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  #51  
Old 10-09-2019, 04:31 AM
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Sending excess males overseas/on adventure/the Army is a long standing solution to such problems. One thing that isn't appreciated (expecially for India) by most people in this thread is that the gender ratio imbalance is not evenly distributed some regions have much higher rates than others, so a lot of such immigration is internal.

It actually become a political issue in India, since they have ,multiple violent insurgencies, one suggestion by the Indian Hindu nationalist Government has been to move bachelor men from one part to a rebel area and marry the women.
Like in occupied Kashmir.
  #52  
Old 10-09-2019, 05:29 AM
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It actually become a political issue in India, since they have ,multiple violent insurgencies, one suggestion by the Indian Hindu nationalist Government has been to move bachelor men from one part to a rebel area and marry the women.
Like in occupied Kashmir.
One swallow does not a summer make - you mention this like it were declared policy of the "Hindu nationalist" government. My reading is the lawmaker's comment points more to India's obsession with fair-skinned girls than anything else. Besides the sex ratio in Kashmir is already in favor of men.
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  #53  
Old 10-09-2019, 08:19 AM
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While I understand the reasoning behind that, the problem from MY viewpoint is that you're treating women as a commodity or prize rather than human beings. If you guarantee that the young men serving WILL be getting a wife, then you must, as a consequence, take choice away from women. There may be some men that will have a choice of women (as there is now) but the less desirable men will have the problem of women being reluctant to marry them, so the only way to fulfill the promise is to force women to marry them.

Of course, you can run a society where women are chattel - there are numerous examples - but personally I have great distaste for that.
One way would be to kind of "pay" the women to marry certain men. They could be promised a house and never have to work outside the home or something. That might very well appeal to a Chinese woman laboring 12 hours a day for pennies in a factory.
  #54  
Old 10-09-2019, 10:59 AM
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There's also the consequences of the Little Emperor syndrome. You have millions of young men who were brought up in a family environment where they were treated as the center of the world. But once they get out in the real world they find that not only are they not the center of it but they are surrounded by all these other men who are equally self-centered.
Why single out men? Single daughters are in the same boat.
  #55  
Old 10-09-2019, 11:03 AM
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On top of what's been said before, I figure it's an incentive for Chinese men to study, work and settle abroad (well, even more than historically) with an eye towards getting a wife before coming back to the Old Country. That being said, I don't know (and would be curious to know) what the socio-cultural cost of having a non-Chinese wife is.
Unfortunately, the Chinese men who are most affected by this gender gap (namely, poor men living in rural regions, where the shortage of women is most dire) are precisely the kind of people for whom traveling abroad to study and work is virtually impossible. These are people struggling to get by on mere dollars a day.
  #56  
Old 10-09-2019, 11:13 AM
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Female immigration will bring its own long term problems. Chinese society has depended on ethnic homogeneity in defining itself. But in a generation you're going to have a large number of Chinese people who have a Han father and a mother from some other country. That's going to force a major re-adjustment in the popular view of what it means to be Chinese.
China has never been ethnically homogeneous. Going back to the Three Kingdoms period we see barbarian tribes that are today in the middle of what we would thing of as Han country. China swallowed up surrounding tribes and absorbed them. Here is one example. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Barbarians
  #57  
Old 10-09-2019, 11:17 AM
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Unfortunately, the Chinese men who are most affected by this gender gap (namely, poor men living in rural regions, where the shortage of women is most dire) are precisely the kind of people for whom traveling abroad to study and work is virtually impossible. These are people struggling to get by on mere dollars a day.
And they have difficulty moving from poor rural regions to the cities.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_passport

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The People's Republic of China (PRC) maintains a system of residency registration in mainland China known as hukou, by which government permission is needed to formally change one's place of residence. It is enforced with identity cards. This system effectively controlled internal migration before the 1980s, but subsequent market reforms caused it to collapse as a means of migration control. An estimated 150 to 200 million people are part of the "blind flow" and have unofficially migrated, generally from poor, rural areas to wealthy, urban ones. However, unofficial residents are often denied official services such as education and medical care and are sometimes subject to both social and political discrimination.
  #58  
Old 10-12-2019, 01:53 PM
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Romance is in the air ... or maybe not


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One thing that might help somewhat is that Russia, which neighbors China, has a surplus of women. There are significantly fewer men in Russia than women. Problem is, most of those Russian women are in western Russia, far from China. And even if they interacted with Chinese men, there would be a formidable two-way language barrier betwixt the two of them, and that's not taking into account whether they would want to intermarry to begin with.

Otherwise, in theory, millions of Russian single women could marry millions of single Chinese men. It would only suffice to solve a tiny fraction of the problem, but it's worth a shot.
In theory, yes, but my understanding is that Russian women are not enamored of Chinese men. Judging by the dating sites, they prefer Westerners. Historically, their culture has never been pro-Chinese anyway.

And the Russian men? You don't see many on the dating sites. And what do the Russian women think of their menfolk? I gather that one piece of advice given to young women was "marry a [Russian] Hew, they don't drink."
  #59  
Old 10-12-2019, 01:55 PM
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The thing I notice about the gender ratio from that original article is that, even knowing their sons are going to have a shit-ton of trouble finding women to marry them does not appear to have fixed the Indian and Chinese preferences for having sons. Those are nice projections there showing the gender-birth-gap closing but they're just projections - it hasn't actually happened yet. Dowry is still a thing in India, sexism is still prevalent in both countries ... there's a deep aversion to responding to a lack of women by giving women an actual better deal in life, or prioritising women higher than men.
In India the gender gap has been fueled by abortions of fetuses that were determined to be female, due to the desire to have sons..
  #60  
Old 10-12-2019, 02:00 PM
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I am sure you are basing this on your deep knowledge of the areas in question backed up by years of research.
I've heard the same thing about India. Rural areas have always been places where new additions to the family could be quietly removed if surplus to requirements. The wealthier urbanites get ultrasound tests and abort if the fetus is female. It's only a question of timing.

As for redressing the sex ratio, both Finland and Russia had a big imbalance after WW2. Finland seems to be back to normal now, AFAIK, but Russia has not. Are they putting something in the vodka?
  #61  
Old 10-12-2019, 02:04 PM
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^ This as well.

Also, allowing polyandry might help as well, but again I have no idea of the actual feasibility of that. There are some cultures that have polyandry, but they're rare.
Tibet was one.
  #62  
Old 10-13-2019, 08:20 PM
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It has apparently contributed to an increase in crime, violent and property crime in particular. The study used variations in province data to make the case. Interesting also is that the poorer provinces had smaller skews ... reflecting likely males differentially migrating for jobs. But as to the impact on crime ...
Quote:
... we estimate an elasticity of crime with respect to the
16Ė25 sex ratio of 3.4, implying that higher sex ratios may
account for up to one-seventh of the overall rise in violent
and property crime during our study period (1988Ė2004). As
a point of reference, the next two decades will likely see
another 10% increase in the sex ratio of young adults. ...
More similar and more recent data this seeing an impact on financial crime in particular.
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The study collects data from male inmates of a Chinese prison and similar non-inmates, and shows that the skewed sex ratio accounts for a 34% increase in Chinaís rate of incarceration.

This increase in crime is mainly due to the financial pressures that men face in attracting a wife. Men are finding it difficult, and in many cases impossible, to find a wife and brides are becoming increasingly expensive. It is not unusual for families to expect the bridegroom to supply an apartment and a substantial cash gift, often amounting to more than ten thousand pounds.

This turns some unmarried men to financially rewarding crimes. A high ratio of men to women in a manís marriage market (defined in relation to his age and geographical origin) is shown to be associated with higher rates of financial crimes, not physically violent crimes.

A further (smaller) portion of the increase in crime is due to an increased willingness to take risks and increased neuroticism among men who grew up in heavily male environments. Behaviour in experimental games and responses to survey questions show that men who grew up surrounded by more boys than girls are more impatient, risk-loving and neurotic.

Risk-taking and neuroticism are strongly associated with the probability of engaging in criminal activity and being incarcerated. A ten percentage point increase in the sex ratio in the cohort in which a man grew up (for example, from the naturally occurring sex ratio of 1.07 to 1.17) is associated with a 5% increase in the probability of being incarcerated via behavioural channels.
Here's the big concern though ... for much of this time there have been jobs to be had, even if domestic migration was required to find them. China's economy is longer growing at the same clip ...

That prospect is ... concerning.
  #63  
Old 10-13-2019, 08:26 PM
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As for redressing the sex ratio, both Finland and Russia had a big imbalance after WW2. Finland seems to be back to normal now, AFAIK, but Russia has not. Are they putting something in the vodka?
Serious answer ... An aging population with more men dying young, and yeah related to the vodka. More men drink more of it and die young.
Quote:
The population in Russia and the former USSR as a whole is older than that of the world. Most of these nations, including the most populous, also have low fertility rates compared with the global average. This skews the populationís gender ratio because older people are more likely to be female, while more younger people are male.

Younger men in the former Soviet Union also have an unusually high mortality rate, which has widened the populationís gender imbalance. One way to see this is to look at the life expectancy of men and women and the differences between those numbers.

Russian women born from 2010 to 2015 are expected to live to age 75.6, while Russian men are expected to live to age 64.2, a gap of 11.4 years. Other former USSR countries, such as Belarus, Ukraine and Latvia, have similarly high gaps, with many men in this area losing their lives to alcohol-related incidents, suicides and diseases, among other causes (as noted by demographer Murray Feshbach). The only nation with a higher life-expectancy gap between genders is war-torn Syria.

Alcoholism has long been a problem in the former USSR, especially for young men. A 2014 study in The Lancet medical journal found evidence that excess vodka use is a top killer in Russia, responsible for a disproportionate amount of deaths among Russian men. And a 2013 Pew Research Center survey found a stark gender divide on attitudes toward drinking in Russian society: 52% of women believe that drinking alcohol is morally unacceptable, compared with just 36% of men who say the same.
So China could promote heavy male drinking as a solution?
  #64  
Old 10-14-2019, 07:50 AM
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In the news today:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-50038657

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Newborn girl found alive in shallow grave in India
  #65  
Old 10-14-2019, 11:47 AM
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Serious answer ... An aging population with more men dying young, and yeah related to the vodka. More men drink more of it and die young
Yes Russia seems like a very bleak place indeed, I'm sure there are a lot of so called deaths of despair.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=CBbLa_1570129442
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  #66  
Old 10-17-2019, 03:59 PM
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But you canít selectively provide children of one sex except by selective abortion of the other sex after the sex of the fetus is known, or by post-natal selective murder. Since I doubt ultrasound was available for a lot of pregnancies in rural areas until recently, the statistics imply that millions of female babies were probably murdered.
This is absolutely correct. Some people have conjectured that if a family was allowed to have children until they had one son, then you would change the sex ratio to having more females, but that's false too. Every pregnancy is approximately 50-50. Actually a few more males are born, but that only compensates for higher male mortality. The only ways to create a different ratio are selective abortion and infanticide. Oh, I suppose offering the females for foreign might make a slight difference, but I hardly think there has been enough to change the ratio.
  #67  
Old 10-17-2019, 04:12 PM
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This is absolutely correct. Some people have conjectured that if a family was allowed to have children until they had one son, then you would change the sex ratio to having more females, but that's false too. Every pregnancy is approximately 50-50. Actually a few more males are born, but that only compensates for higher male mortality. The only ways to create a different ratio are selective abortion and infanticide. Oh, I suppose offering the females for foreign might make a slight difference, but I hardly think there has been enough to change the ratio.
Yep. It's bad enough to contemplate force abortions (choice is one thing, but to force a woman to have an abortion against her will is pretty bad), but the basic imbalance pretty much necessitates a lot of post delivery babies being euthanized, which is even worse. Then there is the problem with ghost children, which could mean you had a second child after the first one died and you didn't have the right paperwork or correct bribe for the local official.

It's just one of myriad things that the CCP has done that apparently skated under the radar of most people. It often amazes and saddens me to see some of the discussions on this board that focus so much on the US and ignore things happening in China. I'm actually hopeful that with this NBA thing happening that some people who have been asleep are finally waking up to at least some of what's been going on. I'm so glad John Oliver did that episode, as I've heard more discussion about this since then than the usual blank looks or shrugs.
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