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  #201  
Old 03-12-2019, 07:35 AM
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Yes, a lot of the "We don't want the EU telling us what to do!" crowd seem unaware that in many, many areas the UK has been the driving force behind EU legislation. In financial services, for example, over 90% (IIRC) of EU regulation mirrors what the UK were already doing because most of it came from the UK.
Just because you can tell people what to do in certain circumstances, doesn't mean it would be hypocritical to not tolerate the opposite. I work in a cube farm and I get annoyed when my neighbors are loud even though I am not 100% silent, although I am quieter than average. What would be better is if we had our own offices so no one would disrupt anyone by talking.
  #202  
Old 03-12-2019, 08:36 AM
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Just because you can tell people what to do in certain circumstances, doesn't mean it would be hypocritical to not tolerate the opposite.
True, but it is pretty stupid for one to complain that you are being bossed about when you set the rules.

Anyway, the Brexit dream is dead. It is not sleeping, it is not pining for the fjords.

Of course its ghost lingers on - we might still leave the EU, and we can all agree that it probably wonít be quite as bad as the Blitz. But the original Brexit is no more. The Brexit where Europe is just a place for a gentleman to tour, collecting fine art and sampling the local prostitutes, where his future wife will source her cooks and hairdressers. The Brexit where a gentlemanís younger son might choose to farm in Australia or Rhodesia. Where a hard working man of the middling sort might hope to make a respectable career in the Indian Civil Service. Where Northerners of the lower order are assured a lifetimeís work in a dark satanic mill and a sturdy southern yeoman could live a life of bucolic ease among his herds and flocks. The Brexit where Irishmen know their place - in the other ranks of the army, and an Americanís role is to provide support as directed. The Brexit where if Johnny Foreigner gets out of line then the matter is simply resolved by the dispatch of a gunboat to the Yangtse, Zambesi or Plate as required.

The Brexit where a third of the world would somehow be marked pink on the map again - that Brexit is dead and this is its funeral. There is no future in Englandís dreaming.
  #203  
Old 03-12-2019, 09:26 AM
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So, that's a "No" from the DUP ...


...and the ERG...

Do we think the margin is going to be even higher this time?

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  #204  
Old 03-12-2019, 09:35 AM
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that Brexit is dead and this is its funeral. There is no future in Englandís dreaming.
I don't disagree. But the trouble is, it won't lie down. The Rees-Moggs of this world will go on dreaming, just as their predecessors in the League of Empire Loyalists did sixty years ago, and will go on making life hell (with the aid of bandwagon-jumping self-promoters like Boris Johnson) for any Tory leader who tries to engage with the real world on anything like mutually comprehensible terms. Until, that is, some leader or another has their Robert Peel moment (I wouldn't place any money that being Theresa May, nor on Johnson becoming a new Disraeli in 20 years' time).
  #205  
Old 03-12-2019, 10:00 AM
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So, that's a "No" from the DUP ...


...and the ERG...

Do we think the margin is going to be even higher this time?
I think its defeat will be narrower as there's already signals of some MPs who rejected it in January now throwing up their hands and supporting it.

But the question is, really, what happens tomorrow with the no deal/extension votes.

And how the EU reacts to them.
  #206  
Old 03-12-2019, 12:44 PM
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The interesting thing about the debate currently taking place in the Commons, is that the chamber is almost empty. Only a handful of MPs have even bothered to show up for the debate. They'll come in later for the vote, of course. But it seems there's nothing more to say, and they already know which way they'll vote. The outcome is not in doubt. May will lose, but by a smaller margin.

The crucial votes will be tomorrow. Those who want a new referendum will start pushing strongly for it. If there is a vote against no-deal, for an extension of A50, and for a new referendum, it's difficult to see how May can hang on much longer, even if another formal vote of no-confidence can't take place so soon after the last one.
  #207  
Old 03-12-2019, 01:01 PM
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even if another formal vote of no-confidence can't take place so soon after the last one.
I'm fairly sure there can be a vote of no confidence in the Government brought by the Opposition at any time, but not one by the Tory party in May as leader. Not sure which you were referring to, and this came up in another discussion I had recently.
  #208  
Old 03-12-2019, 01:01 PM
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it's difficult to see how May can hang on much longer, even if another formal vote of no-confidence can't take place so soon after the last one.
She can't be challenged for the leadership of the Conservative party at the moment (she got a year's grace after the last one in December 2018), but there's nothing to prevent a vote of no-confidence in her Government. If the Leader of the Opposition called for one, it would happen very quickly.
  #209  
Old 03-12-2019, 01:24 PM
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She can't be challenged for the leadership of the Conservative party at the moment (she got a year's grace after the last one in December 2018), but there's nothing to prevent a vote of no-confidence in her Government. If the Leader of the Opposition called for one, it would happen very quickly.
But the opposition still wouldn't be able to win a vote of no confidence in the government (unless more Tory MPs leave the party).

Theresa May, however, may still 'have to' resign if her policies are totally discredited, even though she can't formally be forced out.

The next couple of weeks will be interesting.
  #210  
Old 03-12-2019, 01:50 PM
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She can't be challenged for the leadership of the Conservative party at the moment (she got a year's grace after the last one in December 2018), but there's nothing to prevent a vote of no-confidence in her Government. If the Leader of the Opposition called for one, it would happen very quickly.
How does one become the leader of a party?
I recall in the recent Churchill film, MP seem rather disappointed that they will pick Churchill as PM.
  #211  
Old 03-12-2019, 02:06 PM
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How does one become the leader of a party?
I recall in the recent Churchill film, MP seem rather disappointed that they will pick Churchill as PM.
Different parties have different rules, but basically the leader is selected by the party according to its constitution.
  #212  
Old 03-12-2019, 02:23 PM
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242 for
391 against

The noes have it, by a majority of 149.
  #213  
Old 03-12-2019, 02:37 PM
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242 for
391 against

The noes have it, by a majority of 149.
Positive news for May - that's only the fourth largest government defeat in history!
  #214  
Old 03-12-2019, 02:43 PM
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I've got a question about the upcoming vote about no deal. What exactly does it do, besides perhaps showing that the majority of Parliament is against no deal? Absent anything else passing, or any extension by the EU, there is still going to be a hard Brexit, right?
  #215  
Old 03-12-2019, 02:47 PM
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So next will be a vote on a No-Deal on tomorrow I can't see many MPs voting for that.

On Thursday they vote for extending Article 50.

I guess it is up to May to suggest how long this might be and the EU will have to agree with her suggestion.

The failure of her Brexit deal is probably the end for May. She does not have the support of her party.

They will turn on her. What did she once call her own party? 'The nasty party'. She knows what is coming.

The Article 50 extension would have to by several months for the Tories to elect a new leader with a better plan.

Who next for this poison chalice?
  #216  
Old 03-12-2019, 02:51 PM
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And if the EU says "You've had plenty of time, no extensions", then what?
  #217  
Old 03-12-2019, 02:51 PM
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Is there any path to a new referendum, or some other means of stopping Brexit? What would that path consist of?

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  #218  
Old 03-12-2019, 02:54 PM
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I've got a question about the upcoming vote about no deal. What exactly does it do, besides perhaps showing that the majority of Parliament is against no deal? Absent anything else passing, or any extension by the EU, there is still going to be a hard Brexit, right?
The upcoming motions are amendable, and the Speaker has indicated that he is amenable to the House shaping what happens via amendment. The Government has clearly lost control of the process.
  #219  
Old 03-12-2019, 02:56 PM
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Is there any path to a new referendum, or some other means of stopping Brexit? What would that path consist of?
They need the EU to approve an extension of the deadline and parliament to vote to hold a referendum. I have seen some suggestions that the current default is to exit without a deal, and that parliament could vote to change the default to remain. That would be a tough vote, though, I think.

What on earth is Corbyn's game suggesting a general election instead of a second referendum? He can't possibly think that inheriting this mess will work out well for him or labour.
  #220  
Old 03-12-2019, 03:02 PM
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And if the EU says "You've had plenty of time, no extensions", then what?
The EU has already said they are open to an extension. They also don't want a no-deal brexit. It would be damaging to a number of EU countries as well as the UK.
  #221  
Old 03-12-2019, 03:12 PM
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Is there any path to a new referendum, or some other means of stopping Brexit? What would that path consist of?
The simplest method is for Parliament to simply vote to to withdraw the A50 letter. The European Court of Justice has determined that the UK can do this at any time until Brexit actually happens--and it requires no agreement by the EU Commission nor EU Parliament.
  #222  
Old 03-12-2019, 03:12 PM
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If Corbyn and Labour get behind it and there is a General Election and they win. That is one path.

But there was a strong Brexit vote in the Labour voting areas. Many Labour MPs worry they will could lose votes in an election if they don't support 'the democratic will of the people'.

Though whether they prefer to vote Tory given their abject failure to deliver Brexit, that is another question.

Another path is the Tory centre ground splitting and joining the Independent Group. There could be a swing to the centre in the Tories to appease them and they could start talking about a Peoples vote.

It is hard to say what is going to happen next. Both parties are very divided. They may start playing their cards after these votes are out of the way and parliament rejects a No Deal and asks for an extension to Article 50.

I shall be interested to hear what the EU has to say about the delay to Article 50 and how long it should be. Given that the UK government has been unable to come up with agreed position in 2 years. Is anything going to change it is only a couple of months? It is not as if May has been any where near close to getting support and there is no other plan on the table. It would take a long time to come up with another plan. How long? A year, two years?

  #223  
Old 03-12-2019, 03:14 PM
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I have seen some suggestions that the current default is to exit without a deal, and that parliament could vote to change the default to remain. That would be a tough vote, though, I think.
In the absence of an agreed deal, an extension or a revocation, the UK exits in the hardest possible fashion.

There is an agreed-with-the-EU deal, but that's just been massively voted against by the UK Parliament for the second time.

An extension requires EU27 unanimity, and they'll need a good reason for that to happen an election, referendum etc

Revocation is the only option available to change the default to remain.
  #224  
Old 03-12-2019, 03:21 PM
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I've got a question about the upcoming vote about no deal. What exactly does it do, besides perhaps showing that the majority of Parliament is against no deal? Absent anything else passing, or any extension by the EU, there is still going to be a hard Brexit, right?
It depends on the text of the motion presented to Parliament. I don't think it's been published yet. Possibly, it's still being worked on, or simply is waiting for final approval. My prediction is that it will be a motion to require that any exit from the EU must occur under a legislated withdrawal act. That will take no-deal off the table. It's been announced as a free vote, at least for the Conservatives.

What it won't do is overturn the invocation of Article 50. I'm guessing there will be an amendment, probably from the SNP, that will seek to do so. I don't think such an amendment would pass. Instead, Parliament will vote for an extension of the Leave date on Thursday. That should pass, but the EU could very well make counter-demands before agreeing an extension. Who knows what happens at that point. Basically, the government moved itself into a self-contradictory position, and needs to hire Schrodinger's descendant to explain a path out.
  #225  
Old 03-12-2019, 03:29 PM
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My prediction is that it will be a motion to require that any exit from the EU must occur under a legislated withdrawal act. That will take no-deal off the table.
That doesn't take no-deal off the table, not at all. Only passing an agreed WA, or revocation, does that.
  #226  
Old 03-12-2019, 05:13 PM
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That doesn't take no-deal off the table, not at all. Only passing an agreed WA, or revocation, does that.
The No-Deal motion has since been published:
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That this house declines to approve leaving the European Union without a withdrawal agreement and a framework on the future relationship on the 29th March 2019, and notes that leaving without a deal remains the default in UK and EU law unless this house and the EU ratify an agreement.
So not quite what I had predicted:
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Wrenching Spanners My prediction is that it will be a motion to require that any exit from the EU must occur under a legislated withdrawal act.
So it seems that no-deal is still on the table. However, Labour MP Mary Creagh is trying to take it off the table. Also, Jeremy Corbyn has stated that he wants no-deal off the table. So no obligations on Government yet, but in 20 hours, who knows?
  #227  
Old 03-12-2019, 05:33 PM
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Is there anything at all that would get a majority in Parliament? May's deal? No. New referendum? No. Rescind Article 50? No. No deal Brexit? No.

The only thing that does get a majority is a statement of purpose that Parliament does not want a no-deal, but does anyone have a majority support for any path forward?
  #228  
Old 03-12-2019, 05:34 PM
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The No-Deal motion has since been published:
Yes, and it is yet another restatement of the legal position that has pertained ever since Article 50 was invoked. Parliament cannot legislate to prevent no-deal by fiat - there must be an agreement, or a revocation, to prevent no-deal. An extension merely delays that choice.

This has been the case for nearly two years now, and yet it still doesn't seem to have sunk in.
  #229  
Old 03-12-2019, 06:13 PM
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The only thing that does get a majority is a statement of purpose that Parliament does not want a no-deal, but does anyone have a majority support for any path forward?
I think there's probably a Parliamentary majority for a Norway-type arrangement. How to get there from here though...
  #230  
Old 03-12-2019, 06:30 PM
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I'm amused by the fact that this thing has gotten so complicated that CNN had to post a freaking flowchart to show the possible options! From the flowchart, the path forward in summary seems to be "leave with no deal" in one step or two voting steps, or vote for a delay and face an unknown period of uncertainty. Sadly, "forget the whole damn thing and we're sorry we ever had this stupid referendum" is not presently an option.
  #231  
Old 03-12-2019, 07:41 PM
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I'm amused by the fact that this thing has gotten so complicated that CNN had to post a freaking flowchart to show the possible options! From the flowchart, the path forward in summary seems to be "leave with no deal" in one step or two voting steps, or vote for a delay and face an unknown period of uncertainty. Sadly, "forget the whole damn thing and we're sorry we ever had this stupid referendum" is not presently an option.
It absolutely is an option. CNN have simply chosen not to include it in their table - on the basis, I think, that the table only explores the options which flow from the motions the government will be moving.
  #232  
Old 03-12-2019, 07:48 PM
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Yes, and it is yet another restatement of the legal position that has pertained ever since Article 50 was invoked. Parliament cannot legislate to prevent no-deal by fiat - there must be an agreement, or a revocation, to prevent no-deal. An extension merely delays that choice.

This has been the case for nearly two years now, and yet it still doesn't seem to have sunk in.

How strikingly accurate Lord Buckethead was...
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  #233  
Old 03-12-2019, 08:39 PM
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I think there's probably a Parliamentary majority for a Norway-type arrangement. How to get there from here though...
What is the benefit of a Norway agreement? It seems like they are an EU member in every way but in name, have no representation, and pay more for the privilege. Remain would seem a far superior option.
  #234  
Old 03-12-2019, 08:57 PM
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What is the benefit of a Norway agreement? It seems like they are an EU member in every way but in name, have no representation, and pay more for the privilege. Remain would seem a far superior option.
Same benefit as it has for Norway; it represents a compromise which takes account of the concerns of both leavers and remainers, and thereby manages to secure assent in a way that no hard brexit has been able to.

Remain is a far superior option - if you're a remainer. But remainers were a minority (a large minority, but a minority) at the time of the refernedum, and even now are at best small majority. The dysfunction of a "winner-takes-all" approach to this question must by now be obvious. The UK has yet to grasp what the Norwegians have known all along; a viable position here requires buy-in from both sides.

And, incidentally, Norway aren't in the EU "in everything but name"; there are signficant differences between Norway's position and that of a Member State. Whether a brexiter thinks those differences matter depends on why they wanted Brexit in the first place and, as we know, different Brexiters want to Brexit for different reasons. But if you're a Brexiter of the school that says "we joined a common market which has since morphed into a sinister political project", and who wants to retain the economic benefits of EU membership without political elements, the Norway option has much to offer . All the economic benefits of the single market, but no tiresome commitment to "ever closer union", no obligation to adopt the euro, no political or defence co-operation.

Last edited by UDS; 03-12-2019 at 09:01 PM.
  #235  
Old 03-12-2019, 09:02 PM
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Same benefit as it has for Norway; it represents a compromise which takes account of the concerns of both leavers and remainers, and thereby manages to secure assent in a way that no hard brexit has been able to.

Remain is a far superior option - if you're a remainer. But remainers were a minority (a large minority, but a minority) at the time of the refernedum, and even now are at best small majority. The dysfunction of a "winner-takes-all" approach to this question must by now be obvious. The UK has yet to grasp what the Norwegians have known all along; a viable position here requires buy-in from both sides.
So, as a Remainer, you would rather Remain than have Norway. If you were a Leaver, you would rather have a "real" break with the EU. This compromise seems like instead of everyone getting a little of what they want, nobody gets anything they want. Almost like Solomon offering to split the baby.

How could that possibly command a majority in the Commons?
  #236  
Old 03-12-2019, 09:34 PM
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I come to this thread from time to time as an increasingly bewildered American who used to think our politics was dysfunctional.

How can May's government have possibly survived all of this? It's been clear - as it can be - to me that she's been ineffective for years in her role. Now some of that is the fact that she's faced with an insoluble problem. The British voters wanted Brexit so long as they faced no consequences. That appears to be what they were promised, isn't it?

How are the MPs who overpromised still involved in government in any way? Shouldn't the voters have slapped them down by now?

As I said: bewildered.
  #237  
Old 03-12-2019, 09:53 PM
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I come to this thread from time to time as an increasingly bewildered American who used to think our politics was dysfunctional.

How can May's government have possibly survived all of this? It's been clear - as it can be - to me that she's been ineffective for years in her role. Now some of that is the fact that she's faced with an insoluble problem. The British voters wanted Brexit so long as they faced no consequences. That appears to be what they were promised, isn't it?

How are the MPs who overpromised still involved in government in any way? Shouldn't the voters have slapped them down by now?

As I said: bewildered.
As a somewhat ill-informed American, allow me to lay this theory in front of you.

While I imagine there's some hoop-jumping to be done, Labour could have and can at some point call for a new election, but as yet have not done so. It's not like it's required, after all.
I suspect that they're waiting for everything to go pear-shaped, hard exit and all, and then call for election and reap the electoral benefits from all the problems that Brexit will cause.
Additionally, I doubt anyone wants to be governing at this time; Brexit is political poison no matter what happens. Why not wait, and pick up the pieces later?

Like I say, I'm an interested amateur in this matter, so take my thoughts for what they're worth.

******

Okay, let me just check something here. At this point, there appear to be three possibilities:
1) Some sort of extension - kicking the can down the road a few months, then returning to where we are now.
2) Hard Brexit
3) Withdrawal of Article 50

I'm betting on #1 for now, then #2 when the extension runs out, simply because there doesn't appear to be any British politician willing to lead. The closest thing to a "good" choice I can see would be withdrawing the Article 50, and staying in the EU - and that would cause a firestorm, possibly literally.

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  #238  
Old 03-12-2019, 10:00 PM
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How can May's government have possibly survived all of this? It's been clear - as it can be - to me that she's been ineffective for years in her role.
I'm slightly skeptical that someone else would have been more effective within the same constraints May put on herself. But I think her continued survival has much to do with the fact that no one else in the tory party is particularly interested in getting their own turn in the barrel.

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  #239  
Old 03-12-2019, 10:02 PM
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So, as a Remainer, you would rather Remain than have Norway. If you were a Leaver, you would rather have a "real" break with the EU. This compromise seems like instead of everyone getting a little of what they want, nobody gets anything they want . . .
Did you mean to say ". . . nobody gets everything they want" here? Because, if you did, I agree. But if you meant what you wrote, no, I disagree. Brexiters get an actual Brexit; the UK ceases to be a member state. And they get at least some of the outcomes for which they consider Brexit to be desirable. And, while remainers don't get what they most want, continuing membership, they do get to avoid some of the worst anticipated consequences of Brexit.

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How could that possibly command a majority in the Commons?
How does it command a majority in Norway?

It could command a majority very easily. A large (but minority) group of remainers might support it because they regard it as the best attainable outcome, "Remain" being precluded by the referendum result/attitudes of the leadership in both parties/other unpleasant political realities. And Brexiters might support it either because it actually addresses the reasons they support Brexit (if "ever closer union" etc is their particular bugbear) or because they regard it as suboptimal but still preferable to a no-deal Brexit. And those groups together could easily be a majority of the Commons.

Last edited by UDS; 03-12-2019 at 10:04 PM.
  #240  
Old 03-12-2019, 10:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Inner Stickler View Post
I'm slightly skeptical that someone else would have been more effective within the same constraints May put on herself.
Someone else could have been more effective, obviously, by not putting on themselves the constraints that May chose for herself. It's no defence of May to say that she has done the best she could within the constraints she adopted; her ineffectiveness starts precisely with the adoption of those constraints.
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Old 03-12-2019, 10:11 PM
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Now some of that is the fact that she's faced with an insoluble problem. The British voters wanted Brexit so long as they faced no consequences. That appears to be what they were promised, isn't it?

How are the MPs who overpromised still involved in government in any way? Shouldn't the voters have slapped them down by now?

At the same time, how is that not the fault of those low information, low interest voters ? And what alternative *do* they have to slap them down with ? It's not like there's a magic party or politician that will give them an exit from the EU without any negative consequence or changes to the way things are done, all free of charge and with a complimentary handjob.
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  #242  
Old 03-12-2019, 10:12 PM
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Originally Posted by galen ubal View Post
As a somewhat ill-informed American, allow me to lay this theory in front of you.

While I imagine there's some hoop-jumping to be done, Labour could have and can at some point call for a new election, but as yet have not done so. It's not like it's required, after all.
I suspect that they're waiting for everything to go pear-shaped, hard exit and all, and then call for election and reap the electoral benefits from all the problems that Brexit will cause.
Labour can call for an election, just like they can call for anything else, but it doesn't follow that what they call for will be delivered. They're the opposition; they don't command a majority in parliament. They will usually be outvoted.

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Originally Posted by galen ubal View Post
Okay, let me just check something here. At this point, there appear to be three possibilities:
1) Some sort of extension - kicking the can down the road a few months, then returning to where we are now.
2) Hard Brexit
3) Withdrawal of Article 50

I'm betting on #1 for now, then #2 when the extension runs out, simply because there doesn't appear to be any British politician willing to lead. The closest thing to a "good" choice I can see would be withdrawing the Article 50, and staying in the EU - and that would cause a firestorm, possibly literally.
Well, there is also the a fourth option, of endorsing the deal negotiated with the EU. True, Parliament has voted to reject it twice, but if they can vote twice they can vote three times, and therefore they can accept it. Whether they are likely to do so is another matter, but it is certainly open to them.

There's a view that they have rejected it so far in part because the option of further delay remains available, and therefore rejecting it does not irrevocably commit them either to a no-deal brexit or to revocation, or to the choice between those two options. But at some point the option of more delay runs out, and at that point it's possible we may discover that, much and all as they dislike May's deal, they prefer it to no-deal.

Last edited by UDS; 03-12-2019 at 10:17 PM.
  #243  
Old 03-12-2019, 10:30 PM
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Someone else could have been more effective, obviously, by not putting on themselves the constraints that May chose for herself. It's no defence of May to say that she has done the best she could within the constraints she adopted; her ineffectiveness starts precisely with the adoption of those constraints.
And I certainly think it makes sense to criticize May on the soundness of her red lines and her refusal to abandon or revise them as time went on. But "things would be different if things had been different" isn't a particularly illuminating take.
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Old 03-12-2019, 11:00 PM
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And I certainly think it makes sense to criticize May on the soundness of her red lines and her refusal to abandon or revise them as time went on. But "things would be different if things had been different" isn't a particularly illuminating take.
But "things would have been different if May hadn't made them as they are" is.
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Old 03-12-2019, 11:19 PM
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Here's a BBC article, with helpful flow charts, as to what could happen next.
  #246  
Old 03-12-2019, 11:47 PM
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While I imagine there's some hoop-jumping to be done, Labour could have and can at some point call for a new election, but as yet have not done so. It's not like it's required, after all.
This is not correct. Labour have repeatedly called for a new general election. In fact, Corbyn called for a general election yet again last night, immediately after the result of the vote was announced.

But they do not have a majority in parliament to force an early general election.
  #247  
Old 03-12-2019, 11:50 PM
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This is not correct. Labour have repeatedly called for a new general election. In fact, Corbyn called for a general election yet again last night, immediately after the result of the vote was announced.

But they do not have a majority in parliament to force an early general election.
Thanks. As I've said, I'm a bit unsure of the system.
  #248  
Old 03-13-2019, 12:07 AM
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I think there is now a reasonable chance for another referendum.

- There will be a vote today excluding the possibility of no-deal. This should pass by a large majority.
- There will be a vote on Thursday to extend article 50. Again, it's likely this will pass.

There will then be further votes on several options, and if Labour supports a new referendum, backed by the other opposition parties and a few Tories, they may well win the vote. Of course, it depends what precisely the question(s) will be in the new referendum, and this will be a matter of hard negotiation.

The EU will certainly be willing to extend article 50 to accommodate another referendum.

And Remain will likely win a further referendum... then the UK can wake up from the whole bad dream.

This is the most positive outcome, and it seems to be a real possibility. There is a growing feeling in Parliament that since there is no majority for any option, the only thing left to do is to put the question back to the public again.
  #249  
Old 03-13-2019, 12:44 AM
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I applaud the developments, the prospect of blue skies being resumed and the possibility of the BREXIT omelette being unscrambled expediently by denying the eggs were ever scrambled in the first play, 'twas just a national acid trip or summat.

.... but riddle me this .... what happens if the 2nd referendum is 51:49 or tighter either way?

And as a supplementary, if a large majority passes the motion of excluding "no deal" what do the Hard BREXITers do? They accept that as a vote of no confidence in their stand and take their medicine/medication or continue as malignant spoilers?
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Old 03-13-2019, 01:00 AM
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I applaud the developments, the prospect of blue skies being resumed and the possibility of the BREXIT omelette being unscrambled expediently by denying the eggs were ever scrambled in the first play, 'twas just a national acid trip or summat.

.... but riddle me this .... what happens if the 2nd referendum is 51:49 or tighter either way?
Nobody [sane] imagines that a second referendum could settle the question to general satisfaction. Ambitions are much more limited; it's enough that a second referendum would actually make a choice, which Parliament is evidently unwilling or unable to do. It would be a choice that would deeply dissatisfy a large minority of people, but that's going to be the case regardless of how the choice is made.

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Originally Posted by penultima thule View Post
And as a supplementary, if a large majority passes the motion of excluding "no deal" what do the Hard BREXITers do? They accept that as a vote of no confidence in their stand and take their medicine/medication or continue as malignant spoilers?
They carry on. A motion declaring against no deal is not an effective decision to exclude no deal; for that Parliament must affirmatively choose (a) a deal with the EU [that the EU is willing to make - it should be necessary to say that, but apparently it is], or (b) revocation of Art. 50. And as long as Parliament does neither of these things, supporters of no-deal will carry on, since Parliament has chosen to leave the possibility of no-deal open - or, at any rate, has not chosen to close it off. And why would its supporters abandon it if its enemies choose not to exclude it?

Last edited by UDS; 03-13-2019 at 01:01 AM.
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