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  #151  
Old 06-20-2019, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted by SlackerInc View Post
They don't need to be. They are 1.4 million, going from 0% turnout to whatever low turnout they end up being. Even if that's only like 25%, that's a lot of new voters added to the system.
Why letting ex-felons vote probably won’t swing Florida
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One thing that limits the electoral impact of restoring ex-felons’ voting rights is that they turn out at particularly low rates. To demonstrate this, we first look to the population of ex-felons who were restored the right to vote under Crist and calculate what share voted in 2016. We find that just 16 percent of black and 12 percent of nonblack ex-felons voted.
[...]
Florida’s Democrats would stand to gain some votes by extending the franchise, but the net gain of 48,000 votes is only about one-quarter of 1 percent of the more than 15 million people of voting age in Florida. Such evidence cannot support the stronger claim that Trump would have lost the state in 2016 but for criminal disenfranchisement.
It might make some difference but I wouldn't pin too much on it.
  #152  
Old 06-20-2019, 11:46 AM
kaylasdad99 is offline
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Originally Posted by CarnalK View Post
Why letting ex-felons vote probably won’t swing Florida
Quote:
One thing that limits the electoral impact of restoring ex-felons’ voting rights is that they turn out at particularly low rates. To demonstrate this, we first look to the population of ex-felons who were restored the right to vote under Crist and calculate what share voted in 2016. We find that just 16 percent of black and 12 percent of nonblack ex-felons voted.
[...]
Florida’s Democrats would stand to gain some votes by extending the franchise, but the net gain of 48,000 votes is only about one-quarter of 1 percent of the more than 15 million people of voting age in Florida. Such evidence cannot support the stronger claim that Trump would have lost the state in 2016 but for criminal disenfranchisement.
Nitpick: it's closer to HALF of one percent of the actual 2016 voter turnout (9.1M).
  #153  
Old 06-20-2019, 12:16 PM
SlackerInc is offline
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Al Gore certainly would take that in a heartbeat. There have been a number of other really close races in the state as well, which always seem to go the GOP's way.
  #154  
Old 06-20-2019, 05:37 PM
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Originally Posted by SlackerInc View Post
If the 2020 Democratic nominee campaigns in Wyoming or Oklahoma (or, for that matter, in New York or California), I will be livid.
The nominee will have to go to New York and California, because that's where the money is. One of the many mistakes Hillary's campaign made was spending too much time there.
  #155  
Old 06-21-2019, 02:32 AM
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I didn't say "fundraises", I said "campaigns".

Last edited by SlackerInc; 06-21-2019 at 02:33 AM.
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