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  #51  
Old 01-15-2020, 01:09 PM
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I happen to agree 100% with Stephen King on the topic:



I think he has backpedaled a bit since saying that, which is a shame.

Why should anything but quality matter when awarding for quality?


mmm
Nobody is talking about any other factor than quality. NOBODY!

But when the gatekeepers are largely white and male, they will be the arbiters of what is considered "quality" and those standards, those criteria are going to be weighted toward what the white males most identify with, most relate to, most understand, are most moved by. Given this is Hollywood, you can add "rich" and "older" to that characterization, too.

And they are not going to be necessarily representative of what a larger, more diverse body of artists consider "quality". Not by a long shot. But those other voices, those opinions, those perspectives will always be marginalized as long as they are underrepresented among the gatekeepers.

This isn't about "compromising" on quality. It's about teaching a more homogeneous body that "quality" is more expansive, more subtle, and more complex than they will often give it credit for. Art forms are always going to change and evolve and voices and styles that are forward-thinking, outside the mainstream, and diverse are going to be hard to get used to and will take longer to gain credibility. History has shown that time has not always been kind to many Oscar-winners of other eras.

But the then-ignored films of past eras that are now often considered the great ones usually had contemporary champions if you knew where to look and where to listen. But that was rarely within the Hollywood establishment, even when those films were staring them in the face.

Those films are here now. But the establishment is still going to embrace what it wants and let films fall through the cracks left and right, both in the marketplace and the awards podium. This year was a particularly egregious example because of how disproportionately popular some films were at the expense of others that were (debatably) their equals. But that happens every year. It's the way things are but that doesn't make it any less frustrating. That's all.

So as the person who started this thread, I respectively ask that this line of debate be closed. If you want to continue it further, feel free to create your own thread and link it back to this one. But art will always be subjective and the standards people set for themselves will be informed by many different factors. Any further discussion on those standards should be specific to the Oscar-nominated films in competition currently, since like it or not, we know who are the final contenders and all others that didn't make the list will have to watch from the sidelines and continue to do their best in the future.

Thanks to everyone for the conversation! ~MM

Last edited by MovieMogul; 01-15-2020 at 01:12 PM.
  #52  
Old 01-15-2020, 06:30 PM
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Any pundit who writes an article objecting to the lack of diversity in a category should be required to state who they'd boot out. Which director would you kick out for Greta Gerwig? Or which actress for Jennifer Lopez? Makes your job a little tougher, don't it?

My personal opinion: I don't know. The lack of diversity is alarming but I don't have a solution so I'm not writing.
Which actress for Jennifer Lopez? That is so easy. Scarlet Johansson.
  #53  
Old 01-16-2020, 02:28 PM
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Which actress for Jennifer Lopez? That is so easy. Scarlet Johansson.
Agree 100%. This is the perfect example of people voting for a part (highly sympathetic character, funny and touching) rather than the performance. ScarJo is very good in Marriage Story and she's fine in Jojo but you see nothing that any number of other actresses couldn't have done. It really is impossible to imagine anyone but JLo in her part without completely changing the movie.
  #54  
Old 01-16-2020, 05:18 PM
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Any pundit who writes an article objecting to the lack of diversity in a category should be required to state who they'd boot out...
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Originally Posted by MovieMogul View Post
...So as the person who started this thread, I respectively ask that this line of debate be closed...
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Originally Posted by Hilarity N. Suze View Post
Which actress for Jennifer Lopez? That is so easy. Scarlet Johansson.
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Originally Posted by MovieMogul View Post
Agree 100%...
Wait, I'm losing track. Are we again allowed to discuss diversity in this thread?

Because I respectfully avoided responding to the OP's lengthy opinion on the topic - you know, the one that s/he concluded with the request that the subject be closed - only to see that the OP and those who agree with him/her are continuing the debate.

At least their side of it.


mmm
  #55  
Old 01-16-2020, 06:56 PM
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Wait, I'm losing track. Are we again allowed to discuss diversity in this thread?

Because I respectfully avoided responding to the OP's lengthy opinion on the topic - you know, the one that s/he concluded with the request that the subject be closed - only to see that the OP and those who agree with him/her are continuing the debate.

At least their side of it.


mmm
The first quote discusses diversity, the second quote is the OP respectfully asking to turn discussion to the specific nominations (my interpretation, admittedly). The last two quotes are discussion of an alternate acting performance for Best Supporting Actress, suggesting an actress explicitly listed as a strong contender for a nomination in the OP. I don't see anything in those last two posts that even touches on diversity as a topic.

In reply to the discussion, I would not have objected to Jennifer Lopez in the nominations. She stole the show in a nominally supporting performance in Hustlers. But I think Scarlett Johansson's performance in JoJo Rabbit is equally standout. For me, Laura Dern and ScarJo were mortal locks based on the sheer impact of their performances. Margot Robbie did an outstanding job in Bombshell and turned in another lead performance in a nominally supporting role, while Florence Pugh really nailed a new take on the character of Amy in Little Women. Kathy Bates is always outstanding, but the role she played and its place in the screenplay made it minor rather than major Bates.

So, if you must pop J Lo in, I'd sacrifice Bates, though I think all of the actresses gave really good performances, plus a few others I could list, so I'm not crushed by her exclusion.
  #56  
Old 01-16-2020, 07:36 PM
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I'm blown away people think Scarlett Johansson deserves a nomination for Jojo Rabbit. I loved that movie, but her part could have been played by a no-name actress just as well and it would receive no attention. She did not do a bad job, but the role was not a stand-out role at all.

The little kid in the movie, though. What a great performance!
  #57  
Old 01-16-2020, 09:40 PM
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The first quote discusses diversity, the second quote is the OP respectfully asking to turn discussion to the specific nominations (my interpretation, admittedly). The last two quotes are discussion of an alternate acting performance for Best Supporting Actress, suggesting an actress explicitly listed as a strong contender for a nomination in the OP. I don't see anything in those last two posts that even touches on diversity as a topic.

In reply to the discussion, I would not have objected to Jennifer Lopez in the nominations. She stole the show in a nominally supporting performance in Hustlers. But I think Scarlett Johansson's performance in JoJo Rabbit is equally standout. For me, Laura Dern and ScarJo were mortal locks based on the sheer impact of their performances. Margot Robbie did an outstanding job in Bombshell and turned in another lead performance in a nominally supporting role, while Florence Pugh really nailed a new take on the character of Amy in Little Women. Kathy Bates is always outstanding, but the role she played and its place in the screenplay made it minor rather than major Bates.

So, if you must pop J Lo in, I'd sacrifice Bates, though I think all of the actresses gave really good performances, plus a few others I could list, so I'm not crushed by her exclusion.
Thanks, yes, that was the intention. JLo racked up a ton of critic awards and nominations, so her exclusion is fair game in its conspicuousness, regardless of speculating the reasons that may or may not have been behind it.

And I haven't seen the Eastwood (and won't) so it doesn't surprise me that a role that got little attention gets a nod that goes to an Oscar-regular. It may be a good turn (Bates is always fairly reliable), but looking back over the Academy's alumni is an equally lazy way to fill out a slate instead of taking the chance of digging deeper for other options.
  #58  
Old 01-16-2020, 10:50 PM
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Thanks, yes, that was the intention. JLo racked up a ton of critic awards and nominations, so her exclusion is fair game in its conspicuousness, regardless of speculating the reasons that may or may not have been behind it.

And I haven't seen the Eastwood (and won't) so it doesn't surprise me that a role that got little attention gets a nod that goes to an Oscar-regular. It may be a good turn (Bates is always fairly reliable), but looking back over the Academy's alumni is an equally lazy way to fill out a slate instead of taking the chance of digging deeper for other options.
While I don't think Richard Jewell is one of the best films of the year, it is a well crafted, well cast movie that stays engaging for its entire length (I can't think of any Eastwood helmed pictures I would consider a "bad movie"). Eastwood has built a pretty formidable stable of actors that he can call on, but I think most of his films over the past few years are more musing on the state of mankind than "statement" projects, which ends up muting their potential.
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Old 01-17-2020, 12:38 AM
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About that whole "no bad Clint Eastwood movie" thing...

Last edited by JohnT; 01-17-2020 at 12:41 AM. Reason: Really, this place ought to allow for graphics. It would be more fun.
  #60  
Old 01-17-2020, 05:38 AM
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Did a two-fer yesterday, 1917 and Ford v Ferrari.

Ford v Ferrari was very entertaining but not without its flaws. I felt it was overlong. Some of the race scenes, while well done, could have been shortened. They got a bit repetitive after a while. And there were several cliched scenes I could have done without. Christian Bale's performance stood out.

I thoroughly enjoyed 1917. I had a nitpick or two, but I cannot remember what they were, so they must have been pretty insignificant. The two leads, who are relatively unknowns (brilliant casting decision), are perfect for the roles.


mmm
  #61  
Old 01-21-2020, 01:32 PM
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Well, some of the major guild weighed in over the weekend.

1917 won the Producers Guild award for Best Picture, which cements it as a significant front-runner, though by no means a foregone conclusion.

The SAG awards went largely as expected, with front-runners (and Globe winners) Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt & Dern taking the individual acting categories. Half the time, the 4 SAG winners repeat at the Oscars but the other half, one of the four gets replaced by an alternative at the Academy. Zellweger seems the most vulnerable in my book, but her speech at SAG was sweet and ingratiating (and very different from the one at the Globes).

But the big takeaway at SAG was the Ensemble award, which went to Parasite, the first time that award has ever gone to a Foreign Language picture (and notable given its considerable competition, many fellow Best Picture nominees). The acting branch is the largest at AMPAS and this kind of support is not to be underestimated, though it still should be seen as a Dark Horse since no Foreign Language Film has ever taken the top prize with the Academy (though last year's Roma probably came the closest).

Next--the Directors and Writers guilds and then the Oscars themselves, right around the corner: T-19 days and counting.
  #62  
Old 01-21-2020, 06:48 PM
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We saw 1917 yesterday (6 down, 3 to go). Not sure if it's the best film, or my favorite film, but it's sure a darn good film. The scene -- featured in the trailer -- of our protagonist sprinting along the trench as the soldiers go over the top, is much much more effective in context, with music. I was totally verklempt.
  #63  
Old 01-27-2020, 02:13 PM
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Well, the DGA awards were over the weekend and Sam Mendes won for 1917. This is big because the DGAs have the single best record for predicting winners. In the last 20 years (when Mendes won his American Beauty Oscar), the number of DGA winners that did not go on to win the Best Director Oscar are three:

Ang Lee, CROUCHING TIGER HIDDEN DRAGON (which won Foreign Film but lost Director to TRAFFIC/Soderbergh)
Rob Marshall, CHICAGO (which won Best Picture but lost Director to THE PIANIST/Polanski)
Ben Affleck, ARGO (which won Best Picture but Affleck wasn't nominated for Director)

So even on the off-chance that Mendes loses director, it still seems fairly safe that 1917 will win Picture, especially with the PGA win too.

Other awards I think it has an excellent chance of winning:

Cinematography
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing

That puts it at 4-5 minimum, a tally I don't see any other film being able to reach. So I think it will walk away with the most awards, even if there are some surprises in store.

Voting begins this week, the Writers Guild is this coming weekend and the ceremony is the weekend after that (Feb. 9).
  #64  
Old 02-01-2020, 09:55 PM
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If it isn't presumptuous, I thought I'd use this thread for some additional categories. The bundled nominees for animated, live, and documentary short subjects were released to theaters this week, so everyone has a chance to see them and weigh in. For the record, the nominees are:

Best Animated Short:
“Dcera,” Czech Republic
“Hair Love,” USA
“Kitbull,” USA
“Memorable,”France
“Sister,” China/USA

Best Live Action Short Film:
“Brotherhood,” Tunisia
“Nefta Football Club,” Tunisia/France
“The Neighbors’ Window,” USA
“Saria,” USA
“A Sister,” Belgium

Best Documentary Short Subject:
“In the Absence,” Korea
“Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone,” USA
“Life Overtakes Me,” USA
“St. Louis Superman,” USA
“Walk Run Cha-Cha,” USA

I saw the animated and live action bundles today. I may not get to the documentaries by the Oscars, but I'll try.

The live action and animated entries contain a lot more downbeat films than I was expecting (especially the animated clips).

In the animated group, my reluctant favorite was Kitbull, which is the Disney/Pixar entry, and is probably the favorite to win. Based on the audience reaction in the theater, Hair Love and Memorable may be dark horse contenders, I like Hair Love a lot, but was lukewarm on Memorable (yeah, yeah, it's hell getting old, but do we have to have one of these at every Oscars?).

Among the live action shorts, I liked A Sister and The Neighbors' Window the most. A Sister is reminiscent of last year's Mother, which didn't win, so I'm going to put my money on The Neighbors' Window, which definitely hits you in the feels, but is peppered with humor. Of the others, Brotherhood and Saria are just relentlessly downbeat and Nefta Football Club is, in the end, just a shaggy dog story.
  #65  
Old 02-03-2020, 07:57 PM
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Well, the BAFTAs happened over the weekend and the top prizes appear to be more locked than ever:

1917/Mendes
Phoenix/Zellweger/Pitt/Dern

The biggest surprise was that the screenplay winners (Original: PARASITE; Adapted: JOJO RABBIT) mirrored the WGA wins, which also happened over the weekend.

So while I think Greta Gerwig still has an outside chance for Adapted for LITTLE WOMEN, Bong Joon Ho is the hands-down favorite in Original and any other winner would be considered an upset (though QT shouldn't be completely counted out).

KLAUS won Animated Feature, which means there is no front-runner there, but considering that the non-Disney alternatives aren't finding any consensus, it wouldn't surprise me if Woody & Buzz pull off another win (even though this category has a notorious track record of rejecting sequels).

Going into this weekend, the writing on the wall suggests that:

* 1917 will probably win the most awards even if it doesn't sweep Pic/Director
* PARASITE is likely to win something more than just International Feature
* It should surprise no one if THE IRISHMAN gets completely shut out, 0-for-10.
* Despite having the most nominations, JOKER's victory total is unlikely to exceed 3.
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Old 02-03-2020, 08:40 PM
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* 1917 will probably win the most awards even if it doesn't sweep Pic/Director
* PARASITE is likely to win something more than just International Feature
* It should surprise no one if THE IRISHMAN gets completely shut out, 0-for-10.
* Despite having the most nominations, JOKER's victory total is unlikely to exceed 3.
I suspect perhaps Bong Joon-ho wins Best Director since he has a lot of great movies behind him, but Parasite fails to win Best Picture even though it is the best of the nominated movies.

I think there is a real chance Parasite pulls off a Best Picture win, but I agree it is unlikely.

"If not now, when?" is becoming kind of a motto for Parasite winning.

I agree with the headline, "The Oscars Need Parasite more than Parasite Needs The Oscars."
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Old 02-04-2020, 07:30 PM
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If it isn't presumptuous, I thought I'd use this thread for some additional categories. The bundled nominees for animated, live, and documentary short subjects were released to theaters this week, so everyone has a chance to see them and weigh in. For the record, the nominees are:

Best Animated Short:
“Dcera,” Czech Republic
“Hair Love,” USA
“Kitbull,” USA
“Memorable,”France
“Sister,” China/USA

Best Live Action Short Film:
“Brotherhood,” Tunisia
“Nefta Football Club,” Tunisia/France
“The Neighbors’ Window,” USA
“Saria,” USA
“A Sister,” Belgium

Best Documentary Short Subject:
“In the Absence,” Korea
“Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone,” USA
“Life Overtakes Me,” USA
“St. Louis Superman,” USA
“Walk Run Cha-Cha,” USA

I saw the animated and live action bundles today. I may not get to the documentaries by the Oscars, but I'll try.

The live action and animated entries contain a lot more downbeat films than I was expecting (especially the animated clips).

In the animated group, my reluctant favorite was Kitbull, which is the Disney/Pixar entry, and is probably the favorite to win. Based on the audience reaction in the theater, Hair Love and Memorable may be dark horse contenders, I like Hair Love a lot, but was lukewarm on Memorable (yeah, yeah, it's hell getting old, but do we have to have one of these at every Oscars?).

Among the live action shorts, I liked A Sister and The Neighbors' Window the most. A Sister is reminiscent of last year's Mother, which didn't win, so I'm going to put my money on The Neighbors' Window, which definitely hits you in the feels, but is peppered with humor. Of the others, Brotherhood and Saria are just relentlessly downbeat and Nefta Football Club is, in the end, just a shaggy dog story.
Thanks for this! (though I didn't read it out of fear of even mild spoilers--I'll be seeing all 3 collections of shorts before the ceremony).
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Old 02-04-2020, 08:18 PM
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Thanks for this! (though I didn't read it out of fear of even mild spoilers--I'll be seeing all 3 collections of shorts before the ceremony).
I try to avoid specific spoilers in threads like this, but after rereading my post, I guess if you read my comments before going to the theater, you'd know more about the general mood/theme of the short from the start, which can take away from fully enjoying the short. So you were probably right to avoid at least the last two paragraphs of the post.
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Old 02-04-2020, 08:25 PM
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* It should surprise no one if THE IRISHMAN gets completely shut out, 0-for-10.
Is Hollywood biased against Netflix and its movies? I'm just a moviegoer and I am, partly because they don't make it easy to see their movies in theaters.
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Old 02-05-2020, 01:31 PM
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Is Hollywood biased against Netflix and its movies? I'm just a moviegoer and I am, partly because they don't make it easy to see their movies in theaters.
Well, THE IRISHMAN earned 10 Oscar nods, MARRIAGE STORY another 6, and THE TWO POPES another 3, collectively garnering 2 Picture nominations, 3 screenplay nominations, and 7 acting nominations total. So clearly, the calibre of films they're producing is such that it largely overcomes whatever bias there might be as a result of their relentless campaigning.

But when it comes to rewarding the films at the end of the day, it's still too early to tell. ROMA was a poor example to go by because as fantastic as that film was (and as successful as Netflix was in helping Cuaron get 3 more Oscars for such a highly personal and gutsy movie), getting any foreign language film the top prize was always going to be an uphill battle regardless.

Netflix is getting films made that would be hard (if not impossible) to get made within the Hollywood establishment without some major financial concessions or artistic compromises, so many creatives embrace it in principle (and having the likes of Scorsese, Baumbach and Meirelles involved doesn't hurt).

But the fact that these films get funneled straight to their platform with little more than cursory lip service to the theatrical model (and only in major markets for a brief window) is a harbinger that many also fear is in the future--that the line between movies and home entertainment will get even more blurred and muddy. Essentially, for the last few decades, theatrical releases have rarely been little more than extended advertisements for the film's life in a home market, but at least the B.O. still mattered (especially opening weekend) and the big screen still had some symbolic power.

But those days are fading fast, so there may be some latent resentment that the Oscars (which are specifically designed to celebrate cinematic craftsmanship in a different way than, say, the Emmys) shouldn't be poached of such major awards by films that were never meant to provide a genuine cinematic experience for a majority of Americans.

This year probably won't provide a whole lot of clarity because one of their films was a 3.5 hour movie that would've never seen a runtime of that length if it was really meant for the cinemas, and two of the other films are essentially fantastic examples of what most networks would have premiered on their platforms and advertised as prestige projects with big-name casts (something that films had largely ceded to the rich variety of content on cable) without bothering with distribution at all.

So I think the controversies around THE IRISHMAN hurt its chances more than an anti-Netflix bias, and MARRIAGE and POPES were the kind of mid-level films (in terms of budget, not quality) that still score the top prize sometimes (MOONLIGHT, SPOTLIGHT, CRASH) but still have to compete with larger and more elaborate productions--like 1917. So nothing they were bringing to the table was a slam dunk, and virtually everyone associated with the films (except Laura Dern) will probably go home empty-handed.

But Netflix is not going to stop and it's something the voters (who probably watch most of the nominees at home anyway) will have to get used to as the new norm.

Last edited by MovieMogul; 02-05-2020 at 01:33 PM.
  #71  
Old 02-07-2020, 09:50 PM
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Among the live action shorts, I liked A Sister and The Neighbors' Window the most. A Sister is reminiscent of last year's Mother, which didn't win, so I'm going to put my money on The Neighbors' Window, which definitely hits you in the feels, but is peppered with humor. Of the others, Brotherhood and Saria are just relentlessly downbeat and Nefta Football Club is, in the end, just a shaggy dog story.
My main problem with A SISTER is that while it was well-executed, it was essentially a rehash of the domestic nightmare scenario that has been a recurring theme for the last decade in this category (and nowhere near as good as the brilliant JUST BEFORE LOSING EVERYTHING). It was definitely better than last year's MOTHER though (which was little more than a premise).

THE NEIGHBORS' WINDOW was very touching, but felt too schematic to me, and you nailed my issue with NEFTA exactly (though it was nice having something funny in the mix). And SARIA had some really remarkable moments but I felt it was too hogtied to its "Based-on-a-True-Story" finale.

I thought BROTHERHOOD was the best of the bunch, because it gives its characters a chance to breathe and to allow the tensions unfold gradually while also allowing a more meditative look at the life around the family. Also, the finale may be downbeat, but its rooted in a character’s failings rather than something more systemic or institutional. In short, we hold responsibility for the world we create and the weight of this realization by the main character is the most poignant moment in any of the films.

But the real miracle is that while they all may not be perfect, none of them genuinely suck either (and I can't remember the last time I could say that in this category; the past has been riddled with stinkers, many of which walked away with the top prize). So facing a slate of films where it wouldn't be a disaster if any of them won, that alone is a huge relief.
  #72  
Old 02-09-2020, 01:54 PM
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Saw the other shorts so for Documentaries, I'd rank them:

1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if You're a Girl)
2. St. Louis Superman
3. Life Overtakes Me
4. In the Absence
5. Walk Run Cha-Cha

I wouldn't have a problem if 1-3 won, though the collective outrage over the tragedy in ABSENCE might put it over the top (I'm predicting SKATEBOARD). And yes, that horrific tale of corruption is staggering in the cruelty, incompetence, and loss. But the filmmaking itself isn't that special, imho (mostly compiling found footage seasoned with a few interviews).

As for animated shorts, my ranking would be:

1. Daughter
2. Hair Love
3. Kitbull
4. Memorable
5. Sister

I think the Czech film is leaps and bounds over the others, but 2-3 are both exceedingly charming and old school in its cel animation craftsmanship so I'd be fine with either. As for #4, I'll admit to being a bit jaded because the meme of memory loss and the onset of dementia is a trope that's so common in animated shorts (I see a lot of them on the circuit and in festivals) that it felt all too familiar, even if the stop-motion design (w/some obvious digital assists) was well done--though not as good as the stop-motion and visual intimacy of DAUGHTER.

As for last night's Spirit Awards, because there was so little overlap with the Oscar nominees, they didn't provide much insight into things. Zellweger was the only front-runner who was eligible (she won) and the screenplay for MARRIAGE STORY (which also won) was not up against any of its competition tonight (Baumbach even joked that he was glad he wasn't up against PARASITE in that category). PARASITE won, of course, but was only competing in the International category.

But it was nice to see THE LIGHTHOUSE win two (which is more wins than it has nominations tonight) and while UNCUT GEMS got plenty of love (Director, Actor, Editing), I'm incredibly glad Best Picture went to THE FAREWELL--for my money, the single most egregious example of a worthy film being completely shut out by the Academy this year (it also won Supporting Actress).

Onward to tonight!
  #73  
Old 02-09-2020, 02:14 PM
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Kitbull should be best animated short winner

I saw all Best Picture nominees and here's my take
First tier (any of these should win): Jojo Rabbit (personal choice), Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Second tier (great movies but not Best Picture): Ford vs Ferrari (too formulaic and changed important facts for Hollywoodness), Parasite (good but just not top tier), 1917 (too formulaic, Is it true German solders couldn't hit anyone 5 feet away?)
Third tier: A Marriage Story (Kramer vs Kramer in 2020), The Irishman (Casino meets Goodfellas), Little Women (everyone was so unlikable except Chris Copper and Bob Odenkirk)
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  #74  
Old 02-09-2020, 07:38 PM
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It's a cold and rainy road to the Oscars this year. Yesterday was sunshine and low 70's. Today is low 60's and showers. It's still time to stake my picks.

My picks for the majors:

Best Picture:
Will Win: “1917”
Should Win: “Parasite”
Parasite is simply the best motion picture on this list, though if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Little Women, or Marriage Story won I wouldn't shed tears of frustration and rage. Joker is a great performance, but not a great movie. Jojo Rabbit, while it isn't Life is Beautiful for the 2020's, doesn't fully reconcile its dramatic and comedic sides. 1917 is a well made movie, but it isn't even the most exciting, authentic movie about World War I in the last couple of years. On a side note, if you ask me which of these films will be the most streamed/watched 10 years from now, my money would be on Little Women.

Director:
Will Win: Sam Mendes, “1917”
Should Win: Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
This is a mixed bag. Joker is elevated more by a monumental performance than directing, Scorsese's film has his own track record to deal with and it is not going to be in his top 5 when all is said and done. I wouldn't mind if Tarantino won, it's an Oscar worthy film and one of his best. Mendes demonstrates meticulous planning and editing, but, well, see above.

Lead Actor:
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
The only nominee whose win would cause me to go WTF?, is Pryce, which is not to say it is a bad performance, but it is nothing that stretches the performer or the picture. Any of the others is IMHO Oscar worthy, but the performance by Phoenix is Joker and is a primary reason it is such a box office juggernaut.

Lead Actress:
Will Win: Renee Zellweger, “Judy”
Should Win:Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
I would not mind it if Ronan or Theron won, but I don't assign weight to a performance that is "an amazing copy" of a very famous person. Zellweger is a very good actress and any good performer can come up with an amazing copy of someone who is well documented, I did not see Harriet, but if Erivo wins, it will be the upset of the decade.

Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Should Win: Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
I would be a bit verklempt if Pesci wins, and his performance was certainly Oscar worthy (plus it is one of the few performances that is a true supporting role, not a co-star role). Hanks, Hopkins, and Pacino gave top notch performances, but did not, IMHO, push the envelope is a way that distinguished them

Supporting Actress:
Will Win:Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Should Win: Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
It's Dern's year. Of the others, all but Bates is, IMHO, Oscar worthy and wouldn't cause me heartburn if they won. Bates' performance was another that perfectly fit the film, but did not elevate the character or the film sufficiently.

Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: “Jojo Rabbit,” Taika Waititi
Should Win: “Little Women,” Greta Gerwig
Though I could see this category being a sort of consolation prize for The Irishman.

Original Screenplay:
Will Win: “Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho, Jin Won Han
Should Win: “Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho, Jin Won Han
Though frankly only a win by 1917 would truly disappoint me,

Best International Feature Film:
Will Win: “Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho
Should Win: “Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho
No contest here.

ETA: Shorts: If you are betting, bet Brotherhood (Live), Kitbull (Animated), In the Absence (Documentary)

Last edited by peccavi; 02-09-2020 at 07:40 PM. Reason: shorts
  #75  
Old 02-10-2020, 12:50 AM
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The 2019 Road to the Oscars thread


Well now peccavi, looks like all you missed were Picture and Director. Parasite for the win!

Last edited by Kolak of Twilo; 02-10-2020 at 12:54 AM.
  #76  
Old 02-10-2020, 07:21 AM
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I don't think Parasite was the best movie of the year, but it was the best of the nominated movies.

I'm happy that something actually interesting won.
  #77  
Old 02-10-2020, 08:08 AM
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The only thing that truly befuddled me was Renee Zellweger getting the nod as Best Actress over Cynthia Erivo who dominated the screen as "Harriet".
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  #78  
Old 02-10-2020, 08:10 AM
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parasite is on Amazon now for rental and purchase
  #79  
Old 02-10-2020, 08:47 AM
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Well now peccavi, looks like all you missed were Picture and Director. Parasite for the win!
And my two misses were Should Wins, so I'm not that unhappy about missing my predictions.
  #80  
Old 02-10-2020, 08:51 AM
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"Parasite" was a strange movie with unremarkable acting, but it had a significant message. Hollywood decided it was time for a foreign film to win the award, and that was certainly as good a choice as any.
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Last edited by Jasmine; 02-10-2020 at 08:52 AM.
  #81  
Old 02-10-2020, 09:44 AM
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To be honest, I think it's a little unfair for Parasite to win both best picture and best international picture; if they were voting for it for one, they should have left the other for a different movie. But I am glad that Netflix was almost completely shut out (aside from Laura Dern, who by all accounts deserved it), despite spending what I heard was $70 million on its Oscar campaign.
  #82  
Old 02-10-2020, 11:12 AM
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And my two misses were Should Wins, so I'm not that unhappy about missing my predictions.
Congratulations. Nobody really expected Parasite to win Best Picture, though a lot of people thought it should win (evidently enough to vote for it).

I would say it was the best of the Best Picture nominees I've seen. (I haven't seen 1917 (yet), Little Women, Marriage Story, or Ford vs Ferrari.) It was certainly by far the most interesting and original of the nominees. (Jo Jo Rabbit was also quite original, but it didn't have the complexity or emotional range of Parasite.)
  #83  
Old 02-10-2020, 11:47 AM
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I saw all of the Best Picture nominees. I was kind of pulling for Jo Jo Rabbit, but thought Little Women might win. Was very surprised Parasite won even though I loved the movie.
  #84  
Old 02-10-2020, 12:16 PM
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To be honest, I think it's a little unfair for Parasite to win both best picture and best international picture; if they were voting for it for one, they should have left the other for a different movie.
The problem with that is, who knows how many people would then claim, "Parasite isn't really Best Picture as it lost to a movie that wasn't eligible for Best Picture"?
  #85  
Old 02-10-2020, 03:23 PM
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"Parasite" was a strange movie with unremarkable acting, but it had a significant message.
Disagree about the acting; I thought it was a fine ensemble cast. I suppose it's a strange film but not that strange; it's a genre bending film quite similar to Barton Fink and IMO better executed.
  #86  
Old 02-10-2020, 04:25 PM
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Having a separate category for International Films while allowing them also to be eligible for Best Picture, creates a quandry (which is shared by Best Animated Film). If you want to recognize non-US film making, you have to carve out a separate category because they can't compete on equal footing with English-language films. Having their own category allows these movies without a big US audience to be showcased and recognized.

The problem is, if a film is nominated in both categories, it is easier to not give it Best Picture because you can give Best International as a consolation prize. Who knows if Roma might have beaten Shape of Water if the voters didn't have the option to vote for both? On the other hand, if a film does manage to win both, it kind of feels like double-dipping.

I am NOT arguing that foreign films shouldn't be eligible for BP. I don't really have a good solution until foreign language films get the same distribution and visibility in the US as English language films, which is probably never.

I don't think we've had an animated film be a serious Best Picture contender, although a few have been nominated. It's the same situation.
  #87  
Old 02-10-2020, 05:27 PM
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I don't think we've had an animated film be a serious Best Picture contender, although a few have been nominated. It's the same situation.
Beauty and the Beast (1991) was nominated for BP, back when there were only 5 nominees and there was no Best Animated category. That's pretty serious.

Last edited by jsc1953; 02-10-2020 at 05:27 PM.
  #88  
Old 02-11-2020, 02:33 PM
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As fantastic (and amazing) as the news was the PARASITE took 4 major Oscars (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, International Film), the even better news is that this wasn't a random left-field event but the result of some marvelous long-gestating trends in the Academy recently.

Last year, Alfonso Cuaron won Best Director for ROMA, the first time a foreign-language film ever won that category (and Pawel Pawlikowski was one of the other 4 nominees, for the Polish COLD WAR). In the 7 years before that, 6 of the winners were directors who got their starts in foreign-language film industries before migrating to do the periodic Hollywood film.

And the most amazing thing is that, unlike the nominated film directors in the 60s & 70s who were almost exclusively European (most notably Fellini & Bergman), films and filmmakers from Latin America and Asia (which have traditionally had a harder time penetrating the US awards sphere) have been the most prominently represented this last decade.

So this wasn't just a unique exception, but a movement with real momentum which now has been given an official seal of approval that there is no barrier that can't be breached, no category off the table. So I really do hope to see more of this to come in the future.

As for the official tallies from that night. Oscars won:

4 - PARASITE
3 - 1917
2 - FORD V FERRARI, JOKER, ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD

Plus wins for Best Picture nominees JOJO RABBIT, LITTLE WOMEN and MARRIAGE STORY. So sharing the wealth was the final walkaway, and a pretty fair one to these eyes (even if I don't agree on all of the choices).
  #89  
Old 02-11-2020, 02:38 PM
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The problem is, if a film is nominated in both categories, it is easier to not give it Best Picture because you can give Best International as a consolation prize.
Which I'm certain is what has happened in the past on occasion (ROMA and CROUCHING TIGER being the ones who probably came closest to getting the top prize).

So that will always be an inherent danger and likely outcome, but we know now that it needn't be and hopefully people will feel free to give more foreign-language films a chance on their ballots, not just in pic but hopefully in some other categories, too.
  #90  
Old 02-11-2020, 04:07 PM
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Which I'm certain is what has happened in the past on occasion (ROMA and CROUCHING TIGER being the ones who probably came closest to getting the top prize).
Crouching Tiger had actual Best Picture buzz for sure and I was disappointed when it lost.
  #91  
Old 02-11-2020, 04:38 PM
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Last year, Roma was definitely favored to win, and it was actually a bit of a surprise when Green Book won instead (and Spike Lee, for one, was pissed that Green Book won).
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