View Poll Results: Will Trump win in 2020?
Yes 132 48.89%
No 138 51.11%
Voters: 270. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 06-18-2019, 08:50 PM
Mean Mr. Mustard's Avatar
Mean Mr. Mustard is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 11,357

Do you think Trump will win in 2020?


For a fun walk down memory lane, refer to this poll from July 2016 in which 82% of responders predicted Clinton winning the election.

A few comments from that thread:
  • Hillary in a landslide.
  • It is going to be Clinton. It was always going to be Clinton.
  • Clinton, by more than predicted.
  • There simply aren't enough uneducated angry white male sexist racists out there to win for Trump.
  • I can't see how (Clinton) can avoid being elected right now.

(I know it's easy to cherry-pick with hindsight, just presenting these comments to illustrate how perfectly wrong we can be with great confidence)


mmm
  #2  
Old 06-18-2019, 08:58 PM
Kolak of Twilo's Avatar
Kolak of Twilo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Edgewater/Chicago
Posts: 3,913
The vote in the electoral college will be similar to what it was in 2016, the Democrats may pick up Wisconsin and/or Michigan but probably not Pennsylvania, thus ensuring reelection for DJT. Depending on how poorly the Democrats do they could possibly lose Minnesota, New Hampshire and the three states mentioned above making it actually a bigger win for Trump.
  #3  
Old 06-18-2019, 09:17 PM
Euphonious Polemic is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 11,659
I voted "yes", because I have completely given up on the American public. I think that there are way, way too many idiots out there. And Trump's minions will probably engineer a war or something
  #4  
Old 06-18-2019, 09:34 PM
Kent Clark's Avatar
Kent Clark is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Posts: 26,342
I don't seem to have voted in the 2016 poll. That may be because my wife had returned from visiting her mostly blue-collar relatives just before the poll was put up, and said, "You know, I think Trump can win this thing."

Since the only choices are yes or no, I'll just say, you know, I think Trump can win this thing again.
  #5  
Old 06-18-2019, 09:41 PM
Defensive Indifference is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 7,104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic View Post
I voted "yes", because I have completely given up on the American public. I think that there are way, way too many idiots out there. And Trump's minions will probably engineer a war or something
Pretty much this. And the Democrats will figure out a way to completely fuck it up. Also the Russians will put their finger on the scale for Trump again.
  #6  
Old 06-18-2019, 09:48 PM
Barack Obama is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 428
The only way he will win is if the Democrats don't elected Bernie to run against him.
  #7  
Old 06-18-2019, 09:52 PM
Ethilrist is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Saint Paul
Posts: 26,896
The people who were dumb enough to vote for him in the first place haven't gotten any smarter, and the Democrats haven't learned, as a party, how they screwed things up.
  #8  
Old 06-18-2019, 09:53 PM
Kolak of Twilo's Avatar
Kolak of Twilo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Edgewater/Chicago
Posts: 3,913
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barack Obama View Post
The only way he will win is if the Democrats don't elected Bernie to run against him.
And I would say nominating Bernie would give the election to Trump in a walk.
  #9  
Old 06-18-2019, 09:57 PM
nearwildheaven is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 12,828
I voted no, but only because I'm an optimist.
  #10  
Old 06-18-2019, 11:29 PM
Grrr!'s Avatar
Grrr! is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 16,326
I had a few weeks of optimism (that was nice). But that's gone now.

Trump wins.

Frankly, I'm getting to the point to where I just don't care anymore.

Republicans are assholes. And Dems are fucking stupid.

Just try not to blow up the world before I die... Okay?
  #11  
Old 06-18-2019, 11:31 PM
nearwildheaven is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 12,828
If Trump does win in 2020, it's highly unlikely that he will survive a second term IMHO.
  #12  
Old 06-18-2019, 11:57 PM
Steophan is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Nottingham
Posts: 8,971
If the Democrats put up a young, energetic, exciting candidate - like Bill Clinton or Obama were - then they will win. So, in the real world, Trump will win again.
  #13  
Old 06-19-2019, 02:34 AM
sweepkick is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posts: 485
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grrr! View Post

Republicans are assholes. And Dems are fucking stupid.
*evil assholes.

But yeah, my thoughts exactly.
  #14  
Old 06-19-2019, 03:14 AM
septimus's Avatar
septimus is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: The Land of Smiles
Posts: 19,396
I didn't vote. Right now my line is what Las Vegas calls "10-11 and you pick." Much bigger than the issue of Democratic stupidity are (1) Will the economy be strong 15 months from now? and (2) How well will Bolton and Putin coordinate the timing of their war-mongering efforts to keep their orange puppet in power?

I'm not sure this thread will help Democratic strategists much. Here they learn that the two worst things they can do are to nominate Bernie Sanders, and NOT to nominate him.
  #15  
Old 06-19-2019, 03:20 AM
Locrian is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Valley Village, CA
Posts: 4,269
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kolak of Twilo View Post
And I would say nominating Bernie would give the election to Trump in a walk.
Fully agreed.
  #16  
Old 06-19-2019, 04:08 AM
Paul in Qatar is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Dammam, Saudi Arabia
Posts: 12,861
Sixteen to eleven that the President will be reelected. That is quite frightening.
__________________
800-237-5055
Shrine Hospitals for Children (North America)
Never any fee
Do you know a child in need?
  #17  
Old 06-19-2019, 04:24 AM
Jack Batty's Avatar
Jack Batty is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: The Astral Plane.
Posts: 15,413
I voted no, because the alternative gives me hives.
  #18  
Old 06-19-2019, 05:04 AM
Budget Player Cadet's Avatar
Budget Player Cadet is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 9,457
Other relevant questions: "do I think there will be an election in 2020", "do I think the vote count will matter in 2020", "do we all understand that voting and elections boil down to 'laws' and do we all understand how the Trump administration has treated election law to date", et cetera.

It's too early to call any of those questions. I realize this may sound hysterical, but we're talking about a president who continues to baselessly contest an election he won. A president who probably would be in jail if he wasn't the president. A president who keeps making "jokes" about extending his term, or staying in office for 10-14 years. Nancy Pelosi is worried too, and she's not really much for radicalism or fearmongering last I checked.

If it comes to a quote-unquote "normal" election... I have zero faith in the American people. Absolutely none. Regardless of who the democrats run, they will have to contend with a vicious propaganda campaign spearheaded by the largest cable news channel in the country and supported by every country that prefers a weakened, marginalized USA, most notably Russia. They will have to deal with the reality that, these days, right wing campaigns do not play fair - they just break the law and accept the consequences long after it's too late for it to matter to the far more important outcome of the vote (who cares about a few million dollars in fines three years after the fact if you got what you wanted?). They will need to push back against all of this and still manage a decisive victory in an electoral map that means that republicans can still win the election despite losing the popular vote by millions. And they will have to deal with a corrupt government that has shown a willingness to lie, ignore the law, and break the law to defend Trump, and a "liberal" media establishment that's all too eager to frame that law-breaking in ways that benefit the Trump administration. And if they do run someone willing to push for real social reform, they may have to deal with billionaires launching third-party campaigns explicitly to sabotage them (Howard Schultz comes to mind).

Put simply, I have little to no faith that the democratic party can win this. They're not vicious enough, they're not organized enough, and they have consistently underestimated the threat Trump poses to our system of governance.

Last edited by Budget Player Cadet; 06-19-2019 at 05:07 AM.
  #19  
Old 06-19-2019, 05:31 AM
Budget Player Cadet's Avatar
Budget Player Cadet is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 9,457
I mean, just look at Trump's rhetoric from the launch of his 2020 reelection campaign.

Quote:
“They would shut down your free speech and use the power of the law to punish their opponents,” he asserted. “They would strip Americans of their constitutional rights while flooding the country with illegal immigrants.”
Quote:
“Our radical Democrat opponents are driven by hatred, prejudice, and rage and want to destroy you, and they want to destroy our country as we know it,” Trump said.
(Taken from Vox.)

Meanwhile, here's the democratic response, and what's wrong with it:

Quote:
This is something I’ve heard House Democrats complain about endlessly since they’ve taken the majority: Let’s talk about all of the great bills we’ve passed, that the Senate isn’t touching, instead of these distractions. House Republicans said the same thing when they had the majority. The implication is always that there’s some glitch in the system—media inanity, mostly—preventing voters from appreciating the important work legislators are doing on kitchen-table issues, or that the electorate is simply not receiving the relevant information.

But maybe they are receiving it loudly and clearly: House Democrats are passing, essentially along party lines, all sorts of legislation that they designed and wrote to be passed essentially along party lines. These bills have no chance of going anywhere because Republicans, who control the Senate and the White House, have no interest in them. Voters will care about them when there’s a government configuration—specifically, unified Democratic control of the House, Senate, and White House—that might enact them into law. But for now, the important work of the House is that which it can control regardless of Mitch McConnell’s cooperation: investigating the president, who is long past due for it.


When voters elected a Democratic House for the first time in eight years last November, they weren’t expecting any grand legislative breakthroughs between the two parties. A week after the 2018 midterms, Pew conducted a survey showing that while the “public is generally positive about the outcome of last week’s midterm elections … most Americans think that neither Democratic congressional leaders nor Donald Trump will be successful in getting their policies passed into law during the next two years.” Sixty-one percent of voters, including 49 percent of Democratic voters, believed that Democrats would be unsuccessful in getting their programs enacted over the next two years. Asked whether “partisan relations” would get better, worse, or stay the same, just 9 percent said they would get better, while 44 percent said they would worsen and 46 percent said they’d stay the same (i.e., bad).
  #20  
Old 06-19-2019, 06:26 AM
asahi's Avatar
asahi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 10,574
I learned my lesson about writing Trump off.

If the economic conditions are strong, he has probably a slightly better than 50% chance of winning outright. He'll struggle to win simply because he's a polarizing figure, but that polarization is also what could make it challenging to defeat him because his supporters are motivated to support him - his supporters know what they're getting, and they like what they see.

Regardless of the economy, Trump's problem is that he's increasingly alienating the independent voters. He cannot win the electoral college if he doesn't have their support. The math just isn't there. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if they've already written off winning the popular vote and instead are focusing on squeaking out an EC victory, and perhaps doing so by contesting the legitimacy of the results in some states with the aim of blocking a clear EC majority and sending it to the House, where he would probably win.

Now if the economy sours or if there's something else like a botched disaster response or an unpopular war, then Trump is toast and Republicans will be trying to save themselves. And he might even face impeachment before then.
  #21  
Old 06-19-2019, 06:36 AM
asahi's Avatar
asahi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 10,574
Quote:
Originally Posted by Budget Player Cadet View Post
I mean, just look at Trump's rhetoric from the launch of his 2020 reelection campaign.
He's already starting to whip up his supporters into a frenzy. If losing looks more and more inevitable, this is what we will see: "Democrats are coming for your guns. They're coming to take your farm and clean your bank accounts so that they can give your hard-earned money away to immigrants. This is your last chance to save your country from urban-dwelling minorities."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Budget Player Cadet View Post
Meanwhile, here's the democratic response, and what's wrong with it:
Don't know about everyone else, but I voted for Democrats to stop Republican madness - that was enough for me. Gridlock is unfortunately a feature of our political system, and voters have a responsibility to learn more about how their system works instead of just complaining about it. Voters should stop feeling deflated and disappointed about gridlock and continue punishing Republicans who support the politics of oligarchy.
  #22  
Old 06-19-2019, 06:59 AM
iiandyiiii's Avatar
iiandyiiii is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 34,948
I didn't vote, because any vote would be a wild guess. Until Nate Silver says something is likelier than not, backed by polling data, then it's just a guess.
  #23  
Old 06-19-2019, 07:03 AM
Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 9,406
sadly don't see anyone on the Dem side right now beating him. Mayor Pete would have a very good shot but too many people won't vote for a gay person.
  #24  
Old 06-19-2019, 07:11 AM
Crotalus's Avatar
Crotalus is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Chillicothe, Ohio
Posts: 6,054
Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
I learned my lesson about writing Trump off.
It appears that you learned that lesson early. You were among the 17% who picked Trump to win in the poll Mustard linked to in the OP.
__________________
Ad hominem is a logical fallacy when it's used to argue against a concept. But it's perfectly appropriate when your point is that someone is an asshole. TonySinclair
  #25  
Old 06-19-2019, 07:22 AM
Budget Player Cadet's Avatar
Budget Player Cadet is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 9,457
Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
Don't know about everyone else, but I voted for Democrats to stop Republican madness - that was enough for me.
Right, that's the point - they're trying to focus on an agenda that voters don't care about (because it's basically a fantasy to pass any bill through both houses of congress at this point) instead of what voters want, which is an end to the madness and investigations into the Trump administration. At least, according to Slate.
  #26  
Old 06-19-2019, 07:28 AM
Leaffan's Avatar
Leaffan is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Ottawa
Posts: 24,508
I voted yes. Also I was quite surprised to see that I voted for Trump in that last, linked poll.

I mean, I sure didn't want him to win, but I guess I thought it was probable.
  #27  
Old 06-19-2019, 07:29 AM
Red Wiggler is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 1,894
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kolak of Twilo View Post
The vote in the electoral college will be similar to what it was in 2016, the Democrats may pick up Wisconsin and/or Michigan but probably not Pennsylvania, thus ensuring reelection for DJT. Depending on how poorly the Democrats do they could possibly lose Minnesota, New Hampshire and the three states mentioned above making it actually a bigger win for Trump.
I think Wisconsin is the weak spot for the Dems, not Pennsylvania this time around. The suburbs have turned against the Republicans and Allegany and the Philly counties are going to carry the state for the blues.

But Trump is still the slight favorite. He's the incumbent, we have a strong economy and too many Americans are ok with his stupidity, hatefulness and bigotry.
  #28  
Old 06-19-2019, 08:38 AM
Kent Clark's Avatar
Kent Clark is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Posts: 26,342
Quote:
Originally Posted by nearwildheaven View Post
If Trump does win in 2020, it's highly unlikely that he will survive a second term IMHO.
Yeah, we all said that in 2016, too. Remember? His out-of-shape heart would explode; he'd get bored, turn everything over to Pence and quit; he'd get caught red-headed doing something reprehensible, like cheating with a hot stripper/porn actress right after his hot wife gave birth to his baby; the religious right would tire of him as soon as he got the 5th conservative on the Supreme Court; the Republican business establishment would tire of him; he'd be impeached as soon as the House and Senate both flipped in 2018. Did I miss anything?
  #29  
Old 06-19-2019, 09:26 AM
BobLibDem is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Home 07 NCAA HockeyChamps
Posts: 21,414
No. My reasoning:
1- He isn't running against Hillary
2- People are getting tired of his shtick.
3- Democrats are energized
4- He isn't running against Hillary
5- Women are terrified about him nominating more SC justices
6- Farmers have been getting screwed by his tariffs
7- He isn't running against Hillary
8- The middle class saw no benefits to his tax cuts
9- Decent people are offended by seeing refugee children in cages
10- He isn't running against Hillary
11- He has been exposed as the racist piece of shit that he is
12- Those mining and manufacturing jobs never came back
13- He isn't running against Hillary

He got in by virtue of running against the only person in the country who could lose to him in 2016. That simply won't happen in 2020. A lot of people who voted for him as a lark have learned something and will not make that same mistake in 2020.
  #30  
Old 06-19-2019, 09:33 AM
RTFirefly is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
Posts: 39,244
I threw my defective crystal ball in the trash years ago. I will venture no prediction.
  #31  
Old 06-19-2019, 09:34 AM
Chronos's Avatar
Chronos is online now
Charter Member
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: The Land of Cleves
Posts: 84,407
I think that the odds are against Trump. But then, the odds were against him in 2016, and he won that one. He can still win it again.

Even though "no" is the closest of the two positions in the poll to my position, I think that it vastly overstates my level of confidence, and so I abstain from the poll.
  #32  
Old 06-19-2019, 09:38 AM
Cat Whisperer's Avatar
Cat Whisperer is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Lethbridge, AB.
Posts: 49,117
My bold prediction - if Biden is elected as the Democratic candidate, Tr*mp will win. Of all the Democratic candidates, Joe Biden is The System personified.

If Joe Biden is not elected Democratic candidate, Tr*mp will win, because voters are scared of an unknown quantity.

You didn't give us a third option - I have a strong feeling there will be no vote. Tr*mp will manufacture a crisis to prevent it. He's closely following the Fascist playbook.
__________________
"Your guilty consciences may make you vote Democratic, but secretly you all yearn for a Republican president to lower taxes, brutalize criminals, and rule you like a king!"
- S. Bob

Last edited by Cat Whisperer; 06-19-2019 at 09:39 AM.
  #33  
Old 06-19-2019, 09:46 AM
Fiveyearlurker is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 6,586
In a fair fight, no. But, I have no illusions about that.
  #34  
Old 06-19-2019, 10:28 AM
enipla is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Colorado Rockies.
Posts: 14,415
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kolak of Twilo View Post
And I would say nominating Bernie would give the election to Trump in a walk.
Definitely. Though I would certainly vote for Bernie over Trump (I'd vote for a gold fish over trump[better hair]).
__________________
I don't live in the middle of nowhere, but I can see it from here.
  #35  
Old 06-19-2019, 10:30 AM
ThelmaLou's Avatar
ThelmaLou is online now
Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Neither here nor there
Posts: 16,205
Quote:
Originally Posted by enipla View Post
...(I'd vote for a gold fish over trump[better hair]).
And a longer attention span.
__________________
"If we're not supposed to dance, why all this music?" Gregory Orr
  #36  
Old 06-19-2019, 10:36 AM
Fretful Porpentine is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 1999
Location: Bohemia. A seacoast.
Posts: 6,443
I think he can win, but is not the favorite. I'd give him about a 40% chance, which is still too high for comfort as far as I'm concerned. On the one hand, he'll have the advantage of running as an incumbent, and probably one with no major wars or economic crises on his record; on the other hand, he barely won last time due to a slightly flukey set of circumstances, he hasn't done anything to expand his appeal beyond the people who already voted for him last time, and demographics are not really on his side.
__________________
Live merrily, and trust to good verses.
-- Robert Herrick
  #37  
Old 06-19-2019, 11:14 AM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 22,318
Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Wiggler View Post
I think Wisconsin is the weak spot for the Dems, not Pennsylvania this time around. The suburbs have turned against the Republicans and Allegany and the Philly counties are going to carry the state for the blues.

But Trump is still the slight favorite. He's the incumbent, we have a strong economy and too many Americans are ok with his stupidity, hatefulness and bigotry.
As covered elsewhere 2020 with the exact same demographic turnouts and shares as 2016 would be a Trump loss, flipping all of PA, MI, and WI. WI being the one that might stay if all third party votes “went home”, which would be an EV tie.

If the election was held today, with the economy doing great, against most of the likely D nominees, Trump would do worse than against Clinton. His popularity has not gone up since 2016. The economy is unlikely to get better.

So a 2020 D has to do worse than Clinton with one or more demographic to lose.

Some nominees could pull that off. But it is not probable. Sanders could lose it, for example.

Most won’t ignore and disrespect white non college-educated voters as much as Clinton did, or drive votes to Trump with the less informed fearful of socialism. Few will get less turnout from young white progressives than Clinton did. Many would do as well or better with Black voters and Hispanic voters as she did.

Any chance of Trump winning is too big but he is not the favorite.
  #38  
Old 06-19-2019, 11:37 AM
Tamerlane is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: SF Bay Area, California
Posts: 13,747
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
I think that the odds are against Trump. But then, the odds were against him in 2016, and he won that one. He can still win it again.
Pretty much where I come down. I voted "no" because I honestly don't think it is likely given his strong negatives. But he's an incumbent, the economy is still chugging along on the surface and he has a highly motivated base. I won't be shocked if he wins again. Horribly disappointed, but not shocked.
  #39  
Old 06-19-2019, 11:37 AM
ThelmaLou's Avatar
ThelmaLou is online now
Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Neither here nor there
Posts: 16,205
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
As covered elsewhere 2020 with the exact same demographic turnouts and shares as 2016 would be a Trump loss, flipping all of PA, MI, and WI. WI being the one that might stay if all third party votes “went home”, which would be an EV tie.

If the election was held today, with the economy doing great, against most of the likely D nominees, Trump would do worse than against Clinton. His popularity has not gone up since 2016. The economy is unlikely to get better.

So a 2020 D has to do worse than Clinton with one or more demographic to lose.

Some nominees could pull that off. But it is not probable. Sanders could lose it, for example.

Most won’t ignore and disrespect white non college-educated voters as much as Clinton did, or drive votes to Trump with the less informed fearful of socialism. Few will get less turnout from young white progressives than Clinton did. Many would do as well or better with Black voters and Hispanic voters as she did.

Any chance of Trump winning is too big but he is not the favorite.
Not to flog a deceased equine, but let's remember that Clinton won the popular vote by 3 MILLION.

Has anyone ever calculated how big a popular vote margin Clinton could have won by and still lost the Electoral vote?
__________________
"If we're not supposed to dance, why all this music?" Gregory Orr
  #40  
Old 06-19-2019, 11:53 AM
octopus's Avatar
octopus is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 8,588
I thought it unlikely that he would win in 2016. I still get the feeling that his volatility makes it unlikely to win 2020. And the thing is, if he could keep his mouth shut and pass infrastructure bills he’d probably win a crushing victory in 2020. But that fool had no filter.

The one big lesson that Trump has taught other, smarter politicians is that exploiting emotional rhetoric is more powerful than originally thought.
  #41  
Old 06-19-2019, 12:08 PM
scr4 is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Alabama
Posts: 15,954
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
No. My reasoning:
1- He isn't running against Hillary
2- People are getting tired of his shtick.
3- Democrats are energized
5- Women are terrified about him nominating more SC justices
6- Farmers have been getting screwed by his tariffs
8- The middle class saw no benefits to his tax cuts
9- Decent people are offended by seeing refugee children in cages
11- He has been exposed as the racist piece of shit that he is
12- Those mining and manufacturing jobs never came back
(Duplicates removed from quote)

1. If they can vilify Hillary and make it stick, they can do that to anybody.
2. Those people never supported Trump in the first place. His approval rating hasn't changed more than a few percent.
3. Trump supporters are also energized.
5. 2018 Senate election showed that SC justices aren't very important to Democratic voters, but are important to Republican voters.
6. Most voters aren't farmers.
8. The middle class weren't hurt by tax cuts either. And many think the tax cuts helped improve the economy.
10. Decent people didn't vote for Trump to begin with.
11. He was exposed as a racist piece of shit long before the 2016 election.
12. Most people don't know that.

Last edited by scr4; 06-19-2019 at 12:11 PM.
  #42  
Old 06-19-2019, 12:11 PM
Unreconstructed Man is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 269
Until we know who he’s running against, it’s pointless to speculate about the result.
  #43  
Old 06-19-2019, 12:11 PM
Procrustus is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Pacific NW. ¥
Posts: 12,245
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tamerlane View Post
I won't be shocked if he wins again. Horribly disappointed, but not shocked.
Who would have thought that "horribly disappointed" could be a gross understatement?
  #44  
Old 06-19-2019, 12:14 PM
DrDeth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 41,498
No, Trump wont win, becuase:

1. No Comey letter. 538 put that as the #1 reason Hillary lost.

2. The Dems will remember 2016 and campaign harder in battleground states.

3. The Russian trolls won't have as much of a impact. Facebook, etc are wise to them, and to a lesser extent so is the American voter.

4. Tump lied to the rust belt to get their votes. Their factory jobs have not come back (and they can't). They are angry and disillusioned.

Biden has the best chance, but many others could do it also. I suspect Sanders and Buttigieg are the main two losers. Even tho i am no Harris fan, she could beat trump. Beto, Warren, a good shot. If Beto can bring in Texas, he's in.
  #45  
Old 06-19-2019, 12:18 PM
scr4 is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Alabama
Posts: 15,954
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
3. The Russian trolls won't have as much of a impact. Facebook, etc are wise to them, and to a lesser extent so is the American voter.
What makes you think that? Remember the fake Pelosi video a couple of weeks ago?
  #46  
Old 06-19-2019, 12:28 PM
DrDeth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 41,498
Quote:
Originally Posted by scr4 View Post
What makes you think that? Remember the fake Pelosi video a couple of weeks ago?
Yes, but that was very quickly discredited, so fast I never even saw the original.
  #47  
Old 06-19-2019, 12:47 PM
Akaj's Avatar
Akaj is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2018
Location: In the vanishing middle
Posts: 656
I voted no, based on this simple if speculative reasoning: no one who didn't like Trump in 2016 will be motivated to turn around and vote for him now, while many people* who were unmotivated to vote (or maybe willing to give him the benefit of the doubt against Hilary) in 2016 will now be motivated by what they've seen to vote against him.

*How many? It doesn't have to be millions. 70,000 in the right states would have done the trick in 2016, and the mid-terms make me confident that at least that many will come through in 2020.
__________________
I'm not expecting any surprises.
  #48  
Old 06-19-2019, 12:52 PM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 22,318
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThelmaLou View Post
Not to flog a deceased equine, but let's remember that Clinton won the popular vote by 3 MILLION.

Has anyone ever calculated how big a popular vote margin Clinton could have won by and still lost the Electoral vote?
It depends where the votes are.

Win by huge margins in CA and NY, lose by a hair in TX, FL, PA, MI, and WI, and the popular vote win with EC loss could be much much bigger. Theoretically.

You’ve got to win those last three states.
  #49  
Old 06-19-2019, 12:56 PM
ThelmaLou's Avatar
ThelmaLou is online now
Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Neither here nor there
Posts: 16,205
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThelmaLou View Post
Not to flog a deceased equine, but let's remember that Clinton won the popular vote by 3 MILLION.

Has anyone ever calculated how big a popular vote margin Clinton could have won by and still lost the Electoral vote?
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
It depends where the votes are.

Win by huge margins in CA and NY, lose by a hair in TX, FL, PA, MI, and WI, and the popular vote win with EC loss could be much much bigger. Theoretically.

You’ve got to win those last three states.
This is important. And disturbing.
__________________
"If we're not supposed to dance, why all this music?" Gregory Orr
  #50  
Old 06-19-2019, 12:58 PM
DrDeth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 41,498
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
It depends where the votes are.

Win by huge margins in CA and NY, lose by a hair in TX, FL, PA, MI, and WI, and the popular vote win with EC loss could be much much bigger. Theoretically.

You’ve got to win those last three states.
No, if the Dems win Fla, the numbers change.
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:36 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2018 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017