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Old 07-08-2019, 10:29 AM
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What do Republicans have to do to win Democratic votes?


A few threads ago, a poster complained that Democrats often talk about what they need to do to win over (certain types of) Trump voters or Republicans - such as voters in the Rust Belt, farmers in Iowa, "flyover country" voters, middle-class or impoverished white voters, etc. - but that the onus is very rarely on Republicans to do the same to win over blue voters (with perhaps the exception of a brief time after 2012 in which some GOP-ers talked about immigration reform to help win the Hispanic vote).


So it is fair enough to ask what the Republicans ought to be doing to win over blue or light-blue voters. But, IMHO, this task is far harder. Blue voters are such a far distance away from the Republican Party that there is essentially nothing the GOP can do to win them over (a black woman in inner-city Philadelphia, for instance, has virtually no reason to vote Republican.) The only way the Republican Party could win over blue voters is by moving so far to the left that they wouldn't be the Republican Party anymore; they'd just be a more conservative Democratic Party. (The exception might be the Hispanic vote; Latinos have historically been a rather religious and socially conservative bloc, although that may be changing as well.) The GOP has had some success in winning some of the Asian vote by using affirmative action as a wedge issue, but mainly among recently-immigrated-and-naturalized Chinese-Americans.


What else?
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Old 07-08-2019, 11:00 AM
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The easiest thing is to quit with the anti-science nonsense. I know some educated people who just can’t vote Republican because of the stupidity they allow as far as science goes.

I also believe the Democrats should never give a platform to the far left woo types who dance around with the anti vaccine nut jobs.
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Old 07-08-2019, 11:57 AM
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Just as a start, eject and actively campaign against the open bigots, misogynists, and abusers of women within their party. That means not only does Steve King get booted off committees, but he gets no funding, no support/endorsements, and his opponents are actively supported/endorsed by national and state Republican officials. King, of course, would only be the beginning -- there are many more, with Trump at the top.

Without this just as a start, I couldn't even consider voting Republican as the party is right now, and neither could most of my progressive/Democratic friends and family.

There's no chance of this happening any time soon, of course.

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Old 07-08-2019, 12:06 PM
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
Just as a start, eject and actively campaign against the open bigots, misogynists, and abusers of women within their party. That means not only does Steve King get booted off committees, but he gets no funding, no support/endorsements, and his opponents are actively supported/endorsed by national and state Republican officials. King, of course, would only be the beginning -- there are many more, with Trump at the top.

Without this just as a start, I couldn't even consider voting Republican as the party is right now, and neither could most of my progressive/Democratic friends and family.

There's no chance of this happening any time soon, of course.
OK, but even if the GOP kicked out every single misogynist, racist, bigot, etc., why would you vote for them when they are the opposite of your views on abortion, climate change, LGBT, and a dozen other such issues? That's what I am asking about - not just what is wrong with the GOP per se, but rather, what they would have to do to make blue voters pick them over the D's.

Last edited by Velocity; 07-08-2019 at 12:11 PM.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:09 PM
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They will win Democratic votes by convincing moderate Democrats that the leading Democratic candidates are extremists who would ruin this country (or this economy), while Republicans are the safe, centrist choice who would maintain the status quo.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:09 PM
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Equality is a big issue. Republicans need to stop acting like white people are more important than black people, men are more important than women, Christians are more important than non-Christians, straights are more important than gays, rural people are more important than people in cities, and people whose ancestors came from Europe are more important than people whose ancestors came from somewhere else if they want to win the votes of people who are straight white rural Christian men.

Republicans should also stop putting the interests of rich people ahead of the interests of middle class and poor people.

Before some conservative comes in to complain, I'm not saying they need to put the interests of these other people ahead of the people in the Republican base. I'm just saying they should offer them equality.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:18 PM
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They could start by being in the same freakin' reality as the rest of us.

They could acknowledge the reality of climate change, that it's happening way faster than the climate scientists predicted even a decade or so ago, and that it's going to take major governmental investments and changes to the laws to do something about it in time.

They could have acknowledged that even if Iran continued to be a disruptive influence in the Middle East, keeping Iran nuke-free was a Big Fucking Deal, and therefore the JCPOA was an achievement they should have praised to the skies, instead of opposing and demonizing it.

Remember all that money for high-speed rail in the 2009 stimulus deal? Remember all those GOP governors refusing that money because trains are like communism or something? In Europe and Japan and China, they have intercity trains that routinely go 200+ mph, and we have a crappy rail system left over from the pre-WWII era.

At that same time, NJ Gov. Christie turned down the money for a new tunnel between NJ and NYC. The old tunnels are starting to have some serious issues. But Obama's money had to be refused, just because.

And of course, there are still a number of GOP-controlled states that continue to turn down the Medicaid expansion money, including big states like Texas, Florida, and Georgia, hurting their own citizens to own the libs.

That's just a few examples out of many of a party that refuses to do what's in its constituents' best interests for purely tribal reasons. How does a Republican even get to where sane people are from where they are?
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:22 PM
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Convince the centrists that the far left mean what they say. The average well to do, socially liberal voter probably doesn’t want wealth confiscation and retirement fund seizing to pay for those who choose destructive lifestyles. Unfortunately, the specter of socialism is not currently real enough to overcome many people’s disdain of the evangelical right.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:27 PM
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OK, but even if the GOP kicked out every single misogynist, racist, bigot, etc., why would you vote for them when they are the opposite of your views on abortion, climate change, LGBT, and a dozen other such issues? That's what I am asking about - not just what is wrong with the GOP per se, but rather, what they would have to do to make blue voters pick them over the D's.
This is the minimum for me to consider the party as possibly a "political party that is trying to institute their vision for the best future of America and Americans" rather than a "political party of powerful and wealthy bigots, misogynists, and abusers of women whose primary mission is enabling and protecting the wealth and power of bigots, misogynists, and abusers of women". For the latter, the issues don't matter -- there's no possibility of even considering a vote for such a party. I'd consider voting for the former, and seriously analyze the pros and cons of their position on the issues. Even further -- a legitimately honest and decent Republican candidate might actually be able to convince me that I'm wrong on, say, the corporate income tax rate (a topic on which I don't have particularly strong views). There's no possibility that a bigot, misogynist, abuser of women, or an enabler/supporter of such could do so. Moral authority is a real thing that matters, at least to some of us.

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Old 07-08-2019, 12:32 PM
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Convince the centrists that the far left mean what they say. The average well to do, socially liberal voter probably doesn’t want wealth confiscation and retirement fund seizing to pay for those who choose destructive lifestyles. Unfortunately, the specter of socialism is not currently real enough to overcome many people’s disdain of the evangelical right.
I'm a socially liberal voter who doesn't want "wealth confiscation and retirement fund seizing." I like my wealth and my retirement fund. You really think my money is safer with Republicans in charge? I'd like a cite for that.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:41 PM
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OK, but even if the GOP kicked out every single misogynist, racist, bigot, etc., why would you vote for them when they are the opposite of your views on abortion, climate change, LGBT, and a dozen other such issues? That's what I am asking about - not just what is wrong with the GOP per se, but rather, what they would have to do to make blue voters pick them over the D's.
I think the Republicans have the ability to put forth a positive agenda rather than a mostly negative one. The Republicans were traditionally seen as the party of fiscal responsibility. Unfortunately, they've weakened that legacy by adopting a platform of tax cuts without spending cuts, which leads to massive deficits. But they could go back and adopt the principle of balancing the budget and reducing the deficit.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:46 PM
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There is a mirror image here. The D s don’t need to win the non-college educated vote, just lose it less badly. Likewise on the R side.

Be less racist and xenophobic and the margins with minority voters shrink significantly. There are plenty of minorities who on many issues align more GOP if not for that.

Less anti-intellectualism and more acceptance of climate science and some college educated whites could return.

I suspect after Trump you will see some this repositioning occur. A move to the middle as the D side defines itself farther Left and has its own internecine warfare.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:47 PM
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They have no intention of ever balancing the budget. Deadeye Dick Cheney said deficits don't matter. They truly believe that to be the case, except when a Democrat is in the White House in which case it is a crisis. If all the racists and misogynists and crooks left the Republican Party, there'd be nobody left to turn off the lights. They will never get a vote from me as long as I live.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:50 PM
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Convince the centrists that the far left mean what they say.
In other words, same old same old; scare people into voting for the Republicans by claiming the Democrats want to let the Commies attack America/let negroes marry your daughters/let homosexuals marry your sons/let terrorists kill you/let jack-booted thugs take your guns/let Mexicans take your jobs/let environmentalists take your cars/let atheists ban Christmas/let socialists take your property (pick whatever is appropriate for the current decade).

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Old 07-08-2019, 12:58 PM
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Maybe stop implying that poor people are poor because of their "destructive tendencies." Maybe enact election reform that seeks to empower voters everywhere, not just in the rural breadbasket. Maybe stop treating science as a cultural enemy.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:58 PM
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This is the minimum for me to consider the party as possibly a "political party that is trying to institute their vision for the best future of America and Americans" rather than a "political party of powerful and wealthy bigots, misogynists, and abusers of women whose primary mission is enabling and protecting the wealth and power of bigots, misogynists, and abusers of women". For the latter, the issues don't matter -- there's no possibility of even considering a vote for such a party. I'd consider voting for the former, and seriously analyze the pros and cons of their position on the issues. Even further -- a legitimately honest and decent Republican candidate might actually be able to convince me that I'm wrong on, say, the corporate income tax rate (a topic on which I don't have particularly strong views). There's no possibility that a bigot, misogynist, abuser of women, or an enabler/supporter of such could do so. Moral authority is a real thing that matters, at least to some of us.
Then you're saying, "The Republicans need to do such-and-such to become a party that I can respect, but still not a party I can vote for." That's not what this thread is about.


Also this isn't a thread about you per se, but rather, about blue voters in America as a whole. About 100 million voters, rather than just 1. (not insulting or attacking, just trying to steer the thread back on track; this is not an IMHO poll)
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Old 07-08-2019, 01:00 PM
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a) Convince me that the left has no solution to economic inequality except to let the market economy run and then when it's done, grab all the salaries and resources and redistribute them, creating a mighty and powerful governing class in the process.

b) Convince me that they are willing to look at other solutions that operate on a voluntary basis, if necessary in the tradition of voluntary service work, but within which framework they will directly fund experiments and projects at local levels to see how best to facilitate people helping each other and pooling their resources to eliminate deprivation and offset the unfair outcomes of the market economy (concerning which they need to acknowledge that the socialist critique is accurate and spot-on even if the socialists do not have any viable solution to it).

c) Finally make good on their rhetoric of individuality and individual freedom. Go all-out liberatarian about the right of citizens to do absolutely any goddam thing they want to that doesn't demonstrably hurt others directly, destroy public resources or private property, or disrupt the community beyond the point that it can function. No more nanny state. That means no drug laws, sex laws, or other intrusions into personal choices.

d) Reclaim the Teddy Roosevelt mantle of protectors and guardians of our natural resources, so that our children and their children will have places to hunt and fish and hike and so forth.

e) Promise to Make America First by sponsoring covert operations in foreign countries aimed at increasing the personal freedoms and political authority of people in those nations, on the grounds that the greatest external threat to the American nation lies with despotic dictatorships.

f) In a similar vein, ensconce the American political way on the face of the earth by moving to shift the political structure of the United Nations to a bicameral legislature with representatives elected by popular vote in one house and representatives elected by member nations in the other. Disband the security council and make plans for bringing the entire planet under the leadership of the US as the de facto model and focus of the UN.

Items E and F should go a long ways towards addressing the immigration problem by giving the denizens of the earth fewer reasons to want to relocate to the US insofar as they'll be doing OK where they are in their own lands.
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Old 07-08-2019, 01:09 PM
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Then you're saying, "The Republicans need to do such-and-such to become a party that I can respect, but still not a party I can vote for." That's not what this thread is about.
Not really -- I could concievably vote for a relatively honest and decent Republican (in this hypothical new version of the party) over a dishonest and indecent Democrat. But in the present, I don't believe there are any honest and decent Republicans, at least in national office (Pres, VP, or Senate). There might be one or two decent Republican governors or representatives. Even these would be unacceptable unless they're actively fighting against the Trumpists (thus Amash might be the only one that qualifies in the present).

Quote:
Also this isn't a thread about you per se, but rather, about blue voters in America as a whole. About 100 million voters, rather than just 1. (not insulting or attacking, just trying to steer the thread back on track; this is not an IMHO poll)
What I said would apply to most of the liberals and progressives I know and speak to about politics regularly.
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Old 07-08-2019, 01:12 PM
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Nothing. The GOP will never recover. The final death knell is tolling. The end began with Newt Gingrich and Mitch McConnell will be the last one out, pulling the plug behind him.
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Old 07-08-2019, 01:22 PM
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They will never get a vote from me as long as I live.
Again, if I may junior-mod a bit, I am not asking this thread as an IMHO question - i.e., what does the GOP have to do to get your vote, BobLibDem? - but rather, what does the GOP have to do to win some or many blue votes in the nation. They won't get your vote, but they could peel away Hispanic votes by changing their message and policies, they could win over immigrants who hold socially conservative views, they could win super-rich liberals who are afraid of their taxes getting steeply raised, etc.

Just trying to keep the thread on track.
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Old 07-08-2019, 01:25 PM
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Nothing. The GOP will never recover. The final death knell is tolling. The end began with Newt Gingrich and Mitch McConnell will be the last one out, pulling the plug behind him.
Newt Gingrich left office more than 20 years ago. Possibly taking longer than you expected?
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Old 07-08-2019, 02:25 PM
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I don't know if it's necessarily Democratic votes they'd win as opposed to persuadable independents, but really the GOP should embrace some sort of national health insurance plan. In other countries, the conservative/nationalist parties manage to support it somehow (at least as long as the Right Sorts get it), the Republicans could manage it if they tried.

Do you think Trump would have won if he'd run outright on a plan of destroying the ACA while putting nothing in its place? No, he won because he claimed he had a better plan that would cheaply provide coverage for everyone. He doesn't know what he's talking about and is a liar, but it proves a point.
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Old 07-08-2019, 02:30 PM
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I don't know if it's necessarily Democratic votes they'd win as opposed to persuadable independents, but really the GOP should embrace some sort of national health insurance plan. In other countries, the conservative/nationalist parties manage to support it somehow (at least as long as the Right Sorts get it), the Republicans could manage it if they tried.

Do you think Trump would have won if he'd run outright on a plan of destroying the ACA while putting nothing in its place? No, he won because he claimed he had a better plan that would cheaply provide coverage for everyone. He doesn't know what he's talking about and is a liar, but it proves a point.
I have been of the opinion that conservatives could get aboard with single-payer healthcare big time if someone managed to successfully convince them that it is efficient and saves money - rather than appealing to something like "compassion" or "think of the undocumented immigrants who need healthcare" which just drives them away from the idea. Point out that we could save many trillions of dollars in the long run. Also, make it a matter of national pride - how can we let Canada have a better system than us, etc.
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Old 07-08-2019, 02:35 PM
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They will never get a vote from me as long as I live.
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There might be one or two decent Republican governors or representatives. Even these would be unacceptable unless they're actively fighting against the Trumpists (thus Amash might be the only one that qualifies in the present).
I'd narrow it down to governors, since representatives caucus with gerrymanderers, deniers of various flavors, and anti-healthists. For me to reconsider my vote, not only does there need to be massive reform, new blood needs to come in that is not so tainted by association with the literally insane, and I might vote for them.
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Old 07-08-2019, 02:49 PM
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Convince the centrists that the far left mean what they say. The average well to do, socially liberal voter probably doesn’t want wealth confiscation and retirement fund seizing to pay for those who choose destructive lifestyles.
Um... this is pretty much the entire Fox news playbook laid out in convenient tweet-sized format.

What they really need to do is convince centrists that the "far left" is real and influential, and that they're trying to loot grandma's piggy bank rather than bilionaires and huge multinationals. But again, Fox News is doing a full-court press on this as well.

I guess it's a good sign that this is all you've got.
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Old 07-08-2019, 03:06 PM
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"They could stop being...." -- waste of time trying to imagine that this is even a possibility. They've invested heavily in white anxieties and cynicism, and there's no way they can turn back now without sowing confusion and disillusionment among their "base".

What they are most likely to attempt to do to win Democratic votes is to try to steal away white Democratic moderates or centrists. They'll try to do this with hyper-polarizing the electorate to the point where non-white outrage rises to an extreme level that white moderates feel threatened and/or rejected by the Democratic party. If nothing else, the aim is that they either don't vote or vote 3rd party while their base bigoted base remains intact.
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Old 07-08-2019, 03:09 PM
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Um... this is pretty much the entire Fox news playbook laid out in convenient tweet-sized format.

What they really need to do is convince centrists that the "far left" is real and influential, and that they're trying to loot grandma's piggy bank rather than bilionaires and huge multinationals. But again, Fox News is doing a full-court press on this as well.

I guess it's a good sign that this is all you've got.
They'll convince the centrists and moderates that the party has been taken over by Blacks, Latinos, Feminists, and Socialists, to the point where there is no more room for white moderate voters.
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Old 07-08-2019, 03:44 PM
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Again, if I may junior-mod a bit, I am not asking this thread as an IMHO question - i.e., what does the GOP have to do to get your vote, BobLibDem? - but rather, what does the GOP have to do to win some or many blue votes in the nation. They won't get your vote, but they could peel away Hispanic votes by changing their message and policies, they could win over immigrants who hold socially conservative views, they could win super-rich liberals who are afraid of their taxes getting steeply raised, etc.

Just trying to keep the thread on track.
To get people to switch from voting for Democrats to voting for Republicans, Republicans need to stop doing the bad things that make people not vote for them and then start doing some good things that the Democrats aren't doing.
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Old 07-08-2019, 04:14 PM
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For starters, a lot less of this:
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Convince the centrists that the far left mean what they say. The average well to do, socially liberal voter probably doesn’t want wealth confiscation and retirement fund seizing to pay for those who choose destructive lifestyles. Unfortunately, the specter of socialism is not currently real enough to overcome many people’s disdain of the evangelical right.
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Old 07-08-2019, 05:22 PM
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Start by not nominating Trump.

After that, I think their best approach is go back to the good ol' "Main Street Republican." Pro-business, but suspicious of Big Business. Not really in favor of unions, but too polite to try to destroy them entirely. Thrifty with spending, they were more likely to want to root out bloated government budgets than gut social programs. They were mainline Christian, but not particularly anti-anybody when it came to race, religion, gender, gender identity or much else.

In the 1960s there were people like Gov. William Scranton and Senator Birch Bayh. Bayh even wrote Title IX of the Civil Rights Act and opposed two of Nixon's most whackadoodle Supreme Court nominees.

In the 1970s there were Gerald Ford and Bob Dole (that was the Dole who pushed the Americans with Disabilities Act and special education, not the old and cranky Dole.)

Throw in a dash of Jack Kemp's "we can revitalize the inner city" ideas and there's a Republican who could beat a Democrat in the bluest of blue areas.
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Old 07-08-2019, 05:34 PM
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why would you vote for them when they are the opposite of your views on abortion, climate change, LGBT, and a dozen other such issues? That's what I am asking about
I think they'd have to reverse their views/stance on a lot of that stuff.
Someone I know once asked me why I wasn't a republican. I have no idea why he thought I should be, but he tends to be an IRL troll/instigator so it was probably that.
In any case, I asked him if he thought two gay people should be allowed to get married, he said they should. I asked him if he thought someone should be able to sit in their bedroom and get high, he also said yes. I wondered to myself why he didn't see the gotcha coming. I asked him how he could vote republican when being against both of those things is something they're pretty vocal about.

For a party that wants a small unintrusive government, they sure spend a lot of time concerning themselves with what people are doing behind closed doors.

So, that would be my answer, the main thing the Rs would have to do to get my vote is not concern themselves with anything I do that isn't bothering other people. Let me get high in my house, let me marry/sleep with anyone I want to etc...

IOW, to answer the question "why would you vote for them when they are the opposite of your views on abortion, climate change, LGBT, and a dozen other such issues? ", well one of would have to change our views. Either the Rs can change their stance on those issues or they can try to convince me that if a guy wants to marry another guy, that's somehow a problem and I need to be against it.

And, to be honest, those types of things would have to change to get me to look in their direction and start putting a lot more thought into which way I vote. It certainly wouldn't guarantee anything.
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Old 07-08-2019, 06:21 PM
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A - stop the racism, sexism, homophobia, etc. When the party seemingly supports (or at least turns a blind eye to) that kind of behavior - to some light blue D's or true independents, the party looks like a group of "bad people." For some of them, it is hard to think of yourself as a good person and vote for someone who (for example) targets teenage girls.

B - offer workable solutions to things that they identify as problems. (other than tax cuts). Democratic and Democratic leaning voters say the three most important issues are healthcare, the way women are treated in society, and wealth/income inequality. I'm a medium information voter.

- From what I can tell, the Republican solution to healthcare is "not ACA," but they haven't actually proposed a better idea other than "more of the same" which isn't good.*
- Doing part A would go a long way toward alleviating some people's concerns about women's treatment in society.
- Again, the current Republican talking point seems to be that there isn't really a problem with income inequality and wealth distribution. That is a very hard sell to an urban voter who can see tents lining the freeway. The Democratic party seems, at least, to be trying to do something (even if it isn't succeeding or having some unintended consequences). The Republican solution is, I think, "tax cuts." Come up with something better.



*I know that that there are surveys that say people like their insurance. IRL, I've never met anyone who likes their insurance - and I hang out with people who have employer sponsored insurance. They definitely prefer that to "nothing!" which is very much worse. But they don't actually like what we have.
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Old 07-08-2019, 06:32 PM
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I heard that the Trump 2020 campaign strategy may not be try and win over Democrat voters, but rather to try to grow the base by attracting more people who didn't vote previously, and perhaps have never voted before - turnout in 2016 was 55.7%. So this would mean more of the same, probably amplified, rather than any pivot to the center.

The Republicans are currently an extremist party, and so it seems unlikely to me that they would be willing, or able, to normalize themselves in the relatively short timeframe needed to have an effect on the election. With Trump at the helm, I can only see things getting uglier, and more abnormal. Trump's opening 2020 campaign rally was as divisive as his rallies last time round, and showed him playing his old hits, with no new material (like Elvis '77, as Joe Scarborough put it).

I've heard speculation that Trump might try and move to the center some time next year, but one cannot legitimately claim to be both at the extreme and center, so if this were to transpire it would surely look ham-fisted and insincere, as I don't think he will do anything that could potentially upset his base of followers.
  #34  
Old 07-08-2019, 07:29 PM
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But, IMHO, this task is far harder. Blue voters are such a far distance away from the Republican Party that there is essentially nothing the GOP can do to win them over (a black woman in inner-city Philadelphia, for instance, has virtually no reason to vote Republican.)
It's not as hard as you might think. Trump did a pretty good job cutting heavily into the usual margins with midwest union households. He even won the union household vote in Ohio.

Portman outperformed Trump in Ohio in his 2016 Senate race. He wasn't very Trump- like and mostly ran his own race. He got the endorsement of the statewide Teamsters organization. They mostly liked his below the radar and relatively wonky work that helped protect the viability of their pension systems. We could probably dig through a host of Governors in the last decade that won over Democratic voters in purplish states on their way to victory. Kasich in Ohio is an easy pick but I don't know what worked for him. Hogan winning soldily blue Maryland two years before Trump got trounced there would be another good indicator.

Nationwide the union vote as shrunk quite a bit. It's skewed towards more white collar government workers. In the midwest it's still 20-25% of the electorate with much bigger representation from blue collar workers. They like unions and large corporations are their competitors. That makes them relatively friendly to part of the Democratic platform. They aren't particularly liberal, though. When Obama talked about people clinging to their God and their guns I was shocked that he'd insult so many lifelong Democrats in the midwest. I was also shocked that some many just thought rural republican in the south but not urban UAW worker in the midwest. He escaped that being a big issue. Clinton didn't escape the rest of the party leaving those important lifelong Democrats feeling ignored by the national party priorities.

The Democratic party has supposedly been working on shoring up the union vote since 2016. 2018 seemed to look like it might be working. Those votes aren't unwinnable for Republicans, though. I never thought I'd be saying that.
  #35  
Old 07-08-2019, 07:37 PM
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Convince the centrists that the far left mean what they say. The average well to do, socially liberal voter probably doesn’t want wealth confiscation and retirement fund seizing to pay for those who choose destructive lifestyles. Unfortunately, the specter of socialism is not currently real enough to overcome many people’s disdain of the evangelical right.
In this vein, I dont think Republicans need to do anything substantive or meaningful in order to pull in a certain segment of the (D)s. Specifically, DINOS, the Blue Dogs, the Joe Manchins of the country. All the republicans need to do is rachet up or just continue what they are already doing, namely using the Media to paint the Democratic Party to be the party of AOC, theparty of Rashida Tlaib, the party of Iihan Omar, the party of the dark skinned Socialists. I dont know if that number would be all that substantial but it definitely would be a non-zero number.
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Old 07-08-2019, 10:28 PM
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They could start by being in the same freakin' reality as the rest of us.
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I think the Republicans have the ability to put forth a positive agenda rather than a mostly negative one. The Republicans were traditionally seen as the party of fiscal responsibility. Unfortunately, they've weakened that legacy by adopting a platform of tax cuts without spending cuts, which leads to massive deficits. But they could go back and adopt the principle of balancing the budget and reducing the deficit.
I heard George Will interviewed a while ago and he said "conservatives believe in the lowest possible taxes, but the emphasis is on 'possible'." That sounds fine, I guess, but it's not a testable hypothesis. Somehow, lower taxes are always 'possible' no matter how high our deficits are. If Republicans care to face up to that reality, that their beloved tax cuts lead to their despised deficits, it would be a step in the right direction.
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  #37  
Old 07-08-2019, 10:36 PM
Joey P is online now
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Originally Posted by Walken After Midnight View Post
I heard that the Trump 2020 campaign strategy may not be try and win over Democrat voters, but rather to try to grow the base by attracting more people who didn't vote previously, and perhaps have never voted before - turnout in 2016 was 55.7%. So this would mean more of the same, probably amplified, rather than any pivot to the center.
<snip>
I've heard speculation that Trump might try and move to the center some time next year, but one cannot legitimately claim to be both at the extreme and center,...
I heard a snippet somewhere (and it was just speculation) that since we're on our way to an election year, he'll likely back off with the extreme stuff and then ramp it up if/when he's reelected and a lame duck.
That would make sense. I know some of my far right friends* that (obviously) support the GOP, had a hard time voting Trump. Some even went so far as to vote Independent so they'd be able to play the 'not my president' card if/when he was elected.
It was interesting when his wife (also R) made the comment that, realistically, this is a two party country and a third party isn't going to win. Going on to say no matter how much he dislikes Hillary, if he didn't want her to win, he needed to vote for Trump.
This was, of course, on the premise that a third party vote doesn't take a vote away from the other candidate, it hands them one.

Quote:
...so if this were to transpire it would surely look ham-fisted and insincere, as I don't think he will do anything that could potentially upset his base of followers.
While I'll agree that more and more of Trumps followers seem to have a harder time supporting him each time he does something bizarre or out of line. I assume they'll consider every promise he makes to be totally sincere. If for no other reason, (as many/most of us do) to justify voting for him.
Honestly, how many rabid Trump supporters would believe, and vote, for him if he promised to cut income tax by 90%.


*One of these friends is not just Republican, but Religious Reight. He considers anything the pope says to be the end all-be all of how to behave and what to believe in. It was, to me, rather entertaining to see him struggle with Pope Benedict supporting LGBT issues.
  #38  
Old 07-08-2019, 10:43 PM
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It'd be interesting to get some data on this, but my impression is that Obamacare has become very popular to a lot of purplish blue voters, and in particular a lot of the GOP plans to replace it are extremely unpopular among moderate Dems. Although it appears that at least GOP senators have basically given up on "repeal and replace" - I guess the next thing they could do to pick up left-leaning moderates would be to start to promise to preserve it entirely, or to preserve popular elements. They probably are going to continue the current plan of not talking about it because they've rallied the base with "repeal and replace" for years and don't want to reverse themselves.
  #39  
Old 07-08-2019, 10:47 PM
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I have been of the opinion that conservatives could get aboard with single-payer healthcare big time if someone managed to successfully convince them that it is efficient and saves money - rather than appealing to something like "compassion" or "think of the undocumented immigrants who need healthcare" which just drives them away from the idea. Point out that we could save many trillions of dollars in the long run. Also, make it a matter of national pride - how can we let Canada have a better system than us, etc.
I've had some success selling the idea of a public healthcare system by linking it to entrepreneurship. There's a lot of people who would like to own their own small business and have the money and the skills - but don't make the jump because they don't want to risk giving up their job-related health insurance. A responsible parent isn't going to take that kind of risk. So they put aside their dream of starting their own business and work a "safe" job where they have a health plan.

If everyone had a health plan that wasn't tied to their job, I think a lot of people would be willing to take on all of the other risks of starting their own businesses. We'd have a boom in new businesses and a major economic surge.
  #40  
Old 07-08-2019, 10:47 PM
Joey P is online now
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Originally Posted by Robot Arm View Post
I heard George Will interviewed a while ago and he said "conservatives believe in the lowest possible taxes, but the emphasis is on 'possible'." That sounds fine, I guess, but it's not a testable hypothesis. Somehow, lower taxes are always 'possible' no matter how high our deficits are. If Republicans care to face up to that reality, that their beloved tax cuts lead to their despised deficits, it would be a step in the right direction.
I don't know why this reminded me of it, but I've always wished that there was an entity that noted every promise a candidate made while on the trail (and publicaly clarified each and every one with them before the election). Then, at some point during their presidency, they could put out a report showing all the promises they made and which one's they've carried out.
I'm not entirely sure what it would accomplish other than maybe keeping them from being re-elected. But maybe it would get candidates to make promises that are actually doable.

As for lowering taxes in the face of increasing deficits, it reminds me of a teacher from college that pointed out that many things we blame the president for, tend to be due to the previous president (or further back) just due to how long things take to make their way through the government. So you blame one president for increasing debt, but ignore the previous one that lowered taxes. If we end up going to war in 2021, people will be quick to forget about all the wheels Trump set in motion.
IIRC, Trump spoke about the great economy we we're having when he was in office for just a few months. And this could be totally wrong, I thought he took credit for a decrease in unemployment for a quarter when Obama was still in office, but the report came out after he was inaugurated.
  #41  
Old 07-08-2019, 10:50 PM
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It'd be interesting to get some data on this, but my impression is that Obamacare has become very popular to a lot of purplish blue voters, and in particular a lot of the GOP plans to replace it are extremely unpopular among moderate Dems. Although it appears that at least GOP senators have basically given up on "repeal and replace" - I guess the next thing they could do to pick up left-leaning moderates would be to start to promise to preserve it entirely, or to preserve popular elements. They probably are going to continue the current plan of not talking about it because they've rallied the base with "repeal and replace" for years and don't want to reverse themselves.
I think they have a different plan. They're going to intentionally screw up Obamacare so it doesn't work. And when they've made sure it doesn't work, there won't be public support for it. As a bonus, they can then blame the Democrats for starting the program and attribute the mess the Republicans turned it into back to them.
  #42  
Old 07-08-2019, 10:53 PM
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I heard George Will interviewed a while ago and he said "conservatives believe in the lowest possible taxes, but the emphasis is on 'possible'." That sounds fine, I guess, but it's not a testable hypothesis. Somehow, lower taxes are always 'possible' no matter how high our deficits are. If Republicans care to face up to that reality, that their beloved tax cuts lead to their despised deficits, it would be a step in the right direction.
A lot of people forget that back in the sixties, it was the Democrats who were pushing for tax cuts and conservative Republicans (like Goldwater) who were calling it financially irresponsible.
  #43  
Old 07-08-2019, 11:00 PM
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If all the racists and misogynists and crooks left the Republican Party, there'd be nobody left to turn off the lights.
Yeah, this is the basic problem. At this point, the party platform IS racism, cruelty, misogyny, crime, and a willingness to lie unconditionally. Everybody who isn't for those things has either left the GOP or is so ill-informed about what the party is doing that their vote isn't available to be changed, anyway.
  #44  
Old 07-08-2019, 11:04 PM
Joey P is online now
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I've had some success selling the idea of a public healthcare system by linking it to entrepreneurship.
Out of curiosity, what income level people are you talking to. ISTM that someone making, say 50-100k would be the right demographic of people that would love to start their own business but know that insurance may be an issue, while the people that are making $1m+ aren't going to be all that worried about spending an extra couple hundred a month on premiums (per employee that takes it).

As much as I'd love UHC, it's one of the issues where I can understand why people are against it. At least why upper class people are against it. If they can comfortably afford health insurance and medical bills, they're going to get very little from subsidizing the cost for people that can't afford it. But look at someone that earns (pre-tax) $1000/mo, has a $400/mo apartment and has to pony up $200 per month for an insurance plan with a $5000 deductible, it makes more sense.
Of course, someone I know in nearly that exact position blew me off when ACA first showed up and I told him that I ran the numbers and it looks like he'd be eligible for a rebate to help make this more affordable. He wasn't going to take any money from Obama...of course that never stopped him from borrowing gas money from me (his employer). Hell, another employee even offered to set him up with the person that she works with for state-subsidized insurance. It's free (or very cheap) and last I checked was actually really good coverage. He'd rather struggle than take money from the government.
  #45  
Old 07-08-2019, 11:07 PM
Joey P is online now
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Yeah, this is the basic problem. At this point, the party platform IS racism, cruelty, misogyny, crime, and a willingness to lie unconditionally. Everybody who isn't for those things has either left the GOP or is so ill-informed about what the party is doing that their vote isn't available to be changed, anyway.
Agreed. During his campaign, look at how many people said things like 'Trump says what we're all thinking'. Well, maybe he said what you were thinking, but most people have learned that when you think that kind of stuff, it's wise to keep it to yourself and not act on it.
  #46  
Old 07-08-2019, 11:07 PM
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I think they have a different plan. They're going to intentionally screw up Obamacare so it doesn't work. And when they've made sure it doesn't work, there won't be public support for it. As a bonus, they can then blame the Democrats for starting the program and attribute the mess the Republicans turned it into back to them.
So I definitely don't think more than 5% of Republican politicians are going to get on the ACA bandwagon. I think it's something they could do to try to grab the moderates, despite the fact that for most of them it would hurt them in primaries and the general with everyone else who considers voting Republican. The GOP realized a while ago that you don't win most US elections by appealing to moderates - you appeal to your own base as well as disenfranchised voters and people who vote for personalities.

The Trump admin's tactic is definitely deliberate sabotage, but it is interesting that there's been some very slight pushback against that from congressional Republicans. It may be wishful thinking but I actually do think that enough Republicans have said they want to let Obamacare fail and try to blame democrats that they will have a tough time appealing to anyone outside their base on healthcare.

Last edited by str8cashhomie; 07-08-2019 at 11:08 PM.
  #47  
Old 07-09-2019, 02:37 AM
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I heard George Will interviewed a while ago and he said "conservatives believe in the lowest possible taxes, but the emphasis is on 'possible'." That sounds fine, I guess, but it's not a testable hypothesis.
It is. We can look at a number of factors to see if certain tax rates are associated with certain things. It isn't perfect, but, hey, political science is a lot harder than physics. We can still do it, so suck it up and look at the graphs.

And that's one of the things the GOP will have to do in order to become worthwhile: Admit that evidence has a role to play in politics. Dogma doesn't make it. Dogma leads you off a cliff, and "lower taxes" is a dogma. That goes for a lot of their other policies, from abstinence-only sexual education to supporting for-profit prisons to ramping up the war on drugs: They don't work and they only make things harder for people.

Which leads me into my next point: The GOP needs to start trying to help people. Policies which are harmful for no reason beyond short-term gain and/or sucking up to ideologues have got to go. Which policies hurt more than help? Well, evidence would show you that, if you're willing to look at it. Shouting everyone else down and lying about what they say won't.

Which leads me to yet another point: The GOP needs to stop lying. It needs to stop paying people to lie for it. It needs to distance itself from liars. It needs to realize that bad argumentation technique is, in fact, a form of lying. You can't come up with good ideas if all your mental effort is going into dreaming up lies about your opponents and coming up with ways to deflect honest criticism.

And again: The GOP needs to dump the hate groups. That kinda ties into the above point, in that you don't need to dance around accusations of being a Nazi if you're capable of denouncing Nazis at your rallies without half the room booing you, but it's just a really good point regardless.

My ideal GOP is a wonky policy party with good ideas for some reforms but a bias towards staying the course, except when staying the course would lead to disaster or harm people to no good end. Retake the Center Right Clinton was able to peel off and debate with the Democrats over who controls the Center. The Republicans used to be right here, in fact, before Nixon, before they absorbed the Dixiecrats, and before school integration scared the Evangelicals into voting GOP.
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  #48  
Old 07-09-2019, 07:41 AM
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For me, it wouldn't be enough for them to stop being racists and to start basing their policies on provable facts, they would also have to account for their past sins. The GOP would have to stage truth and reconciliation hearings where they described their attempts to suppress minority votes and disenfranchise Americans. They would have to open their archives up to the public, including internal emails and they would have to admit fault and ask for forgiveness.
  #49  
Old 07-09-2019, 07:44 AM
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The Republican Party is a criminal organization that is actively undermining the Republic. It's irredeemable at this point and doesn't deserve a vote from anyone, let alone a Democrat.

They don't need to soften their positions, they need to be forcibly disbanded and their leaders imprisoned in Gitmo.
  #50  
Old 07-09-2019, 08:05 AM
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There's nothing the GOP can do to attract voters like the SDMB, because -

Quote:
Originally Posted by madmonk28 View Post
For me, it wouldn't be enough for them to stop being racists and to start basing their policies on provable facts, they would also have to account for their past sins. The GOP would have to stage truth and reconciliation hearings where they described their attempts to suppress minority votes and disenfranchise Americans. They would have to open their archives up to the public, including internal emails and they would have to admit fault and ask for forgiveness.
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Originally Posted by Smapti View Post
The Republican Party is a criminal organization that is actively undermining the Republic. It's irredeemable at this point and doesn't deserve a vote from anyone, let alone a Democrat.

They don't need to soften their positions, they need to be forcibly disbanded and their leaders imprisoned in Gitmo.
If the GOP turned into progressive Democrats, the SDMB and voters like them would just vote for the progressive Democrats anyway.

The GOP could continue to support ideas with widespread support - voter ID, a ban on third-trimester abortions except if the fetus is dead or dying or will kill the mother, nuclear energy, GMOs, things like that. The difficulty is that the mainstream media will not cover it if they support those issues - they will put Democrats on air and assist them in changing the subject.

Same with the deficit, which should be a mainstream issue. That needs to be dealt with a combination of tax increases and spending cuts. The MSM will help the Dems call for tax increases, and then determinedly change the subject when the spending cuts turn into spending increases. See the Medicare Sustainability Act, and AOC's notion of cutting $720B from the military, M4A and its increase of the deficit. Etc.

Regards,
Shodan
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