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Old 07-18-2019, 11:37 AM
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How can the Democrats win the election?


If there is the slightest possibility of the Democrats winning the next election and getting rid of Trump, what steps would have to be taken? All responses are welcome...but I will keep in mind something my pappy once told me-"That guy sitting across from you at the table might be the friendliest person you ever set eyes on, but never forget that when he gives you some "friendly advice" he is at that table for the same reason you are."
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Old 07-18-2019, 11:53 AM
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Don’t rip yourselves apart in a civil war like 2016. The nominee might not pass a 100 question purity test and that’s ok.
No one has a perfect life, just like no one has the perfect spouse or perfect job or perfect house. We’re electing a president, not a God.

So glad Bernie, part II is a flop of a sequel so farm
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Old 07-18-2019, 11:55 AM
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Move to impeach Trump on war crimes in Yemen.
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Old 07-18-2019, 11:57 AM
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Move to impeach Trump on war crimes in Yemen.
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Old 07-18-2019, 11:59 AM
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Move to impeach Trump on war crimes in Yemen.
Huh?? Most Americans are going to think Yemen is a weird dish at their local Chinese takeout.
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Old 07-18-2019, 12:03 PM
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  • Try to reduce the visibility of AOC, Omar, Tlaib - 'the Squad' - as much as possible. They are deeply unpopular. Pelosi is more mainstream, let her be the leader.
  • Run on a platform of "return to the normal good old days of Obama" - with "respectability, normalcy and dignity" being emphasized over and over again.
  • Stop pushing the "privilege" issue. It is inherently divisive. There is no way you can say "X has privilege, Y does not" without it starting an X vs. Y resentment. The very nature of that sort of talk serves to divide and aggravate.
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Old 07-18-2019, 12:04 PM
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Huh?? Most Americans are going to think Yemen is a weird dish at their local Chinese takeout.
See the advice given in the OP.
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Old 07-18-2019, 12:06 PM
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Another one would be: Do not count your chickens before they are hatched. In November 2016, there were people going around with T-shirts reading: "Spoiler Alert: Clinton Wins." That was hardly a message that encouraged people to vote for Hillary.
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Old 07-18-2019, 12:14 PM
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  • Try to reduce the visibility of AOC, Omar, Tlaib - 'the Squad' - as much as possible. They are deeply unpopular. Pelosi is more mainstream, let her be the leader.
  • Run on a platform of "return to the normal good old days of Obama" - with "respectability, normalcy and dignity" being emphasized over and over again.
  • Stop pushing the "privilege" issue. It is inherently divisive. There is no way you can say "X has privilege, Y does not" without it starting an X vs. Y resentment. The very nature of that sort of talk serves to divide and aggravate.
* Here's Nate Silver on your link:
Quote:
natesilver: Journalistic malpractice on Axiosís part TBH to publish a poll without even listing who conducted the poll.

We donít even know who leaked it. We donít even know if the poll was real. We should be that skeptical when basic facts and details about a poll are missing like that.
*If everyone loved Obama so damn much, why did they turn around and elect pretty much his exact opposite to follow him?

*How do you suggest we deal with institutionalized racism and patriarchy if we don't talk about them? Or do we just say that white supremacy and sexism are going to be around forever because admitting they exist might cause us to lose a particular election? Does that seem like a good long term recipe for getting female and minority votes?
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Old 07-18-2019, 12:34 PM
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Nominate Joe Biden right now. Right. fucking. now. Screw the debates. Forget the DNC convention bullshit. Just throw all the support behind JB. Joe may not be the democrat we want, but he's the democrat we need right now. Sorry, Liz. Sorry, Pete. It was never going to be you, Kamala. Or you, Bernie. You'll all be getting a call for senior cabinet positions. Thanks for coming out and please don't forget to validate your parking stubs.
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Old 07-18-2019, 12:38 PM
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You are going to have to shut the progressives up.

Anyone who voted for Trump last time is going to vote for him again. The SDMB and the other yellow dog Democrats will vote for anyone with a D after their name. Therefore you have to get the moderates.

Progressive ideas like the Green New Deal and free health care for illegal immigrants and reparations and all the other things that the yellow dog Dems love are unpopular with moderates. Y'all can tell each other as much as you like that they are winning issues. Feel free - and get ready for another four years of Trump. Drop the stuff about impeachment - that makes you look petty and hypocritical.

And find somebody with charisma. None of the current crop has anything that resembles charisma. Buttigieg is the only one with even a tinge, and he has never run a national campaign yet, and it remains to be seen if he can maintain it over the next year and a half, even if he gets the nom, which he won't. Maybe he can run for VP, but that won't help.

Or, repeat over and over "Why should we listen to anyone but each other because WE'RE RIGHT DAMMIT AND EVERYONE ELSE IS WRONG WRONG WRONG!" and be prepared to spend the next four years outside the Oval Office looking in.

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Old 07-18-2019, 12:47 PM
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[LIST][*]Try to reduce the visibility of AOC, Omar, Tlaib - 'the Squad' - as much as possible. They are deeply unpopular. ]
The are deeply unpopular... among "likely general-election voters who are white and have two years or less of college education"
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Old 07-18-2019, 12:53 PM
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The are deeply unpopular... among "likely general-election voters who are white and have two years or less of college education"
In other words, people that go to Trump rallies.
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Old 07-18-2019, 12:58 PM
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Hillary lost because she lost the northern Midwest. So a candidate who does well there.

Mobilize the black vote, female vote, millennial vote and try to reach out to the small number of swing voters who are whites without college. Discourage the green party from running in swing states.

How to do that? I don't know.
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Old 07-18-2019, 01:02 PM
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Nominate Joe Biden right now. Right. fucking. now. Screw the debates. Forget the DNC convention bullshit. Just throw all the support behind JB. Joe may not be the democrat we want, but he's the democrat we need right now. Sorry, Liz. Sorry, Pete. It was never going to be you, Kamala. Or you, Bernie. You'll all be getting a call for senior cabinet positions. Thanks for coming out and please don't forget to validate your parking stubs.
Because nominating a neo-liberal centrist worked out so gloriously well in 2016?
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Old 07-18-2019, 01:09 PM
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First of all, how about some discussion or debate within the group of Democratic candidates about the issues. We currently have them mostly agreeing to the shift to the left agenda items. Argue and provide a choice among the candidates.

Second, abandon for now the hope that impeachment will save the day. It is like hoping that the ball game gets rained out or the other team doesn't show up so you win by default. Ain't going to happen so cut it out.

Abandon the "free candy" for everyone that cannot be paid for. Improvements in health care, income inequality, etc. are more nuanced than that. Who is going to be the grown up in the room who tells us that? And what it might cost.

And I am sorry, QuickSilver, Joe Biden is too old, too inside-the-beltway, too entrenched in the old school DC to win. And I have not seen anything from him that gives the impression that his heart is even in this. You can't fake the fire in the belly needed to win, and he does not want to. He is going through the motions. As inspiring and inevitable as Hillary was.

Joe is not in this to win and lead the party. This is his last hurrah and he is only doing this because he is expected to. It shows.
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Old 07-18-2019, 01:16 PM
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Nominate Joe Biden right now. Right. fucking. now. Screw the debates. Forget the DNC convention bullshit. Just throw all the support behind JB. Joe may not be the democrat we want, but he's the democrat we need right now. Sorry, Liz. Sorry, Pete. It was never going to be you, Kamala. Or you, Bernie. You'll all be getting a call for senior cabinet positions. Thanks for coming out and please don't forget to validate your parking stubs.
I guess if we keep rerunning the 2016 election, we've got to win it sooner or later, right?
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Old 07-18-2019, 01:20 PM
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To answer the OP's question:

Get as many people you know to register to vote. Ask them if they're registered, if not tell them how. Follow up. Make sure they go and vote on Election Day 2020. Offer rides, make phone calls.
Candidates should run on and debate the issues that affect all Americans today: climate, healthcare, wages, the issues that the GOP are weak on.
Stop paying as much attention to Trump and having him dominate the news. Unfollow, stop commenting, don't retweet, lets see if we can lower his time in the media.
After the Primary, vote for whoever wins the nomination, no matter who it is.
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Old 07-18-2019, 01:24 PM
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but I will keep in mind something my pappy once told me-"That guy sitting across from you at the table might be the friendliest person you ever set eyes on, but never forget that when he gives you some "friendly advice" he is at that table for the same reason you are."
Your family must have interesting Thanksgiving dinners.

The Democrats need to reach out to every group (deplorables excepted). For the poor: you'll get back on your feet. For the working classes: you'll get ahead. For the middle classes: you'll have an honorable country. For the business classes: you'll have stability. For whites: you're free and safe when everyone is free and safe. For minorities: you'll be free and safe. For Christians: you'll have a leader who knows the Beatitudes*. For other religions: you'll have a country that respects you.

The Democrats need to be seen reaching out to every group (deplorables excepted). Ignore Republican and Russian trolls. Stay on message. When reporters ask about trolling-de-jour, answer with what you'll do to help Average Joe.

Democrats need a 50-state, 3000-county organization. Organize locally, everywhere. Register voters. Follow up with newly registered voters. Follow up with long-time voters. Follow-up with everyone again.

*Seriously, any Democrat who debates Trump should have the Beatitudes memorized and recite any of them at any appropriate moment.
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Old 07-18-2019, 01:26 PM
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First of all, how about some discussion or debate within the group of Democratic candidates about the issues. We currently have them mostly agreeing to the shift to the left agenda items. Argue and provide a choice among the candidates.

Second, abandon for now the hope that impeachment will save the day. It is like hoping that the ball game gets rained out or the other team doesn't show up so you win by default. Ain't going to happen so cut it out.

Abandon the "free candy" for everyone that cannot be paid for. Improvements in health care, income inequality, etc. are more nuanced than that. Who is going to be the grown up in the room who tells us that? And what it might cost.

And I am sorry, QuickSilver, Joe Biden is too old, too inside-the-beltway, too entrenched in the old school DC to win. And I have not seen anything from him that gives the impression that his heart is even in this. You can't fake the fire in the belly needed to win, and he does not want to. He is going through the motions. As inspiring and inevitable as Hillary was.

Joe is not in this to win and lead the party. This is his last hurrah and he is only doing this because he is expected to. It shows.
Trump being impeached may make low information voters and swing voters less likely to support him.
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Old 07-18-2019, 01:49 PM
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Don’t rip yourselves apart in a civil war like 2016. The nominee might not pass a 100 question purity test and that’s ok.
No one has a perfect life, just like no one has the perfect spouse or perfect job or perfect house. We’re electing a president, not a God.

So glad Bernie, part II is a flop of a sequel so farm


Man, you really don't want that progressive tax rate and not-for-profit healthcare, don't you?
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Old 07-18-2019, 01:51 PM
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  • Try to reduce the visibility of AOC, Omar, Tlaib - 'the Squad' - as much as possible.
I don't see how that is possible. Trump is clearly going to run against 'the Squad' no matter who the actual nominee ends up being. The Nuremberg rally he held last night with the "send her back" chants will be the norm and main theme going forward.
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To answer the OP's question:

Get as many people you know to register to vote. Ask them if they're registered, if not tell them how. Follow up. Make sure they go and vote on Election Day 2020. Offer rides, make phone calls.
Candidates should run on and debate the issues that affect all Americans today: climate, healthcare, wages, the issues that the GOP are weak on.
Stop paying as much attention to Trump and having him dominate the news. Unfollow, stop commenting, don't retweet, lets see if we can lower his time in the media.
After the Primary, vote for whoever wins the nomination, no matter who it is.
Pretty much this, in particular the part I bolded.

The voter outreach and registration efforts need to happen particularly in the Rust Belt states Trump lost that previously went to Obama. Probably some of the other potential swing states like North Carolina, Iowa and Arizona as well but the focus should be on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. States that are solidly D like California, Illinois, New York and most of the Northeast will be good sources to raise money but I don't see a reason the ultimate nominee needs to spend much in the way of resources in those states.
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Old 07-18-2019, 01:56 PM
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Put heavy pressure on the bottom 10 to 12 candidates that are running just to get free publicity for the lesser offices they actually intend to run for to sign a pledge that if they stay in they will not run for any other office when they finally quit the race.
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Old 07-18-2019, 02:12 PM
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Trump being impeached may make low information voters and swing voters less likely to support him.
Not once the Senate finds him "not guilty".
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Old 07-18-2019, 02:17 PM
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... *Seriously, any Democrat who debates Trump should have the Beatitudes memorized and recite any of them at any appropriate moment.
I wonder what % of democrat voters would be turned off by their candidate reciting the Beatitudes from memory. I suspect it's more than a few.
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Old 07-18-2019, 02:20 PM
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I think that the Democrats need to get a coherent message, and then debate about how they fit within it, and how they're going to implement it. The Democrats can't afford to have AOC doing loose-cannon stuff like the Green New Deal without official party sanction or official party disavowment. Otherwise you end up with a lot of uncertainty about just what the party DOES stand for. Do they want all that GND stuff? Do they want Biden's less radical, but more workable stuff? Something in the middle?

That's the #1 missing thing- they appear to be ideologically scattered, with just a vague direction of various liberal ideas. The fact that they're not reining in AOC or Omar or openly championing her policies, and that they have dozens of candidates running makes the party look disorganized, weak and ineffectual as a party, and by extension, their candidates will appear to be tainted by the same stuff.
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Old 07-18-2019, 02:20 PM
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Because nominating a neo-liberal centrist worked out so gloriously well in 2016?
You spelled fascist wrong.

Who thought the fat orange racist was a neo-liberal centrist? The ones who claim to have voted for Obama and then decided to vote for the orange ass-clown? Studies I have read on the subject say the number of such claimants is greatly exaggerated with a variance of 35% because they all depend on self-reported data.
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Old 07-18-2019, 02:34 PM
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I guess if we keep rerunning the 2016 election, we've got to win it sooner or later, right?
I don't like it anymore than you do. Biden is not my first choice. But the Democrats can't seem to get out of their own way. Even Obama thinks it's a circular firing squad.

I like many/most of the progressive ideas and would want to see them implemented tomorrow. But if a centrist old school democrat like Biden stands the best chance of winning, I'd rather see him win rather than hold by breath like a petulant child until Bernie is nominated.
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Old 07-18-2019, 02:45 PM
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Abandon the "free candy" for everyone that cannot be paid for. Improvements in health care, income inequality, etc. are more nuanced than that. Who is going to be the grown up in the room who tells us that? And what it might cost.

And I am sorry, QuickSilver, Joe Biden is too old, too inside-the-beltway, too entrenched in the old school DC to win. And I have not seen anything from him that gives the impression that his heart is even in this. You can't fake the fire in the belly needed to win, and he does not want to. He is going through the motions. As inspiring and inevitable as Hillary was.

Joe is not in this to win and lead the party. This is his last hurrah and he is only doing this because he is expected to. It shows.
The guy who you say is too old and not invested enough is the one adult in the room that is saying what you want said and you're dismissing him.

Look, I don't think JB is progressive enough. I don't. I think Liz and Pete would make a great team with Liz at the helm. But neither one is going to punch Trump in the mouth like Joe can: On 5th avenue in broad daylight and get away with it.
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Old 07-18-2019, 02:47 PM
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Because nominating a neo-liberal centrist worked out so gloriously well in 2016?
Yup yup yup.

For all the talk of the appeal of centrism, for the last two decades the more extreme candidate of the two has won (other than maybe 2004) and coalescing around am experienced moderate/centrist during the primaries has proven to be a mistake.

I don't think it's a coincidence. America is polarized, and the number of people in the middle who know they will vote but don't know who they'll choose pales in comparison to the number of people further along one end or another of the spectrum choosing between voting and staying home.

Last edited by Les Wizerables; 07-18-2019 at 02:48 PM.
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Old 07-18-2019, 02:58 PM
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Les Wiz, I haven’t tended to agree with that point of view in the past, but you presented the evidence for it so succinctly and clearly, I’m moving toward your camp now. We must keep reminding ourselves that the person who received the most (non)votes in just about every national election has been “nobody.”
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Old 07-18-2019, 02:59 PM
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Democrats should argue for the practical benefits of their policies rather than try to tug at emotional heartstrings. If they point out that single-payer universal healthcare can save trillions of dollars in the long run, spare people from getting $50,000 hospital bills for a broken leg, etc. that can be a very winnable platform indeed.

If they try to argue for it on the basis of "those undocumented migrants NEED cheap healthcare!" it will crash and burn in the minds of many voters. Trying to invoke compassion often incites precisely the opposite sentiment. (not that it's right for voters to have that mental backlash - but just saying that they often do)
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Old 07-18-2019, 03:11 PM
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Because nominating a neo-liberal centrist worked out so gloriously well in 2016?
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You spelled fascist wrong.

Who thought the fat orange racist was a neo-liberal centrist? The ones who claim to have voted for Obama and then decided to vote for the orange ass-clown? Studies I have read on the subject say the number of such claimants is greatly exaggerated with a variance of 35% because they all depend on self-reported data.
Wait... you meant, HRC.

Just ignore that bit where I said everything.
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Old 07-18-2019, 03:30 PM
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Focus on turnout more than anything. If a relatively small fraction of those liberals and progressives who didn't vote in 2016 vote in 2020, the Democrats will win the presidency and House and very possibly the senate.

Almost everything else is secondary to this. Excite liberals and progressives and we probably win.
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Old 07-18-2019, 03:34 PM
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The conditions in which the Dems win the presidency:
1. They don't nominate Hillary
2. The Earth continues to revolve around the sun for ~550 more days.
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Old 07-18-2019, 03:37 PM
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I don't like it anymore than you do. Biden is not my first choice.
I'm not talking about candidate preference, I'm talking about winning. Biden v. Trump is a rerun of a contest we already lost. Doing it again and thinking it'll work this time is madness.
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Old 07-18-2019, 03:42 PM
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I'm not talking about candidate preference, I'm talking about winning. Biden v. Trump is a rerun of a contest we already lost. Doing it again and thinking it'll work this time is madness.
Maybe I'm completely out of touch but my sense is that people actually like Biden, where as too many merely tolerated HRC.
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Old 07-18-2019, 03:42 PM
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"those undocumented migrants NEED cheap healthcare!"
I know of no democrats pushing for universal healthcare using this reasoning.

I'd posit that democrats should not adjust their campaigns to pander to people who are never going to vote for them anyway. For example, no amount of talk about being a "lifelong hunter" is going to get the NRA's endorsement, or the votes of the people who care about the NRA's endorsement, so just skip all that. Effective pandering, or none at all.
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Old 07-18-2019, 03:44 PM
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Excite liberals and progressives and we probably win.
I think Trump has everybody sufficiently excited and motivated.
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Old 07-18-2019, 03:51 PM
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Move to impeach Trump on war crimes in Yemen.
That would ensure a trump re-election.
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Old 07-18-2019, 03:52 PM
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Nominate Joe Biden right now. Right. fucking. now. Screw the debates. Forget the DNC convention bullshit. Just throw all the support behind JB. Joe may not be the democrat we want, but he's the democrat we need right now. Sorry, Liz. Sorry, Pete. It was never going to be you, Kamala. Or you, Bernie. You'll all be getting a call for senior cabinet positions. Thanks for coming out and please don't forget to validate your parking stubs.
Yeah. I am not a huge Biden fan, but this would work. Stop the bernie bros from attacking Biden, shut Harris up.
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Old 07-18-2019, 03:54 PM
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I personally know progressives who would be in danger of staying home if Biden is the nominee. Dumb, and I'm hopeful that this is just talk, but it could be real. To guarantee their vote, they need someone they can believe in at least a little tiny bit.
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Old 07-18-2019, 03:58 PM
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You are going to have to shut the progressives up.

Anyone who voted for Trump last time is going to vote for him again. The SDMB and the other yellow dog Democrats will vote for anyone with a D after their name. Therefore you have to get the moderates.

Progressive ideas like the Green New Deal and free health care for illegal immigrants and reparations and all the other things that the yellow dog Dems love are unpopular with moderates. Y'all can tell each other as much as you like that they are winning issues. Feel free - and get ready for another four years of Trump. Drop the stuff about impeachment - that makes you look petty and hypocritical.
...
No, listen to them on issues. But make them stop attacking fellow dems.

That is not true. trump lied to the rust belt, and now they know it. That will be a big thing in the election.

No one is proposing "free health care for illegal immigrants ". What people are proposing is that we give people healthcare and dont check their citizen status first. That's totally different.

The Green New deal is not supposed to be a short term plan.

But you are correct about Impeachment. if they cant make it stick in the senate, dont do it. Pelosi knows this. AOC doesnt.
  #44  
Old 07-18-2019, 04:01 PM
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To answer the OP's question:

Get as many people you know to register to vote. Ask them if they're registered, if not tell them how. Follow up. Make sure they go and vote on Election Day 2020. Offer rides, make phone calls.....
After the Primary, vote for whoever wins the nomination, no matter who it is.
Yep, the higher the voter turn out, the more the Republicans lose, it's as simple as that.
  #45  
Old 07-18-2019, 04:06 PM
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Maybe I'm completely out of touch but my sense is that people actually like Biden, where as too many merely tolerated HRC.
Biden wouldn't have the baggage of a twenty year smear campaign hanging around his neck, true. But then, neither do any of the other candidates, so that advantage is sort of a wash.

And Biden himself is just a bad candidate. He has a history of running for president, starting out with good numbers, and then stepping on his dick over and over until his candidacy crumbles. Up 'til now, that's always happened during the primary. I'm very concerned that this time around, he'll hold it together long enough to get the nomination before he torpedoes himself. If we skip the nomination process altogether, as you suggested, that becomes even more likely.

More to the point, I think the lack of a vigorous primary cycle in 2016 left us with a candidate who was critically vulnerable in ways she didn't see, because she hadn't been tested. If she'd had to actually fight for the nomination against more than just Bernie, she might have gone into the general with a much stronger idea of what sort of campaign she needed to run. That, or the flaws in her campaign would have prevented her from getting the nomination at all, and a stronger candidate would have taken her place and possibly beaten Trump.

The current crowded democratic field is a good thing. If Biden's campaign can't survive taking shots from Kamala Harris, he's going to be absolutely fucked in the general against Trump. If we insulate him from taking any fire from his own side, we'll have no idea how much fire he'll be able to weather from the Republicans.
  #46  
Old 07-18-2019, 04:08 PM
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I'm not talking about candidate preference, I'm talking about winning. Biden v. Trump is a rerun of a contest we already lost. Doing it again and thinking it'll work this time is madness.
Nope, just the opposite. Look, Dems made a few mistakes in 2016, but soem of them will not be repeated.

538 sez that the biggest single cause of Hillary losing was the Comey memo. Not gonna happen in 2020. So, 100% solid, right there, with nothing else changed- belies that idea that trump vs Biden will be a rerun.

Next- the dems were over confident. We wont be this time.

Finally, not enuf attention was paid to the EC votes in the Rust belt. I doubt seriously, that whoever is the dem candidate, that they will make that mistake again.

So, saying things like "Biden v. Trump is a rerun of a contest we already lost. Doing it again and thinking it'll work this time is madness" is one thing that will help trump win.

And it's totally wrong.
  #47  
Old 07-18-2019, 04:09 PM
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Biden is so boring he makes Gore look like Mr. Excitement. Don't see any way he beats Trump. Same for Sanders and Warren.
  #48  
Old 07-18-2019, 04:10 PM
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Maybe I'm completely out of touch but my sense is that people actually like Biden, where as too many merely tolerated HRC.
Yep. The GOP hate machine and the Bernie bros made sure that the already somewhat unlikeable Hillary was downright hated by many.
  #49  
Old 07-18-2019, 04:11 PM
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I personally know progressives who would be in danger of staying home if Biden is the nominee. Dumb, and I'm hopeful that this is just talk, but it could be real. To guarantee their vote, they need someone they can believe in at least a little tiny bit.
If they get a progressive, the moderates will stay home, which is far worse.

The progressives will have to be happy with getting a solid progressive platform. If they arent happy with that, and stay home because it's Biden, then they deserve trump.
  #50  
Old 07-18-2019, 04:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Les Wizerables View Post
Yup yup yup.

For all the talk of the appeal of centrism, for the last two decades the more extreme candidate of the two has won (other than maybe 2004) and coalescing around am experienced moderate/centrist during the primaries has proven to be a mistake.

I don't think it's a coincidence. America is polarized, and the number of people in the middle who know they will vote but don't know who they'll choose pales in comparison to the number of people further along one end or another of the spectrum choosing between voting and staying home.
A short editorial in today's NY Times makes much the same point.
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