.
Lowering cost by avoiding regulation.
Bribery.
Lobbying for protectionist governmental policies.
Union-busting to avoid paying higher wages.

That's just the start. History is replete with examples of corporations pursuing policies that are clearly counter-customer best-interest to enhance revenue. Even lives are not always enough to control such impulses.

If such things didn't happen routinely we wouldn't need regulatory bodies like the EPA, FDA, Department of Labor and so forth.
Those things are against the law. Why do we need to distribute resources after those have been outlawed. See what you stepped in there?
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Old 01-31-2019, 08:24 AM
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Those things are against the law. Why do we need to distribute resources after those have been outlawed. See what you stepped in there?
And yet there's a long history of those things happening and continuing to happen in America. Why does your argument exclude all the lessons of basic US labor history?
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Old 01-31-2019, 08:37 AM
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the GOP brand is hurt by Trump but it seems like he may not be impacted by it so far. Reminds me of the teflon Don, John Gotti, Trump is a bit of a teflon president . If he runs in 2020 we will see if the teflon is still there.
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Old 01-31-2019, 10:49 AM
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And yet there's a long history of those things happening and continuing to happen in America. Why does your argument exclude all the lessons of basic US labor history?
Ok. So the government canít prosecute its own laws. Sounds like a you problem.
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Old 01-31-2019, 10:53 AM
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No, it's an America problem. Again, why does your argument exclude all the lessons of basic US labor history?
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Old 01-31-2019, 11:20 AM
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I think US labor history has been badly written since it was written almost entirely by marxists and other socialists. You must be aware of bias in this field as is a cliche at this point.

Last edited by WillFarnaby; 01-31-2019 at 11:21 AM.
  #193  
Old 01-31-2019, 12:34 PM
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That's odd, because usually history is written by the winners.
  #194  
Old 01-31-2019, 02:57 PM
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Schultz got the city of Seattle to give him the right to build a driveway through a city park that went direct to his private property, and didn't compensate them for it, including using the park as a construction staging site. After having re-landscape the public park to meet his personal needs, he then moved out of the property to another part of the city.

And apparently citizens of Seattle are still bitter over his sale of the Seattle SuperSonics.
https://www.salon.com/2019/01/31/wha...onaire-class/?
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Old 01-31-2019, 02:58 PM
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That's odd, because usually history is written by the winners.
Different domains have different battles and different victors. Academia and journals are different domains than corporations.
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Old 01-31-2019, 03:38 PM
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
I remember two years ago when many liberals were brimming with confidence that after a few years of President Trump, the Republican brand would be so badly damaged that there was NO WAY he could win again, and that Republicans would have to hang their heads in shame, beg for forgiveness, etc. Do you now see how wildly off-base those predictions were?
Republicans should hang their heads in shame and we don't yet know if the prediction is true or not.
  #197  
Old 01-31-2019, 04:01 PM
Thing Fish is offline
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Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
So lay your bets.

Drops out,

Wins Naderish share, maybe 3%,

Or more?

I'll take "drops out" having accomplished what he wanted to accomplish which is not winning an election.

He wants to sell the idea that economic populism and democratic socialism is a losing message for the Democratic party. As one of the few with the concentrated wealth and power in this country of course he believes that. The prospect of a president who embraces the economic progressive Left scares him. For him even Trump is better than that.

He is wrong of course. Optimizing millennial turnout and appealing to working class whites, especially the Obama-Trump voters, will work best with some economic populism messaging as part of the mix. Meanwhile there are just not too many Ds (or leaners) who will vote for Trump rather than vote for a D who is too Left on economic issues.
If he were a normal person who needed support from donors to stay in the race, I'd be confident he'd be out very shortly after getting in. but he could theoretically finance a full-scale campaign out of his pocket, and I have no idea what the chance of him deciding to do that is. Even in that case, I'd be very surprised if he cracked 5%.
  #198  
Old 01-31-2019, 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted by MortSahlFan View Post
I don't believe in spoiler-hysteria -- I don't mind who runs, but if this guy thinks the Democratic Party is too far left is a liar, because he can't be this dumb. It's not even centre-left!

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  #199  
Old 01-31-2019, 08:31 PM
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What does "left" mean to you, anyway? What typifies someone who is demonstrably left-of-center (for some version of "center" you wish to define)?
  #200  
Old 01-31-2019, 08:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
and yet with all that the Dems appear to be super scared they can't beat him in 2020. ( all that stuff plus the really bad job he's been doing for 2 years. )
As I've said before, I'm not concerned that Trump will win. But I am worried that the Republicans will arrange things so he "wins".
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